智通财经6月6日电，伯恩斯坦将博通目标价从250美元上调至295美元。 ...

Investment Ratings - Broadcom: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $250 [4] - TSMC: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $1275 [6] - Hon Hai: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $210 [7] - Wistron: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of $118 [9] - Ciena: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $86 [10] - Lumentum: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $87 [11] - TIS: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of Y4,700 [12] - SCSK: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of Y4,400 [13] Core Insights - Broadcom is expected to see significant AI XPU growth, with AI revenues projected to rise from $12.2 billion in 2024 to $31.2 billion by 2026, surpassing street consensus [5] - TSMC maintains strong gross margins (GMs) and anticipates a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% through 2029, supported by price increases and a faster ramp of N2 technology [6][8] - Hon Hai's sales in May were impacted by TWD appreciation, but AI demand remains strong, with expectations of reaching 2,000 rack shipments in Q2 [7][9] - Wistron is focusing on GDR issuance to support AI system growth, with expectations of sustained revenue driven by robust demand for Dell's GB200 systems [9][15] - Ciena's revenue and order strength indicate robust growth in the optical market, driven by cloud and service provider investments [10] - Lumentum is updating its revenue expectations due to strong demand in optics, forecasting a quarterly revenue target of $500 million ahead of schedule [11] Detailed Highlights - Broadcom's AI revenue growth is expected to significantly exceed consensus estimates, with a bullish outlook for the AI sector overall [5] - TSMC's pricing strategy includes anticipated price hikes for leading-edge nodes, with a focus on maintaining high gross margins [6][8] - Hon Hai's revenue growth is expected to continue, driven by AI server demand, despite short-term currency impacts [7][9] - Wistron's capital raise is aimed at supporting AI system growth, with expectations of increased shipments in the coming months [9][15] - Ciena's strong sales trends are attributed to increased cloud investments, indicating a positive outlook for the optical market [10] - Lumentum's demand strength is leading to an upward revision in revenue forecasts, reflecting robust drivers in the optics sector [11]

美国最新发布的贸易数据显示，2025年4月份贸易赤字大幅缩小至616亿美元，为2023年9月以来的最低，也显著低于3月份的1,383亿美元。 特朗普可能对这一数据颇感得意，并视作其4月初启动关税政策以来所取得的胜利。 但需要注意的是，导致美国贸易赤字大幅缩小的一个重要原因是美国进口货品和服务货值的显著下降。 数据说话！ 2025年4月美国进口额环比下降16.3%至3510亿美元。 众所周知，这一差距源于美国进口企业因预期特朗普关税政策而提前囤货，推高了3月份的基数。而4月份进口下滑，或许意味着需求预期呈弱。这对于经济 展望而言，并非一个好消息。 从另一组数据来看，美国最新公布的失业申领救济金数据，也似乎佐证了美国经济最近转弱的趋势。 公布超预期第2财季业绩的博通（AVGO.US），股价在最近20个交易日大涨近27%后，于公布业绩后的盘后交易时段调整超4%； 市场普遍预期，美联储在6月18日的议息会议上将维持利率不变，但这场会议将备受关注，因为随着更多的经济数据出炉，特朗普政策对通胀和就业的影响 也将逐渐得到体现，对美联储的货币政策带来更多的启示。 有意思的是，欧洲央行于6月5日晚宣布将欧元区三大关键指标利率分 ...

当前时点如何看光模块反弹行情 20250605 摘要 英伟达季报显示 Blackwell 产品占一季度收入 70%，部署速度达每周 1,000 架机架，预计二季度部署量超 6,000-10,000 架。GB300 可能 在二季度末出货，从 GB200 切换到 GB300 无太多障碍，采用有限创新 以保证稳健交付，核心变化包括 HBM 配置提升和标配 CX8 网卡。 Mellanox 网络业务超预期，MV link 销售额约 10 亿，ID 和以太坊贡献 10 亿环比增长。收入主要来自交换机、光模块、网卡及 Armlink 协议 授权，这些领域在第一季度有复苏迹象，利好英伟达供应链，如天孚通 信直接受益。 主权国家对 AI 投资超预期，沙特大单已促成，英伟达将在欧洲推动更多 主权 AI 大单。谷歌 IO 大会提到推理需求显著增加，每月 TOKEN 消耗 量达 480 万亿，同比增长 50 倍，支撑推理需求。 博通 Tomahawk 6 提前发布，加速行业迭代。Tomahawk 系列产品从 发布到批量出货通常需一到两年，预计 Tomahawk 6 将在 2026 年下 半年或 2027 年上半年开始规模交付，推动 ...

①马斯克与特朗普冲突升级特斯拉股价暴跌 SpaceX"龙"飞船退役 因马斯克与特朗普冲突加剧，特斯拉股价隔夜暴跌14.26%，创2020年以来最大单日跌幅，市值蒸发超 1500亿美元。马斯克在X上批评国会支出法案，摩根大通预计，若法案通过，特斯拉年利润将减少32亿 美元。特朗普反击称马斯克"失去耐性"，撤销其电动汽车"强制令"，并威胁终止数十亿美元的政府补贴 和合同。马斯克随后宣布，因特朗普威胁取消政府合同，SpaceX将立即开始退役"龙"飞船，而当前美国 载人航天活动高度依赖该飞船。今年以来，特斯拉股价已下跌29.5%，周四成交量是过去100日均值的 两倍，公司估值面临重新定价。 评论员徐广语：特斯拉股价隔夜暴跌14.26%，市值蒸发超1500亿美元，主要原因有三点：1）马斯克与 特朗普因税改法案冲突激化，特朗普威胁终止政府补贴及合同；2）欧洲市场销量连续五个月下滑（德 国跌36.2%、英国跌45%），中国销量同比降15%且连跌八月；3）一季度净利润仅4.09亿美元，叠加"木 头姐"减持近5万股动摇市场信心，多重利空致估值泡沫承压。 海顺投顾黄俊：特斯拉隔夜股价大跌，其关键因素在于马斯克与特朗普之间的"对战 ...

博通总裁兼CEO陈福阳表示，有3个客户2027年将分别部署有100万个AI加速芯片的集群，用于训练模型，目前能看到推理也有迫切需求。 当地时间6月5日，半导体厂商博通（Nasdaq：AVGO）发布截至2025年5月4日的2025财年第二季度财报。财报显示，该季度博通营收150.04亿美元，同比 增长20%，超过此前的业绩指引149亿美元，也略高于市场预期的149.7亿美元；（GAAP）净利润49.65亿美元，同比增长134%；调整后EBITDA100.01亿 美元，高于去年同期的74.29亿美元；毛利率79.4%，高于此前的业绩指引。 分业务看，第二季度博通半导体解决方案收入84.08亿美元，同比增长17%，基础设施软件收入65.96亿美元，同比增长25%。 | | GAAP | | | | | Non-GAAP | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Dollars in millions, except per share data) | 02 25 | 02 24 | | Change | Q2 25 | 02 24 | Chan ...

不过，博通预计，在截至8月3日的第三财季，销售额将为158亿美元(即同比增长21%)。尽管这一预期高 于分析师平均预期的157.2亿美元，但较一些最乐观的分析师的预期低了10亿美元。此外，该公司预 计，第三财季AI相关业务营收将增至51亿美元。同样，尽管这一预期好于分析师平均预期的47.9亿美 元，但一些分析师的预期甚至高达52.9亿美元。 与英伟达一样，博通被视为AI支出激增的主要受益者，数据中心依靠其定制芯片和网络组件来处理AI 计算工作负载。自博通于3月发布第一财季业绩以来，该股股价已经上涨了30%以上，市值达到1.2万亿 美元。其中大部分涨幅来自近一个月，市场对未来几个月AI设备的巨额支出将继续下去的预期推动了 这一增长。但这也意味着，即使博通公布的第二财季业绩普遍超过预期，仍难以令投资者感到惊喜。有 分析人士则认为，博通对第三财季的业绩指引显得较为平淡，表明AI支出的热潮并不像一些投资者预 期的那样强劲。 芯片巨头博通(AVGO.US)公布了一份超预期的第二财季业绩，但对第三财季的指引不够惊艳令一些投资 者感到失望。财报显示，在截至5月4日的第二财季，博通销售额同比增长20%至150亿美元，略高于分 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q2 fiscal year 2025 was a record $15 billion, up 20% year on year, driven by strength in AI semiconductors and VMware [6][17] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $10 billion, reflecting a 35% year on year increase [7][18] - Gross margin was 79.4%, better than guidance due to product mix [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue reached $8.4 billion, growing 17% year on year, with AI semiconductor revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, up 46% year on year [8][19] - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.6 billion, up 25% year on year, driven by the transition of enterprise customers to the full VCF software stack subscription [13][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI networking revenue grew over 170% year on year, representing 40% of AI revenue [8][9] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4 billion, down 5% year on year, but showed sequential growth in broadband, enterprise networking, and service storage [12][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustaining growth in AI semiconductor revenue, forecasting $5.1 billion for Q3, up 60% year on year [11][24] - Continued investment in R&D for leading-edge AI semiconductors is a priority, with a disciplined integration of VMware contributing to growth [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory of AI semiconductor revenue into fiscal year 2026, driven by increased demand for inference alongside training [11][94] - The company is cautious about external factors such as export controls, indicating uncertainty in the current environment [108][110] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for the quarter was $6.4 billion, representing 43% of revenue, impacted by increased interest expenses from debt related to the VMware acquisition [21] - The company repurchased $4.2 billion worth of shares and paid $2.8 billion in dividends during the quarter [23][102] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI growth and inference - Management indicated increased deployment of XPUs and networking, contributing to confidence in sustained growth rates [28][29] Question: AI business growth trajectory - Management confirmed expectations of maintaining a 60% year on year growth rate into fiscal year 2026 based on improved visibility [33][34] Question: Networking performance and Tomahawk's role - Strong demand for AI networking was noted, with Tomahawk switches expected to drive future acceleration [40][42] Question: VMware subscription model conversion status - Management stated that the conversion process is more than halfway through, with about a year to a year and a half remaining [112][113]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was a record $15 billion, up 20% year on year, driven by strength in AI semiconductors and VMware momentum [5][14] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $10 billion, up 35% year on year, reflecting excellent operating leverage [5][14] - Gross margin was 79.4%, better than guidance, with operating income of $9.8 billion, up 37% year on year [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $8.4 billion, growing 17% year on year, with AI semiconductor revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, up 46% year on year [6][16] - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.6 billion, up 25% year on year, driven by the transition to the full VCF software stack subscription [11][17] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4 billion, down 5% year on year, but with sequential growth in broadband, enterprise networking, and service storage [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI networking revenue grew over 170% year on year, representing 40% of total AI revenue, driven by robust demand from hyperscale customers [6][10] - The company expects AI semiconductor revenue to reach $5.1 billion in Q3 2025, up 60% year on year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth [9][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its AI semiconductor capabilities, with expectations of significant deployments of custom AI accelerators by customers [8][9] - The strategy includes leveraging Ethernet as the preferred choice for hyperscale customers, with new product launches like the Tomahawk six switch [7][8] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation, prioritizing debt reduction and opportunistic share repurchases [21][100] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining the growth rate of AI semiconductor revenue into fiscal 2026, driven by increased demand for inference alongside training [9][91] - The operating environment remains dynamic, with management acknowledging uncertainty regarding export controls on AI technology [105] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for the quarter was $6.4 billion, representing 43% of revenue, impacted by increased interest expenses and cash taxes [18][20] - The company repaid $1.6 billion of debt post-quarter, reducing gross principal debt to $67.8 billion [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the inference commentary and its impact on growth? - Management indicated increased deployment of XPUs and networking, contributing to confidence in growth rates for the upcoming year [26][27] Question: How do you see the AI business sustaining its growth trajectory? - Management confirmed that the AI business is expected to sustain a 60% year-over-year growth rate into fiscal 2026 based on improved visibility and demand [30][91] Question: What drove the strong performance in AI networking? - The growth in AI networking is closely tied to the deployment of AI accelerated clusters, with increased density in scale-up scenarios exceeding expectations [35][38] Question: How is the integration of VMware progressing? - Management noted that the conversion to subscription models is ongoing, with about two-thirds of renewals completed, expecting another year to finalize the process [108]

博通股价在财报电话会期间跌幅扩大至5.5%。 ...