作者： 贺晓青，科尔尼全球合伙人，大中华区总裁 王娅欣，科尔尼董事 李古岳，科尔尼项目经理 全文首发于《中欧商业评论》 2025 年 4 月 2 日 本文是 " 科尔尼深度 ——2024 中国消费市场大洗牌：五大趋势洞察新拐点 " 系列文章的渠道话题延伸。 如果说以卖场为代表的现代渠道是中国零售渠道变革的第一波浪潮，百花齐放的线上化是第二波浪潮，那 么在线上获客成本上升的当下，我们看到了 第三波渠道变革的趋势。无论是电商还是线下渠道，新零售业 态的发展都吸引了市场的目光。 值得注意的是，线下实体渠道虽然在过去被电商遮掩了光芒，但是随着会员店、折扣店等新兴渠道的兴 起， 线下渠道这个最贴近消费者、最具温度的渠道正在重新回到市场的聚光灯下 —— 未来或成为渠道组合 中的独特机会点。 前言 随着中国宏观经济环境变化，消费者心态也在悄然变化，由从前的" 任性消费 "向" 理性消费 "回归。 消费者并非"断舍离"式的节衣缩食，而是不再被漫天的营销噱头和品牌溢价所裹挟。 反观供应端，零售业在经历过疫情前围绕"场"和"货"的迭代与试错后，围绕" 人 "的消费趋势也在变化 ——即重构"货场"价值链，以更有的放矢地搭配满足消费 ...

Core Insights - NBCUniversal's streaming service Peacock is now available to Spectrum TV Select customers at no additional cost as part of a multi-year distribution agreement, enhancing the value of Spectrum's video offerings [1][3] - Spectrum TV Select customers will receive ad-supported Peacock Premium, which has a retail value of $7.99 per month, providing access to live sports, news, and entertainment programming [1][2] - The partnership aims to create a healthier video ecosystem and offers customers access to multiple streaming services, potentially saving them up to approximately $80 per month [2][3] Company Overview - Spectrum, operated by Charter Communications, provides advanced communication services to nearly 57 million homes and businesses across 41 states, including internet, TV, mobile, and voice services [5] - NBCUniversal is a leading media and entertainment company, known for its diverse portfolio that includes television networks, a motion picture company, and a premium ad-supported streaming service, and is a subsidiary of Comcast Corporation [6] Strategic Developments - The integration of Peacock into Spectrum's offerings follows a transformation of its programming distribution agreements to include streaming services, enhancing the overall entertainment experience for customers [3] - Spectrum's hybrid distribution strategy now includes access to multiple streaming services such as Max, Disney+, ESPN+, Paramount+, ViX, and Tennis Channel, with more services expected to be added [3]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's stock has experienced a significant decline after reaching a 52-week high, primarily due to disappointing fiscal Q2 earnings and high valuation expectations, raising questions about whether it presents a buying opportunity at a discount [1][2]. Financial Performance - Costco's net sales for fiscal Q2 2025 increased by 9.1% year over year to $62.53 billion, with comparable sales rising by 6.8% [2]. - Paid household memberships grew to 78.4 million, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, while executive memberships rose by 9.1% to 36.9 million [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.02, up from $3.92 a year ago, reflecting an 8.4% growth when excluding a prior year's tax benefit [5]. E-commerce and Growth - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 22.2% year over year, driven by strong demand in various categories, including home furnishings and small electrics [4]. - Membership renewal rates remain high, at 93% in the U.S. and Canada, and 90.5% globally, indicating strong customer loyalty [3]. Valuation Concerns - Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 54, suggesting that investors expect high single-digit sales growth and double-digit EPS growth for the foreseeable future, which may be overly optimistic [6]. - Despite the recent stock price decline, Costco still trades at a significant premium, leaving little room for error in future performance [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for Costco remains strong, with continued growth in sales, earnings, and memberships, alongside effective cost management and e-commerce expansion [8]. - However, the current stock valuation may lead to modest returns if growth only meets expectations, prompting investors to consider waiting for a more favorable entry point [9].

沃尔玛、开市客转嫁关税压力给中国供应商，有企业利润锐减40% 界面新闻记者 | 赵晓娟 界面新闻编辑 | 牙韩翔 广东一家从事食品工业的公司最近非常悲观，因为北美订单的关税政策问题，损失的订单和利润亏损已经无法承受。 "到目前为止，订单量锐减，导致利润总额同比减少了40%以上。"该公司经理告诉界面新闻。 上述企业只是本轮美国对中国商品加征关税风波中被波及到的企业缩影。 3月4日起，美国对中国输美产品征收额外10%关税，累计加征关税率达到20%。为此，沃尔玛和开市客（Costco）等美国零售商要求部分中国供应商大幅降 价，以抵消美国加征关税带来的成本压力，尤其是厨具和服装等产品，部分供应商被要求在每轮关税调整中承担10%的价格降幅。 图片来源：视觉中国 针对近期沃尔玛可能要求中国供应商降价的行为，中国商务部已约谈沃尔玛。商务部称，沃尔玛已对相关情况进行了说明，但未能给出更多细节。 界面新闻多次就此向沃尔玛和开市客方面进一步了解情况，但均未能得到回应。 而部分中国供应商已经受到牵连。上述广东食品工业公司的80%业务来自海外客户，他们为合作的贸易公司生产定制的食品包材制品，例如包装袋、纸盒等 产品。这家企业的经理告 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Costco is a strong investment option due to its consistent business performance and high membership renewal rate of 93% in the U.S. market, indicating customer loyalty [2][3] - The majority of Costco's profits come from membership fees rather than product sales, allowing for steadier annual earnings compared to traditional retailers [3] Group 2: Competitive Position - Costco's comparable-store sales increased by 9% in the last quarter, outperforming competitors like Target (2%) and Walmart (5%) [4] - The company's e-commerce revenue, which includes discretionary products, grew by 22% last quarter, showcasing its ability to thrive in various market conditions [5] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Appeal - Costco shares are trading at over 50 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation compared to Walmart's P/E ratio of 36 and Target's 0.5 times sales [6] - Despite a lower dividend yield compared to Walmart, Costco is expected to deliver market-beating returns as it continues to gain market share and expand into new growth areas [7][8]

Summary of US Retailing Broadlines & Hardlines Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US retailing broadlines and hardlines sector, analyzing future consumer shopping trends and identifying potential winners among retailers [1][12]. Key Insights E-commerce Growth - US e-commerce sales have reached $1.2 trillion annually, accounting for approximately 16% of total retail sales [2][24]. - E-commerce has gained an average of 60 basis points (bps) market share per year since 1993, accelerating to 107 bps per year over the last decade [14][18]. - Discretionary categories are expected to lead in e-commerce penetration, while food and beverage categories lag behind [22][27]. Retailer Performance - Walmart (WMT) is viewed as a structural winner due to its scale and investment in automation, which supports profitability improvements [2]. - Target (TGT) faces challenges due to its smaller scale and limited investments, leading to persistent margin headwinds in e-commerce [2][40]. - Costco (COST) is selective in its e-commerce efforts, focusing on partnerships for same-day delivery rather than in-house fulfillment [38]. Retail Media Opportunities - The retail media market could grow to $100 billion by 2028, representing about 19% of total media ad spend [3][74]. - Walmart's retail media could become a $10 billion business, while Target's Roundel is already a $2 billion business [3][72]. Labor Market Challenges - Inflationary pressures and tightening immigration policies may increase labor costs, with dollar retailers being the most vulnerable due to their low pay models [5][60]. Supply Chain and Global Sourcing - Retailers manage complex supply chains with up to 50% of cost of goods sold (COGS) coming from imports [4][88]. - Target and Dollar Tree are most exposed to tariff risks due to their higher discretionary exposure [4][86]. Consumer Behavior Trends - The pandemic shifted consumer preferences towards "do it for me" (DIFM) services, but there is potential for a rebound in DIY home improvement projects among younger homeowners [6][12]. - Millennials and Gen-Z are expected to show a greater propensity for DIY compared to older generations [6]. AI and Future Retail Landscape - The rise of AI agents poses a potential threat to traditional retail models by automating shopping decisions [79]. - Despite this, physical retail remains relevant, especially for grocery offerings, as consumers still prefer in-store shopping for certain products [82]. Investment Implications - Ratings for key retailers include: - Costco (COST): Outperform, Target Price (TP): $1,177 - Walmart (WMT): Outperform, TP: $113 - Dollar General (DG): Outperform, TP: $95 - Lowe's (LOW): Outperform, TP: $289 - Target (TGT): Market-Perform, TP: $124 - Dollar Tree (DLTR): Market-Perform, TP: $80 - Home Depot (HD): Market-Perform, TP: $421 [9]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of scale in retail as a defense against competition from e-commerce and AI [84]. - The potential for deglobalization to impact sourcing strategies and cost structures is highlighted, particularly for retailers heavily reliant on imports [100].

Core Viewpoint - The current market uncertainty, primarily due to tariff announcements from the Trump administration, has negatively impacted investor sentiment, with the S&P 500 trading approximately 9% below its February peak [1] Company Performance - Costco has shown impressive performance with a total return of 224% over the past five years, despite its shares being 16% below their record high set in February [2] - For fiscal 2025 second quarter, Costco reported a same-store sales (comps) growth of 6.8%, continuing a streak of consistent growth even during challenging economic conditions [3][4] - The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% over the past decade, with expectations for the same growth rate between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027 [4] Competitive Position - Costco's scale and operational efficiency contribute significantly to its success, with net sales of $62.5 billion in the second quarter, making it the third largest retailer globally [6] - The company maintains a competitive edge by offering everyday low prices, supported by a membership base of 78.4 million households, which grew by 6.8% year-over-year and boasts a 93% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada [7] Market Dynamics - Despite competition from Amazon and its Prime membership, Costco has consistently grown its membership, revenue, and EPS, indicating strong consumer preference for in-person shopping [8] - The current valuation of Costco shares is high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.6, leading to skepticism about the potential for similar investment returns as seen in the past [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's membership-based business model continues to thrive, providing significant value despite low gross margins, with a notable increase in stock price and resilience against market downturns [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of February 2025, Costco's comparable sales grew by 8.3% year-over-year, with e-commerce sales increasing by 20.2% [1]. - The company reported a net income margin of 2.8% for Q2 FY2025, an increase from 2.4% in FY2019, and a strong adjusted EPS growth to $4.02 [3]. - Revenue projections show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from FY2024 to FY2027, with net income expected to grow at 11.5% [4]. Membership and Customer Loyalty - Costco's membership renewal rate stands at 90.5% globally, indicating strong customer loyalty, with a 93% renewal rate in the UCAN region [2]. - The average sales per warehouse are projected to reach $260 million by 2024, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year increase [2]. Expansion Plans - The company plans to expand its global warehouse count to 897 by March 2025, with 25 new warehouses expected to open in FY2025 [3]. - Costco's strategy includes maintaining low pricing by marking up products only 15%, compared to the supermarket industry's average markup of 25-50% [7][8]. Valuation and Market Position - Despite recent sell-offs, Costco's forward P/E ratio stands at 50.02, significantly higher than the sector median of 16.22, indicating a premium valuation [6]. - The forward PEG ratio of 5.51 suggests that Costco remains expensive compared to its historical averages and industry peers [7]. - The stock price is currently around $900, with a fair value estimate of $691.30, indicating limited upside potential [9].

Core Insights - The article provides a perspective on stock analysis and investment opportunities based on the author's unique insights and experience in the field [1] Group 1 - The analyst expresses a commitment to sharing contrasting views on their portfolio to assist other investors [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3] - The article clarifies that the analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered professional investment advice [3] Group 2 - The author discloses that they have no current stock or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and no plans to initiate such positions in the near future [2] - The article highlights that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are made [4] - It is noted that the views expressed may not reflect those of the broader platform, Seeking Alpha, as the analysts are independent authors [4]

2025年03月16日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：半导体回升，消费板块趋弱 本周，美股进一步回撤，标普500跌2.3%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素2000成长-1.2%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值-1.8%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值-1.9%）>大盘成长（罗素1000成长-2.6%）。 4个行业上涨，20个行业下跌。强势行业：半导体产品与设备（+4.4%）、能源（+2.6%）、公用事业（+2%）、保险（+0.4%）；弱势行业：技术硬件与设备（- 8.8%）、食品与主要用品零售（-6.3%）、耐用消费品与服装（-6.2%）、消费者服务（-5.6%）、运输（-5.4%）。 资金流向：资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 本周，美股资金 ...