AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街正为美联储9月降息做准备。当被问及在下个月可能降息之前，他在"所有资产类别"中"最喜欢的 交易"是什么时，高盛全球银行和市场首席战略官给出了他的答案。 乔希·希夫林（Josh Schiffrin）表示，在几乎确定会降息的背景下，五年期美债仍是他"最喜欢的交易"。 他在上周五的高盛《市场》播客节目中指出，五年期国债收益率处于3%至4%区间尤其具有吸引力，尤 其是在经济不确定性加剧的环境下。 "我认为，五年期美债估值在3%到3.25%-4%之间是有吸引力的，"他说，"它们也具备在风险市场走弱时 提供保护的良好特征。" 截至周二欧盘，五年期美债收益率为3.85%，较年初的4.38%大幅下降，反映了市场对美联储宽松政策 的预期。希夫林认为，短期国债将在经济数据转弱和美联储即将行动之际，成为市场的避风港。 希夫林明确表示，他预计美联储将在下月放松货币政策，疲软的就业数据是关键原因。美国7月仅新增 7.3万个就业岗位，远低于10.6万的预期，显示劳动力市场正在降温。 "我觉得9月降25个基点的可能性非常高，"他说， "不降息的可能性甚至比降50个基点更低。" ...

"A股的盈利能力正在改善，货币政策维持宽松，目前估值或仍未达过热水准。" A股气势如虹，在上周突破3700点大关后节节攀升，8月16日收盘报3728.03点，涨0.82%，年内涨幅接近15%。 据第一财经了解，全球对冲基金在上周快速买入中国资产，是过去七周看到的最快加仓速度。高盛表示，8月以来中国市场是对冲基金在全球净买入最多 的市场。美国银行（BOA）全球基金经理调研显示，机构对中国经济增长预期的情绪上升至11%，（7月时仅为2%），达到自2025年3月以来的最高水 平。 接受记者采访的各大华尔街买方、卖方机构人士普遍表示，近阶段美股大涨缘于超预期的盈利（二季度美股业绩增速11%，高于一致预期4%），而A股则 受益于低利率、充裕的流动性。"若以A股盈利修正广度计算，该指标仍然处于负值，但相较于一季报已有明显回暖，反映A股企业的盈利修复仍在稳步进 行。截至7月底，沪深300指数的动态市盈率仅略高于过去10年的平均水平；尤其考虑到A股的盈利能力正在改善，货币政策维持宽松，目前估值或仍未达 过热水准。"美国资管巨头联博基金市场策略负责人李长风对记者称。 年初以来主要全球股指表现。来源：FactSet，摩根士丹利 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛研究部发布报告称，英国央行降息的速度和幅度可能超出市场预期。 由于有迹象表明通胀正在下降，英国央行上周将利率下调了25个基点至4%。但英国央行货币政策委员 会(MPC)的投票结果令市场感到意外，且该委员会强调总体通胀风险，这些信息被市场解读为利率下调 速度可能低于此前预期。 尽管英国央行发出鹰派信号，但高盛研究部仍维持其预测，即英国央行将在11月再次降息，12月暂停降 息，并在2026年初(2月、3月和4月)连续三次降息。高盛研究部对通胀将放缓的预测也支持了这一观 点。 高盛预计英国通胀将放缓 部分原因是有迹象表明就业市场正在走弱。例如，就业指标加权平均值表明就业正在萎缩。职位空缺与 失业比率的下降也表明了类似的情况。 Jari Stehn在另一份报告中表示："劳动力市场疲软加剧与我们的估计一致，即目前的经济运行水平远低 于潜在水平。" 与此同时，私营部门常规工资增速已从1月份的5.9%降至6月份的4.8%。高盛研究部预计，到今年年 底，私营部门的工资增速将进一步放缓至3.5%。 高盛研究经济学家Jari Stehn和James Moberly表示："如果数据出现意外上扬的情况，11月 ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs bought $600M worth of $ETHA shares in Q2 2025.WALL STREET IS BUYING $ETH. https://t.co/kBGqG4qTn6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in foreign investment in the Chinese stock market, driven primarily by hedge funds, indicating a positive outlook for the market despite conservative positioning by overseas investors [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital is aggressively buying Chinese stocks, with hedge funds purchasing at the fastest rate since June, driven by a 9:1 ratio of long positions to short covering [2]. - Hedge funds have an overweight position in the Chinese market relative to the MSCI World Index by 4.9%, with Chinese stocks comprising 5.8% of total positions and 7.3% of net positions [2]. - The net buying activity is split between single stocks and macro strategy products, accounting for 58% and 42% of total net buying, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Factors - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index have reached near four-year highs and year-to-date peaks, respectively, following a prolonged consolidation period [3]. - Factors contributing to this upward trend include easing tariff uncertainties, better-than-expected second-quarter economic data, ongoing "anti-involution" policies, a recovering Hong Kong IPO market, and strong capital inflows [3]. - Despite increased interest from overseas investors, their allocation remains conservative, suggesting a potential for further market gains [3]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - Morgan Stanley notes that foreign holdings in China are still underweight, which could further support market growth [4]. - Allianz anticipates a dual-driven growth in the Chinese market from dividend assets and technology [4]. - The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.41, close to its five-year average of 10.76, which is significantly lower than the MSCI Index's 22.05 and the emerging markets index's 14.83, making it an attractive option for international investors [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in the United States, focusing on the implications of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, labor market dynamics, and the impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth vs. Policy Dynamics** - The central question is whether the US economy will deteriorate or if Fed policy easing can mitigate trade war impacts. There is a risk-reward opportunity in US front-end longs ahead of the September FOMC meeting [1][5][10]. 2. **Labor Market Weakness** - Recent payroll data revisions indicate a significant drop in job growth, aligning with broader economic weakness. The unemployment rate's slow rise may trigger recession fears, particularly if upcoming job reports show further weakness [5][21]. 3. **Countdown to Fed Easing** - Markets have adjusted expectations for Fed easing, with a September cut likely. The market is pricing in more than two cuts for the year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' forecast. Job market weakness could lead to larger cuts being priced in [10][21]. 4. **US Dollar Trends** - The USD is experiencing a weakening trend, influenced by a less exceptional US economy and challenges in attracting capital flows. A dovish Fed shift could further impact the dollar, particularly against Asian currencies like the Yen and Yuan [14][15]. 5. **Tariff Impact on Inflation** - The effects of tariffs are becoming more apparent, with pressures on real disposable income growth expected to continue. Businesses may respond by cutting costs or raising prices, which could test market resilience [16][17]. 6. **Recession Fears and Equity Pricing** - The market is currently climbing a "wall of worry," but there are risks if recession fears materialize. A rise in unemployment alongside inflation could challenge equity markets, especially given current pricing levels [21][22]. 7. **AI and Tech Sector Resilience** - The tech sector, particularly driven by AI investments, has shown resilience, contributing to GDP growth. However, there are concerns that this may mask underlying weaknesses in other areas of the economy [23][24]. 8. **European Economic Outlook** - Europe is experiencing a favorable moment with improved fiscal policies, leading to stronger growth forecasts. However, long-term sustainability remains uncertain due to regulatory burdens and under-investment in high-growth sectors [26][27]. 9. **Emerging Markets (EM) Performance** - The shift towards Fed cuts has created a supportive backdrop for EM assets, with strong performance in local equity and fixed income indices. However, risks remain, particularly regarding domestic demand in China [31][32]. Additional Important Insights - The market's current optimism may be vulnerable to negative news that challenges the willingness to overlook short-term weaknesses. The potential for a weaker USD and steeper yield curves remains, influenced by recession risks and Fed policy [10][31]. - The construction of data centers is expected to surpass general office construction, indicating a shift in investment priorities within the tech sector [28][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between macroeconomic factors, labor market conditions, and sector-specific dynamics.

Group 1 - Hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since the end of June, driven by long positions and some short covering, with a ratio of 1.9 to 1 [1] - Individual stocks and macro products, based on trends in inflation, GDP, geopolitical issues, and fiscal policy, accounted for 58% and 42% of total nominal net purchases, respectively [1] - China is the market with the highest net purchases on Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform as of August [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform is currently overweight on China relative to the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by +4.9%, ranking in the 41st percentile compared to last year and the 16th percentile compared to five years ago [1] - Chinese stocks represent 5.8% of total exposure and 7.3% of net exposure on Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform, ranking in the 94th and 45th percentiles respectively compared to last year, and the 48th and 21st percentiles compared to five years ago [1] Group 3 - Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets, with cumulative trading amount reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing last year's total [1] - The top ten net purchases of Chinese stocks by Korean investors are concentrated in leading companies in the fields of new energy vehicles, internet, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors [2] Group 4 - The average return of Chinese stock funds issued in South Korea from January to July is approximately 10.3%, driven by steady economic development in China [2] - In July alone, about 402.1 billion Korean won (approximately 2.08 billion RMB) of net inflow was recorded in Chinese stock funds [2] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 points, indicating an 11% upside potential from last Friday's closing price, supported by improved trade prospects and market liquidity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high trading volume and volatility, with significant investor activity and potential shifts in capital flow towards equities, indicating a critical juncture for market performance [1][3][4] Market Performance - On August 18, A-share trading volume exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 500 billion yuan, second only to the peak levels seen in late September of the previous year [1] - On August 19, the A-share indices initially rose but later experienced fluctuations, with over 3,200 stocks adjusting downwards before recovering by midday [2] Investor Behavior - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since June, with a buy-to-cover ratio of 1.9 to 1, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3] - There is a noticeable increase in investor inquiries shifting from conservative strategies to more neutral or equity-focused approaches, suggesting a rising risk appetite [3] Capital Flow - There is potential for approximately 5 to 7 trillion yuan of household deposits to flow into the stock market, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [4] - Signs of liquidity moving towards capital markets include increased non-bank deposits and the release of excess savings, positively impacting banks' interest margins and wealth management businesses [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 高盛经济学家最新发出警告，称美国就业市场的放缓还未结束，且情况可能会变得更糟。 高盛团队还指出了对就业构成压力的结构性转变。移民数量急剧下降，这意味着经济每月需要的新增就 业岗位减少，才能维持充分就业。更严格的移民政策也意味着移民工人不太可能工作或被纳入官方数 据。 但这次的放缓似乎比移民问题更为严重。像医疗保健和教育这样的行业，此前曾通过"追赶式招聘"来弥 补与疫情相关的用工不足，但现在已不再出现显著增长。这导致了就业创造的普遍疲软。高盛分析师指 出，其他行业，包括科技、制造和零售，未来几个月也可能面临劳动力方面的逆风。 即使是温和的进一步疲软，也可能产生巨大的后果。分析师补充说，在劳动力市场已处于经济学家所认 为的最大就业边缘的情况下，一个低流动性的环境可能会使失业工人和应届毕业生更难进入（劳动力市 场）。这种动态有使部分劳动力"被拒之门外"的风险，即使失业率没有飙升。 此外，未来几个月的一些特殊因素可能会进一步对就业构成压力，包括联邦储备系统员工的削减、部分 移民临时保护身份的到期，以及更严格的移民执法。 美联储主席鲍威尔定于本周晚些时候在年度杰 ...

中国市场继续看到外资的大力买入。据高盛集团Prime Brokerage数据显示，全球对冲基金 正以6月底以 来的最快速度买入中国股票。 但高盛也指出，尽管海外投资者对中国股票的兴趣明显增加，但其配置水平仍处于保守区间，而这一配 置缺口将持续支持中国市场的后续上涨。 与此同时，摩根士丹利也认为外资持仓目前仍低配中国，有望进一步支撑中国市场的上涨。安联则指出 未来中国市场有望实现红利资产与科技成长的双轮驱动。 技术上看，外资主要买入的iShares中国大盘股ETF（FXI）目前市盈率为11.41倍，徘徊在5年均值10.76 的附近。这与摩根士丹利资本国际指数的市盈率（22.05）及新兴市场指数的市盈率（14.83）相比仍较 低，这组对比成为国际投资者买入的重要原因之一。 其中，单只股票和宏观策略产品均录得净买入，分别占到净买入总额的58%和42%。这也凸显出全球投 资机构对中国市场的整体乐观看法。 看涨声 高盛此前在一份研报中表示，在6至7月较长的盘整后，MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数分别攀升至近4年 高点和年内新高。而此轮上涨存在多重因素，包括关税不确定性缓和、第二季度经济数据超出预 期、"反内卷"政策继续 ...