今天分享的是：2025年全球零售力量报告-德勤 报告共计：87页 德勤《2025年全球零售力量报告》聚焦全球零售行业发展态势，揭示行业在挑战中通过技术创新、效率优化与模式变革寻求突 破的核心逻辑。 2023财年，全球零售250强企业零售收入达6.03万亿美元，同比增长3.6%，净利润率3.7%。其中，多元化产品领域以6.3%的五年 复合增长率居首，服装与配饰行业净利润率达9.8%。沃尔玛、亚马逊等头部企业通过AI技术提升运营效率，如沃尔玛利用生成 式AI优化超8.5亿条产品数据，亚马逊推出Sequoia机器人系统提升库存效率75%。 报告指出四大趋势重塑行业格局。一是战略性运营效率成为核心，企业借助自动化与供应链优化降本增效，如家得宝引入谷歌 云AI技术改善库存管理，Kroger与Ocado合作升级自动化履约中心。二是AI驱动技术转型加速，生成式AI被广泛应用于个性化推 荐与内容创作，Shein、Coupang等企业依托算法实现年均超40%的收入增长。三是可持续发展从理念转为实践，沃尔玛提前六年 完成"兆吨计划"，Aldi取消塑料购物袋并推动包装100%可回收。四是替代收入来源拓展，零售媒体网络规模2025年 ...

Core Insights - Costco is opening a new standalone gas station in Mission Viejo, California, which will be exclusive to its members and feature 40 pumps without a convenience store [1][5]. - The gas station is strategically located near the Laguna Nigel warehouse, which currently sells gas at $4.35 per gallon, compared to California's average of $4.61 per gallon [2]. - The new gas station is part of Costco's strategy to enhance member benefits and has been positively received, contributing to record-high gasoline sales in recent months [5][9]. Group 1 - The city of Mission Viejo has approved the construction of a Costco gas station, which will replace a former Bed, Bath and Beyond store [1]. - The gas station will not include a convenience store and will be located at the Mission Viejo Freeway Center, just off Interstate 5 [1]. - Costco's gas prices are competitive, with the current price at its nearby location being lower than the state average [2]. Group 2 - Costco's CEO noted that the company experienced two of its highest gasoline sales weeks in April, attributed to extended gas station hours and new openings [5][7]. - The new gas station hours are set from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. on weekdays, with slightly reduced hours on weekends, although these may vary in California and Hawaii [7]. - The positive member response to extended hours has led to improved usage of Costco's gas stations [9].

Group 1 - Costco has a strong business model as a club store, generating significant revenue from membership fees, which support operating profits and earnings [2][4][5] - Membership fees account for approximately $1.2 billion in revenue, nearly half of Costco's operating profit of about $2.5 billion in Q3 2025 [4] - The company boasts a high membership renewal rate of over 90%, indicating customer satisfaction and loyalty [6] Group 2 - Costco's sales grew by 8% in Q3, with same-store sales increasing by 5.7% and customer traffic up by 5.2% [8] - Customers are purchasing 0.4% more on each visit, showcasing the strength of Costco's business model amid economic uncertainty [8][10] - In contrast to other retailers like Target, which experienced sales declines, Costco continues to perform well [8] Group 3 - Despite its strong business performance, Costco's valuation is a concern, with price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios above their five-year averages [11] - The stock price is near all-time highs, making it a challenging investment for those focused on valuation [12] - Investors may prefer to wait for a potential price drawdown before purchasing, as historical data shows notable drops in the stock price [12][14]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's May sales results indicate strong performance, with implications for stock trajectory [1] - The company's membership-driven model and high renewal rates contribute to reliable revenue streams [2] Sales Performance - For the four weeks ending June 1, 2025, comparable sales in the U.S., Canada, and other international markets grew by 4.1%, 3.3%, and 6.6% respectively, leading to a total company comparable sales increase of 4.3% [3] - Net sales for May rose by 6.8% to $20.97 billion, compared to $19.64 billion in the same period last year, following sales improvements of 7% and 8.6% in April and March [3] Membership Growth - Costco's membership fee income continues to grow, with a high renewal rate of 92.7% in key markets, indicating effective customer retention strategies [4] - The retailer had 79.6 million paid household members at the end of Q3 fiscal 2025, a 6.8% year-over-year increase, while executive memberships grew by 9% to 37.6 million [5] E-commerce and Omnichannel Strategy - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 11.6%, with overall e-commerce comparable sales increasing by 14.8% in Q3 [6] - Costco Logistics deliveries increased by 31%, driven by higher volumes of large and bulky items, and the introduction of a Buy Now Pay Later program enhances purchasing flexibility for members [6] Expansion Plans - Costco opened nine warehouses in Q3, with plans for 10 more in the final quarter, aiming for a total of 27 openings in fiscal 2025, bringing the global warehouse count to 914 [7] Financial Performance and Valuation - Costco's stock has increased by 17.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 8.4% [12] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 51.44, significantly higher than the industry average of 32.81 and the S&P 500's ratio of 22.02, indicating a premium valuation [13] Analyst Estimates - Analysts have raised their estimates for the current fiscal year by 8 cents to $18.04, with next fiscal year's estimate increasing by 14 cents to $19.90, suggesting year-over-year growth rates of 12% and 10.3% respectively [10]

Group 1 - Dollar General and Dollar Tree are experiencing significant recoveries in 2025, with Dollar General up 49.5% and Dollar Tree up 25.2% year to date, compared to a 2.1% gain in the S&P 500 [1][2] - Both companies had low expectations going into 2025 due to struggles with inflationary pressures and price increases [4][6] - Dollar Tree's decision to raise its base price to $1.25 in 2021 affected demand, and it is selling Family Dollar for about $1 billion, a significant loss compared to its $9 billion purchase price in 2015 [5][6] Group 2 - Dollar General's sales are increasing, but its margins are near a 10-year low due to pricing pressure, while Dollar Tree's revenue is down significantly due to store closures and demand pressures [7][9] - Despite mediocre results, the low expectations set the stage for a rebound in both stocks [10] - Walmart and Costco, while having thin margins, have successfully delivered value to customers, maintaining steady sales and decent margins [11][12] Group 3 - Walmart and Costco have higher valuations, with forward P/E ratios exceeding 20, while Dollar General and Dollar Tree have lower valuations under 20 [15][19] - Quality is more important than current valuation, as companies that consistently improve earnings can grow into their valuations [17] - Dollar General offers a dividend yield of 2.1%, while Dollar Tree has never paid a dividend, contrasting with Walmart's 0.9% and Costco's 0.5% yields [18] Group 4 - A 50/50 split of Dollar General and Dollar Tree is suggested over Walmart and Costco due to their lower valuations and slower growth rates of the latter [19][20] - Investing in high-quality companies is not advisable if their valuations are excessively high, especially when faster-growing alternatives are available at reasonable multiples [20]

Group 1 - Costco Executive Members in the US and Canada will receive a $10 monthly credit towards delivery orders starting June 30, 2025, applicable on orders of $150 or more [1][3] - The monthly credit is automatically applied to qualifying orders placed through sameday.costco.com, sameday.costco.ca, or Instacart, and is exclusive to Executive Members [3][4] - Instacart has been partnering with Costco for same-day delivery since 2017, with an expansion of services in 2021 to include Costco's same-day delivery website [4] Group 2 - Instacart operates as a leading grocery technology company in North America, partnering with over 1,800 retailers to facilitate online shopping and delivery services [6] - The Instacart platform supports more than 100,000 stores across North America, enabling millions of consumers to access groceries from their preferred retailers [6] - Instacart provides a suite of technology products and services to enhance e-commerce experiences for retailers, including advertising services and insights [6]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector is facing significant tariff risks that can increase costs for businesses, impacting profits and pricing strategies for consumers [1] Group 1: Walmart - Walmart reported quarterly sales of $165.6 billion, a 4% increase excluding foreign exchange effects, with operating income rising over 4% to $7.1 billion [4] - Approximately 60% of Walmart's sales come from grocery operations, making it more resilient to tariff impacts compared to other retailers [5] - The stock has increased by over 7% this year, trading at more than 41 times its trailing earnings, indicating stability for long-term investors [6] Group 2: Costco Wholesale - Costco's comparable revenue growth was 8%, with total revenue reaching $63.2 billion and net income increasing by 13% to $1.9 billion [7] - Tariffs have raised costs for Costco, leading to price increases, but bulk purchasing allows consumers to save money [8] - The stock is up 9% this year but trades at 57 times its trailing earnings, suggesting potential overvaluation and risk if economic conditions worsen [9][10] Group 3: Dick's Sporting Goods - Dick's Sporting Goods announced plans to acquire Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, aiming to expand its customer base [11] - The company achieved a same-store sales growth of 4.5%, marking five consecutive quarters of over 4% growth, despite an 11% decline in net income to $264 million [12] - The stock has declined over 20% this year but trades at just 13 times its trailing earnings, presenting a potential value buy for long-term investors [13][14]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's comparable sales increased by 6% in May, indicating a strong start to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, despite a gradual deceleration from previous months [1][9] - The U.S. market saw a 5.5% increase in comparable sales, while Canada and Other International regions reported gains of 6.3% and 8.4% respectively, highlighting Costco's global strength [2] - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 12%, reflecting robust demand across digital channels [2][9] Sales Performance - Total company comparable sales, including gasoline prices and foreign exchange effects, rose by 4.3% in May, leading to net sales of $20.97 billion, a 6.8% increase from $19.64 billion in the same month last year [4][9] - The ongoing sales momentum suggests Costco could finish the final quarter positively, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [3][5] Competitive Landscape - Dollar General Corporation reported a 2.4% increase in same-store sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by a 2.7% rise in average transaction amounts [6] - Target Corporation experienced a 3.8% decline in comparable sales, attributed to a 5.7% drop in store sales, although digital sales increased by 4.7% [7] Valuation and Estimates - Costco's stock has increased by 10.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 6.3% [8] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Costco stands at 52.14, higher than the industry average of 33.53 [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8% in sales and 12% in earnings per share for the current financial year [11]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) demonstrated strong comparable sales growth in May, appealing to value-focused consumers in an inflationary environment [1][5] Sales Performance - For the four weeks ending June 1, 2025, Costco reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in total comparable sales, with U.S. sales up 4.1%, Canada up 3.3%, and Other International markets up 6.6% [2] - Adjusted comparable sales, excluding gasoline price fluctuations and foreign exchange impacts, showed U.S. comps climbing 5.5%, Canada up 6.3%, and Other International markets up 8.4%, leading to an overall growth of 6% [3] - E-commerce sales surged 11.6%, or 12% when adjusted for fuel and currency, continuing the trend of strong online performance [4] Financial Highlights - Costco's net sales for May increased by 6.8% to $20.97 billion, compared to $19.64 billion in the same period last year, following sales improvements of 7% in April and 8.6% in March [4][7] Business Model Strength - The company's membership-based structure, high renewal rates, efficient supply-chain management, and bulk purchasing power are key drivers of growth and customer loyalty [5]

Core Insights - Costco's 2024 financial report shows impressive performance with total revenue soaring to $254.4 billion, surpassing the combined revenue of Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson, and boasting a paid membership count of 137 million [1] - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2005 to 2024, significantly outperforming Walmart and Target, which only achieved a 3% growth rate [1][6] - Despite operating under a low gross margin of 15%, Costco has managed to achieve a net profit margin exceeding 2% [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Costco's business model is characterized by "double stability" (steady growth and expansion) and "double low" (low gross margin and low operating costs), alongside "four highs" (high membership retention, high sales per store, high product turnover, and high net profit) [3][14] - The company has demonstrated resilience through economic cycles, maintaining steady growth despite challenges such as financial crises and shifts in consumer behavior [5][6] - Costco's cautious store expansion strategy contrasts sharply with traditional retail practices, focusing on sustainable growth rather than rapid expansion [8][9] Group 2: Membership and Customer Loyalty - As of 2024, Costco has 76.2 million paid members globally, with a remarkable renewal rate of 90.5%, indicating strong customer loyalty [17] - The average sales per store for Costco are nearly double that of Sam's Club and over three times that of BJ's, showcasing its superior sales efficiency [18] - Costco's private label, Kirkland Signature, has become a significant revenue driver, contributing approximately 23% to total revenue in 2023 [103] Group 3: Financial Performance - In fiscal year 2024, Costco reported a net profit of $7.4 billion, with $4.8 billion coming from membership fees and $2.6 billion from retail profits [21] - The company's operating profit margin reached 3.65% in 2024, the highest level since 2000, reflecting its effective cost management strategies [15] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Costco's strict self-imposed rule of maintaining a gross margin below 15% creates a competitive barrier, ensuring long-term price advantages [15][57] - The company has achieved a significant reduction in operating expenses, with an operating expense ratio of only 9%, compared to 19% for Walmart and 21% for Target [71] - Costco's unique approach to customer service and employee satisfaction fosters a loyal workforce, which in turn enhances customer experience [110]