[行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 北美科技龙头二季报：业绩纷纷超预 期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 本期内容提要: 北美 CSP 二季报： 业绩纷纷超预期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 谷歌：ummar云业务需求强劲，上调全年 y] ] CapEx ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple stocks in the communication sector, including 沪电股份 (002463.SZ), 美格智能 (002881.SZ), 中际旭创 (300308.SZ), 天孚通信 (300394.SZ), and others [1]. Core Insights - The WAIC 2025 conference highlighted the acceleration of AI large model iterations and the growing investment opportunities in the computing power industry chain [2][7]. - The conference showcased significant trends such as the practical application of embodied intelligence, AI enhancing personal efficiency, and the emergence of AI agents [3][6][21]. - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for computing power driven by advancements in AI models and the potential for AI-driven digital interactions to become a new hot sector [9][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication sector index rose by 2.54%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.75% [14][16]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including major telecom operators and technology companies involved in AI and computing power [26][27]. WAIC 2025 Highlights - The WAIC 2025 conference, held from July 26 to 28, featured over 800 companies and 3,000 exhibits, marking a significant milestone in AI development [2][28]. - Key trends observed include the practical implementation of embodied intelligence, AI's role in enhancing personal productivity, and the introduction of AI emotional companion products [3][6][21][31]. AI Model Developments - Google's Gemini 2.5 Deep Think model was introduced, showcasing improved performance in various benchmarks [7][39]. - The domestic model GLM-4.5 was released, achieving top rankings in multiple performance tests and offering competitive API pricing [8][49][50]. - Alibaba's launch of the Wan2.2 video generation model represents a significant advancement in video generation technology [52][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on the computing power industry chain, highlighting the increasing need for advanced computing capabilities as AI models evolve [9][25]. - Recommended stocks span various sectors, including telecommunications, cloud computing, and AI technology, indicating a broad investment strategy [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The current data center construction boom driven by AI is shifting funding sources from traditional equity financing to a growing and opaque "private credit" market, raising concerns about systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Data Center Construction Boom - The capital expenditure of major tech companies in the U.S. has reached a record level, totaling $102.5 billion in the recent quarter, primarily driven by Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon [3]. - AI-related capital expenditures have contributed more to U.S. economic growth than all consumer spending over the past two quarters [3]. - Current investments in AI infrastructure have surpassed the peak telecom investments of the late 1990s, with telecom capital expenditures reaching $120 billion in 2000, accounting for 1.2% of GDP at that time [6]. Group 2: Shift to Debt Financing - The growth rate of capital expenditures for tech giants has outpaced their cash flow growth, leading to an increased reliance on debt financing, particularly through private credit [7]. - Microsoft’s financing lease related to data centers has nearly tripled since 2023, indicating a significant rise in debt financing [7]. - Private credit is becoming a crucial funding source for the data center boom, with its scale rapidly expanding and becoming a significant part of the U.S. debt market [7][10]. Group 3: Systemic Risks and Financial Institutions - Banks are becoming increasingly exposed to private credit, with their loans to private credit companies rising from 1% in 2013 to 14% of total loans to non-bank financial institutions [12]. - The interconnectedness between banks and the private credit market poses potential risks, especially if there are unexpected defaults concentrated in the data center sector [12]. - Insurance companies, particularly life insurers, have significantly increased their exposure to below-investment-grade corporate debt, surpassing the scale of subprime mortgage-backed securities held in 2007 [13].

Investment Strategy - The explosive demand for computing power is driving a significant increase in capital expenditures (capex), with infrastructure construction expected to enter a golden period. Major companies like Microsoft and Meta are reporting substantial profit and capex growth, indicating a high level of activity in the computing power industry. For instance, Microsoft's net profit for Q2 was $27.23 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, while its capital expenditure rose by 27% to $24.2 billion. Meta's net profit grew by 36% to $18.34 billion, with projected capital expenditures for 2025 reaching between $66 billion and $72 billion [4][10][14]. - The token economy's business model is being validated, with domestic demand for computing power expected to accelerate. Alphabet reported processing over 980 trillion tokens monthly, with ChatGPT's weekly active users surpassing 700 million. The weekly token consumption for large models has seen a nearly fivefold increase from January to July 2025 [11][12]. - The "AI+" policy is catalyzing growth in industry applications. The Chinese government is actively promoting the commercialization of AI, with local policies supporting the expansion of AI applications. For example, Shanghai has issued measures including the distribution of 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers [12][15]. Industry News - Major overseas companies are experiencing significant growth in performance and capital expenditure. Microsoft's Q2 revenue reached $76.44 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, while Meta's revenue was $47.52 billion, up 22%. Both companies attribute their growth to the deep application of AI technology [14]. - The State Council of China has approved the "AI+" action plan, emphasizing the need for large-scale commercialization of AI applications. This policy aims to leverage China's complete industrial system and large market scale to promote AI integration across various sectors [15]. - The rapid launch of satellites indicates an acceleration in satellite internet construction in China. Recent successful launches of low-orbit satellites demonstrate the country's commitment to enhancing broadband communication services [16][17]. - Eight major banks have jointly released financial service products for the "AI+ manufacturing" sector, with a commitment to provide at least 400 billion yuan in credit by the end of 2027. This initiative aims to support the intelligent transformation of manufacturing enterprises [18]. Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 4.12% increase this week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.57%. Notable gains were observed in optical modules and optical communication sectors, with increases of 9.86% and 5.29%, respectively [19][21]. - The focus for the upcoming week includes investment opportunities in the AIDC chain and related sectors, with companies such as ZTE Corporation and Inspur Information being highlighted for potential growth [23].

作者 | 冬梅 8月1日晚，谷歌宣布向 Google AI Ultra 订阅用户推出 Deep Think 功能，Gemini 2.5 Deep Think 模型在今年的国际数学奥林匹克竞赛 (IMO) 上夺得金 牌。 谷歌亮相 IMO 竞赛夺冠模型 谷歌表示，这是其最先进的人工智能推理模型，能够通过同时探索和考虑多个想法来回答问题，然后使用这些输出来选择最佳答案。 从昨天起，谷歌每月 250 美元的 Ultra 订阅用户将可以在 Gemini 应用程序中访问 Gemini 2.5 Deep Think。 Gemini 2.5 Deep Think 于 2025 年 5 月在 Google I/O 开发者大会上首次亮相，是谷歌首个公开的多智能体模型。这些系统会生成多个 AI 智能体来并行 处理一个问题，这个过程比单个智能体消耗更多的计算资源，但往往会得到更好的答案。 除了 Gemini 2.5 Deep Think 之外，谷歌还表示将向特定数学家和学者群体发布其在国际海事组织 (IMO) 中使用的模型。 谷歌表示，该 AI 模型"推理只需数小时"，而不像大多数面向消费者的 AI 模型那样只需几秒或几分钟。该公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) by major overseas tech companies validates the high prosperity of the computing power industry, while the urgency for domestic computing power autonomy is highlighted due to security concerns with Nvidia chips [2][3]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Google raised its 2025 CapEx forecast by 13.3% to $85 billion - Meta increased its lower CapEx guidance to $66 billion - Microsoft reported a 27% year-on-year growth in Q2 CapEx to $24.2 billion - Amazon's Q2 CapEx surged by 90% to $31.4 billion, with an annual guidance of $110-120 billion - These investments are primarily directed towards AI data centers, large model computing, and cloud facility upgrades, driving core demand in the AI and computing power supply chain [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the power generation sector, particularly recommending Weichai Heavy Machinery for its strong growth potential - Attention is also advised for the gradually increasing penetration of HVDC segments, with recommendations for Kehua Data, Hezhong Electric, and Tonghe Technology - Additionally, companies benefiting from power upgrades and liquid cooling segments are highlighted, including Invec, Shenling Environment, and Oulu Tong [3]. Overall Sector Rating - The electric power equipment sector maintains a "recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment sector [4][15]. Core Viewpoints - The increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) by major overseas tech companies such as Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon validates the high prosperity of the AI and computing power industry, indicating a long-term growth opportunity in the computing infrastructure sector [12][13][14]. - The urgency for domestic computing power autonomy is highlighted by the recent security issues surrounding NVIDIA chips, which may accelerate the development of domestic chip manufacturers [14]. Summary by Sections Investment Insights - The report emphasizes that the power generation sector remains a logical choice for both volume and profit growth, recommending companies like Weichai Heavy Machinery, and also suggests focusing on the gradually increasing penetration of HVDC segments with companies like Kehua Data, Hewei Electric, and Tonghe Technology [4][14]. - It also highlights the benefits for server power supplies and liquid cooling segments, recommending companies such as Invec, Shenling Environment, and Oulu Tong [4][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that major tech companies have collectively raised their 2025 capital expenditure plans, reflecting sustained demand for computing power driven by AI [12][13]. - It mentions that the domestic computing power industry is expected to see accelerated growth due to increased focus on data security and core technology autonomy [14]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a table of key companies with their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a bullish outlook for companies like Magpower and Shenling Environment, which are rated as "Buy" [16][17].

如果要从过去两周全球最大科技公司公布的支出计划中吸取什么教训，那就是永远不要低估错失恐惧症的威力。 这四家公司今年预计总支出将超过 3440 亿美元。 其中大部分将用于运行 AI 模型所需的数据中心。" 由于 AI ，我们基本上将云计算的资本支出增加了两倍， " 彭博行业研究分析师 Mandeep Singh 表示。 图片来源： 彭博社 在本财报季，几乎所有公司高管都强调要尽快投资以抢占先机。微软首席财务官艾米 ·胡德周三在电话会议上告诉分析师： " 我们需要团队全力以 赴，以最快最有效的方式完成产能建设 " 。 Meta 首席财务官李苏珊表示，其支出的目标是确保 " 在开发最佳 AI 模型方面获得优势 " 。 华尔街的反应褒贬不一。 Meta 获得了市场回报——主要原因是该公司第二季度销售额远超预期，并发布了乐观的收入预测，表明其在 AI 上的数十亿美元投入正在见效。首 席执行官马克·扎克伯格在分析师电话会议上表示： " 在广告业务方面，本季度的强劲表现主要得益于 AI 技术为我们广告系统带来的更高效率和收 益提升。 " 微软公司上季度创下了 242 亿美元的资本支出纪录 ，本季度计划投入超过 300 亿美 ...

Core Insights - The current data center construction boom, driven by AI investments, raises concerns about a potential infrastructure bubble reminiscent of past financial crises [1][2][5] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, have significantly increased capital expenditures, totaling $102.5 billion in recent quarters, with some companies spending over one-third of their total sales on these investments [1][2] - AI-related capital expenditures have contributed more to U.S. economic growth than consumer spending in recent quarters, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [2] Group 1: Investment Trends - The capital expenditure growth rate of tech giants has outpaced their cash flow growth, leading to increased reliance on debt financing, particularly through a large and opaque "shadow banking" system [2][7] - Private credit is emerging as a significant funding source for the data center boom, with companies like Meta negotiating loans up to $30 billion with private credit institutions [2][6][7] Group 2: Historical Context - Current investments in AI infrastructure have surpassed the peak telecom investments of the late 1990s, with telecom capital expenditures reaching $120 billion in 2000, accounting for 1.2% of GDP at that time [5] - Historical precedents, such as the railroad and telecom bubbles, ended in overbuilding and unmet demand, raising questions about the sustainability of current investments [5] Group 3: Financial System Implications - The increasing role of private credit in financing tech investments poses risks to traditional financial systems, as banks are becoming major lenders to private credit firms [11] - A report indicates that banks' loans to private credit companies have surged from 1% in 2013 to 14% of total loans to non-bank financial institutions, highlighting the interconnectedness and potential risks [11][13] - Insurance companies, particularly life insurers, have also increased their exposure to below-investment-grade corporate debt, reminiscent of the risks seen in the 2008 financial crisis [13]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced significant declines last Friday, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.23%, Nasdaq down by 2.24%, and S&P 500 decreasing by 1.6% [1] - Major tech stocks also saw losses, including Amazon down 8.27%, Meta Platforms down 3.03%, Apple down 2.50%, Nvidia down 2.33%, Tesla down 1.83%, Microsoft down 1.76%, and Google A down 1.44% [1] Employment Data - In July, the US non-farm payroll added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [2] AI Developments - Sam Altman announced that OpenAI's valuation has reached $300 billion, with plans to release numerous products in the coming months [2] - Anthropic has blocked OpenAI's API access ahead of the GPT-5 release [2] - Google released its IMO 2025 gold medal model, Gemini 2.5 Deep Think, potentially competing with GPT-5 [3] Clinical Trials - Elon Musk's brain-machine interface company is set to launch clinical trials for brain chips in the UK, aimed at helping paralyzed patients control devices with their thoughts [4] Military Contracts - The US Army is simplifying its collaboration model with Palantir, potentially leading to a contract worth $10 billion [5] Pharmaceutical Research - Eli Lilly announced long-term results from its TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 Phase III clinical study, confirming the long-term value of early intervention in Alzheimer's disease [6] Oil Production - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production, raising daily output by 548,000 barrels in September [7] A-Share Market Strategy - Analysts suggest that the recent short-term index adjustments are not concerning, maintaining a "slow bull market" trend [9] - The market is supported by three core logic points: bottom-line thinking in macro and capital market policies, the emergence of new growth drivers, and the influx of incremental capital [9] - Concerns about the impact of US stock market adjustments on A-shares are mitigated by historical data indicating that A-shares are less affected during the early stages of a bull market [9] AI Coding Tools - Barclays reported that the AI website building tool Lovable achieved $100 million in annual recurring revenue within eight months, surpassing other well-known AI tools [11] - Lovable's platform allows users to input ideas in a chat interface, with AI generating backend code and completing integrations, termed "vibe coding" [11] Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission of China is taking measures to address "involution" competition among private enterprises [12] - The People's Bank of China is establishing a macro-prudential and financial stability committee and promoting the digital yuan [12] Company Announcements - China Shenhua is considering issuing shares and cash to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, involving 13 company equities, leading to a stock suspension [16] - Jichuang Vision is planning a change in control, resulting in stock suspension [17] - Sanan Optoelectronics intends to acquire 100% of Lumileds Holding B.V. for $239 million to enhance its product line and profitability [18]