Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S. is likely to end within two weeks, which is crucial for the data-driven decision-making of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that the shutdown, which is approaching the record duration of 35 days from 2018-2019, is nearing its end, with a likely resolution around the second week of November [2][3]. - The prolonged shutdown is attributed to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, such as utilizing unspent funds from the previous year, but this temporary relief is diminishing [2]. - Key pressure points, including missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel, are increasing the urgency for Congress to reach a compromise [2]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - The duration of the shutdown is seen as a critical variable influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][4]. - If the government reopens by mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take additional days to release delayed employment reports, which could affect the timing of key economic data releases [4]. - Citigroup analysts express growing confidence that the government will reopen soon, allowing the Fed to receive multiple employment reports before its December meeting, potentially supporting a 25 basis point rate cut [4]. Group 3: Economic Consequences of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, leading to a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [5]. - The report suggests that the economic impact of the shutdown is likely to be temporary, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return to work [5].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月3日消息，鲍威尔称12月降息并非定局，高盛仍看好美元下行】上周10月货币政策会议后，美联 储主席鲍威尔称，12月下次会议降息"并非板上钉钉"，而投资者原本预计这几乎已成定局。 高盛策略 师在报告中表示，仍认为美联储降息动机与美元进一步下行前提一致，即美国将不会像以前那样表现出 色。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape, driven by a surge in renewable energy projects, particularly solar and battery storage, while also noting a substantial increase in planned natural gas and storage projects for the long term [3][6][7]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - Solar and battery storage projects are expected to dominate the new capacity additions in the short term, with solar projects alone accounting for 94% and 99% of the new capacity forecasted by Goldman Sachs for the next two years [1][6]. - In the first nine months of the year, over 90% of the 32 GW of new capacity added was from solar and battery storage [4]. - The current planning for solar projects has reached a historical high of 122 GW, while natural gas and storage projects have seen increases of 127% and 60%, respectively, reaching 40 GW and 67 GW [3][5]. Group 2: Project Delays and Challenges - Despite strong growth, the article emphasizes that the high rate of project delays remains a significant challenge, with 36.5% of planned solar projects and 38.6% of planned wind projects facing delays of over six months [5]. - In contrast, natural gas projects have a much lower delay rate of 11.2%, indicating better execution efficiency [5]. Group 3: Long-term Planning and Labor Shortages - Looking ahead, there is a clear shift in project timelines, with most renewable energy projects expected to come online between 2026 and 2027, while a significant number of natural gas projects are planned for 2028 to 2030 [6][7]. - Labor shortages are identified as a critical constraint on achieving energy growth targets, with an estimated need for over 500,000 new jobs in the electricity and grid sectors by 2030 [8][10]. - The aging workforce is a concern, as 30% of electricians are nearing retirement, and training skilled workers takes 3-5 years [9].

Core Insights - The "Behind-the-Meter" (BTM) power supply solutions are emerging as a key strategy to address the electricity consumption challenges posed by AI technologies [3][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, the BTM market could reach a capacity of 20-25 gigawatts (GW) to meet the increasing power demands of data centers [3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - AI's exponential growth is transforming data centers into significant power consumers, with a projected need for an additional 82 GW of electricity capacity in the U.S. alone by 2030 [5] - The aging electrical grid infrastructure is unable to keep pace with this demand, with new high-voltage transmission line construction dropping from an average of 1,700 miles per year (2010-2014) to just 350 miles per year (2020-2023) [6] - The median time for a project to go from application to commercial operation has reached nearly 5 years, exacerbating the urgency for alternative power solutions [7] Group 2: BTM Solutions - BTM solutions provide a crucial alternative for data centers, offering reliable, uninterrupted power independent of grid reliability issues [9] - It is estimated that from 2024 to 2030, the incremental electricity demand from data centers will total approximately 730 terawatt-hours (TWh), with BTM solutions expected to satisfy one-quarter to one-third of this demand [9] Group 3: Fuel Cell Technology - Fuel cell technology is projected to capture 25% to 50% of the BTM market, translating to an installed capacity of 8-20 GW [4][10] - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are highlighted for their structural advantages over traditional gas turbines, including delivery time, noise, emissions, and flexibility [10][12] - The optimistic outlook for fuel cells in the data center market is supported by their high efficiency, fuel flexibility, and readiness for commercialization [12]

2 November 2025 | 8:36PM HKT Economics Research China: Trade Dashboard 2025Q3: Trade volume growth accelerated Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Exports: Chinese export growth accelerated in Q3, registering ...

（原标题：64%公司盈利爆表，市场却冷眼相待! 高盛：投资者转向AI与宏观不确定性） 智通财经APP获悉，高盛策略师大卫·科斯汀在10月31日发布的报告中指出，尽管第三季度财报季呈现 出近年来最强劲的利好表现，投资者对此却反应冷淡。 截至目前，约三分之二的标普500指数成分股公司已公布业绩，其中64%的公司盈利超出市场预期至少 一个标准差。科斯汀指出，这一比例"在新冠疫情重启期之外是前所未有的"。 这些超预期表现主要得益于收入增长与利润率稳定：总销售额同比增长6%，利润率维持在11.8%左右。 然而，市场对利好消息的反应明显不足——盈利超出预期的公司，在财报发布次日相对指数的中位数超 额收益仅为0.3个百分点，远低于历史平均水平。 报告分析称，投资者普遍认为本季度业绩对未来盈利前景的参考意义较低，并指出贸易政策波动、银行 贷款状况及其他宏观因素的不确定性是主要影响原因。 盈利增长放缓，但业绩指引依然乐观 信贷状况与市场前景 此外，部分区域性银行的贷款损失引发了对非银行金融机构贷款业务的关注。高盛分析师认为，这些问 题属于"个别现象"，而非系统性风险。这类贷款占美国商业银行贷款总额的13%，其中近一半尚未提 取 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. energy sector is undergoing significant transformation driven by AI-induced electricity demand, with a surge in renewable energy projects in the short term and remarkable growth in natural gas and storage planning in the long term, constrained by labor shortages [1][4] Group 1: Current Energy Capacity Expansion - As of September 2025, the U.S. is expected to add approximately 32 GW of new power generation capacity, primarily from 19 GW of solar and 11 GW of battery storage, achieving 54% of Goldman Sachs' annual forecast [1][2] - Over 90% of the new capacity added in the first nine months of the year comes from solar and battery storage, indicating strong growth momentum [2] - However, project delays are a significant challenge, with 36.5% of planned solar projects and 38.6% of planned wind projects facing delays of over six months, compared to only 11.2% for natural gas projects [2] Group 2: Long-term Planning Trends - Future electricity project timelines show a clear shift, with most renewable energy projects expected to come online between 2026 and 2027, while a sharp decline in renewable project reserves is anticipated post-2028 [3] - Approximately 65% of planned natural gas projects are expected to be operational between 2028 and 2030, with 2028 alone projected to account for 103% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for new natural gas capacity that year [3] - Storage project planning capacity has also reached 67 GW, growing in parallel with natural gas projects [3] Group 3: Labor Shortages as a Key Constraint - Labor shortages are identified as a critical constraint to achieving electricity growth targets, with over 500,000 additional jobs needed in the electricity and grid sectors by 2030 [4] - The aging workforce is a concern, with 30% of electricians nearing retirement, and it takes 3-5 years to train a skilled technician [4] - Worker shortages are reported as the second-largest reason for project delays, following government approval delays, potentially impacting project execution and increasing labor costs [4]

Group 1 - The average annual salary for securities industry professionals in New York City in 2024 is $505,630, an increase of 7.3% from the previous year, marking the second-highest level since 2021. Bonuses are expected to reach a historical high in 2025 [2][4] - Total bonuses in the securities industry are projected to reach $47.5 billion in 2024, with an average of $244,700 per employee, setting a new record [4] - Profits for firms joining the New York Stock Exchange are expected to continue growing, with a projected 31% year-on-year increase in profits for the first half of 2025, reaching $30.4 billion [4] Group 2 - Trading revenues increased by 73% due to rising stock prices, contributing to the overall profit growth of major banks, which reported a combined net profit increase of 19% for the third quarter of 2025 [4][5] - Morgan Stanley's net profit grew by 45% to $4.61 billion, while Bank of America saw a 23% increase. Other major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs also reported profit growth [5] - The securities industry is expected to see a 10% increase in labor costs in the first half of 2025, driven by anticipated bonus increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that consumer weakness has spread from low-income groups to the middle class, particularly affecting consumers aged 25-35, with many executives reporting the worst consumer confidence in decades [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Market Performance - Goldman Sachs' consumer goods expert Scott Feiler notes a significant shift in market discussions, with more companies reporting a slowdown in consumption that now includes middle-income groups [3]. - The non-essential consumer goods sector has underperformed the market by 500 basis points over the past two weeks, indicating a broader market concern [3][9]. - Kraft Heinz CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera stated that the company is facing one of the worst consumer confidence levels in decades, leading to a downward revision of annual sales guidance by 3% to 3.5% [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Specific Companies - Chipotle's stock plummeted by 17%, citing reduced spending frequency among lower and middle-income customers due to pressures like unemployment and stagnant wage growth [5]. - CAVA and home goods retailer SG also saw significant stock declines of 11% and 9.6%, respectively, reflecting the broader trend of reduced consumer spending [5]. - O'Reilly Automotive reported moderate pressure on DIY transactions, indicating a reaction from consumers to rising prices [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The consumer discretionary sector has faced severe sell-offs, with non-essential goods underperforming the market by 400 basis points this week alone [8][9]. - Despite the overall consumer spending slowdown, high-end market segments remain resilient, with Visa reporting strong performance across various spending categories [9]. - Starbucks noted positive growth in transaction volume, particularly in its university and campus business, indicating some segments of the market are still thriving [9].

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].