Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Deckers despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Deckers is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.68 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 9.3%, while revenues are projected to be $899.21 million, an increase of 9% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.15% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +6.45% for Deckers, suggesting analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - However, Deckers currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Deckers exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $1.00 per share against an expected $0.57, resulting in a surprise of +75.44% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Deckers has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - While Deckers may not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, it is essential to consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The global fashion and luxury goods industry is experiencing diverse development, with intense capital market competition and deep brand strategy adjustments [1] - Hermes is accelerating the expansion of its Swiss watchmaking workshop to strengthen its vertical integration strategy [1][10] - Gucci has postponed its Spring/Summer 2026 women's fashion show, indicating a shift in brand strategy under new creative director Demna [1][3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - The CEO of Galeries Lafayette Group has changed, with Arthur Lemoine taking over from Nicolas Houzé [1][7] - Dynamic Treasure Group has been ordered by the Singapore High Court to return 15.5% of SMCP's shares to its parent company [1][10] - Le Coq Sportif has a new owner, with a consortium led by Swiss businessman Dan Mamane acquiring the brand [1][12] Group 3: Financial Performance - Hoka's brand popularity is declining, with a 10% growth in Q4 2025, significantly lower than previous quarters [1][8] - Hermes family has surpassed the Arnault family as the richest in France, with a wealth of €163 billion [1][5] - SMCP reported a 3.4% year-on-year increase in sales for Q1 2025, reaching €297 million [1][10] Group 4: Market Insights - The auction of Hermes' first Birkin bag prototype for €8.6 million highlights the strong growth of the luxury second-hand market [1][4] - Decathlon's acquisition of the French professional cycling team AG2R La Mondiale aims to deepen its involvement in cycling sports [1][9]

Group 1: Lululemon Athletica - Lululemon is experiencing a significant decline in stock price, down 54% from a high of $516 to $235, despite a 19% annualized revenue growth over the last decade [5][6] - The stock is currently trading at 16 times forward earnings estimates, indicating a potential undervaluation given the brand's future growth prospects [6][9] - Lululemon's trailing-12-month revenue stands at $10.8 billion, which is considerably lower than competitors Nike and Adidas, who collectively generate $72 billion in annual sales [6][7] - The company has shown resilience with a 7% year-over-year revenue increase in the most recent quarter, contrasting with declines at Nike [7] - Increased search interest for Lululemon on Google suggests that the market may be underestimating its long-term growth potential, particularly in international markets [8] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor, known for brands like Hoka and Ugg, has seen its stock drop 52% from its peak earlier this year, attributed to slowing growth and market uncertainties [10][11] - The company anticipates a $150 million increase in costs due to tariffs, impacting its projected revenue of around $5 billion [12] - Despite short-term challenges, Deckers expects 9% revenue growth in the first quarter and double-digit growth for Hoka throughout the year [13] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16, suggesting it may be oversold and could rebound if growth resumes [14] Group 3: Roku - Roku has faced challenges post-pandemic, leading to slowing growth and losses, but maintains a dominant position in ad-supported streaming [15] - In the first quarter of 2025, Roku reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase, primarily driven by its advertising segment, which constitutes 86% of total revenue [16] - The company has enhanced user engagement through its Roku channel, which became the second-most watched channel in the U.S., with an 84% increase in viewing hours year-over-year [17] - A partnership with Amazon aims to expand advertising reach, leveraging AI for targeted exposure, while Roku's stock is currently 82% off its all-time highs but has risen 40% over the past year [19]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index was up 5.5% by the midway point of 2025 and recently hit a new all-time high, raising questions about future growth amid uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies [1] Group 2: UnitedHealth - UnitedHealth shares were down 38% as of the end of June, with a market cap reduced to around $275 billion from over $500 billion [4] - The stock is trading at 13 times trailing earnings, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average P/E of 24, suggesting potential undervaluation [5] - The company has withdrawn its guidance for the year due to rising costs, but there is potential for a positive earnings surprise in the latter half of the year [6][7] Group 3: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology shares were down 30% at the half-year mark, with high growth expectations due to its application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) used by hyperscalers [9] - The company reported $1.9 billion in revenue for the most recent quarter, a 63% year-over-year increase, indicating strong growth potential [10] - Marvell's forward P/E multiple of 27 is considered attractive compared to its historical averages, positioning it well in the AI market [11] Group 4: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor shares were down 49% through the first six months of the year, impacted by exposure to China and economic challenges [12] - The company reported over $1 billion in quarterly sales, a 6% year-over-year increase, with net income rising by 19% to $151 million [13] - Trading at 17 times trailing earnings, Deckers is viewed as attractively priced for a growing business, with potential to outperform the S&P 500 in the second half [14]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) has reported strong financials but has seen mediocre stock performance since its Q3 earnings release at the end of January, which included guidance that was lower than Wall Street expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company posted its Q3 earnings at the end of January, indicating robust financial health [1] Market Reaction - Following the Q3 earnings report, the stock price has not performed well, attributed to the lower-than-expected guidance provided by the company [1]

Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) designs, markets, and distributes premium footwear and apparel brands including UGG, HOKA, Teva, and Sanuk, with HOKA and UGG being the main sales drivers [1] Growth Drivers - The company has experienced impressive growth, primarily driven by the explosive gain in popularity of the HOKA brand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, which includes increased tariffs on imports from Vietnam, has led to a rise in stock prices for companies like Nike and Lululemon, but analysts warn of potential downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to the new tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new agreement imposes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, compared to the previous 10% tariff [2]. - UBS analysts predict that earnings per share for covered apparel manufacturers and retailers will be adjusted downwards by an average of 3% to 5% for this year and next [3]. - Companies such as Victoria's Secret, Under Armour, and G-III Apparel Group are expected to be most affected, with potential earnings adjustments of 12% to 20% [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The difficulty of relocating manufacturing back to the U.S. is highlighted, as many companies are currently negotiating with suppliers to share the burden of the new tariffs [4]. - Analysts note that Vietnam is a crucial sourcing location for many apparel brands, with significant percentages of their products being manufactured there: On Holding (90%), Deckers Outdoor (75%), and Nike (42%) [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Despite the increase in tariffs, some analysts believe the market's initial concerns may have been overstated, as the new tariff rates are lower than previously feared [4]. - Possible reasons for the initial rise in apparel stocks include the market having already priced in higher tariffs, a belief that further tariff increases are unlikely, and the perception that the cost impact of tariffs can be managed [4].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has rebounded approximately 5.5% in the first half of 2025, recovering from a previous decline of 15.3% [1] - Many stocks are trading near all-time highs, despite some underperformers in the index [2] Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst performer in the S&P 500, down 49% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company reported a 16% year-over-year sales increase, totaling just under $5 billion, and a 30% rise in diluted per-share profit to $6.33 [4] - Concerns over tariffs and trade policies have led to uncertainty, causing the company not to provide full-year guidance [5] - The stock trades at 17 times estimated future profits, below the S&P 500 average of 23, indicating potential as a contrarian buy [6] Enphase Energy - Enphase Energy is down 42% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to uncertainty surrounding solar tax credits [7] - The company reported net revenue of $356.1 million for the first three months of 2025, a 35% increase from the previous year [7] - Enphase has over $1.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, positioning it well for future growth [8] - With a market cap of just over $5 billion, the company has significant potential for future appreciation [9] UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth Group has seen a nearly 40% decline in value in 2025, impacted by rising costs and investigations into its billing practices [10] - The company missed earnings expectations and withdrew its guidance amid a CEO change [11] - Despite challenges, UnitedHealth generated over $410 billion in revenue and $22 billion in earnings over the past four quarters [12] - The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 13, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term investors, along with a yield of 2.9% [13]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) anticipates a significant impact on its business due to recent U.S. trade policy changes, particularly higher tariffs, expecting an increase of up to $150 million in cost of goods sold for fiscal 2026 [1][10] Group 1: Business Impact - Less than 5% of Deckers' footwear production comes from China, with most production based in Southeast Asia, primarily Vietnam, which reduces but does not eliminate exposure to tariff impacts [2] - The company plans selective and staggered price increases in the U.S. and is negotiating cost-sharing agreements with manufacturing partners, but these measures will only partially offset the added costs [3] - Deckers expects its gross margin, which was a record 57.9% in the previous year, to decline in fiscal 2026 due to tariffs, increased promotional activity, higher material costs, and rising freight charges [4] Group 2: Financial Position and Strategy - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, Deckers maintains a strong balance sheet with $1.9 billion in cash and no debt, focusing on long-term growth through brand investment, international expansion, and operational efficiency [5] - Shares of Deckers have declined by 48.7% year to date, compared to the industry's decline of 14.8% [9] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for DECK is 16.83X, slightly below the industry's average of 17.60X, with a Value Score of D [12] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK's fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 4.4%, while fiscal 2027 estimates suggest a 9.1% increase [14] - Recent earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 30 days [14]

Core Insights - Urban Outfitters (URBN) is currently rated as a 1 (Strong Buy) by Zacks, while Deckers (DECK) holds a 4 (Sell) rating, indicating a more favorable investment outlook for URBN [3] - URBN has a forward P/E ratio of 14.25 and a PEG ratio of 1.19, suggesting it is undervalued compared to DECK, which has a forward P/E of 16.83 and a PEG ratio of 6.19 [5][6] - The P/B ratio for URBN is 2.69, significantly lower than DECK's P/B of 6.16, further supporting URBN's position as the superior value option [6][7] Valuation Metrics - URBN's forward P/E ratio of 14.25 indicates a more attractive valuation compared to DECK's 16.83 [5] - The PEG ratio for URBN is 1.19, while DECK's is 6.19, highlighting URBN's better earnings growth potential relative to its price [5] - URBN's P/B ratio of 2.69 contrasts with DECK's 6.16, suggesting URBN is more aligned with traditional value metrics [6] Investment Outlook - The solid earnings outlook for URBN, combined with its favorable valuation metrics, positions it as a more attractive investment compared to DECK [7]