Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.05 HKD and a target value of 102.81 HKD [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the main brand of the company faced pressure, while the FILA brand showed signs of recovery, and other brands maintained high growth rates. The main brand's retail sales experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year, whereas FILA's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by the "Lighthouse Plan," continuous store renovations, and new business models. The FILA brand is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, while other brands are expected to sustain rapid growth despite increasing competition [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of 102.81 HKD per share [8]. Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 followed by a 52.4% increase in 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.9% in 2023, peaking at 25.3% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.4% to 19.8% in the following years [2].

Company Performance - Anta brand's retail revenue decreased slightly in low single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, while FILA brand's revenue increased in low single digits [1] - Other brands (excluding new brands added after early 2024) achieved a revenue growth of 35-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong performance [2] - The company maintained a stable offline discount rate at 71% and an online discount rate reduced by 2 percentage points to 50% year-on-year, with a slight increase in inventory turnover ratio above 5x at the end of the quarter [1] Brand Insights - FILA brand focused on experience upgrades and brand expression, with retail revenue growth in low single digits in Q4 2025, and significant online performance in categories like down jackets and dad shoes [1] - Descente brand achieved a revenue growth of 25-30% year-on-year, becoming the third brand in the group to reach a revenue of 10 billion [2] - Kolon Sport brand saw a revenue increase of 50-55%, indicating continued brand momentum [2] Future Outlook - The company aims for high-quality growth and healthy inventory and discount management in 2026, with several major events planned [2] - The management plans to continue investing in long-term brand development, although short-term operating profit margin may face some pressure [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.71 yuan, while the 2026 forecast is adjusted down by 4.5% to 5.03 yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.45 yuan [2] - The target price is adjusted down by 4% to 110.91 HKD, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 34% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand experienced a slight decline in retail revenue in Q4 2025, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth, and other brands recorded a significant 35-40% growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - Anta's main brand Q4 retail revenue saw a low single-digit decline, attributed to external demand and competitive pressures, with e-commerce still in an adjustment phase [1]. - The overall performance for 2025 indicates a low single-digit growth for Anta's main brand, mid-single-digit growth for FILA, and a robust 45-50% growth for other brands [1][2]. - The discount rates for offline sales remained stable at approximately 71%, while online discounts narrowed by 2 percentage points to about 55% [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q4, with offline sales showing high single-digit growth and online sales experiencing low double-digit growth [2]. - Other brands within the portfolio, such as Descente and KOLON, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Descente growing by 25-30% and KOLON achieving a 55% increase [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to prioritize inventory health and operational quality in 2026, with expectations for the main brand to continue expanding through various channels [3]. - The multi-brand matrix and direct-to-consumer (DTC) model are anticipated to support the company's growth resilience moving forward [3].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group's overall performance remains stable, with the main brand experiencing slight declines while FILA and other brands show positive growth in Q4 2025 [1][2][6] Group Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit negative growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands saw growth of 35-40% [1][2] - The overall growth of Anta Group is steady, with other brands continuing to show high growth, while the main brand's growth has slowed [2][6] - Anta and FILA have improved online discounts and maintained healthy inventory levels, with channel upgrades and overseas expansion progressing simultaneously [1][3] Brand-Specific Insights - Anta's Q4 revenue declined slightly, with a channel upgrade and overseas expansion ongoing; the online growth was low single-digit, slightly better than offline [3][4] - FILA's Q4 revenue grew in the mid-single digits, with healthy inventory levels and improved online discounts; offline sales showed high single-digit growth [4][5] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, continued to show high growth, with Descente growing approximately 25-30% in Q4 and KOLON growing 55% [5][6] Financial Projections - Due to uncertainties in the macro consumption environment and expected increases in marketing expenses for 2026, profit forecasts have been adjusted; projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan respectively [7] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE of 20-21X for 2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [7]

Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand is experiencing pressure on sales, while FILA shows improvement in growth, and other brands maintain high-quality rapid growth [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand retail sales decreased by low single digits year-on-year, indicating pressure on growth [1] - The overall retail sales for the year are expected to grow by low single digits, aligning with the company's previous adjustments [1] - The online channel growth is anticipated to slow down during the adjustment process [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's retail sales in Q4 2025 increased by mid single digits year-on-year, showing improvement compared to Q3 [1] - The annual retail sales for FILA are expected to grow by mid single digits, consistent with prior guidance [1] - FILA is enhancing its offline channel with the introduction of experiential stores like FILA TOPIA and FILA Kids [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands, including Descente, Kolon Sports, and MAIA Active, reported significant growth, with Descente's sales increasing by 25-30% and Kolon Sports by 55% in Q4 [2] - The overall retail sales for other brands grew by 35-40% year-on-year in Q4 [2] - Descente's retail scale is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining high-quality growth [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite the fluctuating retail environment, Anta's brand faces challenges while FILA shows resilience and other brands continue to grow rapidly [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9%, 10.2%, and 9.1% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 78.57 billion, 86.55 billion, and 94.42 billion yuan respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 14.1% in 2025, followed by increases of 12.5% and 11.6% in the subsequent years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported a decline in brand revenue for Q4 2025, while Fila and other brands showed growth, indicating a mixed performance across its portfolio [1][2]. Anta Brand - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the delayed timing of the Chinese New Year [1]. - E-commerce sales are expected to show slight growth, while offline sales, particularly in children's apparel, face more significant pressure due to holiday consumption patterns [1]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, improvements in e-commerce sales and differentiated store development are anticipated to enhance Anta's brand performance [1]. Fila Brand - Fila brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with an acceleration compared to Q3 [2]. - Despite external challenges affecting consumer demand, Fila achieved strong growth due to multi-faceted optimizations in branding, channels, and products [2]. - E-commerce is expected to see double-digit growth driven by major promotional events [2]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Fila is also projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy state [2]. - For 2026, Fila aims to continue high-quality operations and optimize product structure to drive steady growth [2]. Other Brands - Other brands within the group experienced a revenue growth rate of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, showcasing strong performance [2]. - Descente and KOLON are establishing strong brand power in the high-end outdoor segment, with market share expected to increase amid rapid growth in the domestic outdoor sports market [2]. - Maia Active is also anticipated to perform well in Q4 2025 following successful adjustments [2]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 13.2 billion yuan, with a revenue growth of 10.9% to 78.564 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for 2026 is projected to grow by 6.4% to 14 billion yuan, considering ongoing uncertainties in the consumption environment and costs associated with the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 13.194 billion, 14.035 billion, and 15.937 billion yuan respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its operational performance for Q4 2025 and the full year 2025, showing mixed results across its brands, with Anta experiencing a decline, FILA showing growth, and other brands performing strongly, aligning with previous guidance [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue declined by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weakening retail environment, warm winter weather, a later Spring Festival, and intensified industry competition [1] - The company expects healthy inventory levels for the Anta brand, with online sales anticipated to outperform offline sales, and adult apparel expected to perform better than children's wear [1] - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates steady development for the Anta brand in 2026 [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits in Q4 2025, showing improvement compared to Q3, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging retail environment [1] - The company expects continued positive effects from internal team and product reforms, with online sales expected to outperform offline sales, particularly benefiting from Q4 e-commerce shopping festivals [1] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for sustained positive development for the FILA brand [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, showed strong revenue growth in Q4 2025, while MAIA ACTIVE is progressing well in consumer mindset building [2] - The company is strategically positioned in the outdoor market with a multi-brand approach, which is expected to leverage first-mover advantages amid increasing competition in the Greater China region [2] - The long-term potential of the multi-brand strategy is expected to continue to be released [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 78.48 billion, 86.25 billion, and 94.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.8%, 9.9%, and 9.4% respectively [2] - Projected net profits attributable to the parent company are 13.14 billion, 14.14 billion, and 15.85 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -15.8%, +7.6%, and +12.1% respectively [2] - Based on the closing price of 79.1 HKD per share on January 21, 2026, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 15, 14, and 13 times [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Anta's main brand is experiencing short-term revenue pressure but remains resilient in the medium term, with a projected decline in revenue for Q4 2025 compared to the previous year, while annual revenue shows low single-digit growth [1] - The short-term revenue pressure for the main brand is attributed to a weak overall consumer environment, delayed Spring Festival, weather disruptions, and adjustments in the e-commerce business [1] - Despite challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector in 2026, Anta's new store formats and continuous product upgrades are expected to provide stable and sustainable growth opportunities in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The Fila brand showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2025, with mid-single-digit growth, and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to a series of brand, product, and channel optimizations [1] - Other brands, primarily Descente and KOLON, experienced impressive revenue growth of 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with annual growth of 45%-50%, indicating strong overall performance [1] - The medium-term outlook for the mid-to-high-end sports and outdoor segment remains positive, with expectations that growth for other brands will significantly exceed the overall growth of the sports apparel industry starting in 2026 [1] Group 3 - Short-term operational growth may experience fluctuations, but the medium-term outlook for the company's multi-brand and international competitiveness remains strong, especially with significant events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games in 2026 [2] - The company is expected to increase brand investments in 2026, while the integration and investment in the Wolf Claw brand may lead to some fluctuations in overall operating profit margins [2] - Based on Q4 operational data and the current state of the sports apparel consumption industry, the company's earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB, respectively, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026 based on a 20x PE valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a double-digit growth in overall revenue for Q4 2025, with all brands meeting their annual guidance, although the main brand Anta experienced a slight decline in retail sales due to weaker performance in children's business and e-commerce [1][2][3] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - Anta's Q4 retail sales saw a slight year-on-year decline, primarily impacted by the children's segment and online sales growth being low single digits [1] - The brand achieved low single-digit growth for the entire year, aligning with company guidance, while the children's business faced challenges due to high base effects and seasonal factors [1][3] - Anta's store expansion includes approximately 150 new stores by the end of 2025, with a revenue surpassing 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA experienced mid-single-digit growth in Q4, accelerating from Q3, and maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio slightly above 5 times [2] - The brand's discount levels remained controlled, with offline discounts around 7.3 and online at approximately 5.5 [2] - For 2026, FILA is expected to continue its growth trend with the introduction of new products and channels [2][3] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands showed strong performance in Q4, with Descente achieving a retail scale exceeding 10 billion yuan and growing 25%-30% despite high base effects [2] - KOLONSPORT and MAIA ACTIVE also reported significant growth rates of 55% and 25%-30% respectively, indicating a strong momentum in the women's sports segment [2] - The outdoor brand Wolf Claw is still in the incubation phase but is expected to have substantial future potential [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 79.98 billion, 89.65 billion, and 97 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 13.2 billion, 14 billion, and 15.74 billion yuan [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its multi-brand matrix, which is seen as having significant growth potential in the long term [4]

该行指出，核心安踏品牌进入2026财年后，1月至今的表现符合预期，认为管理层对零售额的初步展望 显得务实：核心安踏品牌预计实现正增长，FILA品牌将延续2025年的趋势，而其他品牌则预计录得正 常化增长。该行维持对安踏2025年的盈利预测。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，安踏体育(02020)于2025年第四季度的营运表现符合预期，其 中FILA及其他品牌保持增长势头，维持对安踏的"增持"评级，目标价为141港元。 ...