Thursday, June 5, 2025Pre-market futures had been up +0.25% or so across the board, but came back down to “unched” from yesterday’s close following a few key economic data points. These data points were not bad across the board, but they do continue to narrative a subtle unraveling in things like a stout, impervious labor market.However, these same futures are just now rebounding back into the green on a report that President Trump and President Xi have spoken on the phone this morning -- clearly in hopes t ...

据数据显示，博通将于美东时间周四盘后发布2025财年一季度财报，华尔街分析师平均预期其当季每股 收益将达1.57美元，营收规模约149.7亿美元。 随着全球企业逐步加大AI资本支出，半导体产业链持续受益，而传统SaaS企业则面临增长放缓压力。 投资者需密切关注博通AI业务进展及赛富时客户留存率变化，以把握云计算与芯片赛道分化带来的投 资机遇。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲投资公司Erste Group周四发布评级调整公告，将芯片巨头博通(AVGO.US)的评 级从"持有"上调至"买入"，同时将云计算龙头赛富时(CRM.US)的评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，引发市场 广泛关注。 他特别提到，赛富时当前销售增速已落后于主要竞争对手，而其估值水平仍低于软件行业平均水平，这 成为此次调整评级的核心考量因素。 在最新研报中，Erste分析师Hans Engel着重看好博通在AI基础设施领域的竞争优势："博通构建了极具 吸引力的网络应用产品矩阵，尤其在虚拟化软件领域展现出强劲增长动能。其营业利润率与ROE持续领 跑行业，随着全球企业加速布局AI数据中心硬件及互联解决方案，该公司人工智能半导体需求有望保 持高位运行。" 对于赛 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up 0.03% and Nasdaq futures down 0.02% [1] - European indices also experienced slight gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.29%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.16%, and France's CAC40 up 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.22% to $62.99 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.31% to $65.06 per barrel [3][4] Regulatory Changes - Michelle Bowman was confirmed as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, indicating a shift towards more lenient regulations under the Trump administration [5] - Bowman has advocated for tailored regulations and has been critical of the complexity of current regulatory frameworks [5] Industry Impact of Tariffs - The new 50% tariff on aluminum imports has raised concerns among industry executives about potential declines in consumer demand [6] - Derek Prichett from Novelis highlighted that the tariff could negatively impact demand, particularly affecting their operations in Canada and the US [6] Economic Outlook - Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed stated that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe the impact of tariffs on the economy before making interest rate decisions [7] - He noted that uncertainty from tariffs is a significant risk to business investment and could lead to job cuts [7] Emerging Markets - Bank of America Securities predicts double-digit returns for emerging market assets this year, driven by expectations of a declining dollar [8] - The firm favors Eastern European currencies and stocks, with Brazil being a top pick in fixed income due to high interest rates [8] Company Earnings - Momo Inc. reported a 1.5% year-over-year decline in Q1 net revenue, with a drop in paid users to 4.2 million [9] - Waterdrop Inc. achieved a 7% increase in Q1 revenue, marking its 13th consecutive quarter of profitability [10] - Procter & Gamble plans to cut 15% of its office workforce, amounting to approximately 7,000 positions, to enhance productivity [11] - Alphabet Inc. intends to expand its engineering workforce despite industry-wide layoffs, emphasizing the importance of talent in AI [12] Legal Developments - Apple Inc. faced a setback as a US appeals court denied its request to pause a ruling requiring changes to its App Store practices [13]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The AI ASIC market is expected to grow from $12 billion in 2024 to $30 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% [1] - The demand for AI servers is driving major cloud service providers in the US to accelerate the development of ASIC chips, with new products being launched every 1-2 years [2] - In China, the market share of imported chips is projected to drop from 63% in 2024 to about 42% by 2025 due to new export control policies, while domestic chip manufacturers' market share is expected to rise to 40% [2] Group 2: ASIC Technology and Performance - AWS's Trainium 2 ASIC chip can complete inference tasks faster than NVIDIA's H100 GPU, with a cost-performance improvement of 30%-40% [3] - Google's TPU has become a typical representative of ASIC technology, with the latest version, Ironwood, capable of achieving 42.5 exaflops of AI computing power [5][6] - The Ironwood chip features significant enhancements in memory and bandwidth, with each chip equipped with 192GB of high-bandwidth memory [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Broadcom holds a market share of 55%-60% in the ASIC market, with AI-related revenue reaching $4.1 billion, a 77% year-on-year increase [7] - Marvell's ASIC business is a core growth driver, with data center business accounting for approximately 75% of its revenue [9] - Domestic companies like Cambricon and Baidu are actively developing their own ASIC chips, with Baidu's Kunlun chip outperforming traditional GPUs in terms of cost and performance [11][12] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The increasing costs of advanced chip design pose challenges for companies looking to develop their own ASICs, with TSMC's 2nm wafers costing around $30,000 each [15] - The question arises whether every company truly needs its own CPU, given the high costs associated with chip design [16]

Core Insights - The latest corporate software spending survey by Bank of America indicates a slight downward adjustment in expected growth for enterprise software spending to approximately 9.9% for 2025, influenced by global tariff policies, yet AI-related software spending remains a top priority in corporate budgets [1][8][14] - The demand for AI applications is expected to drive significant growth in enterprise AI software budgets, with projections showing that AI-related spending will account for 27.7% of software budgets in 2025 and increase to 31.6% in 2026 [14][18] - Companies like Palantir, Nvidia, and AMD are positioned to benefit from the robust demand for AI infrastructure, with Palantir's stock surging over 65% since April, reflecting strong performance in the AI and data analytics sector [3][5][26] Group 1: AI Software Spending Trends - The survey reveals that AI software spending is becoming the fastest-growing investment direction for enterprises, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [7][18] - Companies are increasingly prioritizing AI investments in cloud infrastructure and back-office operations, with 60% of respondents indicating plans to invest in cloud AI software [23][25] - The shift in AI spending focus from front-end applications to back-office operations highlights a growing trend towards improving internal efficiencies [23][26] Group 2: Market Performance and Projections - The stock performance of AI-focused companies has been robust, with Nvidia and Broadcom seeing significant price increases, indicating strong market confidence in AI infrastructure [3][5] - The strong earnings reports and optimistic outlooks from AI application software providers like C3.ai and Palantir are driving investor interest and stock price increases [5][6] - Anthropic, a notable player in the AI space, has reported a substantial increase in annual revenue, showcasing the growing demand for generative AI applications in the business world [5][6]

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜高涵 ①【三大期指齐涨，半导体股多数上涨】截至发稿，道指期货涨0.15%、标普500指数期货涨0.09%、纳 指期货涨0.10%。半导体股盘前多数上涨，阿斯麦涨约2%，美光科技涨约1%，博通涨0.5%。 ②【"稳定币第一股"Circle即将登陆纽交所】数字货币巨头Circle预计将于当地时间6月5日在美国纽约证 券交易所上市，这将是稳定币领域的首个IPO（首次公开募股），Circle也将成为"稳定币第一股"。 Circle将IPO定价为每股31美元。这一价格高于预期的27至28美元区间。按该价格计算，Circle的市值将 达到69亿美元。 ③【亚马逊配送和物流业务获AI助力】当地时间6月4日，亚马逊表示，正在其Lab126设备部门组建一 个新团队，专注打造仓库机器人。亚马逊称，利用AI代理，这些机器人将能够卸载拖车，然后取回零 件进行维修。此外，亚马逊还在利用生成式AI为其送货司机创建更先进的地图，以便他们更高效地递 送包裹。截至发稿，亚马逊上涨0.88%。 ④【宝洁公司计划未来两年裁减7000个非制造业岗位】当地时间6月5日，宝洁公司表示，计划在未来两 年内裁减约7000个非制造 ...

Core Insights - The launch of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 switch chip is a significant advancement, offering a throughput capability equivalent to six previous generation chips, with a theoretical peak of 102 Tbps [1][2] - The initial customers for Tomahawk 6 include leading global cloud service providers and network equipment manufacturers, with full market entry expected in July [1] - The pricing for Tomahawk 6 is set to be below $20,000, with strong customer demand anticipated for building larger-scale computing clusters [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of the Tomahawk 6 chip is expected to drive the demand for 1.6T optical modules, which support single-wave 200G data exchange, thereby enhancing revenue growth and profitability for leading optical module manufacturers [1] - Historical trends indicate that the release of new generation switch chips often coincides with significant upgrades in optical module speeds, as seen with the previous generations Tomahawk 4 and 5 [1] - The Tomahawk 6 also features a co-packaged optical technology (CPO) version, which reduces power consumption and latency while improving long-term reliability, crucial for the development of large-scale AI networks [2]

Market Performance - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rose over 17% due to significant increases in overseas medium and heavy rare earth prices, which are expected to gradually transmit to the domestic market [1] - Zhixing Technology (01274) increased over 3% after securing a platform-based logistics vehicle contract with a leading domestic brand [1] - Weimeng Group (02013) surged over 9% as its upgraded Weimeng Guide Agent product is anticipated to benefit from the growth of WeChat e-commerce [1] - Zhaoke Ophthalmology-B (06622) gained over 8% following FDA approval for a new drug trial application for cyclosporine eye gel [1] - Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (09688) rose over 5% after reporting excellent data from the low-dose group of ZL-1310 [1] - Lianlian Digital (02598) saw a mid-session increase of over 5% as it partnered with BVNK to provide stablecoin payment solutions for its merchants [1] - Reading Group (00772) increased over 7% after acquiring a 26.67% stake in Yihua Kaitian, with its IP+AI strategy expected to unlock more value [1] - NIO opened nearly 4% higher, projecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.8%-15% for Q2 [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) rose over 6% as its Kecing AI recently launched a new 2.1 series model, with institutions optimistic about its profitability [1] - Meituan (03690) surged over 3%, reaching a nearly two-month high, with southbound funds continuing to accumulate for 13 consecutive days [1] US Market Highlights - Applied Digital (APLD.US), a stock related to Nvidia, surged nearly 30%, with a 94% increase over three trading days, as long-term contracts are expected to generate $7 billion in revenue [2] - Tesla (TSLA.US) fell 3.55% due to declines in both the Chinese and European automotive markets, with a 15% year-on-year drop in China's May wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles [2] - MongoDB (MDB.US) saw a nearly 15% increase in after-hours trading following better-than-expected Q1 results and an $800 million stock buyback plan [2] - Broadcom (AVGO.US) rose over 3% before earnings, reaching a new historical high, with Morgan Stanley stating that AI is operating at full speed, expecting strong Q2 results [3] - Meta increased over 3% as it was reported to be accelerating the development of ultra-lightweight open-headset projects [3] - Guidewire Software (GWRE.US) surged over 16% after exceeding Q3 earnings expectations and raising its guidance [3] - Dollar Tree (DLTR.US) fell over 8% after warning of potential 50% declines in adjusted earnings due to tariffs and weak consumer spending [3] - STMicroelectronics (STM.US) rose nearly 11% amid reports that Italy and France are considering splitting its joint management rights [3]

Group 1 - Broadcom has launched its most powerful data center switch chip, Tomahawk 6, aimed at capturing a larger share of the AI infrastructure market, with early customers deploying it to build the world's largest GPU clusters, indicating a significant market potential as over 100,000 GPUs are already deployed [1] - Envision AESC has officially started production at its battery super factory in Douai, France, with an initial capacity of 10 GWh, which will supply power batteries for leading international automakers like Renault, meeting the needs of 200,000 electric vehicles [1] - Samsung's yield for its 10nm sixth-generation DRAM (1c DRAM) has reportedly improved to 70%, with significant yield rates achieved under both cold and hot testing conditions [1] - A Chinese research team has successfully completed module-level verification of a star-ground quantum direct communication system, marking a significant step towards the construction of an integrated quantum direct communication network [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new generation Tomahawk 6 switch chip from Broadcom has started delivery, with strong customer demand, indicating a significant advancement in network technology and potential growth in related markets [1] Group 1: Product Development - Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 switch chip supports cluster deployment of up to one million XPUs, showcasing a substantial performance improvement [1] - The launch of the co-packaged optical technology (CPO) version of Tomahawk 6 is expected to accelerate the maturity of CPO solutions [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The mass production of Tomahawk 6 is anticipated to drive rapid growth in the demand for 1.6T optical modules and data center interconnect (DCI) solutions [1] - Companies involved in high-speed data communication modules, DCI interconnects, and CPO solutions are likely to benefit from these developments [1]