Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Hongqiao [6][5][16] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance for 2025 shows a significant increase in net profit by 35% year-on-year, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy and alumina products [6][5] - The acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Yunnan Hongtai is expected to enhance the company's equity capacity by 484,000 tons, which could substantially increase net profit [6][5] - A new share buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion reflects the company's confidence in its future performance [6][5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 133.624 billion, with a growth rate of 1%, and is expected to reach RMB 160.760 billion by 2025, reflecting a 2.9% increase [5][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from RMB 11.461 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.533 billion in 2025, representing a 9.7% increase [5][7] - Earnings per share are expected to rise from RMB 1.21 in 2023 to RMB 2.55 in 2025 [5][7] - The company's return on equity is projected to remain strong, with rates of 20.8% in 2025 [5][7]

摩根大通发表研报指，中国宏桥目前的股息收益率为8%，由于其ROE高于同业，且利润创下历史新 高，相信公司能够维持溢价。摩通认为，中国宏桥的股价仍有进一步上升空间，特别是公司宣布新一轮 股份回购不低于30亿港元，并基于产能上限临近，对下半年的铝价和利润持建设性看法。该行将公司目 标价由17港元上调至26.5港元，评级为"增持"。 ...

美银最新研报指出，中国电解铝价格长期底部将稳固在2万元/吨上方，而龙头企业中国宏桥(01378)凭借 多重优势，获得该行重申"买入"评级，目标价从20港元上调至26港元，并将其列为2025下半年首选标 的。 需求端，电网投资与汽车轻量化(新能源车用铝量提升)将推动2025下半年至2026年需求增长2-3%，完全 抵消地产与光伏领域疲软。供给端，尽管全球规划产能达750万吨，但印尼等地的电力瓶颈可能延缓投 产进度。此外，再生铝难以弥补2025-26年的结构性缺口，而几内亚铝土矿政策动荡(采矿许可证撤销事 件)进一步强化资源约束，氧化铝成本支撑显著。这种供需紧平衡状态将持续支撑铝价高位运行，美银 预测2025年铝价将达2.05万元/吨。 美银指出，中国凭借低电价与煤炭成本优势，2025-26年成本差距或进一步扩大，这使得宏桥等一体化 生产商的利润稳定性显著提升。预计2025-26年中国铝企吨利润将维持在3000-4000元，远超历史均值 (1000-2000元)，行业周期性明显弱化，为估值重估奠定基础。 供需紧平衡支撑高铝价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to stabilize above 20,000 yuan/ton in the long term, with China Hongqiao (01378) being favored due to multiple advantages, leading to a "buy" rating and a target price increase from 20 HKD to 26 HKD [1] - The report highlights that China's low electricity prices and coal cost advantages will likely widen the cost gap further in 2025-26, enhancing profit stability for integrated producers like Hongqiao [1] - It is projected that the profit per ton for Chinese aluminum companies will remain between 3,000-4,000 yuan in 2025-26, significantly above the historical average of 1,000-2,000 yuan, indicating a weakening of industry cyclicality and laying the groundwork for valuation reassessment [1] Group 2 - Demand for aluminum is expected to grow by 2-3% from the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by investments in power grids and the increased use of aluminum in lightweight vehicles, which will offset weaknesses in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors [2] - On the supply side, despite a global planned capacity of 7.5 million tons, power bottlenecks in regions like Indonesia may delay production progress [2] - The structural supply gap in 2025-26 cannot be compensated by recycled aluminum, and political instability in Guinea regarding bauxite mining licenses further tightens resource constraints, significantly supporting alumina costs [2]

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，该公司于2025年8月19日斥资9328.65万港元回购398.15万股股份，每股回购价格为23.38-23.46港元。 （原标题：中国宏桥(01378)8月19日斥资9328.65万港元回购398.15万股） ...

中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，该公司于2025年8月19日斥资9328.65万港元回购398.15万股股份，每股回购 价格为23.38-23.46港元。 ...

格隆汇8月20日丨中国宏桥(01378.HK)发布公告，2025年8月19日耗资9328.65万港元回购398.15万股，回 购价格每股23.38-23.46港元。 ...

公司名稱： 中國宏橋集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年8月20日 FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased aluminum prices and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Segment Performance - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Revenue reached 51.88 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [1]. - **Alumina**: Revenue was 20.66 billion yuan, a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Revenue reached 8.07 billion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5%. The average selling price was 20,615 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase [1]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion Hong Kong dollars on share buybacks in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars for buybacks in the future, indicating strong confidence in its development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a stable high dividend payout rate, with a dividend rate of 63.4% for 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [3]. - A decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance cost advantages and improve earnings elasticity [3]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [3]. - The company is also expanding into iron ore resources through its stake in the Guinea iron ore project, which may provide additional investment returns [3]. Investment Recommendations - The upward trend in aluminum prices and significant cost advantages are expected to enhance earnings elasticity, with projected net profits of 24.93 billion yuan, 25.89 billion yuan, and 27.24 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times [4].

机构：中金公司 研究员：Zheng WANG/Ding QI/Yan CHEN 1H25 results in line with our expectations The firm announced its 1H25 results: Revenue rose 10.1% YoY to about Rmb81.04bn; gross profit grew 16.9% YoY to about Rmb20.81bn; attributable net profit rose 35.0% YoY to over Rmb12.36bn. The 1H25 financials were in line with our expectations. The firm's earnings hit a historical high, driven by rising product sales volume and prices. The firm's sales volume of aluminum alloy rose 2.4% YoY to nearly 2.91mnt, with the ASP up ...