机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/夏嘉励 事件： 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计25 年调整后归母净利润为8-9 亿元，低于预期，较24 年调整后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务8 亿元）对应同比下滑21-30%。2）预 计25 年调整前归母净亏损为7.5-8.5 亿元，同比24 年亏损扩大；主要由于新丽传媒计提商誉减值约18 亿 元。 投资要点： 新丽传媒项目波动导致公司25 年利润下滑。一方面，部分剧集延期，25 年全年仅上线2部剧（《扫毒风 暴》《哑舍》）；另一方面，电影《情圣3》亏损，根据猫眼专业版，总票房仅4262 万。新丽传媒仍然 为国内头部剧集制作公司，26 年已上线剧集《年少有为》，关注后续项目排播。新丽传媒25 年已计提 剩余全部商誉减值，减值支出不影响调整后利润口径，不影响现金流。 在线业务及阅文自有版权运营业务25 年基本符合预期。阅文作为付费网文领军，在线业务预计平稳。 公司当前核心看点版权运营业务25 年增速较好，经营向上。衍生品、短剧、漫剧等更"短平快"的IP 变 现方式，可平滑长剧电影产品周期波动。 漫剧等有助于阅文从"爆款驱动"转向 ...

叶可以分公司中 | 市场数据: | 2026年02月12日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 38.32 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 46.88/22.40 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 391.43 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,021.48 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) -年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberq 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com (00772) 新丽传媒拖累 25 年利润，版权运营延续向上趋势 事件: 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计 25 年调整后归母净利润为 8-9 亿元，低于预期，较 24 年调整 ● 后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒 3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务 8 亿元) 对应同比下滑 21-30%。2) 预计 25 年调整前归母净亏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting an adjusted net profit of 800-900 million yuan for 2025, which is below expectations and represents a year-on-year decline of 21-30% compared to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to New Classics Media, which is expected to report a loss of 140 million yuan in 2025 due to goodwill impairment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [7] - The online business and the company's proprietary copyright operations are expected to perform in line with expectations, with a good growth rate in copyright operations [7] - The company is transitioning from a "hit-driven" model to an "IP pool monetization" strategy, leveraging AI to reduce production costs and time for animated adaptations [7] - The company has launched a global toy co-creation plan to enhance its derivative product business, collaborating with top artists to incubate original IP [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion yuan - 2024: 8.121 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.265 billion yuan - 2026E: 8.002 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.661 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 1.130 billion yuan - 2024: 1.142 billion yuan - 2025E: 843 million yuan - 2026E: 1.452 billion yuan - 2027E: 1.648 billion yuan [9][10] - The report anticipates a target price-to-earnings ratio of 30x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 49 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25% [7]

野村发表研报，将阅文集团评级升至"买入"，目标价由33港元上调至47港元。该行指，阅文集团营运内 地最大的在线文学平台之一，已累积规模庞大的用户群，以及有才华的作家社群。多年来，公司积累了 大量优质IP，其在线阅读业务持续产生稳健的现金流，而IP经营业务则成为收入增长动力。为进一步释 放其庞大IP库的价值，公司已将其电视剧、动画、漫画及游戏的授权业务范围，拓展至IP周边商品、短 剧及动画剧。该行现时对公司的短剧及动画剧业务增长前景更趋乐观，相信该业务将受惠于行业顺风， 动力有望增强。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，阅文集团(00772)逆势涨近8%，截至发稿，涨6.11%，报40.68港元，成交额2.21亿港 元。 消息面上，近日，字节跳动旗下Seedance2.0火爆海外，马斯克在其社交平台X转发评论Seedance 2.0相 关内容，并表示模型发展速度太快(It's happening fast)。中银国际指出，根据新华网2026年1月数据，阅 文集团已有十多部作品播放量破亿，80多部漫剧作品播放量破千万；知乎盐言故事改编漫剧播放量突破 10亿。该行认为，随着Seedance2.0发布，漫剧制作成本进一步降低，制作效果进一步提高，行业有望 迎来加速发展。 财通证券表示，随着Seedance2.0所展现的惊艳能力，在AI实现技术平权后，漫剧行业将回归内容行业 的本质，优质内容将成为决定一部漫剧是否爆款的核心因素。参考海外，OpenAI的Sora和迪士尼的合 作，已提供了初步的探索方向。国内来看，在AI漫剧产业链中，也已在做类似的模式探索，包括阅文 集团、掌阅科技和中文在线等，围绕自身IP资源搭建了AI漫剧平台。该行认为，在视频模型能力持续升 级的背景下，IP将成为AI漫剧平台重要的护城河，也将是影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a Non-IFRS net profit of 800 to 900 million yuan for 2025, despite expecting an IFRS net loss of 750 to 850 million yuan primarily due to an 1.8 billion yuan goodwill impairment related to New Li Media [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The company plans to announce its 2025 performance on March 17, 2025, with a projected revenue of 7.279 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year decline [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 855 million yuan, reflecting a 25.1% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The company expects a net loss of 150 million yuan from New Li Media due to fewer drama releases and lackluster box office performance [1] Group 2: Business Development - The copyright operation new business is progressing well, with profits outside of New Li Media expected to increase by 25% [1] - Online business revenue is projected to remain stable at 4.045 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - The company anticipates that revenue from copyright operations, excluding New Li Media, will reach 2.585 billion yuan, marking a 5.5% increase, driven by new business initiatives such as short dramas and IP derivatives [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - New Li Media has a rich reserve of dramas but faces uncertainties; the company is actively expanding its AI comic drama business [2] - The drama "Youth Has Its Own Way" is set to air on January 31, 2026, with additional projects in the pipeline [2] - The company plans to launch an upgraded "Creative Partner Program" in Q4 2025, introducing AIGC tools like "Comic Drama Assistant" [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to losses from New Li Media, the company has revised down its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 38.2%, 7.1%, and 2.5% to 855 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.619 billion yuan respectively [2] - The current price corresponds to a Non-IFRS P/E of 24.7 and 22.0 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 43.5 HKD, reflecting an 8.5% upside potential based on the company's IP and AI comic drama development prospects [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the stock price of China Literature Group experienced a significant decline following a profit warning announcement, indicating investor concern over future financial performance [1][4] - On February 10, China Literature Group issued a profit warning, projecting a loss attributable to equity holders of approximately 750 million to 850 million RMB for the full year of 2025, which represents a substantial increase from the loss of 209 million RMB in 2024 [4] - The company attributed the expected loss primarily to goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of New Classics Media in 2018, clarifying that this impairment is a non-cash expense and will not affect cash flow, nor will it be included in non-IFRS financial metrics [4]

Group 1 - The release of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 video model marks a pivotal moment in the global entertainment industry, indicating the widespread adoption of AI-generated content (AIGC) in short videos, micro-dramas, and future mid-to-long video platforms [2][6] - The disruption will begin at the content production level, as the enhanced model allows for the visualization of stories through one-click prompts, potentially transforming distribution channels and testing existing players' ability to integrate and monetize this new wave of engaging content [2][6] - The micro-drama industry and IP owners are expected to benefit in the near term due to their defensive positioning, with companies like China Literature (00772) poised to gain from the demand for mid-tail IPs and their own micro-drama operations and investments [2][6] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) released its Keling 3.0 model on February 5, showcasing improvements in controllability, character consistency, visual realism, and multilingual generation capabilities, making it a strong competitor in the market [3][7] - The competition for generative video models is intense globally, with over 10 major companies, including Google, Vidu, xAI, OpenAI, Alibaba-W (09988), ByteDance, Kuaishou, PixVerse, Lightricks, Runway, MiniMax-WP (00100), and Luma Labs, vying for leadership [3][7] - Long-term, it is believed that ByteDance possesses a full-stack capability ranging from cloud services (Giant Engine) and toolkits (CapCut) to distribution platforms (Douyin/Hongguo) [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuewen Group, has issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of 750 million to 850 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to its acquisition of New Classics Media [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a net loss of 209 million yuan, which is attributed to the underperformance of New Classics Media [1][2]. - The board anticipates a non-IFRS net profit of 800 million to 900 million yuan for fiscal year 2025, a decrease from the 1.142 billion yuan profit in 2024, mainly due to reduced profits from New Classics Media [1]. Group 2: Goodwill Impairment - The company will record a goodwill impairment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, as the recoverable amount of goodwill related to New Classics Media is assessed to be lower than its book value [1][2]. - Following this impairment, the goodwill associated with New Classics Media will be fully written down, eliminating the need for further impairment provisions [1]. Group 3: Strategic Perspective - From a strategic standpoint, the company emphasizes the importance of high-quality long-form video content in building IP value and emotional engagement, which is crucial for its IP ecosystem [2]. - The acquisition of New Classics Media for 15.5 billion yuan in 2018 raised concerns about its valuation, and the company’s stock price fell following the announcement [2]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - Analysts suggest that the impairment may help clarify asset uncertainties and optimize the company's overall asset structure, although it may pressure short-term performance [3]. - The company faces industry challenges in balancing content quality with commercial pacing and in reconstructing IP value in a new ecosystem [3].

阅文集团上市后只有2020、2024年净亏损，恰在这两年阅文都有大额商誉减值。10日晚，$阅文集团(HK0772)发布盈利预警，公司全年净亏损7.5亿至8.5 亿，原因依旧是商誉减值！不过股市炒预期，商誉风险出清后资产质量会大幅提升，反倒是有助于阅文形成基本面向上拐点。 2020年新丽传媒计提40.16亿元商誉减值及3.9亿商标减值。2024年阅文集团再计提新丽传媒11.04亿减值。 01 新丽传媒商誉清零有迹可循，包袱全部出清乃"毕其功于一役" 商誉是企业在并购过程中支付价格超过被购买企业净资产公允价值的部分，反映的是企业品牌、团队、技术等无形资产的超额盈利能力。商誉减值不会损失 现金流，更像是对之前付出收购溢价的集中清算！ 内容精品化趋势下，影视剧制作成本水涨船高，以至于新丽传媒毛利率承压，触发商誉减值。新丽可比公司柠萌影视、稻草熊近年来也陷入盈利困境，现市 值仅为发行市值的十分之一左右，新丽传媒商誉减值的"达摩克利斯之剑"落下只是时间问题。 | | 商譽 | 不競爭協議 | 商標 | 内容版權 | 軟件 | 域名 | 合計 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...