期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铜铝 | 周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观回暖，有色普涨 核心观点 铜：日元加息落地，宏观回暖，铜价增仓上行 上周铜价先抑后扬，持仓量随价格持续回升。宏观层面，日元加 息落地，宏观氛围回暖，有色普涨，美元反弹给予铜价压力。产业层 面，高铜价抑制消费，基差和月差持续走弱，期价近弱远强格局明 显。此外，据 SMM 了解，中国铜冶炼厂代表与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。短期宏观 推动铜 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold reaching $4155 per ounce, marking a three-day increase [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 40 days, with President Trump indicating a potential resolution is near [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points, with a 50 basis point cut deemed appropriate [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 12th consecutive month, supporting the macroeconomic foundation for gold prices [1] - Citic Securities identifies five categories of downward risks for gold prices, which are currently not significant [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Analysts suggest focusing on the entire non-ferrous metals sector rather than individual metals, with positive macroeconomic expectations from U.S.-China trade talks [2] - Continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and potential liquidity improvements are expected to benefit copper and aluminum prices [2] - The lithium sector is experiencing strong demand due to energy storage needs and anticipated purchasing tax changes for electric vehicles, leading to increased lithium prices [2] Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) saw an early gain of over 1% but later adjusted to a decline of 0.99%, maintaining a strong technical position above moving averages [3] - Key stocks in the ETF include Guocheng Mining and Huayu Mining, which have shown significant gains, while companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Tianqi Lithium have faced declines [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by varying degrees of market performance, suggesting a diversified investment approach may be beneficial [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - UBS reports that the fundamentals of China's copper and aluminum metal industry are stable with a positive outlook [1] - Industrial metal prices are supported by macroeconomic factors rather than physical market supply tightness, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in aluminum trade, and potential additional stimulus measures from China [1][2] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with short-term demand slowdown risks easing and mid-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remaining attractive [1][2] Group 2: Copper Outlook - The copper market fundamentals remain stable, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors despite reduced trade due to US tariffs in Q3 [2] - UBS expects that by 2026/2027, copper prices will rise due to limited mine supply growth, pressure on refined output, strong long-term growth drivers (electrification, technology), and a recovery in traditional demand drivers [2] - UBS raises its copper price forecasts for 2025/2026 from $4.24/lb to $4.37/lb and from $4.68/lb to $4.80/lb, translating to $9,634/ton and $10,582/ton respectively [2] Group 3: Aluminum Outlook - Aluminum demand is mixed, but supply is constrained, with limited production growth in China and elsewhere [3] - UBS raises its aluminum price forecasts for 2025/2026 from $1.11/lb to $1.17/lb and from $1.16/lb to $1.18/lb, which corresponds to $2,579/ton and $2,600/ton respectively [3] - Following the upward revision of copper, aluminum, and gold price forecasts, UBS has increased the earnings expectations and target prices for related concept stocks, including a 5% increase in earnings expectations for China Hongqiao and a 4% increase in target price to HKD 28 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly discussing the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant attention on the upcoming monetary policy decision that could impact various asset classes and present investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - CICC believes there is a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts this month, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 90%, and probabilities for cuts in October and December also above 70% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may help alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for a "moderately loose monetary policy" [4]. - A weaker dollar resulting from the rate cut could lead to a relative appreciation of the RMB, impacting export-oriented and overseas enterprises, while reducing repayment pressure for companies with dollar-denominated debt [4]. - The rate cut is expected to promote global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets as global liquidity is released [5]. Group 3: Stock Market Focus - CICC highlights several stock market sectors to watch, including foreign-invested heavy stocks, which may see marginal impacts from global capital reallocation due to the Fed's rate cut [6]. - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation, particularly those with significant dollar-denominated debt, are also of interest [7]. - Sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as finance and certain consumer goods, may present short-term opportunities if growth-stabilizing policies are intensified [8]. Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - CICC anticipates upward price movements for copper and aluminum, driven by macroeconomic shifts and strong domestic demand, with the Fed's rate cut potentially acting as a catalyst [10]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to remain robust, with no signs of a drastic decline in demand during the peak season [11]. - In the gold market, the Fed's rate cut expectations may provide short-term support, particularly if the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing [12][14]. - For oil, CICC has adjusted its global supply surplus expectations and maintains a price range forecast of $65-$70 per barrel for Brent crude, citing various market dynamics [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].