Hartnett建议， "Stay BIG, sell rips" ，即做多债券（Bonds）、国际股票（International Stocks）和黄金（Gold）。投资者应该在美股市场反弹时逢高卖 出，而不是盲目追涨。 Hartnett：市场正处于历史性转折点 (图片由豆包AI生成 提示词 风暴 黄金) 市场正从"美国例外论"转向"美国否定"，美银全球策略师Michael Hartnett建议投资者 逢高卖出美股，逢低买入国际股票与黄金。 Hartnett在其24日发布的研报中表示，近期资金流向显示， 美国股票录得8亿美元流出，而黄金流入33亿美元， 表明市场对黄金的偏好正在增加。 随着全球经济的再平衡，资金从美国市场流向其他地区，尤其是新兴市场和欧洲， 这种资金流动趋势对黄金价格形成支撑。 Hartnett表示，年初至今，金融资产表现显示出明确趋势： 黄金领涨(+26.2%)，债券表现良好(政府债券+5.6%，投资级债券+3.9%)，而美股(-3.3%)和美元 (-8.5%)显著下跌。 近期资金流向显示， 所有地区股票市场均录得流入 (欧洲34亿美元，新兴市场10亿美元，日本10亿美元)， 唯独美国股票 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or US equities Core Insights - Recent declines in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar have raised concerns about foreign investor selling, with an estimated $60 billion in US stocks sold since March 2025 [2][3] - Foreign investors held a record 18% ($17 trillion) of US equities at the start of 2025, indicating a significant potential for further selling [4][5] - Historical data shows that previous episodes of foreign selling have lasted an average of 11 months and accounted for approximately 0.6% of US equity market cap, translating to about $300 billion today [2][15] Summary by Sections Foreign Investor Activity - High-frequency fund flow data indicates that European investors have primarily driven the recent selling of US equities, while other regions have continued to buy [11][21] - The recent episode of foreign selling is shorter and shallower compared to historical averages, with only $63 billion sold over the last two months [15][21] Market Performance - Since early April 2025, the S&P 500 has declined by 4%, the trade-weighted US dollar has fallen by 3%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has increased by 18 basis points [3][9] - In contrast to past episodes of foreign selling, where US stock prices generally continued to rise, the current situation has seen a decline in both stock prices and the dollar [16][21] Historical Context - The report highlights that in previous instances of foreign selling, the S&P 500 rose in 7 out of 10 episodes, while the dollar typically appreciated by an average of 5% [16][21] - The most recent significant foreign selling occurred from mid-2023 to early 2024, totaling $260 billion, which contrasts with the current estimated selling of $63 billion [15][21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, with 70% of this growth driven by exports and export-related manufacturing investment [7]. - For 2025, the report anticipates a decline in real GDP growth to 4.0%, influenced by elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods, which are expected to impose a 2.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [10][20]. - The report expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth in China due to challenges related to demographics, debt, and de-risking, although there are moderate upside risks from faster AI adoption [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for China's GDP growth, projecting 5.0% for 2024 and 4.0% for 2025, with a further decline to 3.5% in 2026 [15]. - It notes that domestic demand is expected to contribute positively, with consumption growth projected at 5.3% in 2025 [11]. Tariff Impact - The report indicates that the effective US tariff rate on China has reached 107%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic growth [20]. - It emphasizes that the ongoing policy easing in China may not fully offset the negative impacts of these tariffs [12]. Policy Measures - The report outlines expected policy measures, including further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, to support economic growth amid external pressures [31]. - It anticipates an increase in the augmented fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP in 2025, up from 10.4% in 2024 [33]. Sectoral Insights - The report discusses the property sector, noting that construction activity has sharply contracted compared to previous peaks, raising questions about the sustainability of any recovery [52][56]. - It also highlights that high-tech manufacturing has been a stable growth driver over the past decade, with expectations that these sectors will continue to outperform broader manufacturing [80][84].

据证券时报报道，美国银行的首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett建议，在不确定性彻底结束前，投资者应该趁美股、美元反弹时卖出。 Hartnett和他的团队在报告中指出，"我们（上半年）仍然会在债券、黄金下跌时买入，在标准普尔指数/美元上涨时卖出。"Hartnett补充说，市场的"痛苦交 易"表明未来还会有更多的下行空间。 报告指出，美元正处于长期贬值趋势中，而资金撤离美国资产的趋势还将延续。Moneyfarm首席投资官Richard Flax表示："目前大家普遍认为，这种关税水 平在长期来看是不可持续的，但要真正实现调整可能还需要一段时间，问题在于这些关税最终会稳定在哪个水平。" 图片来源：视觉中国（资料图） 每经编辑 毕陆名 本周，美股三大指数震荡反弹，道指单周上涨2.48%，标普500指数涨超4.5%，纳指涨幅达到6.73%。不过，尽管美股出现反弹，但部分华尔街机构依然对后 市不太看好。 美国银行称，最近的股市反弹将是短暂的，投资者应该趁美股、美元反弹时卖出。 另外，高盛表示，自3月初以来，外国投资者已悄然从美国股票市场撤出了630亿美元资金，高盛集团表示，其中最大的抛售方来自欧洲。 而摩根大通周 ...

昨日，美国股市迎来了过去一年中第五大净买入日（+2.2个标准差），主要由宏观产品的空头回补和个 股的多头买入所带动。 这与近期的资金流向趋势一致，也直接反驳了主流财经媒体宣称的"卖出美国"（Sell America）这一地 缘政治趋势，该说法主要依据是美元走弱和美债收益率上升。 然而，正如多数围绕特朗普的口号式"反对言论"一样，这种说法并不完全属实。 事实上，Goldman Sachs Prime团队在今晨发布的一份简短报告中指出，从资金流角度来看，在对冲基金 的持仓中几乎没有"美股转向其他国家股票"（US -> RoW rotation）的迹象，这基于Prime数据分析得 出。 在"解放日"（Liberation Day）前夕大幅降低净敞口后，对冲基金成功应对了4月的市场波动。 截至4月22日，全球基本面多空策略本月以来回报为-1.3%（年初至今-1.8%），本月跑赢市场基准近250 个基点；而系统化多空策略（量化策略代理）回报为-1.1%（年初至今+10.1%）。 从地区来看，4月以来基本面多空策略的表现出现明显分化：欧洲方向的基金取得强劲收益，而中国方 向的基金则出现大幅亏损。 经历连续8周的净卖出后， ...

Summary:⚈ Goldman Sachs insider made first direct stock buy in 17 years.⚈ $2 million purchase signals strong confidence amid market uncertainty.⚈ GS stock rallied 7.8% in a week, narrowing YTD losses to 4.6%.Corporate insider sales are not a relatively common feature, thanks to many high-ranking employees receiving compensation primarily in the form of equity. However, direct purchases tend to be rarer and, arguably, more noteworthy.John Hess, a Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Director and CEO of Hess Corp (NYSE: ...

国内 1. 高盛：预计美元还会进一步下跌。 2. 摩根大通：美联储降息将给美债带来巨大机遇。 3. 德银下调美国股指年底目标，警告关税潜在影响。 1. 中信证券：充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心。 2. 中信证券：钨矿开采指标收紧，钨价中枢有望上行。 3. 中信建投：当前燃料电池车板块预期较弱，5-6月旺季可能出现销量向上拐点。 4. 华泰证券：互联网金融平台行业估值性价比凸显。 5. 华泰证券：一季度金融股仓位有所下行，把握结构机会。 6. 国金证券：医药板块具备良好的抗风险能力和成长进攻能力。 7. 招商证券：MLF净投放为银行补中期流动性，后续仍可能降准提供长期资金。 金十数据整理：每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-04-25） 国外 ...

德银警告美元将进入漫长下行周期 智通财经APP获悉，在美元在连续两天上涨后恢复下跌之际，外汇交易员仍持有对美元的负面看法。期权数据显示，美元的短暂反弹被视为投机 性美元空头仓位暂时受到挤压，市场对美元的结构性看法仍为负面，市场情绪表明美元预计将进一步走软。在这种背景下，德意志银行与高盛默 契看空美元，均指出美元似乎开启了下行周期。 市场依然整体看空美元 在美元在连续两天上涨后恢复下跌之际，外汇交易员仍持有对美元的负面看法。周四，由于期权市场的情绪显示出进一步的疲软，美元兑所有十 国集团(G10)货币的贸易加权汇率下跌了0.4%。一个月风险逆转指标(衡量市场对下行保护需求的关键指标)正接近5年来最悲观的水平。 在美国总统表示无意罢免美联储主席鲍威尔，并似乎缓和了对中国关税的立场后，截至周三的两天内，美元上涨了1%。尽管如此，澳大利亚国民 银行外汇策略主管Ray Attrill说："本周美元反弹只不过是对美元空头投机头寸的挤出。这不会改变对美元的整体负面看法。" 仓位数据显示，市场在结构性上仍看空美元。根据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据，投机投资者上周将美元兑一篮子10种货币和美元指数的 净看空头寸增加至 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession over the next 12 months, suggesting a cautious investment stance in the current macroeconomic environment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant tariff-induced impact on US growth, with expectations of a slowdown in hard data by mid-to-late summer, following initial signs of weakness in soft data [1][2]. - Despite recent market reassurances from political figures regarding tariffs, the report suggests that markets are underpricing recession risks, which could lead to vulnerabilities if recession signs emerge [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to seek alternative hedges against recession risks, recommending traditional safe havens such as the Yen, Swiss Franc, and gold [3][6]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a sizable tariff-induced hit to US growth, with a notable risk of recession [1]. - It notes that while soft data shows early signs of slowdown, hard data remains solid for now, likely due to front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs [1]. - A full-blown recession could push the S&P 500 to around 4,600 and significantly impact the commercial real estate market [2]. China Economic Outlook - The report discusses China's economic performance, indicating that Q1 GDP growth may reflect frontloading in anticipation of US tariffs, with expectations of a significant drag from higher tariffs going forward [9]. - It predicts that Chinese policymakers will intensify easing measures, but the magnitude may not fully offset the tariff drag, leading to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q2 [9]. Commodity and Market Insights - The report highlights the potential for a 25% tariff on US copper imports by mid-2025, which the market is not currently pricing in [9]. - It suggests that despite reduced attractiveness of bonds as hedges, shorter-maturity USTs and curve steepeners could provide protection in a recession scenario [6].

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