Investment Rating - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession over the next 12 months, suggesting a cautious investment stance in the current macroeconomic environment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant tariff-induced impact on US growth, with expectations of a slowdown in hard data by mid-to-late summer, following initial signs of weakness in soft data [1][2]. - Despite recent market reassurances from political figures regarding tariffs, the report suggests that markets are underpricing recession risks, which could lead to vulnerabilities if recession signs emerge [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to seek alternative hedges against recession risks, recommending traditional safe havens such as the Yen, Swiss Franc, and gold [3][6]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a sizable tariff-induced hit to US growth, with a notable risk of recession [1]. - It notes that while soft data shows early signs of slowdown, hard data remains solid for now, likely due to front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs [1]. - A full-blown recession could push the S&P 500 to around 4,600 and significantly impact the commercial real estate market [2]. China Economic Outlook - The report discusses China's economic performance, indicating that Q1 GDP growth may reflect frontloading in anticipation of US tariffs, with expectations of a significant drag from higher tariffs going forward [9]. - It predicts that Chinese policymakers will intensify easing measures, but the magnitude may not fully offset the tariff drag, leading to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q2 [9]. Commodity and Market Insights - The report highlights the potential for a 25% tariff on US copper imports by mid-2025, which the market is not currently pricing in [9]. - It suggests that despite reduced attractiveness of bonds as hedges, shorter-maturity USTs and curve steepeners could provide protection in a recession scenario [6].

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智通财经4月25日电，高盛预测未来12个月内美元兑日元将跌至135。 ...

Where do we start when the biggest Dow Industrials component, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH ), drops to number 2 (behind The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( GS )), thanks to losing 23% of its total market capitalization. In aI'm Rob Isbitts, founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing. I run the new investing group Sungarden YARP Portfolio, a community dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with humility, discipline, and a non-traditional approach to income investing. I've been charti ...

高盛集团的Richard Gnodde将从伦敦搬迁到米兰。Gnodde此番高调离开伦敦金融城，引发了更多关于英 国税制改革影响的疑问。Gnodde在管理高盛国际业务多年后，于今年1月被任命为副董事长，他是伦敦 金融城最著名的人物之一。"鉴于他的新职务，Richard将主要专注于为公司在欧洲各地开拓增长机 遇，"高盛的一位发言人在声明中表示，但他"将继续在伦敦办公室与我们的团队共事。"（彭博） ...

金十数据4月24日讯，高盛首席经济学家哈祖斯表示，受美国关税不确定性和经济衰退担忧的打击，美 元还会进一步下跌。哈祖斯写道，在关税已经推高通胀的情况下，美元进一步下跌将加剧价格压力。通 过降低出口价格，美元走软也将有助于缩小美国的贸易逆差，并帮助缓解经济衰退的影响。但哈祖斯指 出，美元走软的驱动因素很重要，对美国资产的需求减少可能抵消美元走弱对金融状况的影响。哈祖斯 表示，预测汇率比预测经济增长、通货膨胀和利率更难。但坦白地说，我认为最近美元在广泛贸易加权 基础上贬值5%的幅度还有相当大的空间。 高盛经济学家：预计美元还会进一步下跌 ...

Goldman Sachs shareholders voted to approve pay packages, including hefty retention bonuses, for top executives CEO David Solomon and president John Waldron.They also voted in favor of other management proposals including the election of the firm’s board of directors, according to a preliminary voting count announced during a virtual shareholder meeting in Dallas.Proxy adviser Glass Lewis had earlier recommended investors cast vote against the compensation plans, citing the bank’s “continued inability to al ...

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2025.A key force at the center of the stock market's massive two-day rally is the frantic behavior of short sellers covering their losses.Hedge fund short sellers recently added more bearish wagers in both single stocks and securities tied to macro developments after the whipsaw early April triggered by President Donald Trump's tariff rollout and abrupt 90-day pause, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage ...

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) released its first-quarter 2025 results on April 14, 2025. Since then, its shares have risen 5.2%.The company’s quarterly top and bottom-line numbers outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The solid improvement in trading revenues majorly supported Goldman’s performance, while the investment banking (IB) business was subdued.Following decent quarterly results, is the Goldman stock worth adding to your portfolio? Before checking that out, let us discuss the company’s quarte ...

Core Insights - The earnings season provides insights into the financial sector, revealing capital flow trends and macroeconomic outlooks [1] Group 1: Goldman Sachs Performance - Goldman Sachs reported cautious optimism, mirroring themes from BlackRock, with short-term optimism but long-term caution regarding interest rates and trade tariffs [2][9] - The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 25% over the past year, indicating investor hope for a favorable economic turn [6] - Goldman Sachs' equities business saw double-digit growth rates, suggesting client confidence in near-term performance despite tariff concerns [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - Analysts have a 12-month stock price forecast for Goldman Sachs at $593.40, indicating an 18.76% upside potential from the current price of $499.65 [8] - Wells Fargo reiterated an Overweight rating on Goldman Sachs, with a high forecast of $720 per share, suggesting a potential rally of 42% [8] - The Federal Reserve may consider lowering rates to stimulate the economy, positioning Goldman Sachs at the forefront of economic activity [9] Group 3: Business Segments - Goldman Sachs' mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department and IPO business were sluggish, reflecting clients' hesitance amid policy uncertainty [10] - Despite some dormant business lines, there is increased interest in future deals, indicating potential for a resurgence once clarity returns [10][11]