QCP 分析指出，在经历约 30% 的回调后，BTC 出现初步反弹迹象，美联储偏鸽言论令 12 月降息预期 升至 75%，市场流动性或正在转向。衍生品数据显示，投资者未放弃上行押注，年底看涨期权未平仓 量仍高于看跌期权，集中于 85K 至 200K 档位。同时，负资金费率暗示多头杠杆已被清洗，短期下行风 险减弱。未来几日走势或取决于美国零售数据、核心 PCE 和 ETF 资金流表现。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

这本书中失败的部分比成功的部分更感人，因为金钱是虚假的，个人的痛苦与挣扎却是真实的。 加里·斯蒂文森（Gary Stevenson）的《交易游戏》（The Trading Game）自从去年出版，已在英国畅销书榜单上待 了整整一年。在2025年，如果你像我一样，碰巧途经一个全球金融中心城市的机场，一定会在WHSmith或者 Hudson书店显著的位置看到这本书。出乎我的1意料，《交易游戏》让我欲罢不能，2025年的9月，我在一架晚点 的飞机上整整看了8个小时。 斯蒂文森与我作为成年人进入社会的时间相仿。20出头大学刚毕业的时候，我们碰到的第一件大事就是2008年的 金融危机。再过去多少年，我们也忘不了那家曼哈顿大投行雷曼兄弟，怎样在一夜之间灰飞烟灭。那年我在纽 约，有个金融业的朋友指着一栋挂着"摩根斯坦利"招牌的大楼说，这家是下一个。过了最多一个月，"摩根斯坦 利"成了"摩根大通"。 带着这样的预设走进社会，我们的悲观与虚无主义可能深入骨髓。另外，我们没有有钱的爸爸。成人社会的一切 都好像一个大骗局。加里·斯蒂文森的爸爸在邮政局上了一辈子班，他家的房子就在轻轨边上，妈妈早上会把他叫 醒，让他跟爸爸挥手道别。在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of developing direct financing methods such as equity and bonds, and promoting the steady growth of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [1] Group 1 - The recommendations highlight the need for active development of direct financing methods, including equity and bond markets [1] - There is a focus on the gradual development of futures and derivatives markets [1] - The plan also emphasizes the importance of asset securitization as a means to enhance financial stability and efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock and JPMorgan are entering the Taiwan ETF market, but local players hold a significant home advantage in distribution channels and investor preferences [3][5]. Group 1: Market Challenges - JPMorgan and BlackRock may face obstacles in the Taiwan ETF market due to the competitive landscape and sensitivity to fees among investors [3][5]. - The top four local ETF issuers in Taiwan attracted approximately 80% of the capital inflows over the past three years, highlighting the dominance of local players [3][5]. Group 2: Fee Sensitivity - Low fees could be a critical strategy for international issuers to attract funds in Taiwan, as investors are increasingly sensitive to fee structures [5][6]. - The largest ETF in Taiwan, Yuanta Taiwan 50 ETF, recorded its highest quarterly inflows after reducing its fees, indicating the importance of competitive pricing [5][6]. Group 3: Active ETFs and Derivatives - For active ETFs to gain traction in Taiwan, issuers may require more regulatory support to utilize derivatives, which could enhance yield and attract investors [5][6]. - Active ETFs currently represent a small portion of the market, with only $371 million in trading volume compared to $22 billion for passive ETFs as of mid-2025 [6]. Group 4: Market Growth - Taiwan's ETF assets under management (AUM) grew robustly, ranking third in the Asia-Pacific region, with a 13% growth rate as of the second quarter of 2025 [6].

Core Insights - The implementation of the new asset management regulations for futures institutions has significantly impacted the futures asset management industry, leading to a trend of "active optimization and overall tightening" [1][3] - The new regulations have restructured the survival rules of the futures asset management industry, raising the threshold for business qualifications and accelerating the differentiation among institutions [3][4] Industry Threshold and Differentiation - The new regulations have increased the conditions for revoking business qualifications, changing the standard from "not successfully filing new products for 24 consecutive months" to "not successfully filing new products for 6 consecutive months" [3] - As of May 2025, the number of existing futures asset management institutions has decreased to 99 from 110 in January, indicating a trend of consolidation in the industry [3] - Over half of the remaining institutions have a management scale of less than 500 million yuan, with 41 institutions managing between 100 million and 500 million yuan, and 18 institutions managing less than 100 million yuan [3] Talent and Compliance Challenges - Futures institutions engaging in asset management face dual pressures in compliance costs and investment research, which differ significantly from traditional brokerage businesses [4] - Companies are reassessing their participation in the asset management sector based on their operational strategies and resource allocations [4] Differentiated Development Paths - The new regulations have ended the "land grab" growth model in futures asset management, promoting a shift towards more efficient and specialized management practices [5] - As of May 2023, the total scale of private asset management products by securities and futures institutions reached 12.11 trillion yuan, with futures companies managing 348.24 billion yuan, accounting for 2.88% of the total [5] - Futures asset management can focus on serving the industrial chain, providing a complementary strategy beyond traditional fixed-income allocations [5] Positioning as Derivatives Experts - Futures asset management should establish itself as "experts in derivatives usage," leveraging its strengths in commodity assets to enhance product design and diversity [6] - Derivatives are recognized as a crucial asset and tool in asset management, playing a key role in commodity allocation, market risk hedging, and enhancing capital efficiency [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently facing short-term pressure, with key support levels identified at 47.2 HKD, 44.2 HKD, and 40.8 HKD, while resistance levels are at 53.1 HKD and 55.6 HKD. The market sentiment appears slightly optimistic with a 53% probability of short-term price increase [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock closed at 48.65 HKD, with a potential drop to 47.2 HKD being a critical level to watch [1]. - Technical indicators show a bearish crossover with the 10-day moving average (50.11 HKD) falling below the 30-day moving average (46.86 HKD) [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a neutral position, while the MACD shows a buy signal but with weakening momentum [1]. - The stock's volatility is at 10.9%, suggesting significant price fluctuations recently [1]. - Current technical signals include 9 sell signals, 8 neutral signals, and 11 buy signals, leading to an overall "buy" recommendation [1]. Derivative Instruments - For bullish investors, options such as the Morgan Stanley call option (14642) with a strike price of 55.05 HKD and a leverage of 5.6 times are recommended [6]. - UBS call option (14991) has similar terms with a leverage of 5.3 times [6]. - For bearish strategies, HSBC bear certificate (61377) offers an 8 times leverage, while Societe Generale bear certificate (61240) provides an 8.4 times leverage [9]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently observing a mixed performance in derivative products, with HSBC bear certificates rising by 61% and Societe Generale bear certificates increasing by 53% during a 5.26% drop in stock price [3].