Summary of ANTA Sports Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ANTA Sports Products (2020.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$30,594 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$81.40 - **Price Target**: HK$128.00, implying a 57% upside Key Points Sales Performance - **Sales Trend**: Sales in 4QTD are on track with management's guidance, with expectations for group sales growth to accelerate in 4Q25 compared to 3Q25, driven by a higher base [2][10] - **E-commerce Growth**: ANTA's e-commerce sales growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 following adjustments [4] Brand Performance - **ANTA Brand**: Retail GMV has surpassed Rmb40 billion, with running category contributing ~45% of total sales, growing at over 10% [4] - **FILA Brand**: Retail GMV has exceeded Rmb30 billion, with sales growth driven by product assortment adjustments and a focus on tennis and golf, which together account for ~10% of sales [5] - **Descente**: Growth is expected to moderate after approaching Rmb10 billion retail GMV but remains robust [6] Product Strategy - **New Formats**: Introduction of new store formats such as Guanjun, Superstore, and Sneakerverse is anticipated to drive growth [4] - **FILA's Marketing**: Increased marketing efforts around tennis events and collaborations with FILA Global are planned [5] Financial Outlook - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenue growth from Rmb70,826 million in 2024 to Rmb93,086 million by 2027 [8] - **EBITDA Growth**: Projected EBITDA growth from Rmb17,837 million in 2024 to Rmb24,770 million by 2027 [8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS expected to increase from Rmb4.27 in 2024 to Rmb5.62 by 2027 [8] Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: FILA ranked no.1 in e-commerce channels, with strong growth in livestream channels [10] - **Discounting Strategy**: FILA has implemented deeper discounts in 2025 for destocking, with potential pricing improvements to drive operating profit growth [5] Risks - **Upside Risks**: Stronger economic growth, continued FILA growth momentum, and successful reengineering of the ANTA brand [13] - **Downside Risks**: Weak sales and earnings growth in 1H24, continued macroeconomic weakness, and unfavorable shifts in fashion trends [13] Valuation - **Valuation Methodology**: Base case value based on a 23x target P/E multiple on the 2026 EPS estimate, indicating continued market share gains [11] Additional Insights - **Market Cap and Trading**: Average daily trading value is US$120 million, with a stable product return rate year-over-year [10] - **Stock Ratings**: ANTA Sports is rated as "Overweight" by Morgan Stanley, indicating a positive outlook compared to the industry average [8][29] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding ANTA Sports, highlighting its performance, strategic initiatives, financial outlook, and market dynamics.

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a strong Q3 performance with a 30% year-on-year revenue growth and a 22% increase in operating profit, exceeding market expectations [1] - All four major regional markets achieved double-digit revenue growth, with the Greater China region seeing a remarkable 47% increase [1] - Amer has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 from 20%-21% to 23%-24%, reflecting its effective global multi-brand operational capabilities [1] Group 2: Anta Brand Outlook - The market has adjusted its expectations for Anta's main brand revenue growth, leading to a decline in stock price since August [2] - Revenue growth for Anta's main brand has decreased from high single digits in Q1 to low single digits in Q2 and Q3, prompting downward revisions of annual revenue forecasts [2] - Despite short-term pressures due to overall consumer sluggishness and adjustments in offline channels and e-commerce teams, improvements in the main brand's performance are anticipated starting in 2026 [2] Group 3: Fila and Other Brands - Fila has shown robust growth, ranking first in Tmall's sports and outdoor sales, while Descente and KOLON are expected to continue their high growth momentum [3] - The recent Double Eleven sales event indicated strong performance for Fila, Descente, and KOLON, with Fila projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth for the year [3] - Earnings forecasts have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 4.69, 5.29, and 6.02 RMB respectively, and a target price of 112.89 HKD based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience through its multi-brand strategy, with Amer Sports reporting a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.69, 5.29, and 6.02 RMB respectively, down from previous estimates [3][9] - The target price is set at 112.89 HKD, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2023A: 62,356 - 2024A: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,573 - 2026E: 86,489 - 2027E: 95,347 - Year-on-year growth rates: 16.2%, 13.6%, 10.9%, 10.1%, 10.2% [3][12] - Operating Profit (in million RMB): - 2023A: 15,367 - 2024A: 16,595 - 2025E: 18,143 - 2026E: 20,123 - 2027E: 22,545 - Year-on-year growth rates: 36.8%, 8.0%, 9.3%, 10.9%, 12.0% [3][12] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (in million RMB): - 2023A: 10,236 - 2024A: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,175 - 2026E: 14,846 - 2027E: 16,886 - Year-on-year growth rates: 34.9%, 52.4%, -15.5%, 12.7%, 13.7% [3][12] - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2023A: 3.65 - 2024A: 5.56 - 2025E: 4.69 - 2026E: 5.29 - 2027E: 6.02 [3][12] - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 62.6% - 2024A: 62.2% - 2025E: 61.9% - 2026E: 62.2% - 2027E: 62.6% [3][12] - Net Margin: - 2023A: 16.4% - 2024A: 22.0% - 2025E: 16.8% - 2026E: 17.2% - 2027E: 17.7% [3][12] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 18.3% - 2024A: 23.4% - 2025E: 17.3% - 2026E: 17.1% - 2027E: 17.0% [3][12]

Summary of Anta Sports Products Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) - **Related Company**: Amer Sports Key Industry Insights - **Amer Sports Performance**: Amer Sports reported a strong 3Q performance with an adjusted EPS of $0.33, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.25. Revenue increased by 29.7% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 27.2% [1][3] - **Greater China Growth**: The Greater China market showed robust growth at 47% year-over-year, up from 42% in the previous quarter, with notable performance from brands like Salomon and Wilson [2][11] - **Arc'teryx Recovery**: The Arc'teryx brand experienced a recovery in Q4 after a slow start, attributed to cooler weather, which positively impacted sales [2][3] Financial Outlook - **Guidance Update**: Amer Sports raised its FY25 sales and EPS guidance, although the guidance for Q4 is slightly below consensus forecasts [1][3] - **Anta's Financials**: Anta's adjusted EPS is projected to be between $0.88 and $0.92, higher than previous estimates. The anticipated associate income from Amer to Anta is approximately RMB 1,170 million, representing about 9% of Anta's net income [10][11] Market Dynamics - **Outdoor Segment Trends**: The outdoor segment is expected to peak in Q4, with brands that have strong market presence likely to capitalize on peak season sales. However, some outdoor brands are showing signs of growth moderation and increased discounting due to competitive pressures [4][5] - **Consumer Preferences**: There is a sustained consumer preference for outdoor activities, leading to a shift from casual wear to outdoor apparel [3][4] Risks and Challenges - **Anta Brand Performance**: Concerns exist regarding the muted growth outlook for the Anta brand, particularly during the Double-11 shopping festival [5][21] - **Competitive Pressures**: Some outdoor brands are facing deeper discounting and growth slowdowns, which could impact overall market dynamics [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - **Store Expansion Plans**: Arc'teryx plans to close some stores in China while opening larger, more productive direct-to-consumer (DTC) stores, with expectations for net openings in Greater China into 2026 [13] - **Salomon's Growth**: Salomon's footwear segment continues to show strong growth, contributing positively to the outdoor segment's performance [12] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Price Target**: Anta is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$115, indicating a potential upside of 43.6% from the current price of HK$80.10 [20][22] - **Valuation Metrics**: The valuation is based on a 21x P/E for 2027E, discounted back to mid-2026E at 11% [20] Conclusion - The overall outlook for Anta Sports Products remains positive, driven by strong performance from associated brands and a favorable market environment for outdoor activities, despite some near-term challenges and competitive pressures.

Core Insights - Anta's brand has lowered its full-year revenue guidance to low single-digit growth due to a combination of factors including weak consumer confidence and increased competition [1] - FILA and other brands maintain their full-year guidance, driven by a multi-brand strategy focusing on specialization and high-end growth [2] - The overall sportswear industry is expected to accelerate growth in 2026, with rising penetration rates and easing discount pressures [4] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand achieved low single-digit revenue growth, showing slight improvement from Q2 2025, with offline and children's lines growing in low single digits and online sales growing in high single digits [1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for Anta's brand was slightly above five months at the end of the quarter, indicating a healthy level [1] - Anta's management has adopted a conservative strategy for the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, leading to a downward revision of the full-year revenue expectation from mid-single-digit to low single-digit growth [1] Group 2: FILA and Other Brands - FILA brand achieved low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, with online sales showing high single-digit growth while offline sales faced low single-digit declines [2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for FILA was approximately six months at the end of the quarter, expected to return to a healthy level of five to six months post-promotional events [2] - Other brands under the company saw an overall growth rate of about 50% in Q3 2025, with DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT achieving significant growth rates of over 30% and 70% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The Southeast Asian market for Anta has seen nearly 80%-90% growth this year, primarily driven by same-store sales growth, despite not opening many new stores [1] - The company plans to increase its store count in Southeast Asia to 1,000 within three years, aiming for overseas revenue contribution to reach 15% within five years [1] - The overall sportswear industry is projected to see accelerated growth in 2026, with expectations of improved customer spending and reduced discount pressures [4]

研究报告 Research Report 17 Nov 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 近况更新：随着天气转冷运动鞋服流水压力明显缓解，2026 年行业增长或加速 Recent Updates: Update: Sportswear and Footwear Sell-Through Pressure Eases as Weather Cools; Industry Growth Could Accelerate in 2026 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$82.10 目标价 HK$103.00 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$230.47bn / US$29.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$135.10mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (% ...

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data showing low single-digit growth for Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Anta brand retail showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, aligning with trends in the mass sports market, with channel adjustments expected to drive future growth [1] - FILA brand retail performance was relatively weak with low single-digit growth year-on-year, and inventory levels were noted to be high [1] Group 2: Discount and Inventory Management - Anta is expected to face weaker terminal discounts in the short term, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [1] - For FILA, offline discounts are expected to remain stable, with an anticipated improvement in the inventory-to-sales ratio [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its brand matrix through acquisitions, with previous acquisitions like Jack Wolfskin contributing to long-term growth potential [1] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.1 billion, 14.6 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [1] - The company's share buyback plan continues, providing short-term support for the stock price, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data, showing low single-digit growth for the Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [2][4]. - The retail performance of Anta is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal discounts, although the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [6]. - FILA's retail performance is relatively weak, with high inventory levels, and it is anticipated that discounts will increase during the upcoming Double Eleven sales to clear stock [6]. - Short-term pressures are expected to continue affecting gross profit margin (GPM) and operating profit margin (OPM), while mid-term growth will rely on store adjustments and international expansion [6]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 131 billion, 146 billion, and 161 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail shows low single-digit growth, aligning with market trends, while other brands are performing significantly better [2][4]. - FILA brand retail is underperforming with high inventory levels, and adjustments are expected to improve inventory turnover [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are 70.83 billion for 2024, 78.63 billion for 2025, 86.40 billion for 2026, and 93.76 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 14%, 11%, 10%, and 9% respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 4.25 for 2024, increasing to 5.74 by 2027 [8].

Core Insights - Anta's retail sales for its main brands, including Anta and FILA, showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while other brands experienced a significant increase in retail sales by 45% to 50% [1] - The company opened over 300 new stores nationwide during the National Day holiday, including various specialized store formats to enhance its market presence [1] - Anta has made technological advancements with the launch of a new high-performance waterproof material and a new warming technology derived from aerospace technology, aiming for sustainability in its product offerings [2] Retail Performance - Anta brand products' retail sales grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year - FILA brand products also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales - Other brands under Anta experienced a retail sales increase of 45% to 50% [1] Store Expansion - Anta opened over 300 new stores during the National Day period, including: - 39 Anta flagship stores - 30 Anta champion stores focused on outdoor sports - 24 super Anta stores covering a full range of products - 41 Anta lighthouse stores offering professional sports products - 8 Anta outlet stores creating a scene-based outlet experience - 4 Anta collection stores for cross-style branding - 11 Anta children's stores for youth sports - 4 ANTA KIDS PARKs designed as scene-based outlet children's sports parks - 55 ANTA Linglong stores dedicated to children's exclusive IP [1] Technological Innovations - Anta launched China's first self-developed high-performance fluorine-free waterproof and moisture-permeable material, "Fluorine-Free Anta Membrane," in collaboration with Donghua University - The new generation of "Storm Armor" was also introduced, marking a breakthrough in the global high-performance waterproof fabric sector - Anta aims to increase the proportion of sustainable products to 50% by 2030 and plans to sell over 500,000 units of the new "Storm Armor" by 2026 [1] Market Strategy - Anta partnered with Wuhan Textile University to launch a new warming technology, "Anta Six-Degree Core Technology," which has been successfully commercialized for consumer use [2] - The HLSTYLED global tour reached major cities like New York, Shanghai, and Paris, with a successful event held in Paris, indicating Anta's strategic expansion into the European market - Anta is collaborating with JD Sports for offline sales and expanding its online presence across five European countries [2] Financial Outlook - The company adjusted its profit forecast but maintains a "buy" rating, citing long-term value supported by multi-brand strategies, operational efficiency improvements, and global expansion - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x [2]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports' ESG rating was upgraded from A to AA by MSCI, despite facing ecological damage claims related to its subsidiary, Arc'teryx, for an event in Tibet [2][3][4]. Group 1: ESG Rating and Environmental Issues - Anta Sports' MSCI ESG rating was upgraded to AA on October 17, 2023, following a previous downgrade to B in January 2023 [2][7]. - The upgrade comes amidst controversy over the ecological impact of a fireworks event sponsored by Arc'teryx, which has been labeled as "mountain blasting" by netizens [3][4]. - Anta Sports has not publicly detailed its plans for ecological compensation and restoration following the incident [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta and FILA brand products recorded low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - Anta Sports' revenue grew from 355.12 billion to 708.26 billion from 2020 to 2024, nearly doubling in four years, while net profit increased by approximately 202% during the same period [8]. - Sales expenses grew significantly, reaching approximately 1,087.4 billion over five and a half years, accounting for 35% of total revenue of 3,102.17 billion [11]. Group 3: Inventory and Operational Challenges - Anta Sports is experiencing inventory buildup and operational challenges, with an average inventory turnover period of 136 days in the first half of 2025, compared to 61 days for Li Ning [11][12]. - The company's direct-to-consumer (DTC) reform initiated in 2020 has led to increased inventory levels as it transitioned inventory management from distributors to the brand [12].