持续飙涨的黄金迎来多重利好催化。 据高盛的最新调查报告，看多黄金价格走势的投资者与看空者的比例接近8比1。这是黄金首次在高盛调 查中成为最受欢迎的多头交易。 此外，中国央行再度出手增持黄金。9月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至8月末，我国黄金储 备为7402万盎司（约2098吨），较7月末的7396万盎司增加6万盎司（约1.7吨），为连续第10个月增持 黄金。 美联储降息预期也持续升温。据CME美联储观察工具，目前市场预期美联储9月降息的概率为100%， 2025年全年或将降息75个基点（一周前为预期全年共降50个基点）。 受此影响，现货黄金价格持续走强，美东时间9月5日一度突破3600美元/盎司，创出历史新高。 高盛曾分析称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至 每盎司近5000美元的惊人水平。 中国央行出手 9月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年8月末，中国8月外汇储备为33221.54亿美元，较7 月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。 值得注意的是，中国央行连续第10个月增持黄金。当天更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至8月末，黄 金储备为74 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America economists predict two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, in September and December, each by 25 basis points, due to weak employment data in August [1] Group 1 - The new forecast includes three additional rate cuts in 2026, starting in June, each by 25 basis points [1] - This would lower the target policy rate range from 4.25%-4.5% to 3%-3.25% [1] - Previously, Bank of America anticipated that the Federal Reserve would wait until next year to take action [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America economists predict two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, in September and December, abandoning their previous hawkish stance due to weak labor market data and signs of a potential economic slowdown [1][2][5] Economic Data - August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the median economist estimate of 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - The downward revision of June and July non-farm payrolls by a total of 21,000, with June's data showing negative growth for the first time since 2020, indicates a concerning trend in employment [2][5] Monetary Policy Predictions - Bank of America now expects the Federal Reserve to lower the policy interest rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 3%-3.25% starting in June 2026, with three cuts of 25 basis points each [1] - The market has fully priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September following the disappointing employment report [2] Inflation Expectations - Economists at Bank of America anticipate that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation may reach 3% in August due to tariff effects, with expectations of further increases by year-end [1] Market Sentiment - The sentiment among large investment institutions has shifted, with Bank of America being one of the last to predict a September rate cut, contrasting with its earlier stance of no cuts for the year [5] - The recent employment reports have provided significant evidence for a slowdown in the U.S. economy, influencing market expectations for more aggressive monetary easing [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has shifted its stance from a hawkish monetary policy outlook to predicting two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, driven by weak labor market data and signs of a potential economic slowdown [1][2] Economic Predictions - Bank of America economists expect the U.S. inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, to reach 3% in August due to tariff effects, with further increases anticipated by year-end [2] - The new monetary policy forecast aligns with market expectations, indicating a 100% pricing for a September rate cut following disappointing employment data [2][3] Employment Data Insights - The August non-farm payrolls report showed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the median economist estimate of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2][3] - The downward revision of previous months' employment data, including a negative growth in June, has led to increased speculation about more aggressive rate cuts [2][3] Federal Reserve's Stance - The shift in Bank of America's predictions marks a departure from its previous stance of not expecting rate cuts until next year, highlighting a significant change in the economic outlook [1][3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for rate cuts, while others remain cautious due to persistent inflation concerns [4]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America economists have revised their monetary policy outlook, now expecting two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2023, specifically in September and December, due to weak labor market data and signs of a potential economic slowdown [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The August non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the median forecast of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - The previously weak employment figures for June and July were revised down by a total of 21,000 jobs, with June's data indicating a contraction for the first time since 2020 [2][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Predictions - Bank of America now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower the policy interest rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 3%-3.25% by mid-2026, with three cuts of 25 basis points each [1] - The economists also predict that inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, may rise to 3% in August due to tariff effects, potentially leading the Fed to pause rate cuts in October [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the disappointing employment data, swap contracts have fully priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, with increased expectations for further cuts in the remaining meetings of the year [2] - The sentiment among market participants has shifted towards anticipating more aggressive easing measures by the Fed, with some traders considering the possibility of a larger half-percentage point cut [2]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Bank of America projects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year. https://t.co/ynSyl1Mv7E ...

美国银行预计，在疲弱的就业报告公布后，美联储今年将进行两次降息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Major banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase experienced declines of over 2% [1] - Bank of America saw a decrease of 1.5% [1]

格隆汇9月5日｜花旗：将美国银行评级从中性上调至买入，将目标价从115美元上调至130美元。 ...

The rout in US bond markets is likely over in the absence of an inflation or growth shock, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett https://t.co/EnKQHMzh92 ...