Core Viewpoint - Anta's Q3 2025 operational data shows stable performance for its main brands, with outdoor brands continuing strong growth despite a weakening retail environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands both experienced low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, indicating stable performance [1] - Other brands saw a significant growth of 45-50%, maintaining strong momentum [1] - FILA's Q3 2025 revenue growth was low single digits, impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but still outperformed the industry average [2] Group 2: Operational Metrics - Anta's inventory-to-sales ratio is slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy range [1] - FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio is approximately 6 months due to increased seasonal stocking, expected to return to 5-6 months by year-end [2] - Anta's operating profit margin is maintained in the range of 20%-25%, while FILA's is around 25% [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Anta is advancing new business formats, with the Anta Champion Store achieving over 100% completion rate and plans for accelerated development in 2026 [1] - FILA has launched a tennis strategy, signing a top Chinese tennis player as a spokesperson and becoming the exclusive sponsor of the China Open [2] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, aiming to open approximately 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company has slightly lowered its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.22 billion, 14.66 billion, and 15.92 billion yuan respectively [4] - The anticipated profit growth for 2025 is 11% when excluding a one-time gain from Amer Sports [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its unique multi-brand matrix with significant growth potential [4]

机构：招商证券 研究员：刘丽/王梓旭 25Q3 安踏主品牌和FILA 流水均低单位数增长（线上增速更快），其他品牌45%-50%增长。公司持续探 索渠道新业态&优化运营效率；优化FILA 产品结构；拓展户外细分赛道&增加核心商圈覆盖范围，公 司下调安踏主品牌全年收入指引至低单位数增长（其他品牌不变），我们小幅下调盈利预测，预计25- 27 年公司净利润131.3 亿元、147.7 亿元、164.6 亿元，同比增速为-16%、12%、11%，当前市值对应 25PE16.5X、26PE15X，维持强烈推荐评级。 25Q3 安踏主品牌流水同比增长低单位数，FILA 流水同比增长低单位数，其他品牌流水增长45%-50% （不含2024 年1 月之后加入公司品牌）。 安踏主品牌流水表现不及预期： 1）流水：安踏线下低单位数增长，线上高单位数增长。 1）流水：FILA 大货中单位数增长，电商高单位数增长；2）折扣与库存：线下约74 折，线上约58 折， 基本与二季度持平。库存6个月（备货+天气偏暖），预计年底会维持在5-6 个月健康水平。 3）品牌营销：9 月正式发布网球战略和产品策略，续约中国网球公开赛并升级为独家官方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Insights - Anta Sports' two main brands are performing steadily, while new brands continue to show high growth momentum [10] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta brand down to low single-digit growth due to a weak retail environment [10] - The multi-brand matrix of the company is seen as a rare resource with significant growth potential in the long term [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 789.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 858.1 billion RMB - FY2027E: 923.0 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts show a significant increase in FY2023 with 102.4 billion RMB, peaking at 159.2 billion RMB in FY2027 [9][20] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 62.6% in FY2023 to 63.9% in FY2027 [9] Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a growth rate of 45-50% [10] - FILA's growth was impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but it is expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth for the year [10] - Other brands like Descente and Maia Active are showing strong growth, with Descente growing approximately 30% and Maia Active around 45% [10] Market Expansion - Anta Sports is expanding its overseas market with a target of reaching 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [10] - The company is focusing on brand building and market cultivation in strategic markets like Europe and the US [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company emphasizes quality over quantity in its operations, maintaining a profit margin target of 20-25% for the Anta brand and around 25% for FILA [10] - The report indicates a slight decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current weak retail environment [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anta Sports [10][11]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, while other brands saw a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining the forecast for other brands [10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to CNY 13.13 billion, CNY 14.77 billion, and CNY 16.46 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [10]. Revenue Performance - Anta's main brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline sales growing at a low single-digit rate and online sales at a higher single-digit rate [2]. - FILA's revenue also grew at a low single-digit rate, with online sales performing better [3]. - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, reported substantial revenue growth rates of 30%, 70%, and 45% respectively [4][5][6]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key business districts [10]. - Anta has announced a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and is expanding its presence in the U.S. and European markets [2]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports for 2025-2027 is CNY 78.06 billion, CNY 86.73 billion, and CNY 95.55 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at CNY 4.64, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.5 for 2025 and 15 for 2026 [10][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 24.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 41% [6]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately CNY 235.9 billion [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance was slightly below expectations due to external factors such as weather, but the multi-brand strategy remains a cornerstone for long-term growth [4][6] - The company has shown stable growth in its main brand and FILA, while other brands have experienced significant growth, particularly in the outdoor segment [6] - The company is expanding its offline presence with new store formats, which are expected to drive future growth [6] - The multi-brand strategy is central to the company's operations, with recent acquisitions and partnerships aimed at enhancing market presence [6] - The establishment of a sneaker design program in collaboration with universities aims to foster innovation and talent in the industry [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 62,356 million RMB (2023), 70,826 million RMB (2024), 78,015 million RMB (2025E), 86,289 million RMB (2026E), and 95,069 million RMB (2027E) [5][7] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 16.23% (2023), 13.58% (2024), 10.15% (2025E), 10.61% (2026E), and 10.17% (2027E) [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 13,443 million RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.81%, followed by growth of 14.96% in 2026 and 14.06% in 2027 [5][6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 17.90% in 2025, decreasing from 25.27% in 2024 [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.82 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products Limited (2020 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 110.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.3% from the closing price of HKD 87.80 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance showed weak revenue growth, leading management to lower the full-year guidance and adjust profit forecasts downwards. The main brand, Anta, is expected to see low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands maintain mid-single-digit and over 40% growth expectations respectively [3][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 1-3% due to a slowdown in industry recovery and increased competition, resulting in a 5-10% decrease in net profit projections for the same period [9][10]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the multi-brand strategy and operational resilience in a complex environment are viewed positively [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years ending December 31 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 - 2024: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,080 - 2026E: 85,159 - 2027E: 91,473 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline from 16.2% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2027 [4][21]. - Net profit projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 - 2024: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,320 - 2026E: 14,804 - 2027E: 15,927 - The expected earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 3.57 in 2023, increasing to 5.50 by 2027 [4][21]. Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with inventory turnover slightly above five months. The company is optimizing its channels, having completed around 100 store renovations [9][10]. - FILA's revenue growth has slowed to low single digits, with inventory turnover increasing to about six months due to preparations for the Double Eleven shopping festival [9][10]. - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, continue to show strong growth, with respective revenue increases of approximately 30% and 70% in the third quarter [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports has demonstrated resilience in a challenging retail environment, achieving positive growth in its core brands while other competitors face declines [1][2][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Anta and FILA brands achieved low single-digit positive growth in retail sales, while other brands (excluding those added after January 1, 2024) saw retail sales increase by 45%-50% year-on-year [1] - The company maintained stable discount rates for Anta and FILA brands, ensuring a healthy inventory turnover ratio, reflecting a focus on brand value and profitability rather than just scale [2][3] - The introduction of new products, such as the PG7 series and C202 marathon shoes, has driven sales growth in high-end performance categories, showcasing Anta's effective product strategy [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall retail growth in the apparel and footwear sector has slowed, with the sportswear segment facing increased competition and pressure, leading to a general market weakness [1][4] - International brands, including Nike, are experiencing revenue declines in the Greater China region, highlighting the contrasting performance of Anta in the same market [2] - The sportswear market is shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, with Anta's multi-brand strategy proving effective in navigating market fluctuations [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Anta's growth logic remains sustainable, with increasing penetration rates in outdoor and running categories, supported by a comprehensive multi-brand and pricing strategy [4] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing trends in the sportswear industry, with a focus on innovation and global brand integration [4][5] - Anta's strong performance in e-commerce platforms, particularly during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicates robust competitive strength across its brand portfolio [5]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported positive growth in retail sales for both Anta and FILA brands, with other brands experiencing a significant increase of 45%-50% year-on-year [1] - The sports apparel industry faced challenges in Q3 2025, with a general slowdown in retail sales growth, particularly in the clothing and footwear categories [1] - Anta Sports maintained a strong market position through a well-defined brand matrix and precise category strategies, outperforming industry averages [1][2] Industry Overview - The overall retail sales growth in Q3 2025 slowed compared to Q2, with the apparel and footwear sector showing only low single-digit growth, indicating market pressures [1] - The sports segment saw a divergence in performance, with sports apparel outperforming sports footwear, particularly in running shoes, while basketball and skate shoes faced ongoing challenges [1][2] Company Performance - Anta Sports' ability to sustain solid fundamentals in a weak consumer environment is attributed to its unique business model focused on "brand + retail" and its multi-brand management capabilities [2] - The company successfully maintained stable discount rates for Anta and FILA brands while keeping inventory levels healthy, reflecting a strategic focus on brand value and profitability [2] Product Strategy - Anta has focused on a core strategy of "mass positioning, professional breakthroughs, and brand elevation," successfully capturing market share with innovative products like the PG7 series and C202 marathon shoes [3] - FILA has shown resilience in the high-end sports fashion market, launching a tennis strategy and innovative products that have performed well despite market challenges [3] Growth Drivers - Other brand segments within Anta Sports have continued to grow rapidly, indicating successful positioning in high-end outdoor and professional sports categories [4] - The company’s growth logic remains sustainable, with increasing penetration in outdoor and running categories, supported by a comprehensive multi-brand strategy [4] Market Positioning - Anta Sports brands have demonstrated strong competitive performance in the market, with FILA leading in sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, and Anta also ranking highly [5] - The transition in the sports apparel industry from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" has been effectively navigated by Anta Sports, establishing a unique competitive moat [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady retail performance in Q3 2025, with the Anta brand and FILA brand achieving low single-digit positive growth year-on-year. Other brands (excluding those added after January 1, 2024) saw retail sales growth of 40-50% year-on-year [3][6]. - The report maintains the previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 13.41 billion yuan, 15.05 billion yuan, and 17.28 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -14.0%, +12.2%, and +14.9% [6][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.8 for 2025, reinforcing the "Strong Buy" rating [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 70.83 billion yuan, 80.92 billion yuan, 91.79 billion yuan, and 104.65 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 14.2%, 13.4%, and 14.0% [5][9]. - **Net Profit**: Projected net profits for the same years are 15.60 billion yuan, 13.41 billion yuan, 15.05 billion yuan, and 17.28 billion yuan, with growth rates of 52.4%, -14.0%, 12.2%, and 14.9% [5][9]. - **Gross Margin**: Expected gross margins are 62.2% for 2024, increasing to 63.5% by 2026 and remaining stable thereafter [10]. - **Debt Ratios**: The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 40.7% in 2024 to 32.7% by 2027, indicating improving financial stability [10]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from the growing sports and outdoor apparel market, with an expanding brand matrix likely to enhance market share [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [4] Core Views - Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, while FILA's retail sales also grew at a low single-digit rate. Other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45%-50% [2][3] - The retail discount for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%. FILA's offline discount was 74% and online discount was 58% [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to a weak external consumption environment and intensified industry competition, but FILA and outdoor brands continue to perform strongly [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, Anta's closing price was HKD 87.80, with a year-to-date high of HKD 106.30 and a low of HKD 73.55. The circulating market value was HKD 246.473 billion [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be HKD 4.85, HKD 5.42, and HKD 6.19 respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 [4][6] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at HKD 77.434 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 13.622 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.7% year-on-year [6][7] Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales growth was below internal expectations, while FILA's retail sales remained healthy. The outdoor brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw retail sales growth of 45%-50% [2][3]