Group 1 - Metallium has entered into a binding e-scrap supply agreement with Glencore, allowing for the supply of up to 2,400 tonnes per annum of e-scrap for its US operations [1][2] - This agreement marks a significant commercial milestone for Metallium, transitioning the company from development to commercial commissioning and execution [2][5] - The multi-year supply arrangement with Glencore provides Metallium with the throughput certainty necessary to expand its US operations and supports the rollout of multiple production lines [3][4] Group 2 - The agreement enhances Metallium's position in the US critical materials recycling sector, facilitating closer collaboration with downstream refiners and strategic partners [4] - Metallium's CEO emphasized the importance of this agreement for securing consistent, high-quality feedstock, which is crucial for the company's processing technology [5] - While specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, they are standard for Glencore's secondary-materials supply arrangements, underscoring the strategic importance of the deal [6]

Group 1 - The Congolese mining regulatory authority has decided to extend the cobalt export quotas set for Q4 2025 until March 31, 2026, to ensure a smooth implementation of the new quota system [1] - The total cobalt export cap for the year 2025 has been established at 96,600 tons, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounting for approximately 70% of global cobalt production [1] - The demand for cobalt has surged due to the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle industry, which has led to increased international cobalt prices following previous export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Glencore is expected to be one of the first companies to initiate shipments under the new quota system, while China Molybdenum has been preparing for its first cobalt exports [2] - China Molybdenum has been allocated a cobalt export quota of 6,650 tons for Q4 2025, and the company is working to comply with the Congolese government's export procedures [2] - Several administrative processes, including shipping, customs declaration, and final approvals, must be completed before the exports can officially commence [2] Group 3 - The Congolese government announced a suspension of cobalt exports in February 2025, initially set for four months, to address the oversupply in the international market that was causing a decline in prices [3]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡收十字星，总持仓下降 9850 手，盘面 01-02 价差缩窄至 190，现货铜跌 205 至 93470，现货贴水扩大 20 至 215，现货进口亏损扩大至 1600 以上，进口窗 口关闭，LME0-3back 扩大至 6.58，同时沪伦比值继续下跌，外盘价格表现持续强 于内盘。日内有 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil price has dropped significantly due to weak demand and geopolitical factors, with a total decline of approximately 20% this year, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 [2] - The commodity trading giant Trafigura warns of a "super surplus" in the oil market next year due to a combination of supply surge and declining global demand [2] - Analysts predict that the peak of supply surplus will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of continued inventory growth throughout the year, putting further pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices have surged from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,000 per ounce, marking a significant bull market with a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [4] - Central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 254 tons from January to October, providing substantial support for gold prices [4] - The International Clearing Bank (BIS) warns of potential bubble signs in the gold market due to excessive optimism and rising valuations, which could lead to a price correction of 5% to 20% [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - The price of copper is expected to remain robust due to global industrial transformation, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected demand increase of around 3% in 2026 [7] - Supply constraints, exacerbated by incidents such as the collapse of a copper mine in Chile, have led to reduced production forecasts, supporting copper prices [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 will be driven by investments in power infrastructure, indicating strong long-term prospects for copper [8]

（来源：经济参考报） 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许多专家和投资银行认为，当前市场正在累积库存，这一趋势将持续到 2026年年初。美国能源信息署和华尔街银行也看空未来一年的石油市场，预测2026年平均油价将低于60 美元/桶。 高盛等机构的分析师表示，尽管市场对原油供应过 ...

Company Strategy - Kazzinc (哈萨克矿业公司，由 Glencore 控股) 将向竞争对手开放金属销售 [1] Industry Trend - 各国政府寻求加强对自然资源的控制和增加收入 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore is acquiring the Quechua copper project in Peru, marking the third copper mining deal in the country within two weeks, as companies rush to invest in this metal expected to face supply shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Transactions - Glencore's acquisition of the Quechua project follows two other transactions in Peru: Rio2 Ltd. purchased the Condestable project for $241 million, and Fortescue agreed to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper Corp. [1] - The Peruvian government estimates the construction investment for the Quechua project to be approximately $1.3 billion [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The surge in copper mining transactions in Peru coincides with copper prices nearing historical highs, with prices having risen over 30% this year due to production disruptions and challenges in developing new mines [1]. - Copper is viewed as a critical metal for electrification and energy transition [1]. Group 3: Glencore's Strategy - Glencore is increasing its investment in Peru as part of its plan to double global copper production, despite facing sporadic protests and broader tensions between local communities and the mining industry [2]. - The Quechua project adds to Glencore's existing assets in the region, which include the Antapaccay mine and the future Coroccohuayco project [2]. - The Antapaccay mine, which began production in 2012, produced approximately 146,000 tons last year [2]. Group 4: Future Production Goals - Glencore plans to increase its annual copper production to around 1.6 million tons by 2035, reversing a trend of declining copper output [3]. - The company anticipates a 40% decrease in copper production this year compared to 2018 and aims to reach a production target of 1 million tons by 2028, including plans to restart the Alumbrera mine [3].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has expanded its operations in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project, enhancing its position among metal producers in the country [1] Group 1 - The acquisition of the Quechua copper project is located adjacent to Glencore's existing Antapaccay operations in Peru [1] - This strategic move is aimed at strengthening Glencore's presence in the Peruvian mining sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - JX Advanced Metals' subsidiary Pan Pacific Copper has sold its entire stake in Compañía Minera Quechua to Glencore Peru Holding, allowing Glencore to take over the Quechua copper project and enabling JX to reallocate resources to align with its long-term strategy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - JX Advanced Metals holds a 47.8% ownership stake in Pan Pacific Copper, which has sold all issued shares of Compañía Minera Quechua to Glencore Peru Holding [1]. - Following the sale, Glencore will control all mining interests in the Quechua copper project, which PPC has evaluated since acquiring interests in 2007 [1][2]. - PPC deferred development of the Quechua project to prioritize the Caserones copper and molybdenum project and due to challenges in independent development [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale allows JX Advanced Metals and its equity partners to reallocate resources to initiatives that align with their individual policies [3]. - JX Advanced Metals is rapidly expanding its Focus Businesses in the advanced materials sector while optimizing its Base Businesses in mineral resources, metals, and recycling [3][4]. - The company aims to strengthen supply chains for copper and minor metals and curb volatility through portfolio restructuring in its Mineral Resources segment [4][5]. Group 3: Production Adjustments - In September, it was reported that JX Advanced Metals plans to reduce its copper production by several tens of thousands of tonnes in fiscal year 2025 compared to previous projections [6].

Core Viewpoint - JX Advanced Metals Corporation has transferred full ownership of the Quechua copper project to Glencore Peru Holding through its affiliate Pan Pacific Copper, marking a strategic shift in asset management and development focus for both companies [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) has sold 100% of the shares in Compania Minera Quechua (CMQ) to Glencore Peru Holding, which now fully owns the Quechua copper project [1]. - CMQ held the mining concessions for the Quechua project, which has not progressed to development despite several feasibility studies over the past decade [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Glencore, a major player in the mining sector, is expected to utilize its existing regional infrastructure to enhance operational efficiency and integrate the Quechua project into its broader copper operations in Peru [3]. - The transaction is part of JX Advanced Metals' Long-Term Vision 2040, which involves a portfolio realignment focusing on advanced materials and reducing exposure to large-scale copper projects [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The acquisition reflects a broader industry trend where diversified mining companies are rebalancing their portfolios to manage commodity price volatility and secure supply chains for strategic materials [5]. - Peru continues to be a leading copper producer, and the consolidation of assets by large operators is becoming more common as they seek economies of scale amid various operational pressures [6].