香港联交所最新资料显示，8月25日，摩根大通增持蒙牛乳业(02319)138.5376万股，每股作价16.5089港 元，总金额约为2287.10万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.35亿股，最新持股比例为6%。 ...

蒙牛乳业(02319)发布公告，于2025年8月28日斥资477.69万港元回购30万股股份。 ...

智通财经APP讯，蒙牛乳业(02319)发布公告，于2025年8月28日斥资477.69万港元回购30万股股份。 ...

格隆汇8月28日丨蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)发布公告，2025年8月28日耗资477.69万港元回购30万股，回购价 格每股15.81-16港元。 ...

第 1 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 | | | 第 2 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年8月28日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02319 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21, while the current price is HKD 16.20 [4][7]. Core Views - The revenue performance is under pressure, but operating profit margin (OPM) has improved, indicating a focus on quality and returns despite external demand challenges [4][7]. - The company is expected to face continued revenue pressure in the second half of the year, but profitability is anticipated to recover due to cost benefits and improved operational efficiency [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Total revenue is projected to decline from HKD 88.675 billion in 2024 to HKD 81.210 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [4][13]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from HKD 105 million in 2024 to HKD 4.511 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4216.4% [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from HKD 0.03 in 2024 to HKD 1.16 in 2025, with further growth to HKD 1.36 and HKD 1.56 in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][13]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 554 in 2024 to 13 in 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [4][13]. Segment Performance - **Product Categories**: Liquid milk revenue decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, while infant formula and ice cream showed positive growth of 2.5% and 15% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across product lines [7][8]. - **Cost Management**: The company benefited from lower raw milk prices, leading to a gross margin increase to 41.75% in the first half of 2025, up by 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that while external demand remains weak, the company’s inventory management is healthy, and operational improvements are expected to support profitability recovery in the second half of the year [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 23.74 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 415.7 million and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 20.5 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.9% and 16.4% respectively. The liquid milk business continues to face challenges, while diversified businesses such as ice cream and overseas operations show growth potential [1][2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows liquid milk at HKD 321.9 million (down 11.2%), ice cream at HKD 38.8 million (up 15.0%), milk powder at HKD 16.8 million (up 2.5%), and cheese at HKD 23.7 million (up 12.3%) [2]. - Gross profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.9% due to inventory impairment and losses from joint ventures [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in liquid milk demand, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which are seen as critical observation periods. The ice cream business has returned to positive growth, and profitability in milk powder and cheese is expected to improve [1][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to HKD 842.7 billion, HKD 864.3 billion, and HKD 883.3 billion, reflecting a decrease of 5%, 4%, and 4% respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is projected at HKD 1.08, HKD 1.45, and HKD 1.58 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in operating net profit margin despite pressure on liquid milk demand [5] - The company is expected to achieve a substantial recovery in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected growth rates of 4113% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 9% in 2027 [5][7] - Mengniu Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, with core competencies in milk sourcing, product offerings, and distribution channels [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Mengniu Dairy are as follows: - 2023: 98,624 million RMB - 2024: 88,675 million RMB - 2025E: 82,468 million RMB - 2026E: 86,041 million RMB - 2027E: 89,636 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be 6.51% in 2023, -10.09% in 2024, -7.00% in 2025, 4.33% in 2026, and 4.18% in 2027 [3][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 4,809 million RMB - 2024: 105 million RMB - 2025E: 4,424 million RMB - 2026E: 5,225 million RMB - 2027E: 5,716 million RMB - The net profit growth rates are projected at -9.31% in 2023, -97.83% in 2024, 4113.33% in 2025, 18.11% in 2026, and 9.40% in 2027 [3][7] Business Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.57 billion RMB, with liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and cheese revenues at 32.19 billion, 1.68 billion, 3.88 billion, and 2.37 billion RMB respectively [5] - The liquid milk business faced challenges due to weak demand, leading to a decline in both volume and price, although fresh milk saw over 20% growth [5] - The gross profit margin improved to 41.7%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in milk prices [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 41.57 billion in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [5] - Gross profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7% [5] - Operating profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.5% [6] - Operating profit grew 13.4% year-on-year to RMB 3.54 billion [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.4% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for the first half reached RMB 2.8 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase [9] - Capital expenditures totaled RMB 1 billion [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core liquid milk business, particularly room temperature milk, faced significant growth pressure [7] - Sub-segments including fresh milk, ice cream, cheese, and infant milk formula all achieved double-digit growth [8] - Fresh milk business achieved over 20% growth, significantly outperforming the industry [17] - Ice cream business saw revenue and profits grow in tandem, with new products becoming bestsellers [20] - Milk formula business experienced strong growth, with revenue increasing by more than 20% [20] - Cheese products also showed good growth momentum for both revenue and profit [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets and achieving breakthroughs in weaker regional markets [15] - Fresh milk continues to lead in both online and offline premium channels, holding top market shares [19] - The company has established a strong presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam [20][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company proposed a strategy of "one core, two wings," focusing on strengthening the core business while fostering innovative growth [12] - Emphasis on product innovation and upgrading distribution channels to adapt to market shifts [13] - Commitment to R&D and product innovation to address industry challenges and consumer needs [39] - Focus on sustainability and green initiatives as part of the company's long-term strategy [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The dairy industry is facing significant supply-demand imbalances and evolving consumer demands [4] - The current cycle for the dairy industry is more challenging than expected, with three main pain points identified [25][26] - The company sees transformation opportunities amid these challenges and aims to enhance product diversity and resilience [25][28] - Management is confident in the company's ability to navigate challenges and create long-term value for shareholders [40] Other Important Information - The company completed a cash dividend distribution for fiscal year 2024 and announced a new share repurchase program [11] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the company's strategies to address the current challenges in the dairy industry? - The company is focusing on R&D, product innovation, and enhancing supply chain efficiency to meet consumer demands and navigate industry challenges [39] Question: How is the company performing in international markets? - The company has seen strong market performance in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, and is expanding its presence in other emerging markets [20][24] Question: What are the company's plans for product innovation? - The company is committed to launching new products tailored to diverse consumer needs, including functional nutrition products for various demographics [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 41.57 billion in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [5] - Gross profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7% [5] - Operating profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.5% [6] - Operating profit grew 13.4% year-on-year to RMB 3.54 billion [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.4% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for the first half reached RMB 2.8 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase [9] - Capital expenditures totaled RMB 1 billion [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core liquid milk business, particularly room temperature milk, faced significant growth pressure [7] - Sub-segments including fresh milk, ice cream, cheese, and infant milk formula all achieved double-digit growth [8] - Fresh milk business achieved over 20% growth, significantly outperforming the industry [16] - Ice cream business saw revenue and profits grow in tandem, with new products becoming bestsellers [18] - The milk formula business experienced strong growth, with revenue for the brand Reborn increasing significantly [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets and achieving breakthroughs in weaker regional markets [14] - Fresh milk continues to lead in both online and offline premium channels, holding top market shares [17] - The company has deepened partnerships with emerging growth channels like membership warehouse stores and on-demand retail [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company proposed a strategy of "one core, two wings," focusing on strengthening the core business while fostering innovative growth [11] - Emphasis on product innovation and upgrading distribution channels to adapt to market shifts [12] - Commitment to R&D and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The dairy industry faces significant supply-demand imbalances and evolving consumer demands [4] - Management highlighted the need for transformation opportunities amid challenges in the industry [25] - The company aims to address three pain points in the dairy industry: supply-demand imbalance, lack of category diversity, and resilience [24] Other Important Information - The company completed a cash dividend distribution for fiscal year 2024 and announced a new share repurchase program [10] - The company is committed to ESG initiatives, including green packaging and operations [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the company's strategies to address the challenges in the dairy industry? - The company is focusing on R&D, product innovation, and enhancing supply chain efficiency to address industry challenges [24][37] Question: How is the company performing in different product segments? - The company reported strong growth in fresh milk, ice cream, and infant milk formula, while facing challenges in the room temperature milk segment [16][19] Question: What are the future growth prospects for the company? - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current challenges and emphasized the potential for growth in the dairy industry [38]