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每周资金流向:流向中国内地的外资速度加快-Weekly Fund Flows_ Faster Foreign Flows to Mainland China
2025-08-24 14:47
22 August 2025 | 1:00PM EDT Weekly Fund Flows Faster Foreign Flows to Mainland China Global fund flows, week ending August 20 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 20-Aug | 4wk avg | 20-Aug | | Equity | 7,355 | 3,034 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | Fixed Income | 98,580 | 23,489 | 0.27 | 0.26 | | of which: EM | 9,311 | 3,246 | 0.38 | 0.53 | | Money Markets | 129,229 | 1,283 | 0.32 | 0.01 | | FX Flows* | 26,382 | 20,363 | 0.05 | 0.15 | *Cross-bor ...
高盛交易员:现在,一切取决于8月的非农
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-24 12:54
美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上为9月降息铺平了道路,但关键仍在于即将公布的非农就业数据能否为降息节奏和幅度提供决定性指引。 就业数据修正引发担忧 高盛指出,对未来就业增长修正更可能偏向负面,原因包括多个方面。 该行强调,就业增长前景同样黯淡。与今年活动增长放缓类似,就业增长放缓似乎不仅仅来自贸易和移民政策变化的直接影响。 高盛特别担心,少数行业的"追赶式招聘"现在似乎已经结束,这些行业之外的就业增长已降至接近零的水平。该行认为: "目前对于均衡就业增长步伐存在巨大不确定性, 如果均衡水平确实如高盛全球投资研究部门估计的约8万人,那么3个月平均3.5万人的增长数据令人担忧。 " 此外,7月份数据的大幅修正规模也让美联储感到担忧。美联储可能担心,如果经济放缓即将到来而他们反应过晚怎么办?这种担忧可能促使他们采取更加积 极的降息行动。 降息路径取决于劳动力市场表现 展望9月之后,就业数据显示更大幅度放缓可能性的窗口期就是现在。 8月23日,高盛固定收益部门(FICC)交易员Rikin Shah等表示,在杰克逊霍尔会议之前,市场一直处于观望状态。 鲍威尔的最新表态 已为9月降息开了绿灯 ,特别是在最近的就业数 ...
高盛交易员:现在,一切取决于9月的非农
美股IPO· 2025-08-24 06:29
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the non-farm employment growth in September is below 100,000, it will help determine the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with concerns about the labor market's downward risks highlighted by Powell [1][2][13] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs expresses worries about future employment growth revisions leaning negative due to several factors, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [3][4] - The firm notes that the ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth, and household surveys may be overestimating immigration and job growth [4] Labor Market Outlook - The company is particularly concerned that the "catch-up hiring" in a few sectors seems to have ended, with employment growth outside these sectors nearing zero [5] - There is significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, making the current average growth of 35,000 jobs concerning [6] Rate Cut Path - The path for rate cuts is heavily dependent on labor market performance, with the current window for observing significant slowdowns in employment data being now [7] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on the August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions, which raises concerns [9] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The firm believes that regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing, there is a strong possibility that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve chair's term [10][14] - The current yield curve in June 2026 is flat, providing a framework for future policy considerations [11]
高盛交易员:美联储降息节奏和幅度取决于9月的非农
智通财经网· 2025-08-24 02:23
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key remains whether the upcoming non-farm payroll data can provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the cuts [1][9] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs indicates that future employment growth revisions are likely to be negative due to several factors [2] - The birth-death model may be overly optimistic [3] - Historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative [3] - ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth [3] - Household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [3] Labor Market Performance - The outlook for employment growth is bleak, with a significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates a balanced employment growth level of around 80,000, while the three-month average growth is concerning at 35,000 [3] - The substantial revision of July data has raised concerns for the Federal Reserve about potentially delayed responses to an impending economic slowdown [3] Rate Cut Path - The window for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently open [4] - Market focus on August non-farm data is heightened due to previous data revisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate cut, followed by cautious observation of the labor market for signs of further weakness [4] Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes there is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [5][7] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May next year, which may coincide with the end of the rate cut cycle [5] Yield Curve Considerations - The U.S. yield curve is currently flat as of June 26/28, 2026, providing a framework for future policy considerations [6]
高盛交易员:现在,一切取决于9月的非农
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-24 01:50
美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上为9月降息铺平了道路,但关键仍在于即将公布的非农就业 数据能否为降息节奏和幅度提供决定性指引。 8月23日,高盛固定收益部门(FICC)交易员Rikin Shah等表示,在杰克逊霍尔会议之前,市场一直处 于观望状态。鲍威尔的最新表态已为9月降息开了绿灯,特别是在最近的就业数据修正引起美联储对就 业市场关注的背景下。 这正是鲍威尔在上次FOMC新闻发布会上提及并在杰克逊霍尔央行年会演讲中重申的"劳动力市场下行 风险"的典型例证。高盛交易员认为,如果8月非农就业增长低于10万人,特别是在政治压力面前,将有 助于确定9月降息。 高盛指出,如果劳动力市场进一步疲软,时间窗口就在当前。该行认为,无论是在经济放缓还是正常化 情景下,美联储都很有可能在下任美联储主席上任前完成本轮降息周期,即2026年上半年结束前。 就业数据修正引发担忧 高盛指出,对未来就业增长修正更可能偏向负面,原因包括多个方面。 首先,出生-死亡模型可能过于乐观; 此外,7月份数据的大幅修正规模也让美联储感到担忧。美联储可能担心,如果经济放缓即将到来而他 们反应过晚怎么办?这种担忧可能促使他们采取更加积极的降息行动 ...
中国股票,大利好!外资,爆买!
券商中国· 2025-08-23 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The attitude of international capital towards Chinese assets is undergoing a significant shift, with increased foreign investment and optimism about the Chinese market's future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their net purchases of Chinese stocks, marking the highest net buying volume globally in August, with 90% of hedge funds holding long positions in Chinese stocks [2][3]. - Emerging market funds have significantly reduced their holdings in the Indian stock market while increasing their allocations to Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets [4][5]. - In June, foreign institutional investors saw a net inflow of $1.2 billion into the Chinese stock market, which further increased to $2.7 billion in July [6]. Group 2: Market Performance - On August 22, Chinese assets experienced a substantial rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to surpass 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, and the STAR Market 50 Index soaring over 8% [2][3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index also saw a significant increase of 2.71%, reflecting strong performance across various Chinese asset classes [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market will continue, driven by the attractive valuation of Chinese stocks and the potential for significant liquidity from domestic investors [8][9]. - The Bank of America survey indicates a rising optimism among fund managers regarding China's economic growth, marking the highest level of confidence since March 2025 [8]. - The potential for over 10 trillion RMB in additional capital inflow exists, as only 22% of household financial assets are currently allocated to funds and stocks [8].
券商大消息!证监会,最新发布
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-08-22 14:25
【导读】证监会发布《关于修改〈证券公司分类监管规定〉的决定》 周五重磅来了! 8月22日晚间,证监会发布《关于修改〈证券公司分类监管规定〉的决定》。 该次修改将标题由《证券公司分类监管规定》调整为《证券公司分类评价规定》(以下简称《分类评价规定》),与以分类评价为主的规定内容相适应。 《分类评价规定》自2025年8月22日起实施。 证监会指出,此次修改的总体思路,一是坚持目标导向。针对性突出监管目标,校正行业机构定位、提升治理水平,发挥好监管"指挥棒"作用。二是保持 总体稳定。此次修改立足局部完善、适度优化,不对既有评价体系进行重大调整。三是加强统筹协调。会同中国证券业协会梳理整合专项评价指标,避免 重复报送、减轻行业负担。 引导行业机构聚焦高质量发展 支持差异化、特色化经营 据介绍,证券公司分类评价制度是证券公司监管的基础性制度,《证券公司分类监管规定》是该制度的主要法规依据,于2009年发布实施,并于2010年、 2017年和2020年作了3次修改,已形成较为成熟的评价体系。但由于距离前一次修改已有5年,有必要对照防风险强监管促高质量发展要求,予以修改完 善。 首先,此次修改突出促进证券公司功能发挥的导向 ...
A股,大利好!高盛,最新发声!
天天基金网· 2025-08-22 06:01
Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about the Chinese stock market, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, despite recent gains in major indices [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the rebound began on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 21%, the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by more than 27%, and the ChiNext Index has surged over 43% [3]. - The CSI 300 Index has gained over 19%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have risen by 26.8% and 31.96%, respectively [3]. - The CPO index has shown the strongest performance with a rise of over 123%, while other indices related to technology and innovation have also seen significant increases [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs reports that only 22% of household financial assets are allocated to funds and stocks, indicating a potential inflow of over 10 trillion yuan into the market [4]. - There are signs of a shift in capital from bank deposits to stock investments, as evidenced by a negative monthly change in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits [4]. - Recent data shows that A-shares have become the most net bought market, with a buying ratio of 1.1 times, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 3: Retail Investor Participation - The participation of retail investors typically increases when the A-share market strengthens, and the current financing balance in the A-share market remains relatively low [5]. - UBS notes that the strong performance of the A-share market is attracting funds away from previously favored markets like India, with a shift towards more attractive valuations in A-shares and H-shares [5]. Group 4: Observations from Securities Firms - CICC has observed signs of deposits moving towards the stock market since May, including an increase in M1 growth and a shift in investment preferences from fixed-income products to equity funds [6][7]. - The potential inflow of household deposits into the stock market is estimated to be between 5 trillion and 7 trillion yuan, which could exceed previous market upswings [7]. - The overall valuation of the A-share market is considered reasonable, but increased trading volume may lead to short-term volatility [8]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to have ample space and opportunities due to the resilience of the Chinese economy and the accumulation of excess household savings [8]. - The current low ratios of total market value to household deposits suggest that the "migration" of household savings into the stock market is still in its early stages, with potential for significant future inflows [8].
高盛:中国股市仍有上涨空间 仍有大量“存量资金”尚未入市
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 05:53
高盛数据显示,近段时间以来,A股连续成为净买入最多的市场,买入倍数达到1.1倍。技术指标显示, 中国股市涨势正在扩散。约10%的上证综指成份股和8%的深证成指成份股创下52周新高。约90%的上证 综指和深证成指成份股交易价格高于50日移动平均线,显示出强劲的市场动能。这表明集中度风险正在 消退,市场对更广泛板块的信心正在增强。 高盛研报指出,目前仅有22%的家庭金融资产配置在股票和相关产品上。潜在资金流入规模超过10万亿 元,为市场提供充足的增量资金支撑。高盛称,这一趋势预示着中国股市尤其是中小盘股仍具备显著上 涨空间,中证1000和中证500等中小盘指数值得重点关注。受益于更高的散户持股比例、更均衡的行业 配置以及对高科技制造业的更大敞口。 高盛最新研报称,中国股市当前涨势主要由散户资金推动,但仍有大量"存量资金"尚未入市,为市场进 一步上涨提供动力支撑,尤其看好中小盘表现。 ...
高盛:中国股市仍有上涨空间
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-22 04:36
高盛:中国股市仍有上涨空间 那么,高盛为何如此看好呢? 自4月8日启动本轮反弹行情以来,沪指累计涨幅超过21%,深证成指涨超27%,创业板指涨超43%。此 外,沪深300指数涨幅超过19%,中证500、中证1000指数分别上涨26.8%、31.96%。 从Wind板块指数表现来看,4月8日至8月21日,CPO指数走势最为强劲,其间涨幅超过123%,光芯片指 数涨幅也接近100%,CRO、液冷服务器、稀土等指数涨幅均超过70%,创新药、脑机接口、军工信息 化指数涨幅超过60%,人形机器人、芯片、AI算力、AI应用、AI手机等指数涨幅均超过40%。 高盛最新研报指出,中国股市当前仍有大量"存量资金"尚未入市,为市场进一步上涨提供动力支撑,尤 其看好中小盘表现。 8月21日,据华尔街见闻消息,高盛在研报中称,目前仅有22%的家庭金融资产配置在基金和股票上, 潜在资金流入规模超过10万亿元。高盛称,这一趋势预示着中国股市尤其是中小盘股仍具备显著上涨空 间,中证1000和中证500等中小盘指数值得重点关注。受益于更高的散户持股比例、更均衡的行业配置 以及对高科技制造业的更大敞口。 高盛指出,目前已有迹象表明这种资金转移 ...