叶可以分公司中 | 市场数据: | 2026年02月12日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 38.32 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 46.88/22.40 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 391.43 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,021.48 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) -年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberq 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com (00772) 新丽传媒拖累 25 年利润，版权运营延续向上趋势 事件: 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计 25 年调整后归母净利润为 8-9 亿元，低于预期，较 24 年调整 ● 后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒 3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务 8 亿元) 对应同比下滑 21-30%。2) 预计 25 年调整前归母净亏 ...

不只是春节消费热度可期，今年开年以来，全国消费已经有了走稳的迹象，尤其是服务消费超越商品消 费，成为真正的拉动力。 具体来看，下面这四大消费热潮，将关系到你今年的钱包。 第一，旅游热。今年元旦假期3天时间，全国国内出游达到1.42亿人次，国内出游总花费超800亿元，其 中，广东在旅游人次和金额上都是全国第一。非遗游、冰雪游等特色旅游大火。元旦假期间，"非遗"主 题旅游搜索及预订热度环比增长85%，洛阳、泉州等城市成了热门目的地。国内热门航线TOP20中，冰 雪游航线占比达四成左右。值得一提的是，想玩冰雪的人不只是往尔滨走，还挤满了广州、深圳等地的 滑雪场。 史上最长春节要来了！春运刚开始第一周，每天出行人次预计超2亿，相当于每7个中国人，就有1个"在 路上"。 这人一多，对消费是个大利好。飞猪数据显示，春节假期中段出行服务预订量同比增长超30%，高星级 酒店预订量大增近70%。热腾腾的"全国网上年货节"也已启动，长达45天，屏幕前的你想好要买什么了 吗？ 第三，情绪热。能戳中当代人，尤其是年轻人情绪的商品，最有可能成为"顶流"。去年是Labubu、哪 吒、"大湾鸡"大火，今年一开年，义乌"哭哭马"公仔就逆袭成 ...

这股风潮的出圈，反映对外开放从"器物互通"到"标准对接"再到"文化交融"的进阶。 上世纪八九十年代，我们打开国门，逐步融入全球产业链，彼时中外互动多停留于商品贸易、技术交流 层面。新时代以来，中国的开放迈入制度型开放新阶段，自贸区网络不断织密，"一带一路"倡议架起合 作之桥，中欧班列驰骋在亚欧大陆上，中国与世界的互动更加频繁、联系更加紧密。 "成为中国人"的热潮印证，中国的开放已抵达文化共情的新境界。过境免签政策让外国友人轻松触摸真 实中国，短视频平台让一杯热水、一套养生功法跨越山海找到拥趸，中国的开放不再只是政策的放开、 市场的打开，更是生活方式与文化理念的真诚敞开。 这股风潮的出圈，彰显中华文化亘古亘今的生命力。 "成为中国人"热潮涌动，说到底是外国网友对中式生活智慧的认同，而这份智慧根植于中华文明的沃 土。喝热水的养生习惯，源于中医"温阳散寒"的健康理念；八段锦的风靡，蕴藏着道家"天人合一"的养 生哲学；多彩的饮食文化，承载着"民以食为天"的朴素追求。这些看似不起眼的日常，是中华文化历经 岁月洗礼形成的瑰宝。从诸子百家的思想智慧，到唐宋诗词的人文情怀，再到当代中国和合共生的开放 理念，中华文化始终在守正 ...

短剧带来的"鲶鱼效应"已超越网文，正在重塑文化产业的竞争版图。在影视领域，短剧正打破明星中心 制，不少没有流量演员加持的作品，凭借优质叙事也能收获数十亿播放。此外，短剧"免费观看+广告 分账"模式也推动市场结构变化，倒逼长视频平台调整内容策略，逐步形成长短互补的业态。 当网文作者还在为新的爆点、题材苦思冥想时，"改编通知"与版权费却在纷至沓来。由于题材、走红逻 辑相近，近段时间越来越多短剧制作方加紧开挖网文这座"题材富矿"，甚至一些还在连载的网文也成为 改编蓝本，让短剧成为网文作者的"最强催更者"。 在文旅与非遗领域，短剧成为创新表达的重要载体。例如，国家广电总局"微短剧+"行动计划实施以 来，《仙进奉》助力广东增城荔枝打造文化IP，《银城雨巷》让益阳明清古巷成为网红打卡地。与此同 时，"新中式叙事"类短剧及ReelShort等平台的出海尝试，则让短剧吸引到大量海外活跃用户，开辟了视 听文化出口新航道。 如今，"赘婿""战神"等传统题材网文流量下滑，却在短剧赛道大红大紫；有的网文在改编短剧的带动 下，日读人数暴涨300%。这背后是一场由短剧引发的文化生产与消费变革。凭借轻量化、高节奏、强 情绪的特性，短剧不仅 ...

Group 1 - The media sector has shown strong performance, with the index reaching 1033.55 points and a daily increase of 3.42%, indicating a significant upward trend in stock prices [1] - Several companies, including Tianlong Group, People’s Daily, and Inertia Media, have experienced stock price surges, with Inertia Media achieving six limit-up days within seven trading sessions [1] - Companies like Yidian Tianxia and Zhongwen Online have reported significant stock price deviations, with Yidian Tianxia's stock price increasing over 30% and Zhongwen Online's stock price deviating by 32% over three consecutive trading days, while both companies stated that their operational conditions remain stable [1] Group 2 - The rise of the media sector is primarily supported by AI developments, with companies like Yue Media implementing AI technologies in advertising and content creation, leading to cost reductions and efficiency improvements [2] - The commercialization of AI technology is seen as a fundamental support for the media sector's growth, with companies transitioning from technology development to scalable monetization, thus changing market profitability expectations [2] - Policy measures, including regulations and support for digital content export, are strengthening the foundation for the media industry's development, providing new growth opportunities for companies [2] Group 3 - The dual regulatory approach is reshaping the competitive landscape of the media industry, with regulations aimed at eliminating low-quality productions and promoting resource concentration among compliant and capable companies [3] - The cultural export policy is providing additional market opportunities for media companies, particularly for AI-enhanced digital content, which is expected to have improved efficiency and commercial value in overseas markets [3] - Technological breakthroughs in display technology, such as Hisense's new RGB-Mini LED technology, are providing hardware support for media content presentation, further enhancing the industry's capabilities [3] Group 4 - The integration of AI technology across the media industry is expected to be a core development theme in the long term, optimizing production efficiency in various content areas and shifting production models from human-driven to technology-driven [4] - The sustainability of the media sector's performance will depend on companies' ability to convert AI technology into continuous profit growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural transformation of the Chinese economy, focusing on the transition from production-oriented to wealth-oriented growth, and the importance of leveraging technological innovation to drive future growth opportunities leading up to 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Transformation and Opportunities - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal point for global restructuring, where China's strength will be reassessed across multiple dimensions including technology, trade, governance, and security [4]. - China has three major advantages for economic growth: the potential for GDP per capita to reach levels of developed countries, the new technology revolution focusing on digital and green technologies, and the benefits of a super-large market economy [6]. - The focus for 2026 will be on short-term demand expansion and risk control, while also promoting an innovation-driven growth model that emphasizes modern industrial systems and technological self-reliance [7]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Innovations - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, with a shift from a "favorable wind" era to a new phase characterized by technological competition and globalization [19]. - The Chinese manufacturing sector is expanding globally, with companies adapting to new trade rules and focusing on localizing supply chains [10]. - The rise of new industries such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals is seen as a foundation for future economic growth, reflecting a systematic reassessment of growth paradigms [13]. Group 3: Financial and Market Dynamics - The capital market in China requires a significant ideological shift to better support long-term technological innovations and address mismatches in investment strategies [13]. - The banking sector is diversifying its global presence, moving from traditional markets to emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure and resource development [11]. - The trend of "investing in people" is highlighted as essential for stimulating consumer markets, moving away from a focus solely on physical investments [7].

Core Insights - The expansion of the Hangzhou Comprehensive Bonded Zone is a key initiative to enhance the city's high-level opening-up and boost the outward-oriented economy, providing new momentum for economic and social development [1] - Hangzhou's foreign trade has transformed from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by technological breakthroughs and market diversification [1][2] - The city's foreign trade enterprises are focusing on innovation to build competitiveness and avoid risks associated with single markets, resulting in significant growth in exports [2][5] Foreign Trade Performance - From January to November 2025, Hangzhou's total import and export value reached 823.7 billion yuan, with exports of 587.8 billion yuan, marking an 8.8% year-on-year increase, outpacing national and provincial averages [1] - High-tech product exports reached 90.5 billion yuan, while electromechanical product exports exceeded 281.7 billion yuan, both showing growth rates significantly higher than the overall export growth [2] Industry Highlights - Zhejiang Chunfeng Power Co., Ltd. exemplifies success in high-end equipment manufacturing, with motorcycle exports growing from 8,000 units in 2020 to 126,000 units in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 69.99% [3] - The average export price of Chunfeng's products increased from $3,000 in 2020 to $6,500 in 2025, with exports to Central Asia and Southeast Asia growing by 120% [3] - Specialized and innovative enterprises are making significant strides in niche markets, with companies like Xianlin 3D Technology and Xuxian Technology achieving substantial international sales [3][4] Market Diversification - Hangzhou's strategy of market diversification has proven effective, with exports to Belt and Road countries reaching 291.9 billion yuan, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, accounting for 49.7% of total exports [5] - The city has expanded its trade partnerships, with 56 partners achieving trade volumes exceeding 1 billion yuan, including new partners like Iraq and Kazakhstan [5] Supportive Policies and Platforms - The city has organized 406 outbound delegations and participated in 643 overseas exhibitions, generating over 50 billion yuan in intended orders [6] - Cross-border e-commerce has become a key driver for new market expansion, with export growth rates reaching 29% and significant increases in cargo volumes [6] Role of Private Sector - Private enterprises play a crucial role in Hangzhou's foreign trade, with exports from private companies reaching 451.2 billion yuan, accounting for 76.8% of total exports [7] Emerging Industries - New industries such as renewable energy and digital economy are driving export growth, with electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries seeing exports increase significantly [8] - Cultural exports have also gained traction, with the cultural industry’s added value reaching 344.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.3% increase since 2020 [9] Conclusion - Hangzhou's dual focus on technological innovation and market diversification has led to a robust foreign trade performance, with significant growth in both traditional and emerging sectors [10] - The city aims to continue enhancing its high-tech industries and expand its global trade footprint, contributing to its status as a key player in the global economy [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Migu Reading Creator Conference successfully concluded in Jiaxing, focusing on the theme "Seeing Every Ray of Light" and gathering over a hundred web writers, short drama screenwriters, film production teams, and industry partners [1][3] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - The conference featured the "Eternal Flame" award ceremony, recognizing outstanding creators, partners, and quality works across web literature, short dramas, and AI dramas [3] - Awards included the "New Branch Plan" for supporting authors, "Annual Anticipated Adaptation Work," "Annual Influential Author," and various other categories highlighting excellence in content creation and production [3] Group 2: Future Policies and Support - Migu announced the 2026 Creator Support Plan, emphasizing a comprehensive upgrade in support for web literature, short dramas, and AI drama creators, including new competitions and policies [5][7] - The "Migu Cup" writing competition will feature a prize pool exceeding 2 million yuan, with individual awards reaching up to 500,000 yuan, setting a new high for similar events [5] Group 3: Collaboration and Content Development - Migu is launching several key projects to enhance IP collaboration, including the tenth "Migu Cup" creative competition in partnership with nearly 20 institutions to discover quality creative talent [12] - Initiatives like the "Follow the Micro Short Drama to Exercise" project aim to explore innovative integrations of sports content through micro short dramas [12][14] Group 4: Industry Growth and Ecosystem - Migu Reading has achieved significant results in IP ecosystem development, with successful web literature and AI drama projects, some surpassing 10 million views [14] - The company aims to foster deep integration and innovative development across web literature, short dramas, and AI dramas, leveraging quality content resources and supportive policies [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the emergence of "new three items" (online literature, web series, and online games) as a systematic force reshaping global perceptions of Chinese narratives through cultural export [1][3] - The forum highlighted the formation of a dual-track path for cultural export, transitioning from "content going out" to "scenes taking root" both online and offline [1] - The success of the "new three items" is attributed to the advantages gained over the past decade, particularly after the proliferation of mobile technology in 2015, allowing Chinese content to gain a first-mover advantage in global markets [3] Group 2 - The integration of IP and cultural tourism is identified as a new trend, with examples such as the immersive experience of "Dao Gui Yi Xian" in Singapore, showcasing the transformation of Chinese IP into tangible, interactive experiences [4][6] - The challenges of cultural translation, commercial adaptation, and industrial integration are crucial for successfully bringing Chinese IP to international audiences [4] - The "IP + cultural tourism" model has shown significant potential, attracting new demographics and enhancing visitor satisfaction through tailored experiences [6] Group 3 - The cultural export is evolving from a one-dimensional content export to a dual-track approach that combines online digital ecosystem construction with offline physical scene integration [8] - Chinese online literature is becoming a vital source of IP, collaborating with various forms of media to create a more inclusive and interactive global cultural consumption network [8] - Currently, over 13,600 online literary works, 1,300 published works, 2,100 comics, and more than 100 film and television productions have been launched overseas, indicating the growing presence of Chinese online literature in the global cultural landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of database writing in online literature is leading to a shift in aesthetic habits from a focus on wholeness to a pursuit of fragmentation, raising concerns about the weakening of narrative integrity [1][3][4] Group 1: Database Writing and Its Characteristics - Database writing in online literature mimics computer database logic, extracting and combining widely accepted literary or cultural elements to generate new texts [1] - The concept of "character setting" in online literature follows database principles, allowing for the assembly of characters from independent modules without affecting one another, contrasting with traditional character development [2] Group 2: Impact on Narrative and Aesthetic Sensibilities - Scholars express concern that database writing, exemplified by "character settings," may weaken narrative coherence and lead to a preference for fragmented information over holistic storytelling [3][4] - Long-term exposure to database media may diminish sensitivity to overall narrative and causal relationships, making fragmented information a primary source of meaning and enjoyment for readers [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities in Online Literature - The reliance on modular elements may simplify and standardize the expression of life experiences, prioritizing immediate gratification over deeper narrative engagement [5] - The proliferation of tags and genres in online literature reflects user dissatisfaction with simplified experiences, leading to a dynamic evolution of content that maintains reader interest [7][8] Group 4: Evolution of Reader Engagement and Content Creation - Online literature platforms are adapting algorithms to better align with reader behavior, allowing for a more nuanced recommendation system that goes beyond mere data aggregation [8] - Despite the trend towards fragmentation, the pursuit of narrative integrity remains significant in Chinese online literature, as evidenced by the ongoing demand for meaningful storytelling [9][10]