Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026, based on a 20x PE valuation [3][5]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand internationalization strategy [2][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB respectively, slightly down from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector, but new store formats and product iterations are anticipated to support stable growth in the mid-term [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 62,356 in 2023 to 92,805 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 15,367 million RMB in 2023 to 21,369 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023, tapering to 10.6% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million RMB in 2023 to 15,931 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 52.4% in 2024, followed by a decline of 15.5% in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 62% over the forecast period, while net margin is projected to fluctuate between 16.4% and 22.0% [4][12]. Brand Performance Insights - The main brand is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize in the mid-term due to improvements in e-commerce and new store formats [9]. - The Fila brand showed improvement in Q4 and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to recent brand and product optimizations [9]. - Other brands, particularly Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4, and are expected to continue outperforming the overall sportswear industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Anta Sports (02020) is expected to meet market expectations for retail sales performance in 2025, with the Fila brand and other brands showing slightly better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In Q4, Fila's retail sales recorded a low single-digit growth year-on-year, aligning with market expectations for the full year [1] - Fila's Classic business experienced high single-digit growth in Q4, while Kids and Fusion segments saw low single-digit growth [1] - Other brands achieved a year-on-year retail sales growth of 35% to 40% in Q4, with full-year growth reaching 45% to 50%, exceeding the guidance of over 40% [1] Group 2: Overall Company Performance - Overall, the performance of Fila and other brands exceeded expectations, while Anta's main brand sales were affected by a warm winter [1] - Anta's management displayed a cautious and pragmatic outlook for 2026, focusing on healthy inventory management and control of retail discounts [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup reiterated a "Buy" rating for Anta and set a target price of HKD 112.7, considering the current valuation attractive [1]

整体而言，Fila和其他品牌的表现超预期，而安踏主品牌受暖冬影响销售有所放缓。花旗指出，安踏管 理层对2026年的展望表现出谨慎务实的态度，并将重点放在健康的库存管理和零售折扣控制。 该行指出，2025年第四季度Fila零售销售同比录得中个位数增长，全年增长符合市场预期。Fila的Classic 业务在第四季度增长高个位数，而Kids和Fusion分别录得低个位数增长。其他品牌方面，第四季度零售 销售同比增长35%至40%，全年增长达45%至50%，超出40%以上的指引。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，安踏体育(02020)在2025年零售销售表现符合市场预期。第四季 度，Fila品牌及其他品牌的增长表现略胜预期。花旗重申对安踏的"买入"评级，并将目标价定为112.7港 元，认为公司当前估值具吸引力。 ...

Summary of Anta Sports Products Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$233.1 billion / $29.9 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$273.0 billion / $35.0 billion - **Current Price**: HK$82.55 - **Target Price**: HK$108.00 (Upside: 30.8%) [1][4] Key Financial Performance - **4Q25 Results**: Mixed performance in line with market expectations - Anta brand: -LSD% YoY decline (slower than Q3's +LSD%) - Fila: +MSD% YoY growth (up from +LSD% in Q3) - Other brands: 35-40% YoY growth, decelerated from Q3 due to a higher comparison base [1][3] - **Management Confidence**: Strong cost control and confidence in achieving 2025 OPM targets despite mixed results [1][3] 2026 Outlook - **Consumption Environment**: Expected to be unexciting, with a focus on positive growth for Anta and sustained growth for Fila [2][3] - **OPM Pressure**: Anta and Fila's OPM may decline YoY due to increased investments in a significant sports year [2][30] - **Inventory Management**: Near-term focus on inventory digestion, leveraging promotions ahead of Chinese New Year [23] Brand-Specific Insights Anta Brand - **Sales Performance**: -LSD% YoY growth attributed to weak consumption, warmer weather, and late Chinese New Year [23] - **Discount Strategy**: Maintained disciplined discounts; offline discount stable YoY, online discount improved [23] - **Inventory Level**: Slightly over 5x in 4Q25, consistent with previous quarters [23] - **2026 Strategy**: Focus on running, training, and basketball; new product launches in emerging categories [23] Fila Brand - **Sales Growth**: +MSD% YoY in 4Q25, strong online performance at +LDD% YoY [23] - **Inventory Level**: Maintained slightly over 5x in 4Q25 [23] - **Discounts**: Offline discount at 27% (1-2pp deeper YoY), online discount at 45% [23] Descente and Kolon - **Growth Expectations**: Anticipated growth moderation in 2026 as the base gets higher [29] - **Brand Positioning**: Focus on brand power and product innovation rather than just store expansion [29] MAIA ACTIVE - **Growth**: +25-30% YoY in 4Q25, viewed as still in an incubation phase [27] - **Focus**: Building long-term brand mind-share and product differentiation [27] M&A Strategy - **Criteria for Future Acquisitions**: 1. Strategic fit with Anta's overall strategy 2. Value creation potential 3. Financial discipline with clear return profiles [28] Market Positioning - **Competitive Landscape**: Anta continues to outperform key peers like Li Ning and Pou Sheng in 4Q25 [1][3] - **Long-term Growth**: Positive outlook on long-term growth supported by multi-brand strategy and cost control [3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025: Rmb 79,275 million - 2026: Rmb 86,350.4 million - 2027: Rmb 93,413.1 million [7][18] - **EPS Projections**: - 2025: Rmb 4.69 - 2026: Rmb 5.09 - 2027: Rmb 5.83 [7][18] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain a Buy rating with a target price of HK$108, reflecting a positive long-term outlook despite short-term challenges [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17] Core Views - In Q4 2025, Anta Group showed steady growth, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, FILA achieving mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands recording a 35-40% positive growth. For the entire year of 2025, the main brand also saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA and other brands achieved 45-50% positive growth [2][4][5] - The overall performance of Anta Group is stable, with the main brand's growth affected by the broader market environment, while FILA's growth accelerated against the trend. Other brands like Descente and Kolon continued to show high growth, aligning with management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [4][15] Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Anta Group's overall growth in Q4 2025 was steady, with other brands maintaining high growth rates. The main brand's growth slowed sequentially, while FILA's growth accelerated. Online discounts improved, and inventory levels were healthy. The brand's channel upgrades and overseas expansion are progressing simultaneously [3][5][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's revenue in Q4 2025 declined slightly, with a sales-to-inventory ratio slightly above 5 months. Online discounts narrowed year-on-year, and channel upgrades and overseas expansion are ongoing. The Champion series is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in revenue by the end of 2025 [6][8] - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits in Q4, with a healthy sales-to-inventory ratio and improved online discounts. Offline sales saw high single-digit growth, while online sales grew in the low double digits [9][10][11] - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4, with Descente growing approximately 25-30% and Kolon growing around 55% [12][13] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of +10.7%, +5.5%, and +11.9% [17][18] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a 20-21X PE for 2026 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17]. Core Views - Anta Group showed steady growth in Q4 2025, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, while FILA recorded mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands achieved a growth rate of 35-40% [2][4][5]. - The overall performance of the group aligns with the management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [3][5]. - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the global sports market through its multi-brand strategy and diversified brand matrix in China [4][15]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA's growth accelerated, and other brands continued their high growth trajectory [2][5]. - The online discount rates for Anta and FILA improved, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue declined slightly in Q4, with a year-end inventory-to-sales ratio slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [6][7]. - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and improved online discount rates [9][10][11]. - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, achieved revenue growth of 35-40%, with Descente's revenue growth around 40% for the year [12][13]. Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts downward due to macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [17][18]. - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-21x for 2026 [4][17]. Market Positioning - Anta's positioning in the mass market makes it more susceptible to external economic pressures, while FILA and other brands are expected to continue their growth despite market challenges [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to have stable operations in 2025, with a focus on long-term multi-brand performance [1] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in 2026, despite a slight decline in net profit margin [3] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Fila brand and other brands, with significant growth expected in the outdoor segment [2][3] Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the late timing of the Chinese New Year [1] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] Fila Brand Performance - Fila brand revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a faster growth rate compared to Q3 [2] - The report anticipates double-digit growth for Fila's e-commerce sales during major promotional events [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands under Anta are projected to see a revenue growth of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, with strong brand presence in the high-end outdoor market [2] - The report indicates that Maia Active is also expected to perform well in Q4 2025 [2] Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 785.64 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% increase from 2024 [3] - The expected net profit for 2026 is forecasted to be 14 billion yuan, representing a 6.4% growth [3] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 131.94 billion yuan, 140.35 billion yuan, and 159.37 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 15 times [3]

2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 安踏品牌：短期消费环境波动叠加春节滞后等因素，Q4 安踏流水波动，库存质量 预计仍然健康。2025Q4 安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数，我们判断 Q4 安踏流水 波动一方面原因系 Q4 国内消费环境较弱，另一方面原因系 2026 年春节较晚导致 了年货消费滞后。分渠道来看，我们判断电商销售或略有增长，延续 2025 年前三 季度的表现；线下渠道中我们判断童装销售压力对比成人或较大，主要原因系童 装销售的假期属性更强。营运方面，我们预计截至 2025Q4 末安踏品牌库销比略 高于 5，整体处于健康水平。 展望 2026 年：我们判断电商业务销售对比 2025 年或有望改善，同时线下渠道持 续推进差异化门店建设（包括安踏冠军店、灯塔店等），产品端继续发力 PG7 系列 产品、马赫系列以及竞速 C 系列，多举措下有望提振安踏品牌表现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ANTA Sports [2][5] Core Insights - ANTA Brand experienced its first low-single-digit negative sell-through growth in 4Q25 after 11 consecutive quarters of positive growth, primarily due to offline sales decline and challenges in the children's category, although it still achieved a full-year low-single-digit growth target [3][10] - FILA Brand achieved mid-single-digit sell-through growth in both 4Q25 and for the full year 2025, with increased discounts and a stock-to-sales ratio slightly above 5x [3][10] - Management is cautious about 2026, planning increased investments in brand and marketing due to significant sporting events such as the Milan Winter Olympics, World Cup, and Asian Games [3][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 78.26 billion, RMB 85.00 billion, and RMB 92.04 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 8.6%, and 8.3% respectively [5][12] - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is expected to be RMB 12.98 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 16.24 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [5][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 16.0x, 14.5x, and 12.8x [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [6] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Anta's retail performance showed resilience despite a weak market, with Anta brand and Fila brand revenues experiencing low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth respectively, while other brands saw a growth of 35-40% [1][2] - The company continues to advance its multi-brand strategy and global expansion, launching innovative products and entering new markets, including a three-year plan for Southeast Asia and partnerships in Europe [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue declined slightly, while Fila brand revenue improved to mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 35-40% [1][2] - For the full year, Anta brand and Fila brand revenues grew low single-digit and mid-single-digit respectively, while other brands achieved a growth of 45-50%, leading to a double-digit overall revenue growth for the year [1] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports is recognized as a leading multi-brand sports group, with clear brand positioning and steady expansion [3] - The company launched several innovative products and technologies in 2025, including a fluorine-free fabric and an AI innovation platform [3] Global Expansion - Anta is focusing on expanding its main brand overseas, with plans for a thousand stores in Southeast Asia and initiatives in Europe and the Middle East [3][4] - The Fila brand has initiated a three-year partnership in tennis, enhancing its professional sports image [3] Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 down by 1%-3% due to short-term uncertainties, projecting EPS of 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 [4]