Core Viewpoint - The report from Debon Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), projecting net profits of 23.5 billion, 25.5 billion, and 26.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 81.039 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.48% [1] - Pre-tax profit reached 17.764 billion yuan, up 28.07% year-on-year, while net profit was 12.361 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.02% increase [1] - The growth in the company's main products is driven by both volume and price increases [2] Group 2: Product Sales and Pricing - In the alumina segment, the company sold 6.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with an average price increase of approximately 10.3% to 3,242 yuan/ton (excluding VAT) [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, sales of aluminum alloy products reached 2.906 million tons, a 2.4% year-on-year increase, with an average price rise of about 2.7% to 17,853 yuan/ton (excluding VAT) [2] - The company sold 392,000 tons of aluminum processing products, up 3.5% year-on-year, with an average price increase of 2.9% to 20,615 yuan/ton (excluding VAT) [2] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - The operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry in Yunnan has remained high since June 2024, with companies no longer affected by power supply issues [3] - The company is advancing its green energy strategy, enhancing its competitive edge through a diversified and complementary new power supply model [3] Group 4: Market Confidence - The company has announced a new share buyback plan with a total amount of 234 million HKD, representing 0.11% of the issued shares as of the announcement date [4] - The timing of the buyback aligns with the company's strong business performance, which is expected to further enhance its image and boost investor confidence [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, allowing it to benefit from both upstream and downstream operations in the electrolytic aluminum sector [5] - With the anticipated increase in the proportion of green electricity aluminum, the company's profitability and social contribution are expected to continue expanding [5]

Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both volume and price of products, with aluminum alloy sales reaching approximately 2.906 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, and alumina sales at 6.368 million tons, a 15.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy and alumina were 17,853 yuan/ton and 3,243 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 10.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic aluminum price as of August 25, 2025, was 20,820 yuan/ton, representing a 4.7% increase since the beginning of the year, supported by a declining US dollar index and sustained industry demand [1] - The forecast for domestic aluminum consumption in 2025 is 54.3549 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46%, and a projected growth of 3.06% when excluding export products [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Corporate Actions - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, demonstrating confidence in its future prospects and long-term value [2] - The company declared a dividend of 1.02 Hong Kong cents per share on June 13, 2025, with a total dividend payout of 1.61 Hong Kong cents per share for the 2024 fiscal year, compared to 0.63 Hong Kong cents per share in 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [2] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The aluminum smelting industry is approaching inclusion in the national carbon market, with guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions reporting and verification being publicly solicited for feedback [2] - The carbon emissions from producing electrolytic aluminum using thermal power are approximately 13 tons per ton of aluminum, while using hydropower results in only 1.8 tons, indicating potential cost pressures for thermal power aluminum production [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 3.4% [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios based on the adjusted profit forecasts are 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5 for the respective years, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3]

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年8月26日该公司斥资5007.71万港元回购203.4万 股，回购价格为每股24.62港元。 ...

格隆汇8月27日丨中国宏桥(01378.HK)发布公告，2025年8月26日耗资5007.71万港元回购203.4万股，回 购价格每股24.62港元。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國宏橋集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年8月27日 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年8月22日 | | 9,621,087,327 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 81.04 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both sales volume and prices of aluminum products, alongside a decline in raw material costs [1]. - The domestic aluminum price showed resilience, increasing by 4.7% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for continued growth in aluminum consumption driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and construction [2]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan of at least 3 billion HKD, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan, marking increases of 10.1% and 35% year-on-year respectively [1]. - The sales volume for aluminum alloy products was approximately 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, while alumina sales volume reached 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% [1]. Market Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is expected to reach 54.35 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% [2]. - Key growth areas include new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning, which are anticipated to support aluminum consumption [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10.53%, 7.57%, and 7.91% [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5, reflecting the company's strong position in the aluminum industry [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The report highlights that the electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with China Hongqiao as a leading integrated player driving this trend [5][7] - The company has shown remarkable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1316.85% since the low point in March 2020, and a year-to-date increase of 124.49% as of August 22, 2025 [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year increased by 35.02% year-on-year, benefiting from lower coal prices and a low base from last year's impairment profits [5][6] - The average dividend yield from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 10.48%, with a high of 13.69% in 2024, showcasing the company's strong dividend attributes [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company has a robust cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing from 17.779 billion to 33.983 billion from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The integrated supply chain from bauxite to aluminum processing helps mitigate price fluctuations across different products [6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the electrolytic aluminum sector is entering a phase of profitability and valuation recovery, with potential for further growth in dividend yields as aluminum prices rise [7] - The anticipated annualized net profit for the first half of the year is projected at 24.72 billion, with a reference dividend payout ratio of 62.03%, leading to a dividend yield of 7.09% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Hongqiao's stock price has over an 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days due to favorable market conditions and company actions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, which positively impacted commodity prices [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption off-season is expected to lead to increased demand during the consumption peak season [1] - Lower inventory levels and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts are anticipated to support aluminum prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Actions - China Hongqiao recently announced a stock buyback, which is expected to drive the stock price up in the short term [1]

瑞银发表报告指，中国宏桥中期核心盈利表现好过该行及市场预期，并有望于2026年起减少杠杆，因主 要项目建设将于届时完工。同时，公司指引派息比率不低于63%，并追加30亿港元股份回购计划，料将 增强市场信心。该行将2025及26年每股盈利预测分别上调22%及5%，目标价由21港元上调至26.8港元， 重申"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China Hongqiao (01378) achieved a revenue of 81.039 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.361 billion yuan, up 35.02%, primarily due to the rise in alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices [1] - The company is expected to see net profits of 24.259 billion, 26.739 billion, and 29.186 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.43%, 10.22%, and 9.15% respectively, and EPS projected at 2.56, 2.82, and 3.07 yuan per share [1] - In H1 2025, the company reported stable production and sales, with aluminum alloy product sales of 2.906 million tons (up 2.4% year-on-year), aluminum processing product sales of 392,000 tons (up 3.4%), and alumina sales of 6.368 million tons (up 15.6%) [1] Group 2 - The acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Yunnan Hongtai increased the electrolytic aluminum equity capacity, with the company's stake rising from 67.55% to 90.07%, enhancing equity capacity by 457,000 tons [2] - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting confidence in its development [2]