Vi e w p o i n t | 04 Dec 2025 03:00:00 ET │ 16 pages Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) F4Q25 Earnings Preview: Expect Beat and Raise as Google Ramps TPU With External Customers + Strength in AI. Reiterate Buy. CITI'S TAKE Broadcom will release F4Q25 results on December 11, after market close. We expect AVGO to report results above Consensus, driven by continued AI strength (31% of F25E sales), particularly as Google extends its TPUs to external customers. We estimate AI sales to grow 147% YoY to roughly $49.3 billion ...

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a quarter-point rate cut, with an 85% chance that the FOMC will lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [5] - Despite expectations for easing, five of the 12 voting members are publicly against further rate cuts, indicating a divided FOMC [5] - Wells Fargo notes a "critical mass of support" for the doves, but multiple dissents are expected, with the 2026 median dot projected to hold at 3.375% [5] Earnings Reports - Oracle is expected to report EPS of $1.64 on revenue of $16.2 billion, while Broadcom is projected to report EPS of $1.87 on revenue of $17.64 billion [6] - Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Broadcom with an Overweight rating and a $280 price target, citing nearly $500 billion in AI-related deals [6] - Susquehanna highlights Broadcom's strong position in revenue growth driven by AI networking demand and its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Market Commentary - Michael Burry compares OpenAI to Netscape, suggesting it may face a similar decline despite a potential $1 trillion valuation [6] - Burry also draws parallels between Palantir and DiamondCluster, indicating concerns about their long-term viability [6] - The S&P 500 will see Carvana, CRH, and Comfort Systems USA added, while LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials, and Mohawk Industries will be removed [6]

In June of this year, I downgraded Broadcom ( AVGO ) from a buy to a hold recommendation. With the benefit of hindsight, I would say that call was probably the worst I've made in 2025 in termsProfessional equity portfolio manager for a boutique buy-side asset manager.My focus is on finding high-quality companies, applying a disciplined approach to valuation and identifying underappreciated opportunities. My goal is to identify opportunities in cash-rich companies with strong balance sheets and shareholder f ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Broadcom's CEO, Hock Tan, highlighting his pragmatic management style, cost-cutting measures, and focus on profitability, which have positioned Broadcom as a significant challenger to Nvidia in the AI chip market [1][3]. Group 1: Management Philosophy and Cost-Cutting - Hock Tan is known for his ruthless efficiency, exemplified by significant layoffs and the removal of office perks after acquiring VMware for $84 billion [2][3]. - Following the acquisition, approximately half of VMware's 38,000 employees were laid off, and the number of office buildings was reduced from 18 to 5, contributing to substantial revenue growth for Broadcom [3]. - Broadcom's sales exceeded $50 billion last year, growing over 50% in two years, with expectations to surpass $60 billion this year [3]. Group 2: Acquisition Strategy - Tan has acquired at least 11 companies in the past 15 years, applying a strict methodology to identify "diamonds" and "garbage" in potential acquisitions [4]. - After acquiring VMware, he reduced the product lineup from 8,000 to just 4, focusing on the most valuable offerings for data center clients [4][5]. Group 3: Custom Chip Business - Broadcom has revitalized its chip business by focusing on custom chips, specifically application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), which are more efficient and cost-effective than Nvidia's general-purpose chips [6][7]. - Major clients include Google, OpenAI, and Meta, with significant contracts signed in recent years, indicating a strong market position [7][8]. - Tan predicts that AI could generate $60 billion to $90 billion in new revenue for Broadcom by 2027, with potential earnings from the partnership with OpenAI reaching up to $300 billion [8]. Group 4: Leadership and Succession - At 74, Tan plans to remain CEO at least until 2030, but there are indications that Broadcom is considering succession planning [12][14]. - Charlie Kawwas, the president of Broadcom's semiconductor solutions group, is increasingly visible in investor communications, suggesting he may be a potential successor [12][13].

Core Insights - Nvidia's dominance in the AI computing unit market is facing increasing competition, prompting investors to focus on market trends for 2026 rather than the end of 2025 [1] Company Summaries Alphabet - Alphabet has been developing its custom AI accelerator unit in collaboration with Broadcom, previously using its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) mainly for internal purposes [4] - The potential sale of TPUs to Meta Platforms could create a new revenue stream for Alphabet, which could significantly impact its finances if it generates an additional $10 billion in revenue per quarter [5][7] - Alphabet's recent quarter showed a revenue growth of 16% and diluted EPS growth of 35%, indicating that it does not solely rely on TPU sales for success [7] Broadcom - Broadcom is positioned as a key partner for companies looking to design custom AI hardware, with the potential to outperform Nvidia's GPUs at a lower price point [9] - Broadcom has multiple clients, including OpenAI, and has received a mysterious $10 billion order for custom AI chips, indicating strong demand for its services [11][12] - The company is expected to gain market share in the AI hardware space, making it an attractive investment heading into 2026 [12] Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor is the leading chip fabricator and supplies chips to all major players in the AI market, benefiting from increased spending in the sector [13] - With projections of global data center capital expenditures reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, Taiwan Semiconductor is well-positioned for growth as AI spending increases [15]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, with rates anticipated to drop to the 3.5% to 3.75% range [3][4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference post-meeting to discuss the economy, job market, and inflation, which may provide insights into future interest rate decisions [5] Corporate Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports this week include Oracle, Broadcom, GameStop, Costco, Adobe, and AutoZone, with a focus on how these companies are navigating current economic conditions [2][6] - Oracle's stock faced a decline due to concerns over debt for AI infrastructure, while Broadcom's shares rose due to optimism from its relationship with Alphabet [7] - Costco's report may reveal the impact of tariffs on its operations, and AutoZone's earnings will be scrutinized after missing profit expectations in the previous quarter [8] Economic Data Releases - Important economic data to be released includes job openings, employment cost index, and trade deficit figures, which will provide further context for the Fed's decisions [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The NAND Flash wafer contract prices have significantly increased, driven by strong demand from AI applications and enterprise-level SSD orders. The average monthly price increase for various products reached 20%-60% in November [2][3] - Micron Technology announced plans to gradually shut down its Crucial consumer storage business by the end of February 2026, reallocating capacity and investment towards enterprise-level DRAM and SSD products to meet the growing demand in the AI sector [2][3] - ByteDance has launched the Doubao mobile assistant, marking a significant step towards the realization of AI-integrated smartphones. This assistant can perform tasks across various scenarios, potentially leading to a new wave of AI smartphone releases from other manufacturers [2][3] Market Performance Summary - The performance of the electronic sub-sectors has varied, with the following year-to-date changes: Semiconductors (+40.98%), Other Electronics II (+42.02%), Components (+88.55%), Optical Electronics (+10.22%), Consumer Electronics (+44.83%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+38.67%). Weekly changes include: Semiconductors (+0.88%), Other Electronics II (-1.34%), Components (-0.67%), Optical Electronics (+4.42%), Consumer Electronics (+1.61%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+0.34%) [2][9] - In North America, key stocks showed mixed performance, with notable changes including Tesla (+5.77%), Qualcomm (+4.00%), and Micron Technology (+0.31%) [2][10] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: For overseas AI - Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology; For domestic AI - Cambricon, Chipone, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit; For storage - Demingli, Jiangbolong, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jucheng Co., and Purun Co.; For SoC - Rockchip, Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Amlogic, and Zhongke Lanyun [3]

As AI continues to carry the markets, advisors are trying really hard not to burst anyone’s bubble. Sure, the S&P 500 Index is up a respectable 14% so far this year, but nearly half of all US stocks are in negative territory, and 70% of those stocks are lagging the index, which is leaving some advisors increasingly concerned about a pullback. Such gloomy data is being overshadowed and offset by the strength of a tight group of AI infrastructure and related semiconductor stocks that are fueling a market ru ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing support for risk assets due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with major U.S. stock indices showing slight increases: Dow Jones up 0.50%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.31% [1][11] - European indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55%, while Germany's DAX 30 rose 0.80% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.10% [1][11] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, amid concerns over a weak labor market and persistent inflation worries [2][12] - The market anticipates the release of the Fed's dot plot, which will provide insights into the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts, with expectations for 2-3 additional cuts by 2026 [2][12] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases next week include U.S. labor market indicators, such as unit labor costs and job openings, which are crucial for assessing economic health [2][12] - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes, $39 billion in 10-year notes, and $22 billion in 30-year notes, testing investor demand for long-term bonds [2][13] Corporate Earnings Focus - Companies such as Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco are under scrutiny for their earnings reports, particularly due to concerns over excessive investment in AI and rising corporate debt [3][13] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to signal further rate cuts due to high inflation, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% [4][14] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its current rate, influenced by strong employment data and GDP growth, despite ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][14] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to adopt a dovish stance due to weak GDP performance and negative producer price index growth, although recent PMI and retail sales data have exceeded expectations [5][15] Commodity Prices - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude rising 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.20% to $63.75 per barrel [6][15] - Gold prices are fluctuating, with COMEX gold futures down 0.13% to $4,212.90 per ounce, as market focus remains on the Fed's monetary policy outlook [6][16] Economic Resilience in Europe - Eurozone inflation is nearing the European Central Bank's target, with November CPI rising to 2.2%, suggesting limited scope for significant monetary policy adjustments [8][18] - The UK GDP data for October is anticipated, with expectations for a 0.2% month-on-month growth, reflecting concerns over economic prospects [8][18]

Group 1 - Huawei's founder Ren Zhengfei emphasized that the future will see an excess of computing power, stating that building numerous large models is a correct exploration [2][3] - Ren highlighted that AI's true value lies in its application rather than invention, asserting that AI could contribute significantly to various industries, such as coal washing and steel production [2][3] - SoftBank's Masayoshi Son expressed regret over selling Nvidia shares, indicating that the sale was driven by the need for capital to invest in AI projects like OpenAI [3] Group 2 - Google CEO Sundar Pichai called for a national AI regulatory framework in the U.S. to avoid regulatory chaos and maintain competitive advantage [4] - Elon Musk predicted that AI could resolve the U.S. debt crisis within three years, suggesting that productivity gains from AI will soon outpace inflation [4] - The gap between China and the U.S. in AI capabilities has reportedly narrowed, with fewer doubts expressed about this disparity in the current market [4] Group 3 - Nvidia's CFO refuted claims of an AI bubble, stating that the current phase is an early stage of transitioning to AI-required data center infrastructure [5] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang noted that AI will not directly eliminate jobs but will create new, unconventional roles [6] - UBS reported that the likelihood of an AI bubble in China is low, citing limited financing and a pragmatic approach to AI investments by leading internet companies [7] Group 4 - AMD's CEO Lisa Su downplayed concerns about an AI bubble, asserting that the demand for chips will continue to grow as AI technology develops [8] - Morgan Stanley projected explosive growth in Google's TPU production, raising estimates significantly for the coming years [9][10] - SemiAnalysis indicated that Google's advantage lies in its AI infrastructure rather than chip performance, suggesting a competitive threat to Nvidia [11] Group 5 - DeepSeek announced the release of two official model versions, aiming to enhance reasoning capabilities and support various applications [12] - The first domestic GPU company, Moore Threads, saw a significant stock price increase upon its debut, raising substantial funds for AI chip development [13] - HSBC partnered with Mistral AI to integrate generative AI tools across its operations, enhancing efficiency and customer service [13] Group 6 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that China's software business revenue reached 125.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year growth [16] - The first AI crop "genetic scientist" in China is set to launch globally next year, showcasing advancements in agricultural research [17] - Alibaba released an updated image generation model, Qwen-Image, which has been integrated into its app for user access [18]