Group 1: Core Trends in Technology Industry - Goldman Sachs identifies ten key trends in the technology sector for 2026, focusing on AI servers, optical communication, foldable iPhones, semiconductors, smart driving, and satellite communication, revealing structural investment opportunities driven by technological innovation and supply chain changes [1] - The AI server market is expected to see explosive growth, with shipments projected to increase from 19,000 units in 2025 to 50,000 units in 2026, driven by the rising penetration of ASIC chips, which is expected to reach 40% by 2026 [2] - The optical communication sector will benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure, with demand for optical transceivers expected to surge as data centers upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T [3] Group 2: Key Developments in Specific Technologies - Liquid cooling technology is anticipated to see a significant increase in penetration, particularly in the ASIC AI server domain, as supply chains adapt to higher thermal challenges from increased computing power [4] - ODM manufacturers with strong commitments or capacity plans in the U.S. are expected to outperform the market, with companies like Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn favored due to their robust R&D capabilities and vertical integration [5] - The PC market faces significant challenges in 2026, with only global leaders like Lenovo expected to maintain resilience due to stronger supply chain bargaining power and exposure to high-end products [6] Group 3: Consumer Electronics and Semiconductor Insights - Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is projected to ship between 11 million and 35 million units in 2026, becoming a strong catalyst in the smartphone market, with high-end foldable models driving growth for related component suppliers [7] - The PCB market remains solid, particularly for high-end CCL and PCB suppliers, benefiting from the growth in AI server shipments and increased ASIC penetration, with average selling prices expected to rise by 20-30% annually in 2026 and 2027 [8] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth, driven by local leaders' expansion plans and the rise of domestic GPU suppliers, with AI technology innovation and new demands from edge devices being key growth drivers [9] Group 4: Emerging Technologies and Future Outlook - The smart driving trend is expected to deepen in 2026, with the proliferation of urban navigation-assisted driving and Robotaxi services driving growth for chipsets, software, and sensor suppliers [10] - The low Earth orbit satellite industry is entering an acceleration phase, with increased rocket payload capacities and reduced launch costs expected to speed up satellite launches, alongside upgrades in satellite specifications [11]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年电子行业十大预测 20260104 Q&A 2026 年电子行业的十大预测中,云端算力板块有哪些重要趋势和变化? 2026年,云端算力板块尤其是国产算力将迎来显著发展。首先,从产能角度来 看,预计到 2026年底,包括国内头部晶圆厂在内的 N2 制程将释放充沛的产能, 为国内 GPU 厂商提供足够的供给。这意味着产能瓶颈不再是国产算力发展的核心 问题。 从需求端来看,无论是字节跳动等龙头公司的投放消耗,还是国产算力 原厂商的客单价情况,都显示出强劲增长。例如,在2025年 5月,字节跳动单 日数据消耗约为 15-16 万亿,到 9 月底已达到 30 万亿,并在 12 月初超过 50 万 k 调研纪号 争 狗 - 国产 GPU 产能释放,不再是算力瓶颈,字节跳动等龙头企业数据消耗量激 . 增,预示国产算力需求端强劲增长,2026年中或突破百万亿级别,为国 产算力公司业绩兑现奠定基础。 寒武纪和海光等龙头 GPT 公司在产能供给和地方政府招标中占据优势,同 ● 时,推理芯片需求增加,ASIC 芯片有望与 GPU 并驾齐驱,新元股份和翱 捷等公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by three key trends: storage, AI, and domestic production. A global supply-demand gap in storage is anticipated to persist, while AI-related capital expenditures and innovations in domestic chip design are set to rise sharply [4][5]. Group 1: Storage - The storage market saw a dramatic price increase in 2025, with major players forecasting that shortages will continue into 2026. Micron's Chief Business Officer highlighted a significant gap between supply and demand [6]. - TrendForce predicts that capital expenditures in the storage sector will rise, with DRAM spending increasing from $53.7 billion to $61.3 billion (14% YoY) and NAND spending from $21.1 billion to $22.2 billion (5% YoY) [6]. - Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, HP, and Dell are planning to raise prices and adjust product specifications in response to rising storage costs, with Lenovo already notifying customers of upcoming price hikes [7]. Group 2: AI - The AI sector continues to thrive, with global cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures by 40% to $600 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI applications [9]. - The shift from training to inference in AI models is anticipated to boost the demand for ASIC chips, with projections of over 800,000 units shipped in 2026 [9]. - Companies like Chipone have reported a significant increase in new orders, indicating strong demand for customized chip solutions [9]. Group 3: Domestic Production - The domestic semiconductor design sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of companies increasing from 1,380 in 2017 to 3,901 in 2025, and sales revenue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [12]. - The utilization rates of domestic foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have rebounded, benefiting from the rise of local chip design firms and a trend towards localized manufacturing [12]. - In the foundry segment, advanced logic production is expected to double, with significant expansions planned by companies like SMIC and Huahong [15].

在政策与技术的双重驱动下，新质生产力的内涵持续扩展，商业航天、具身智能等新兴细分赛道的重要 性显著提升。从二级市场来看，华泰证券策略首席分析师兼金融工程首席分析师何康认为，当前新质生 产力主要涵盖三大领域：一是计算机、电子、通信等大科技行业；二是电力设备、机械设备、国防军 工、汽车等大制造行业；三是医药生物等大健康行业。 "2025年以来，新质生产力版图出现多个在技术突破与政策导向双重驱动下新增的细分赛道，其中最具 代表性的是具身智能与商业航天。"何康表示，从政策端看，2025年初的政府工作报告首次将具身智 能、智能机器人提升至与生物制造、量子科技同等的战略地位；党的二十届四中全会公报提及航天强 国，国家航天局设立商业航天司等举措展现出商业航天的地位不断提升。 ● 本报记者 赵中昊 党的二十届四中全会提出，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力。中央经济工作会议也强调 要因地制宜发展新质生产力。近日，多位券商分析师在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，随着新质生产 力的内涵持续扩展，商业航天、具身智能等新兴细分赛道重要性显著提升。展望2026年，作为"十五 五"开局之年，电力设备、电子、军工以及人工智能产业链等 ...

● 本报记者赵中昊 从技术端看，今年以来具身智能领域取得了一系列重要的技术突破，涵盖了从核心算法、模型架构到关 键数据生态等多个层面，并已开始在工业、特种作业等场景中落地应用；商业航天领域近期迎来可复用 箭型密集首飞，卫星批量化智能制造与商业航天发射场常态化运行。此外，政策亦催生出以深海科技、 深地科技为典型代表的一系列前期未获重点关注的行业方向，随着技术突破和战略价值提升，后续有望 走向新质生产力的核心。 华福证券研究所所长助理、策略首席分析师周浦寒表示，在宏观政策定调与技术演进的双重驱动下，新 质生产力的内涵不断拓展，部分细分赛道的重要性显著提升：一是政策明确支持的商业航天、低空经济 等新兴产业与生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G等未来产业赛道；二是因技术突破与市场认知深化 而"催生"或重点关注的行业方向，2025年市场对新质生产力的投资逻辑从泛主题炒作向细分景气度和真 实技术壁垒深化，催生了对"反内卷"主题、AI全产业链国产化突破和"科创成长层"引领的资本市场服务 前移等方向的聚焦。 2026年锚定新质生产力落地方向 党的二十届四中全会提出，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力。中央经济工作会议也 ...

消息面上，"港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技港股IPO已启动招股，计划2026年1月2日登陆港交所，将成为港 股首家GPU上市企业。此次IPO最高募资48.5亿港元，每手200股入场费3959.5港元，公募部分已录得 2607亿港元孖展额，超购1072倍，国际配售因需求强劲提前截止。 业内人士指出，全球AI芯片竞争从"一家独大"走向"分散称霸"。以英伟达为代表的传统巨头地位出现 松动，谷歌TPU等ASIC芯片崛起，中国本土芯片力量快速成长，共同推动全球芯片格局向多元化发 展。 直指港股芯片超级周期！可以T+0的港股芯片产业链ETF来了——全市场首只聚焦"港股芯片"产业链的 港股信息技术ETF（159131），标的指数由"70%硬件+30%软件"构成，重仓港股"半导体+电子+计算机 软件"，涵盖42只港股硬科技公司，其中中芯国际权重达20.48%，小米集团-W权重9.53%，华虹半导体 权重5.80%；不含阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团等大市值互联网企业，锐度更高，更易捕捉港股AI硬科技行 情。（截至2025.11.30） 12月29日早盘，A+H芯片半导体产业链携手走强，港股硬科技方面，优必选、上海复旦涨超10%，建滔 积层 ...

直指港股芯片超级周期！可以T+0的港股芯片产业链ETF来了——全市场首只聚焦"港股芯片"产业链的 港股信息技术ETF（159131），标的指数由"70%硬件+30%软件"构成，重仓港股"半导体+电子+计算机 软件"，涵盖42只港股硬科技公司，其中中芯国际权重达20.48%，小米集团-W权重9.53%，华虹半导体 权重5.80%；不含阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团等大市值互联网企业，锐度更高，更易捕捉港股AI硬科技行 情。（截至2025.11.30） 数据来源：中证指数公司，沪深交易所。 注："全市场首只"是指首只跟踪中证港股通信息技术综合指数的ETF。中证港股通信息技术综合指数设 置单个样本权重上限为15%，伴随个股市值波动权重占比会产生相应变化，可能会出现超过15%的情 形。指数样本每半年调整一次，届时单个样本权重上限一般会平衡至15%。近期市场波动可能较大，短 期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资，高度注意仓位 和风险管理。 风险提示：港股通信息技术ETF被动跟踪中证港股通信息技术综合指数，该指数基日为2014.11.14，发 布于2017.6.23。材料中指数成份股仅作展示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise of domestic GPU companies in China is driven by policy benefits, capital support, and a surge in AI computing power demand, marking a significant moment for the industry as companies prepare for IPOs and attract substantial market interest [1][2][3]. Group 1: IPO Surge of Domestic GPU Companies - Domestic GPU companies are aggressively pursuing IPOs, with notable examples including Moer Technology and Muxi, which have seen their market values soar to 440 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively [1][8]. - The average establishment time for these companies is around five years, aligning with the typical exit timeline for venture capital and private equity investments [4]. - The rapid pace of IPOs reflects a combination of market recovery, policy support, and the need for companies to establish benchmarks and demonstrate their potential to investors [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Valuation - Despite high market valuations, many of these companies are still operating at a loss, with Muxi projected to have a revenue cap of 1.98 billion yuan and a net loss of up to 763 million yuan by 2025 [8][9]. - The market's enthusiasm is evident as Moer Technology's market cap briefly exceeded 440 billion yuan, despite its limited revenue and ongoing losses [8][32]. - The average price-to-sales ratio for these companies is over 170 times, indicating a significant disparity between revenue and market valuation, leading to mixed investor sentiments [33][34]. Group 3: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The competition is not only among domestic GPU companies but also includes major cloud service providers developing their own ASIC chips, which poses a significant threat to the market share of domestic GPUs [27][30]. - The lack of a robust ecosystem and reliance on external components, such as memory, complicates the cost structure for these companies, potentially impacting their profitability [21][22]. - Building a competitive ecosystem similar to NVIDIA's CUDA is essential for long-term success, but it requires substantial investment and time, which many domestic companies are currently struggling to achieve [23][24]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The disparity in access to IPO benefits has led to criticism, as institutional investors have captured a significant portion of the shares, leaving individual investors with minimal gains [37][38]. - Companies need to effectively communicate their value propositions and operational strategies to investors to maintain support and justify their high valuations [40][41]. - The long-term success of these domestic GPU companies will depend on their ability to deliver on performance and profitability while navigating the complexities of the semiconductor market [41].

波澜壮阔的2025年即将结束。这一年，权力的更迭、科技的狂飙、货币的易位与地缘的震荡交织在一起，构成了一幅极其复杂的历史画卷。我们见 证了传统秩序的加速崩解，也捕捉到了新秩序在阵痛中萌芽的微光。 作为记录者，财联社连续第四年推出年度海外十大新闻评选，试图从纷繁复杂的碎片中，厘清这一年影响全球资本市场与命运走向的核心脉 络。 以下是财联社评选出的2025年十大海外新闻 1. 特朗普就任美国第47任总统，任期首年频挥关税大棒，全球不确定性陡增 2025年1月20日，特朗普重返白宫，正式开启了他的第二个美国总统任期。这位奉行"交易艺术"的总统在就职后的"百日新政"中，以令市 场瞠目结舌的速度兑现了一系列竞选承诺。他不仅签署了多项撤销前任政府气候与能源政策的行政令，更将矛头直指全球贸易体系，宣布对 多国实施普遍性基础关税和针对性的高额附加关税，试图以此作为逼迫制造业回流美国的终极杠杆。 这一政策在全球供应链中引发了"强震"。由于关税壁垒的陡然升高，全球跨国企业不得不重新评估其生产布局，导致短期内航运成本波动剧 烈，多国通胀压力因进口成本上升而再度抬头。欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥等美国贸易伙伴纷纷表达了强烈不满，并相继出台贸 ...

二、ASIC芯片出货量有望上修，2026年液冷市场空间有望达到165亿美元 非GPU散热需求崛起：2026年数据中心ASIC芯片出货量有望超800万颗，2027年有望突破1000万颗，未 来或将与同期GPU出货量相近，成为液冷市场重要增量来源。 市场规模测算：以单颗AI芯片1376美元计算，2026年英伟达GPU液冷市场有望达119亿美元，ASIC液冷 市场有望达46亿美元，整体数据中心液冷市场规模有望达165亿美元(约1162亿元人民币)，2025-2026年 CAGR约59%。 智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，英伟达(NVDA.US)GPU服务器之外，ASIC服务器亦逐步推 出液冷方案。随着头部CSP加速自研ASIC芯片的规模化部署与外部商用，数据中心液冷渗透率加速上 行。大陆已有企业已成为头部芯片厂商合作伙伴，本土有望诞生国际一流液冷厂商，维持对计算机行 业"推荐"评级。 国海证券主要观点如下： 一、AI服务器液冷渗透率加速上行，技术方案持续迭代 芯片功耗突破风冷上限：英伟达VR300(3600W)、AMDMI355(1400W)、谷歌TPU v7(约980W)等芯片 TDP逼近或超过1000W ...