+4%/+15%/+7%/+30%/+8%/+20%。 发展趋势 KFM 二期规划发布，组织升级叠加股权激励，剑指世界一流矿企。据公告，一是公司围绕80-100 万吨 的铜年产能目标，发布KFM 二期项目规划，公司预计于2027 年投产，达产后新增年平均10 万吨铜金 属。二是继今年4 月份4 位新高管的任命后，公司此次任命先进制造业资深高管彭旭辉先生担任总裁及 CEO，组织升级落下关键一子。三是公司于9 月23 日晚发布重磅股权激励计划，拟推出涵盖3.93 亿港股 的激励计划，绑定核心人才。 机构：中金公司 研究员：何曼文/齐丁/陈彦 3Q25 业绩创同期历史新高，超出我们预期 公司公布3Q25 业绩：1-3Q25 实现营业收入1455 亿元，同比-6%，归母净利润143 亿元，同比+73%。 3Q25 实现营业收入507 亿元，同/环比-2%/+4%；归母净利润56 亿元，同/环比+96%/+19%。业绩超出我 们预期主要系多数金属产品量价齐升。 产量方面，前三季度铜/钴产量同比+14%/+4%，占年度指引中值为86%/80%；其他产品产量占年度指引 中值均超75%。销量方面，前三季度铜/钴销量同比+11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance has been positively impacted by the significant increase in copper and cobalt prices, leading to a rise in overall profitability [3] - The gross profit margin for the mining segment reached 53%, with copper and cobalt contributing 70% and 13% to the gross profit, respectively [3] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 73% [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards due to the rise in copper and cobalt prices, with net profits projected at 18.8 billion, 25.5 billion, and 29.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while the net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.61 billion yuan, up 96.4% year-on-year [8][3] - The company’s copper production reached 543,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, achieving 86% of its annual target [8][3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.06 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded its production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company’s operating income was 145.49 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 14.54 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s operating costs decreased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, and the overall recovery rate improved from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7]. Production and Pricing Insights - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The LME copper price in Q3 2025 increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton, while domestic prices for other products also saw significant increases [2]. - The company is actively expanding its copper production capacity with ongoing projects, including the TFM and KFM expansions, which are expected to significantly boost future output [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, a 72.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan in Q3, a 96.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-3 2025 was 145.49 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 50.71 billion yuan [1]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The company achieved a production completion rate of 80% for copper and 79% for diamonds in the first three quarters [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The LME copper price increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton in Q3 2025, while domestic tungsten prices surged by 40% to 330,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The company successfully reduced operating costs by 0.5% in Q3 2025, with overall recovery rates improving from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the expansion of TFM and KFM copper production, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD for KFM's second phase, expected to be operational by 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. - H shares decreased from 6.1% to 5.98% on October 23, 2025 [1]

Summary of CMOC Group Ltd 3Q25 Management Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC Group Ltd (3993.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: US$51,519 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$18.60 - **Current Price (as of Oct 27, 2025)**: HK$17.04 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$47.9 million Key Points Copper Production - **Strong Performance**: The strong copper production volume for the first nine months of 2025 is attributed to sufficient power supply and upgrades in TFM technology starting from the third quarter [1][2] - **Future Expectations**: Production volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be similar to that of the third quarter. Management does not anticipate large one-off copper sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 to recur this year [1][2] Growth Projections - **Future Growth**: Copper production volume is projected to continue growing year-over-year in 2026-2027, primarily driven by TFM upgrades and the commencement of KFM phase 2, expected to start in the first half of 2027. Official guidance will be provided in the FY25 annual report [2] Cobalt Production - **Export Quota**: CMOC is expediting procedures for cobalt export following the receipt of the export quota. However, limited external sales are anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to shipment time lag. Cobalt production outside the export quota will be stored and recorded at production cost [2] Production Costs - **Cost Trends**: Copper production costs saw a mild quarter-over-quarter decrease in the third quarter of 2025 and are expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter. The production cost of KFM phase 2 is projected to be no higher than that of phase 1 due to scale effects, allowing for shared facilities and employees [3] Taxation - **Effective Tax Rate**: The effective tax rate was lower quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter of 2025 due to a high base in the second quarter related to tax inspections. The windfall tax has not been triggered at current metal prices [3] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Projections**: - EPS (Rmb): 0.63 (FY24), 0.78 (FY25e), 0.96 (FY26e), 1.02 (FY27e) - EBITDA (Rmb million): 33,952 (FY24), 37,341 (FY25e), 43,722 (FY26e), 45,423 (FY27e) - ModelWare net income (Rmb million): 13,532 (FY24), 16,880 (FY25e), 20,738 (FY26e), 21,941 (FY27e) - P/E Ratio: 7.9 (FY24), 20.0 (FY25e), 16.3 (FY26e), 15.4 (FY27e) - P/BV Ratio: 1.5 (FY24), 4.1 (FY25e), 3.5 (FY26e), 3.1 (FY27e) - ROE (%): 22.7 (FY24), 23.8 (FY25e), 25.2 (FY26e), 22.8 (FY27e) - Dividend Yield (%): 3.1 (FY24), 1.6 (FY25e), 2.0 (FY26e), 2.5 (FY27e) [5] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Metal prices in 2025 being stronger than expected - Copper output exceeding company guidance - **Downside Risks**: - Copper output falling significantly below guidance - Weakening cobalt prices due to low demand from industrials and domestic electric vehicles - Slow recovery of the global macroeconomy affecting metal prices [11] Additional Insights - **Valuation Methodology**: A DCF model is used with a WACC of 10.7%, assuming a 2% annual revenue growth beyond the explicit forecast period [8] - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as Overweight, indicating expected total returns to exceed the average total return of the industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [32] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the CMOC Group Ltd 3Q25 management call, highlighting production performance, future growth expectations, financial metrics, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising metal prices and operational improvements [2][21]. - The KFM Phase II project has been approved, with an investment of $1.084 billion aimed at increasing copper production by 100,000 tons annually by 2027 [3][4]. - The management team has undergone a complete overhaul, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and strategic direction [55][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Event Overview - The company released its Q3 2025 report on October 25, 2025, reporting a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, and a net profit of 14.280 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [1][11]. 2. Performance Analysis - Q3 2025 saw a revenue of 50.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.99%. The net profit for the quarter was 5.608 billion yuan, up 96.40% year-on-year and 18.69% quarter-on-quarter [1][19]. - The increase in net profit was primarily due to a rise in gross profit, which increased by 2.139 billion yuan, and a reduction in expenses and taxes [2][45]. - The company’s main metal prices remained high, contributing to improved margins across various segments [27][50]. 3. Segment Performance - The copper and cobalt segments showed significant growth, with copper production reaching 54.34 million tons, a 14.14% year-on-year increase, while cobalt production was 8.80 million tons, a 3.84% increase [31][34]. - The tungsten and molybdenum segments experienced a decline in production, with molybdenum production down 6.38% and tungsten down 2.10% year-on-year [31][34]. - The niobium and phosphorus segments performed well, with niobium production slightly exceeding guidance and phosphorus production showing steady growth [31][34]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 18.903 billion yuan, 24.737 billion yuan, and 26.652 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.88 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.25 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19X, 15X, and 13X [4][5].

Summary of Luoyang Molybdenum Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (洛阳钼业) - **Industry**: Mining and Metals, specifically focusing on copper and cobalt production Key Points Production and Financial Performance - **Copper Production**: - Total copper production reached 543,000 tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% driven by contributions from TFM and KFM [2][3] - Third-quarter copper production was 190,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.7% [3] - **Cobalt Production**: - Cobalt production for the first three quarters was 88,000 tons, up 3.8% year-on-year, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] - Cobalt product gross margin improved by 27 percentage points to 63.5% due to price increases [2][5] - **Net Profit**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.3 billion yuan, exceeding the total for the previous year, with a year-on-year growth of 72.6% [3][7] - **Trade Business**: - Total physical trade volume was 3.33 million tons with a gross margin exceeding 2% [2][6] ESG Performance - **ESG Ratings**: - Maintained an MSCI rating of AA for three consecutive years and improved to a 3A rating from Wind [2][4][8] - Announced plans for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, with carbon intensity below the industry average by 93% [2][8] Future Plans and Projects - **KFM Phase II Project**: - Expected to commence production in 2027, adding a processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year and an additional 100,000 tons of copper [2][9][10] - **Ecuador Odin Gold Mine**: - Acquisition completed in June 2025, with preparations proceeding as planned [3][10] - **Organizational Changes**: - Focus on organizational transformation to enhance management efficiency and capitalize on rising commodity prices [2][9] Financial Management - **Debt and Cash Flow**: - Total liabilities slightly decreased, with a stable asset-liability structure; cash flow from operating activities saw a slight decline due to reduced trade cash flow and increased inventory [3][7][15] - **Cost Management**: - C3 costs decreased year-on-year, with expectations for further reductions before the KFM Phase II project begins [28] Market Challenges - **Congo Export Quotas**: - The company is managing cobalt production under the new quota system, which has led to inventory being classified as stock rather than sales costs [23][24] - **Electricity Supply Issues**: - Addressing electricity shortages through investments in hydroelectric and solar projects to mitigate impacts on future copper production [27] Additional Insights - **Stock Management**: - The company has strategies in place for managing unsold inventory due to government-imposed shortages, viewing cobalt as a long-term valuable asset [24][22] - **Incentive Programs**: - Implemented an H-share incentive plan to support strategic initiatives and align interests among key personnel [3][26] This summary encapsulates the essential information from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market challenges.

Group 1 - The core transaction on October 27 involved a block trade of 10 million shares of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., with a transaction value of 173 million yuan and a price of 17.29 yuan per share [1][2] - In the last three months, Luoyang Molybdenum has recorded a total of five block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 341 million yuan [1] - The closing price of Luoyang Molybdenum on the same day was 17.29 yuan, reflecting a 3.04% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 2.28% and a total trading volume of 6.924 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Luoyang Molybdenum is 3.375 billion yuan, which has increased by 205 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 6.47% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum was established on December 22, 1999, with a registered capital of 4.2788620352 billion yuan [2]

进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生5笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为3.41亿元。该股近5个交易日累计 上涨14.43%，主力资金合计净流入11.52亿元。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 10月27日，洛阳钼业收涨3.04%，收盘价为17.29元，发生1笔大宗交易，合计成交量1000万股，成交金 额1.73亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 第1笔成交价格为17.29元，成交1,000.00万股，成交金额17,290.00万元，溢价率为0.00%，买方营业部为 中信证券股份有限公司总部(非营业场所)，卖方营业部为中信证券股份有限公司深圳滨海大道证券营业 部。 ...