Company Performance - Adobe (ADBE) stock has decreased by 33.5% over the past 12 months, while Intuit (INTU) has declined by 13.2% [1] - Over the past five years, Adobe's stock has lost 38.5% of its value, with significant losses occurring between July 2025 and January 2026 [4] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has had an annualized total return of 13.6% during the same period, highlighting Adobe's underperformance [4] Analyst Sentiment - Among 37 analysts covering Adobe, 20 currently rate it a Buy, a decrease from 25 three months ago, indicating a shift in sentiment [5] - The average 12-month target price for Adobe is $436.21, which is 50% above its current price, suggesting potential upside despite recent declines [5] Industry Outlook - Earnings for SaaS stocks in the S&P 500 are projected to grow by 14% this year, a decrease of 500 basis points from 2025, reflecting concerns about future growth [3] - Investor apprehension regarding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on SaaS companies is contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding stocks like Adobe and Intuit [2][6]

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is included on our list of the best undervalued wide moat stocks. Cautious Analyst Sentiment on Adobe (ADBE) Amid Intensifying Competition Across Core Creative Markets Copyright: photogearch / 123RF Stock Photo Amid intensifying competition pressures across its core creative markets, analyst sentiment surrounding Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) remains cautious. On January 14, 2026, Baird reduced its price target on the stock from $410.00 to $350.00, while reiterating a ‘Neutral’ ratin ...

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is one of the 10 Goldman Sachs undervalued stocks to invest in. Broader Analyst Sentiment Bullish on Adobe (ADBE) Amid Longer-Term Franchise Strength Adobe, software As of January 16, 2026, investor sentiment surrounding Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) remains cautiously constructive. Roughly 60% of analysts maintain their bullish tones with a consensus price target of $417.50, implying 37.30% upside. However, investor debate is growing around the company’s short-term catalysts and lon ...

Summary of Global Software Conference Call Industry Overview - The software industry is experiencing a significant shift in focus from macroeconomic concerns to the disruptive rise of AI, with investor discussions centered around whether an AI bubble exists and the potential impact of AI on enterprise software [1][11][15]. Key Themes for 2026 - **Valuation Reset**: Software valuations have halved over the past year, creating opportunities for investors to acquire high-quality stocks at discounted prices [14][31]. - **IT Spending Outlook**: Recent CIO surveys indicate one of the strongest IT spending outlooks since 2018, with expectations for a stable macro environment and lower interest rates supporting demand, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [3][13][23]. - **Generative AI Impact**: While Generative AI is a major topic, its actual revenue impact on software companies is still limited. Most companies are not yet seeing significant revenue from AI, and the focus is shifting towards company-specific opportunities [6][15][19]. Company Recommendations - **Buy Recommendations**: - **Oracle (ORCL)**: Strong core business with significant cloud transition and market share gains in IaaS/PaaS, driven by unique offerings [4][27]. - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Durable business with multiple growth levers and a reset valuation, positioned well for AI monetization [4][27]. - **SAP (SAP)**: Consistent double-digit revenue growth and margin improvement, despite AI cycle noise [4][27]. - **HubSpot (HUBS)**: Attractive entry point with strong SMB market positioning and potential benefits from AI adoption [4][27]. - **Cautionary Recommendations**: - **Salesforce (CRM)**: Concerns over underperformance and potential reliance on acquisitions to drive growth [4][29]. - **Snowflake (SNOW)**: Long-term growth concerns due to market saturation and competitive pressures [4][30]. - **Workday (WDAY)**: Growth deceleration and investor skepticism regarding AI's impact on its business model [4][28]. Financial Metrics - **Valuation Comparisons**: - Adobe (ADBE): Adjusted P/E ratios have decreased significantly, with a current valuation of 12.0x for 2026E [5][32]. - Microsoft (MSFT): Current P/E at 27.5x for 2026E, reflecting a reset from previous highs [5][32]. - Oracle (ORCL): Trading at a 0.9x PEG ratio, down from 1.4x a year ago, indicating a significant valuation adjustment [32]. Macro Considerations - **Economic Environment**: The macroeconomic landscape is expected to stabilize, with potential benefits from deregulation and tax cuts in the U.S. impacting SMB spending positively [6][23]. - **AI Adoption Timeline**: Enterprise adoption of AI is anticipated to take longer than expected, with significant visibility likely not occurring until 2027 or 2028 [22][23]. Conclusion - The software sector is at a pivotal moment, with significant valuation resets providing investment opportunities. However, the actual impact of AI on revenue generation remains uncertain, necessitating a cautious approach to investment in this space. The focus should be on companies with strong fundamentals and clear growth trajectories amidst the evolving landscape of AI and macroeconomic conditions [1][14][19].

Group 1 - EU retaliation tariffs are back in focus, reviving trade risk and raising concerns about second-order effects on supply chains and margins, particularly for globally exposed companies [1][3] - Industrials and multinationals with European exposure are likely to feel the pressure first when tariff narratives resurface [3] Group 2 - The introduction of credit card APR caps starting January 20 poses a risk for financials, raising questions about margin compression and reduced credit availability [4] - Stocks related to consumer lending and payments, such as SOFI, AXP, COF, SYF, and NU, are reacting to headline risks ahead of any finalized policy [4] Group 3 - The software sector is experiencing a risk-off rotation, with investors selling high-multiple growth names to de-risk portfolios amid policy uncertainty [5] - High-multiple software and data platforms like Snowflake, MongoDB, Salesforce, Adobe, and Datadog are under pressure as investors seek perceived safety and liquidity [5]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's stock is expected to approach multi-year lows due to recent AI-related concerns impacting the software industry [1] Company Summary - Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is facing downward pressure on its stock price as fears surrounding AI developments circulate within the software sector [1]

Its stock has struggled, down 17% year-to-date (YTD), underperforming the S&P 500's 0.25% gain, and also 38% below its 52-week high of $465.70, reflecting the market's pessimism. Valuation metrics show Adobe trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.7, well below its three-year historical average of 38.2 and the technology sector average of 32. This suggests the market sees less growth potential.Adobe is a leading software company specializing in creative and digital experience tools, includi ...

Core Viewpoint - Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is facing significant challenges in the competitive landscape of productivity software, particularly due to the rise of AI technologies, which has led to a 32% decline in its stock price over the past year [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Adobe's shares have decreased by 32% over the last year, indicating struggles in maintaining its market position [2]. - The company's software-as-a-service model is under threat from AI advancements, which has raised concerns about its growth potential [2]. - Goldman Sachs set a price target of $290 for Adobe shares and issued a Sell rating, highlighting competition as a major concern for high-end user growth [2]. Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Oppenheimer downgraded Adobe's rating from Outperform to Market Perform, citing the impact of AI on software stock valuations [2]. - Jim Cramer discussed insights from Ben Reitzes and Mellius Research regarding Adobe's challenges and competition in the market [3]. - There is a belief among some analysts that other AI stocks may offer better investment opportunities with higher returns and lower risks compared to Adobe [3].

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing its worst start to the year since 2022, with a 15% decline following an 11% drop last year, raising concerns about future growth prospects due to emerging AI competition [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - A group of Software as a Service (SaaS) stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has seen a significant downturn, marking the worst annual opening since 2022 [1]. - Intuit Inc., the parent company of TurboTax, experienced a 16% drop, while Adobe and Salesforce saw declines exceeding 11% [3]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is nearing historical highs, yet companies like ServiceNow Inc. are at multi-year lows, highlighting a widening gap in performance within the tech sector [9]. Group 2: AI Competition - The launch of Anthropic's AI collaboration tool "Claude Cowork" has intensified fears of disruptive competition in the software market, reminiscent of concerns from 2025 [3][8]. - Claude Cowork allows users to automate tasks such as creating spreadsheets and generating reports, significantly enhancing productivity for both programmers and non-programmers [4][6]. - The tool's rapid adoption has led to a notable increase in its user base, with a 12% rise in global daily active users since last month [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are losing confidence in holding software stocks, believing there are no catalysts for valuation recovery despite lower price multiples [8]. - Concerns about the attractiveness of AI products from established software companies are growing, as many have not demonstrated significant revenue impact from their AI offerings [9]. - The expected profit growth for software and services companies in the S&P 500 is projected to slow to 14% in 2026, down from an estimated 19% in 2025 [9]. Group 4: Valuation Trends - Software companies are seeing their valuations decline, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, the lowest in history compared to an average of over 55 times in the past decade [10]. - The traditional high valuation of software companies, based on subscription models and recurring revenue, is being challenged by the emergence of AI agents capable of performing tasks more efficiently [13].

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs released its 2026 Economic and Financial Market Outlook report, indicating strong economic momentum at the start of the year and dismissing widespread recession concerns [1] - The bank acknowledged policy shocks in 2025 that impacted real wages and labor supply but described the slowdown as orderly rather than disruptive [2] - Consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is aligned with long-term growth trends due to rising equity and home prices [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs views last year's challenges as temporary and policy-driven, with inflationary impacts from tariffs considered a one-time price-level shift [3] - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 2.9% at the beginning of the year to approximately 2.3% by year-end, with two Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated [3] Growth and Investment Trends - The bank favors artificial intelligence (AI) as a key growth area, expecting sustained technology investment to support demand and contribute significantly to GDP without excessive borrowing [4] - Corporate balance sheets are reported to be healthy, with non-financial business debt declining as a share of GDP [4] Recession Probability - Goldman Sachs assigns a 25% probability of a recession in 2026, which is lower than the 33% consensus, indicating strong expected earnings growth despite high index-level valuations [5] Undervalued Stocks - The article discusses 10 undervalued stocks identified by Goldman Sachs, based on their 13-F filings and forward price-to-earnings multiples [7] - The methodology involved filtering stocks with the lowest forward price-to-earnings multiples and ranking them by the number of hedge funds holding stakes [7][8] Company-Specific Insights - **T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS)**: Forward P/E multiple of 15.72x, with 81 hedge fund holders. Bernstein lowered its price target from $265 to $245, citing increased competition in the telecom sector [9][10] - **AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T)**: Forward P/E multiple of 10.63x, with 84 hedge fund holders. Bernstein reduced its price target from $31.00 to $30.00, highlighting heightened competition and challenges in the sector [13][14] - **Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)**: Forward P/E multiple of 12.58x, with 88 hedge fund holders. Investor sentiment is cautiously constructive, with a consensus price target of $417.50, indicating a potential upside of 37.30% [17][18]