证券研究报告 传媒 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 30 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC：S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 团播， 一次产业的自我升级 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业专题报告 投资要点： 几点认知差：人群、政策、商业化和国际化。 1）男团和女团的核心受众均是女性为主。目前女团/男团核心受众均是女性（18-40 岁）为主，是直播打赏市场中的增量消费人群，"世另我"的情绪消费+社交氛围+ 粉丝经济，或将拉伸整体付费宽度+水位，明显区别于过去"暧昧经济"的直播内容 受众。 2）政策的高要求和严监管推动行业集中度提升。2025 年，抖音发布《抖音直播团 播机构管理规范》，从团播机构管理层面明确六项禁止行为。近一年来，平台已处 置 1200 多个违规团播账号，清退 12 家违规经营机构，为优质团播成长营造健康环 境。 3）直播打赏之外，IP 和 ...

守护 Kidult 精神自留地，泡泡玛特首次超越迪士尼 2025 年上半年，历史上首次，泡泡玛特以 138.8 亿元的营收超过了迪士尼消费品部的 138.6 亿元。 虽然玩具领域的"东升西落"并不是新鲜事，但一份由 @wuhu动画人空间 整理的榜单却依然引起了小红书用户的热议。 | | | | | 2025年上半年玩具与IP消费品公司收入 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 品牌 | 中文品牌名 | 地区 | 销售收入(亿元人民币) | 备注 | | 1 | The LEGO Group | 乐高集团 | 丹麦 | 384.5 | 基于公司2025年半年报 | | 2 | Pop Mart | 泡泡玛特 | 中国 | 138.8 | 基于公司2025年半年报 | | 3 | Disney | 迪士尼 | 美国 | 138.6 | 基于2025年Q2与Q3财报估算 | | 4 | Bandai Namco | 万代南梦宫 | 日本 | 134.4 | 基于2025年年报估算 | | 5 | Hasbro | 孩之宝 | 美国 | 133.4 | 基于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's rating to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from HKD 400 to HKD 300, citing that the stock price has surged 209% this year, reaching a "perfectly priced" valuation, leading to a poor risk/reward ratio in the short term [1][6][7] Price Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 209% year-to-date and 466% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose 32% and 52% in the same periods [5][7] - The stock experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of HKD 252 per share, a drop of over 25% from its previous record high [3][5] Rating and Target Price Adjustment - The downgrade from "Overweight" to "Neutral" reflects concerns that the stock's rapid price increase has led to a situation where any minor negative news could trigger significant price corrections [6][7] - The PEG ratio was adjusted from 1.5 to 1.1, indicating increased risk consideration at current high valuations [8] Catalysts and Future Outlook - Four out of seven previously identified catalysts have been realized, including strong performance reports and successful collaborations, while three potential catalysts remain uncertain [9][10] - Investors are advised to wait for the next catalyst window between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 before making further investment decisions [10] Core IP and Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding the sustainability of the core IP Labubu's popularity have arisen due to declining resale prices in the secondary market, attributed to rapid production capacity expansion rather than a decline in IP interest [11][12] - The secondary market prices for Labubu collectibles have seen significant drops, with Labubu 3.0 prices falling 70% from their peak, yet still maintaining a 15% premium over retail prices [12][13] Long-term Investment Logic - Despite the downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive long-term outlook for Pop Mart, emphasizing its strong IP development and monetization capabilities, diversified IP portfolio, and successful global expansion [14][15] - The company is expected to reduce reliance on a single IP, with Labubu's sales contribution projected to be 35% by 2027, and overseas business growth anticipated to contribute over 60% of group profits by 2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the toy industry Core Insights - The Japanese toy market has experienced stagnant growth over the past 30 years, with a shift in consumer preferences leading to a decline in traditional children's toys and a rise in emerging categories like card games and hobbies [1][3] - The market for assembly toys has shown volatility, with significant growth driven by blockbuster products in the late 1980s, followed by a decline, but a long-term upward trend as the player demographic expanded from children to adults [1][4] - The integration of intellectual property (IP) into the toy industry began in the 1970s, fostering collaboration between content creators and manufacturers, which has been crucial for the development of derivative markets [1][6] - The adultization trend in the toy industry became prominent after the 1990s, leading to increased demand for collectible items and the emergence of niche categories [1][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Japanese toy industry has seen a significant shift in market share over the past two decades, with new categories like children's card games and hobbies gaining prominence while traditional toys have declined [5] - The assembly toy market has experienced notable volatility, with peaks in the late 1980s followed by declines, but a long-term trend of growth as the audience has expanded to include adults [4][10] Company Strategies - Major companies like Bandai and Takara Tomy have adopted platform strategies to monetize IP through acquisitions, diversifying their revenue streams and enhancing their ability to withstand market risks [2][15] - Bandai has successfully integrated various business models, targeting different age groups with a diverse range of products, thereby mitigating risks associated with market fluctuations [16] IP Development - The report highlights the importance of IP in the toy industry, with successful examples like "One Piece" demonstrating how a single IP can evolve and generate revenue across multiple platforms [14][13] - The assembly model market features key IPs such as Gundam, which has shown consistent growth, while others like Mini 4WD have experienced fluctuating popularity [10][11]

Core Insights - The company, Blokus, reported a revenue of approximately 1.338 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.9% and a turnaround from a loss of 255 million yuan in the same period last year to a profit of 297 million yuan [1][2] - Despite the positive financial results, the revenue growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, where it was 56.1% and 47.1% in the same periods of the last two years [1] - The significant highlight of the report is the remarkable growth in overseas revenue, which reached 110 million yuan, a staggering increase of 899% compared to the same period last year [2][4] Financial Performance - Blokus achieved an adjusted profit of 73 million yuan and 292 million yuan for the first halves of 2023 and 2024, respectively, with an adjusted profit margin of 27.92% in the first half of 2024 [1] - The overseas revenue now accounts for 8.3% of total revenue, a significant increase from just 2% prior to 2024 [4] - The company has introduced 273 new SKUs in the first half of 2025, contributing to 53.1% of total revenue [10] Market Expansion - The overseas markets, particularly North America and Southeast Asia, have become key growth areas, with revenue from these regions showing exceptional increases [2][4] - The company has strategically focused on low-priced products, such as the 9.9 yuan Transformers series, which sold 48.6 million units, generating over 200 million yuan in revenue [1][5] - Blokus is actively diversifying its IP portfolio, having added 13 new IPs in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to around 50 [10] Competitive Landscape - Blokus's competitive advantage lies in its mid-to-low price positioning in the building block toy market, contrasting with competitors like LEGO and Bandai Namco, which operate in higher price ranges [7] - The company is facing challenges in establishing its own IPs, with only two proprietary IPs contributing minimally to revenue [10] - The company is also expanding its target demographic to include older consumers and low-age female markets, with a notable increase in revenue from products aimed at consumers aged 16 and above [11] Future Outlook - The company recognizes the importance of enhancing user experience and creativity in its products, which is crucial for building brand loyalty [12] - Blokus plans to continue investing in IP development and community engagement initiatives, such as the BFC Creative Competition, to foster creativity among users [12] - The ongoing diversification of its IP portfolio and the introduction of new products are seen as essential strategies for sustaining growth and market presence [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant turnaround of Blokus, a leading building block toy company in China, which reported a revenue of approximately 1.338 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.9% and a profit of 297 million yuan, reversing a loss from the previous year [4][5]. Financial Performance - Blokus achieved a revenue of approximately 1.338 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9% [4]. - The company turned a profit of 297 million yuan, compared to a loss of 255 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - Adjusted profits for the first halves of 2023 and 2024 were 73 million yuan and 292 million yuan, respectively, with an adjusted profit margin of 27.92% in 2024 [4]. Market Dynamics - The revenue growth rate of Blokus in the first half of 2025 was lower than the previous two years, which were 56.1% and 47.1% [4]. - The company has focused on low-priced products, particularly a 9.9 yuan Transformers version, which sold 48.6 million units and generated over 200 million yuan in revenue [4]. International Expansion - Blokus's overseas revenue reached 110 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a staggering increase of 899% year-on-year, with North America and Southeast Asia being the main contributors [5][8]. - The overseas revenue accounted for 8.3% of total revenue, a significant increase from 2% in previous years [8]. - Indonesia and the United States were the top two countries for overseas revenue, with the latter showing a remarkable growth rate of 21 times compared to the previous year [9][8]. IP Strategy - The company is actively expanding its IP matrix, having added 13 new IPs in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to around 50 [17]. - Blokus has reduced its reliance on the Ultraman IP, which contributed 63.5% of total revenue in 2023, down to 49% in 2024 [14][15]. - The company aims to diversify its IP portfolio to mitigate risks and enhance its own IP presence, which currently accounts for a small portion of total revenue [15][16]. Product Development - In the first half of 2025, Blokus launched 273 new SKUs, which accounted for 53.1% of total revenue, aiming to attract a broader consumer base [18]. - The company is targeting adult consumers and younger female demographics, with products priced between 100 to 200 yuan [18]. User Engagement - Blokus emphasizes user experience and creativity, planning to continue its BFC creative competition across 150 cities to engage consumers [20]. - The company recognizes the importance of fostering creativity in building block toys, similar to strategies employed by LEGO [20]. Competitive Landscape - Blokus has positioned itself in the mid-to-low price segment of the building block toy market, competing against established brands like Bandai and LEGO, which have higher price points [12]. - The company has established a robust distribution network, collaborating with over 450 distributors to cover major cities in China [21]. Conclusion - The ongoing success of Blokus hinges on its ability to effectively leverage its IP portfolio and maintain competitive pricing while expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [21].

Core Viewpoint - iQIYI has returned to a loss position, with Q2 2025 revenue declining by 11% year-on-year to 6.63 billion yuan and a net loss of 133.7 million yuan compared to a net profit of 68.7 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - iQIYI's membership revenue decreased by 9.0% year-on-year to 4.09 billion yuan, attributed to limited head content [5] - The company's advertising revenue fell by 13% year-on-year to 1.27 billion yuan, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and reduced budgets from major advertisers [8][9] - Overall, iQIYI's total revenue cost was 5.29 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, with content costs decreasing by 8% to 3.78 billion yuan [16] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The long video platform industry is facing a crisis due to competition from short videos and a sluggish advertising market [2][3] - Tencent's video subscription numbers dropped by 3 million to 114 million, indicating a broader trend in the industry [2] - The short video user base in China reached 1.04 billion, with a usage rate of 93.8%, highlighting the shift in viewer preferences [6] Group 3: Content and Market Strategy - iQIYI maintains a leading market share in total viewership among long video platforms, with several of its dramas achieving high popularity [5] - The company is exploring new market growth by leveraging its IP reserves for consumer products and offline experiences, achieving over 100 million yuan in GMV from collectible cards [13] - iQIYI's micro-drama library has reached 15,000 titles, with notable successes in recent releases [14] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - Recent favorable policies from the National Radio and Television Administration, known as "Broadcasting 21 Articles," are expected to enhance content production efficiency and attract more talent and investment [10][11][12] - iQIYI's international version saw a record high in daily membership numbers, with significant growth in markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the popularity of the Labubu IP, with a revenue increase of 204% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 396.5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 138.8 billion, with a net profit of 45.7 billion in H1 2025, aligning with previous forecasts [1] - Gross margin improved by 6.20 percentage points to 70.34%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue and effective cost control [2] - The comprehensive expense ratio decreased by 9.29 percentage points to 28.09%, benefiting from significant revenue growth and scale effects [2] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the China region (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reached 82.8 billion, up 135.2% year-on-year [1] - The Americas saw a remarkable revenue increase of 1142.3% to 22.6 billion, while Europe and other regions grew by 729.2% to 4.8 billion [1] - The company had 13 artist IPs generating over 1 billion in revenue, with THE MONSTERS leading at 48 billion [1] Group 3: Product Performance - Vinyl toys emerged as a phenomenon, driving plush product revenue up 1276% to 61.4 billion [1] - The figure products generated 51.8 billion, a 94.8% increase, while MEGA products reached 10 billion, up 71.8% [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue strong growth domestically and internationally, with new product launches and increased IP exposure [2] - The introduction of a mini version of Labubu is anticipated to create a new wave of popularity in the second half of the year [2] - The company is diversifying its business with city parks, accessories, and themed stores to enhance IP monetization capabilities [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 97 billion, 147.5 billion, and 209 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 210%, 52%, and 42% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 36 times, 24 times, and 17 times for the respective years, with an upgraded investment rating to "buy" [3]

Financing Transactions - Xiaolu AI received 1 million RMB in angel round financing from Youzhiyuan, focusing on technology optimization and local service expansion in the AI + education sector [3] - Xinghua Chip secured 195 million RMB in strategic investment from Huitong Energy, aimed at accelerating technology iteration and alleviating "bottleneck" pressures in the domestic integrated circuit industry [3] - Ronghe Yuanchu received 30 million RMB in B round financing from CIMC Group and State Nuclear Investment, emphasizing its full-chain service in energy storage under the "dual carbon" goals [4] - Aerospace Yuxing completed 430 million RMB in C+ round financing, with investments from seven institutions, marking a shift in the commercial aerospace industry towards ground operation services [5][6] - ShiningSoul obtained 300 million RMB in A round financing from KKR and Hillhouse Capital, focusing on IP development and collaboration in the entertainment and media sector [7] - Lingdong General secured 300 million RMB in angel round financing, emphasizing its fully controllable technology from AI to robotics, aiming to address the disconnection between algorithms and hardware in the robotics industry [8] - Haihe Pharmaceuticals received 300 million RMB in strategic investment from Huayi Family, aimed at accelerating clinical development of innovative anti-tumor drugs [9] - Xinsong Semiconductor completed 269 million RMB in strategic investment, focusing on acoustic filters as key components for mobile and IoT devices, with growing demand driven by 5G and IoT [10] - Mesh. (formerly Front Finance) secured 195 million RMB in B round financing from PayPal and Coinbase Ventures, focusing on a one-stop financial management platform in the fintech sector [11] - Reprieve received 397 million RMB in B round financing from Arboretum Ventures, providing automated diuretic and fluid management solutions for acute decompensated heart failure [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that the performance of China Literature Group (00772) in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, primarily driven by robust growth in the total transaction value (GMV) of IP derivative products and a record high adjusted net profit after excluding New Classics Media (NCM) [1] Group 1 - The growth in IP licensing and derivative product business is expected to unlock the long-term monetization potential of IP assets, including literature, comics, and animations [1] - It is anticipated that the proportion of revenue from IP licensing will significantly increase in the long term, with this business segment showing strong profit performance [1] - Credit Lyonnais has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for China Literature for 2025 and 2026 by 4% and 2% respectively, and increased the target price from HKD 35 to HKD 40, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]