Core Points - Glencore held its 2025 Capital Markets Day to present key information to investors [1] Group 1 - The event featured a presentation by Martin Fewings, Head of Investor Relations & Communications [1] - The presentation included multiple slides, indicating a comprehensive overview of the company's strategy and performance [1] - A Q&A session was scheduled to take place after the presentation of the slides [1]

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a preliminary agreement to collaborate on a smelter project in Chile, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the copper industry [1] Group 1: Project Details - Codelco will supply copper concentrate for the smelter, which will be constructed by Glencore in the Antofagasta region of northern Chile [1] - The smelter is expected to have an annual processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tons [1] - The project is estimated to require an investment of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [1] Group 2: Timeline and Future Plans - Glencore will conduct a preliminary feasibility study, with both companies aiming to finalize the agreement by mid-2026 [1] - If the project proceeds as planned, construction is expected to begin in 2030, with operations starting between 2032 and 2033 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a copper smelter in Antofagasta, Chile, aiming to enhance local copper processing capacity and reduce reliance on foreign smelting [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Codelco will supply up to 800,000 tonnes per annum of copper concentrate to Glencore for a minimum of ten years, with a potential ten-year extension [2]. - The planned smelter will have a processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum of concentrate [2][3]. - The investment required for the project is estimated between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [3]. Group 2: Project Timeline and Feasibility - Glencore will conduct a pre-feasibility study, with the aim to finalize the agreement in the first half of next year [3]. - Engineering studies for feasibility and permitting are expected to be completed by 2027, with construction anticipated to start in 2030 and operations beginning between 2032 and 2033 [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - Chile currently holds only 6% of global copper smelting capacity, with a significant portion of its copper being processed in China, which controls half of the world's smelting capacity [4]. - The Chilean government is working to expand local smelting infrastructure, including a $1.7 billion modernization project led by ENAMI [5]. - The Codelco-Glencore agreement aligns with national objectives to increase domestic smelting capacity [5]. Group 4: Glencore's Broader Strategy - Glencore plans to restart operations at its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, with production expected to commence by the first half of 2028 [5]. - Once operational, the Alumbrera mine is projected to produce approximately 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years [6]. - Glencore aims to expand its annual copper production to around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, reversing a multi-year decline in output [6].

据悉，国际能源署近期发布的数据显示，即使在高产量的情况下，到2035年全球铜供应缺口仍将达到20%。美国高盛集团日前发布报告预计，自明年开始， 铜价将迈入新的高价交易阶段。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 （央视财经《天下财经》）据多家外媒报道，受到全球铜供应趋紧和对美国潜在关税的担忧等，当地时间3日，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及每吨 11540美元的历史高位，国际铜价继续刷新历史新高。 业内人士表示，此轮铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。首先，全球铜供应趋紧推高铜价。受到智利矿山坍塌事故影响，全球矿业与大宗商品巨头嘉能可近日宣布 下调今年铜产能至85万吨到87.5万吨，比2018年减少近四成，同时该公司也下调了2026年铜产量预期。其次，市场普遍预测特朗普政府明年或对铜加征关 税。分析师称，为规避关税，近期出现包括铜在内大量金属运往美国的情况，全球铜库存可能很快降至危急的低位水平。最后，全球对于铜资源需求旺盛， 比如电网和电力基础设施升级带来的需求呈爆发式增长，也是推高铜价的原因之一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Glencore plans to restart operations at the Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, which was the last copper-producing mine in the country before its closure in 2018 [1] Group 1: Company Plans - The Alumbrera copper mine, located in the northern part of Catamarca province, is expected to begin production in the first half of 2028 [1] - The decision to resume operations is based on a robust tax regime that supports investment in Argentina's mining sector, alongside rising copper and gold prices and a positive outlook for these commodities [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Under the leadership of President Javier Milei, Argentina has introduced a tax incentive program called the "Large Investment Incentive System" (RIGI), which has benefited mining companies [1]

Group 1 - Codelco has signed a memorandum of understanding with Glencore for collaboration on a Chilean smelter project [1] - Under the agreement, Codelco will supply up to 80,800 tons of copper concentrate annually to Glencore, which will lead the project development [1] - Codelco will not directly construct or fund the smelter, and Glencore will conduct a feasibility study with the aim to finalize the deal by mid-next year [1] Group 2 - If the project proceeds, construction is expected to start in 2030, with production anticipated in 2032-2033 [1] - Codelco selected Glencore through a bidding process for this collaboration [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market is further weakening, with the unexpected decrease in ADP employment in November, which intensifies economic downward pressure, weakens the US dollar, and boosts market risk - appetite [1][13][16]. - Gold prices are oscillating and closing higher around $4200, affected by the weakening US labor market and the expectation of future Fed's loose policy [2][13]. - The sugar market is influenced by the production situation in various regions. Brazil's lower - than - expected sugar production and faster - than - expected harvest progress in November support the outer - market prices, while the situation in China's Guangxi region and India also has an impact on the market [3][30][32]. - Copper prices reach new highs due to the resonance of macro and fundamental positive factors, such as the increased market expectation of Fed rate cuts and the significant increase in LME提货订单 [4][56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI is 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2025. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, indicating a weakening labor market [12][13]. - Gold prices are oscillating and closing higher around $4200. The market expects the Fed to implement loose policies in the future, boosting commodities. Short - term gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's allies are discussing the personnel arrangement after Kevin Hassett takes over the Fed. US Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to reform the Fed [14][15]. - The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, indicating a weakening labor market, which weakens the US dollar. The US dollar is expected to continue weakening in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November ISM services PMI reaches a nine - month high. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, increasing the market's expectation of a December rate cut to nearly 90% [18][20]. - The market is expected to be more volatile in the short term but should be treated with a bullish mindset overall [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Premier Li Qiang emphasizes combining urban renewal with safety hazard elimination and stabilizing the real estate market. China's service trade deficit from January to October 2025 decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [22][23]. - A - share market is dull. It is recommended to allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 3, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [25]. - The market sentiment of treasury bond futures is weak, but the TL contract is expected to have limited room for further decline [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean production forecast for the 25/26 season is 46.9 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, but the sowing is delayed [28]. - China's soybean procurement situation and South American weather need to be continuously monitored. Soybean meal futures prices are expected to oscillate [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November 2025/26 season, Guangxi produced 133,900 tons of mixed sugar. Thailand's 2025/26 season sugarcane benchmark purchase price is 890 Thai baht/ton [29][31]. - India's sugar production as of the end of November is 4.135 million tons, and it is expected to produce 31.5 million tons of net sugar this season. Brazil's sugar production and sugar - making ratio in November are lower than expected, supporting the outer - market prices [32][34]. - It is not advisable to short the Zhengzhou sugar January contract, as the downside space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - 232 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. From January to November, China's home appliance trade - in exceeded 128.44 million units [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound before the December important meeting, but the overall space is limited [37][38]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Changzhi market has decreased. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [38]. - The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with slow supply recovery and weakening demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The national corn starch industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory continued to decline [40]. - It is recommended to operate around the current North China processing fee in the rice - flour price difference strategy [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wenshi plans to reduce costs and optimize production capacity through technological upgrading [42]. - The pig market shows a pattern of "stable futures and pressured spot". Near - end contracts are expected to oscillate under pressure, while far - end contracts can be considered for low - buying operations [42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was weak on December 3, and the inventory continued to accumulate [44]. - After the end of replenishment, the steam coal price is expected to oscillate at a high level and decline seasonally from December to January [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vale expects to reach the upper limit of its 2025 iron ore production target and increase production in 2026 [45]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue oscillating, as the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The seasonal inventory accumulation in the northern port is still slow, and the inventory in the southern port continues to decline at a low level [47]. - It is not recommended to short corn unilaterally. For far - month contracts, the medium - long - term strategy is to buy on dips [48]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high in November due to high production and low exports [49][50]. - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the difference between the MPOB report and market expectations [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore lowers its 2026 copper production forecast but aims to reach 1.6 million tons by 2035 [52]. - The LME copper提货订单 increased significantly, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts intensified. Copper prices reached new highs, and it is recommended to buy on dips [54][56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project was successfully connected to the grid, and it is expected to be officially put into production in the first quarter of 2026 [57]. - The polysilicon market is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. It is recommended to operate with caution [58][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The utilization rate of new energy in October 2025 shows different trends. The production in the southwest may decrease, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [61]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the 0 - 3 cash spread oscillated. The SHFE lead inventory decreased, and the delivery risk increased [63][64]. - The lead price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 cash spread was high. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the supply decreased [65]. - The zinc price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive - spread positions [65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Chinese scientists set a new record for the superconducting transition temperature of nickel - based superconductors [66]. - The supply - demand surplus of refined nickel has been marginally repaired, but there is still a surplus. It is recommended to consider low - buying opportunities with a light position [66][67]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Vulcan Energy obtained nearly $2.5 billion in financing for the European largest lithium project [68]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies and buy on dips in the medium term [68][69]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production growth is limited [73]. - The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased slightly in the week ending November 28 [74]. - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events [74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt increased slightly this week [76]. - The asphalt market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - China's polyethylene production enterprises are expected to produce 2.9798 million tons in December 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 18.39% [79]. - The PE supply - demand situation is bearish, but attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week, slightly exceeding expectations [80]. - The methanol market's fundamental contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to conduct positive - spread operations [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise today [82][83]. - Although the market sentiment is optimistic, the pulp supply is still in surplus, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [84]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased slightly this week [85]. - The styrene market is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance expectations and the behavior of port core cargo - right holders [86][88]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The full - scale promotion of methanol as a marine fuel still faces challenges [89]. - The container freight rate market is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to consider low - buying operations with a light position [90].

Market Review - On December 4, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.14% to 49,932.93 points, while the KOSPI index fell by 0.43% to 4,018.91 points [4] - On December 3, U.S. stock indices opened lower but closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% at 6,849.72 points, the Nasdaq up 0.17% at 23,454.09 points, and the Dow Jones up 0.86% at 47,882.9 points [4] - U.S. robotics stocks surged, with Nauticus Robotics up over 115%, iRobot up over 73%, and Serve Robotics up over 18% [4] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high, with delivery orders showing the largest single-day increase since 2013 [4] International Macro - The latest ADP report indicated a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [5] - President Trump commented positively on the recent meeting between U.S. envoys and President Putin, indicating a desire to end conflicts [5] - The Trump administration is reportedly accelerating the development of robotics technology, with plans for an executive order next year [5] Corporate News - Micron Technology announced the closure of its retail channel business to focus on advanced storage chips for the AI era, with existing inventory to be sold until the end of Q2 FY2026 [6] - Glencore plans to double its copper production over the next decade, aiming for an annual output of 1.6 million tons by 2035 [6] - Apple's design executive Alan Dye is leaving to join Meta as Chief Design Officer, focusing on integrating AI into Meta's consumer products [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to increase its annual copper production to approximately 1.6 million tons by 2035, nearly doubling its current output [2] Group 1: Production Targets - The company has revised its 2026 copper production target down to 810,000 to 870,000 tons from the previous 930,000 tons, primarily due to operational setbacks at the Collahuasi mine in Chile [2] - It is anticipated that 2026 will be a low point for production, with output expected to gradually recover starting in 2027 [2] Group 2: Expansion Strategy - The expansion strategy is proposed against a backdrop of continuously rising global copper prices and increasing long-term demand for copper in sectors such as data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [2] - The expansion plan mainly relies on the development of existing mining projects, including the Collahuasi mine in Chile and several mines in Argentina, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - The company reaffirms its plan to increase copper production to 1 million tons by 2028 [2]

Group 1 - The core strategy of Glencore is to significantly increase copper production, aiming to reach approximately 1.6 million tons by 2035, nearly doubling current levels [1] - The company has adjusted its short-term production forecast, lowering the 2026 copper production target from 930,000 tons to a range of 810,000 to 870,000 tons due to operational setbacks at the Collahuasi mine in Chile [3] - The announcement of the expansion plan coincides with record-high copper prices, with prices surpassing $11,500 per ton, driven by long-term demand growth in sectors such as data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [3] Group 2 - The expansion plan will focus on upgrading existing mines, with key projects including the Collahuasi mine in Chile and several important mining sites in Argentina, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Glencore has decided to restart the Bajo de la Alumbrera mine in northwest Argentina, which was closed in 2018 due to resource depletion and community opposition, with production recovery progressing under the current Argentine government's favorable foreign investment policies [7] - The company plans to advance the El Pachón project in Argentina with an estimated total investment of $9.5 billion, considering partnerships to share risks and reduce costs, marking a shift from the previous management's stance against new mine developments [8]