Commodities strategists at Wall Street's top investment banks expect 2026 and 2027 to be tough years for the oil industry. And that's after a nearly 20% decline in oil prices this year. Under a base case set by JPMorgan's commodities team led by Natasha Kaneva, Brent crude oil (BZ=F) — the international benchmark price — will fall to $58 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil (CL=F), the US benchmark, trading $4 below this level. In 2027, the firm sees prices falling by another $1 per ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are showing a significant shift in attitude towards Chinese technology stocks, with major investment banks like UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan expressing bullish views on the sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS has set a target for the Hang Seng Tech Index at 7100 points for the end of 2026, representing a nearly 27% increase from the closing price of 5599 points on November 28 [3]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its target for the CSI 300 Index to 4840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable growth outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth [4]. - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," suggesting a higher likelihood of significant gains in the coming year, particularly driven by AI adoption and consumption stimulus [4]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflow - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [5]. - The technology sector has become a focal point for foreign investment, with foreign holdings in the electronics sector increasing, reaching a market value of 391.5 billion yuan by September 30, 2025 [5]. - Notable increases in foreign investment have also been observed in the new energy sector, with holdings in CATL rising to 265.66 billion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Foreign investors are focusing on structural allocations in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors, AI applications, and communication equipment [5][6]. - The trend of foreign limited partners (LPs) returning to the Chinese primary market is evident, with significant investments being made in the hard technology sector, especially in AI [6][7]. - AI has emerged as a core investment focus, with various funds targeting early-stage AI projects and related sectors, indicating a long-term strategic shift rather than short-term speculation [7][8]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Experts believe that the trend of increasing foreign allocation to Chinese technology stocks is likely to continue, driven by ongoing economic recovery and innovation momentum in China [8]. - The focus on AI applications, semiconductors, and electronic components is expected to attract further foreign investment, as China develops its autonomous computing ecosystem [8].

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JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have realigned their interest rate outlooks, now forecasting that the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point cut after its Dec. 9-10 meeting.JP Morgan Reverses On Earlier Stance On Rate CutsJP Morgan, reversing its earlier prediction of a pause until January, cited recent comments from central bank officials as the primary driver for the shift.“We now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks,” wrote chief U. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex indices reaching historical highs due to factors such as corporate earnings recovery, favorable fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlooks [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while the Sensex index increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points, marking a significant rebound [5]. - The market is expected to see nearly 7% economic growth in Q3 of this year, with an overall growth forecast of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Key drivers for the stock market rebound include early signs of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5][6]. - The Nifty index's 12-month forward P/E ratio is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 a year ago, indicating a narrowing gap between corporate earnings and stock valuations [6]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign investment positions, and defensive valuations [7][9]. - The report highlights that the Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Nifty 50 index will rise by 14% to 29,000 points by the end of 2026, with a focus on sectors related to domestic themes such as finance, consumer goods, and defense [9]. - JPMorgan also forecasts the Nifty 50 index could reach 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and improved domestic demand [10][11].

来源：efinancialcareers 来源：瑞恩资本RyanbenCapital "我曾家财万贯，也经历过三度破产。"亚历山大坦言，"账户里曾有过300万美元，也有过数次透支300 美元的窘境。" 他补充道，年长后应对破产愈发艰难："年少时觉得一切都可笑，年过五十后却不易释怀。" 亚历山大表示，破产经历让人学会谦卑，如今他自称"节俭到极致"："所有物品都购自慈善商店，除内 衣袜外均来自二手店。我学会了在低氧环境中生存。" 他的新生活中有常撞电线杆的傻狗Mike为伴，还通过Substack专栏记述自己如何失去工作、财富、及曾 经与妻儿共筑的家庭。这一切的根源是毒品。 亚历山大估算自己数年间在可卡因上耗费50万美元："当时每日吸食10克，每15分钟就要躲进卫生间， 连续一周无法入眠。 "毒瘾始于他在伦敦高盛任职期间，近不惑之年时已严重到毒贩拒绝交易。于是他转而酗酒，"酗酒是个 缓慢侵蚀的过程"，十年后试图戒酒时却已无法自拔："尝试正常饮酒48小时内就会再度狂饮威士忌。 2013年离开高盛时，亚历山大在高盛的纽约、香港、东京、伦敦等地的分行工作过。 "我对高盛毫无怨言，"他说道，"他们试图拯救我不下80次，最终 ...

周四（11月27日）金价小幅回落，自前一交易日触及近两周高位后略作整理。投资者正密切评估美国12月降息的 可能性，随着联储官员表态转鸽，市场对降息押注迅速升温，进一步强化了黄金在低利率环境下的支撑。 美市盘中，现货金下跌0.1%，交投于4158美元一线。 瑞士宝盛（Julius Baer）分析师 Carsten Menke 表示："我们仍预计金价自10月回调以来的盘整将继续，因为那轮调 整的影响尚未完全消化。" 自10月20日触及4381.21美元的纪录高位以来，黄金已回落约5%，但整体仍稳站在4000美元关键水平之上。 Menke补充说："我们认为支撑金价的因素基本未变，包括美国经济增速放缓带来更低利率和疲软美元、持续的避 险需求、以及强劲的央行购金。" 美联储在降息时间与幅度上释放出相互矛盾的信号，推动对隔夜利率相关掉期期权及衍生品的对冲需求上升。 被视为接替鲍威尔的热门人选、并与美国总统特朗普立场一致的哈塞特也公开支持降息。 与此同时，旧金山联储主席戴利与美联储理事沃勒本周的讲话，亦强化了降息预期。 根据 CME FedWatch 数据，交易员目前押注美联储下月降息的概率已升至85%，而在一周前仅为30 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices may drop to over $30 per barrel by 2027 due to severe market oversupply issues [1] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen by 14% this year, stabilizing at $62.59 per barrel as of November 24 [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring potential peace negotiations in Ukraine, which could lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia and further downward pressure on energy prices [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline from current levels, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaging $53 per barrel in 2026 [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a daily oversupply of 2 million barrels in 2026, indicating a significant market imbalance [2] - The firm suggests that 2026 will mark the end of the current large-scale oil supply shock affecting the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market is experiencing mixed results, with COMEX gold futures declining by 0.3% and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.41, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and varying industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in gold prices indicates a weakening trust in the U.S. government and institutions [1]. - Martin Siegert from Baden-Württemberg Bank anticipates that the current gold trend will continue, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs as a key supporting factor [1]. - The World Gold Council reported a 6% increase in global gold ETF assets from $472 billion in September to $503 billion in October, with a significant monthly inflow of $82 billion in October, surpassing the average monthly inflow of $71 billion for the year [2]. Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has identified gold as the most recommended commodity to go long on, with expectations that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by late next year, driven by central bank purchases and declining interest rates [2].

Core Insights - A turbulent November has reset market positions and sentiment, providing a clearer path for U.S. stocks entering December [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Prior to November, there was an overly optimistic sentiment in the market, with even long-term bears turning bullish, which led to significant market adjustments [2] - The adjustment was reflected in the internal market structure, with Goldman Sachs' unprofitable tech stock index dropping approximately 23% from peak to trough, and the most shorted stock basket declining about 29% [2] - The excessive bullish sentiment towards major tech stocks has cooled, with the options market showing a return to neutral positioning [6] Group 2: Market Breadth and Volatility - Market breadth has significantly improved, with the S&P 500's advancing/declining stock ratio moving from -150 to +150, indicating broader participation in market gains [8] - The Volatility Panic Index has decreased from its monthly high to 5, slightly above its three-year average of 4.6, signaling a cooling of panic sentiment [11] Group 3: Systematic Fund Flows and Investment Themes - Systematic funds have completed their de-risking process, with an estimated $16 billion sold in the S&P 500 over the past month, transitioning to a mild buying scenario of approximately $4.7 billion for the next month [13] - The investment theme around artificial intelligence (AI) is expanding, with companies in traditional sectors beginning to implement AI tools that enhance cost reduction and profit improvement [15] - Goldman Sachs has introduced a new stock basket index to capture the theme of "using AI rather than selling AI," reflecting a shift from narrative to measurable productivity [15]