Goldman Sachs is deepening its push into generative AI by building autonomous agents with artificial intelligence startup Anthropic to automate some of the bank's most process-heavy work, reported CNB... ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is collaborating with AI startup Anthropic to develop AI agents aimed at automating various roles within the bank, specifically in trade accounting and client onboarding [1][2] - The development of these agents is in the early stages, with expectations to significantly reduce the time required for these essential functions [2] - CEO David Solomon announced a multi-year plan to reorganize the bank around generative AI, while also aiming to limit headcount growth despite increasing revenues from trading and advisory services [3] Company Developments - Goldman Sachs has embedded engineers from Anthropic to co-develop autonomous agents for specific banking functions [1] - The AI agents are envisioned as digital co-workers for complex and process-intensive roles within the firm [2] - The bank's strategy reflects a broader trend in the investment banking sector, where firms are adapting to advancements in AI technology [3] Market Context - The announcement comes amid significant updates from Anthropic, which have influenced market dynamics, leading to selloffs among software firms and their credit providers [4]

在美股软件股遭遇万亿美元级别的抛售潮后，高盛交易部门观察到市场出现触底信号。该行交易台注意 到，在连续八天的暴跌中，软件ETF的持仓已被大幅清洗，机构投资者开始尝试抄底，这可能标志着本 轮历史性调整接近尾声。 软件股在过去一周暴跌15%，较去年9月高点累计下挫29%。作为市场风向标的IGV软件ETF在其25年历 史中连续两天创下成交量纪录，本周二以来累计成交超过8500万股。高盛交易台活跃度达到8分（满分 10分），机构客户净卖出20亿美元。 尽管抛售仍在继续，但高盛交易部门捕捉到关键转折信号：IGV的流通股份已降至近五年低点，显示卖 盘基本出清。更重要的是，该行衍生品交易台观察到客户开始解除指数对冲头寸，这通常是市场见底的 前兆。机构投资者在周三和周四开始买入IGV，该基金周三流通股份单日增长12%，为2023年以来最大 增幅。 这一交易层面的乐观判断，与高盛策略部门的悲观展望形成鲜明对比，凸显出当前市场对软件行业前景 的分歧。 交易台观察：卖盘枯竭迹象显现 高盛ETF交易台重点关注IGV软件ETF的异常交易活动。该基金本周成为客户获取软件股敞口的主要工 具，ETF交易占整体成交量的37%。截至美东时间上午 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs compares the current software industry to the newspaper industry disrupted by the internet in the early 2000s and the tobacco industry facing regulatory challenges in the late 1990s, indicating a fundamental skepticism about the long-term growth and profitability of the software sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The software sector has seen a significant decline, with a 15% drop in one week and a cumulative retreat of 29% from its September 2025 peak, driven by fears of AI impacting software business models [5] - The forward P/E ratio for the software sector has decreased from approximately 35 times at the end of 2025 to around 20 times, marking the lowest level since 2014 [7] - Despite the apparent return to rational valuation, the underlying assumptions driving these valuations are collapsing, as the market anticipates significant downgrades in future growth and profitability [8][10] Group 2: Earnings Stability and Historical Comparisons - Historical cases, such as the newspaper industry from 2002 to 2009, show that stock prices did not bottom out until earnings expectations stabilized, not merely when valuations appeared cheap [11] - Similar patterns were observed in the tobacco industry during the late 1990s, where stock prices remained under pressure despite significant valuation compression until regulatory uncertainties were resolved [12] - Goldman Sachs concludes that even if short-term earnings reports show resilience, they do not negate the long-term risks posed by AI [13] Group 3: Investment Shifts and Defensive Sectors - There is a noticeable shift in market preference away from "AI risk" towards sectors perceived as more stable, such as industrials, energy, chemicals, transportation, and banking [14][15] - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their exposure to the software sector, while large mutual funds began systematically underweighting software stocks since mid-last year [15] - Certain sub-sectors, such as vertical software and companies with proprietary data and clear industry barriers, may still offer defensive characteristics against AI disruption [16]

当华尔街开始用"报纸行业"来形容软件股时，市场对AI冲击的恐惧，已经进入一个极端阶段。 据追风交易台，高盛分析师Ben Snider及其团队在最新发布的报告中，罕见地将当前的软件行业，与 2000年代初被互联网颠覆的报纸行业、以及90年代末遭遇监管重锤的烟草行业并列讨论，这种类比本身 就足以说明华尔街对"AI冲击软件商业模式"的定价。 高盛认为，当前估值下跌反映的不是短期盈利波动，而是对软件行业长期增长和利润率是否仍然成立的 根本性怀疑。 高盛提醒，当行业被市场认定面临颠覆性风险时，股价见底取决于盈利预期是否稳定，而非估值是否足 够便宜。 从"AI红利"到"AI威胁"：软件股遭遇集体重估 高盛指出，过去一周，软件股成为AI冲击叙事的"风暴中心"，软件板块一周暴跌15%，较2025年9月高 点累计回撤29%，高盛编制的"AI风险敞口篮子"（GS AI at Risk）年初至今跌幅已达12%。 触发市场情绪转向的直接催化剂，包括Anthropic发布Claude协作插件、以及谷歌Genie 3模型的推出。 在投资者看来，这些进展不再只是"提高生产力"，而是开始直接威胁软件公司的定价权、护城河乃至存 在价值。 高盛 ...

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（来源：创业板观察） 自2022年年中以来，动量交易员曾以足以让沃伦·巴菲特感到汗颜的夏普比率统治着市场。然而周三， 这一切几乎遭遇了全线崩盘——他们蒙受了载入史册的损失。 动量交易简单说来就是"买入最近涨得最好的，卖出涨得最差的"。而根据业内的统计，高盛的"高贝 塔"或无约束动量组合(GSPRHIMO)刚刚创下了自2022年以来表现最糟糕的一天，超过了去年1月 Deepseek风暴之后的AI抛售潮。高贝塔股通俗而言就是指那些波动比大盘更剧烈的股票。 如果说，周二市场的跌幅源于软件股因人工智能颠覆风险引发的"投降式"抛售，那么周三的疲软则更集 中于基本面因素与仓位调整，使得大盘指数的变动相对于底层发生的剧烈动荡，显得具有欺骗性的平 稳。 这印证了高盛分析师Lee Coppersmith在上周末文章中的发现，即美股表面平静之下正波涛汹涌。统计显 示，标普500指数成分股平均的1周实际波动率，与整体标普500指数波动率之比在上周四刚刚达到6.88 ——处于2023年以来的第99个百分位。 来源：市场资讯 换句话说，标普500指数成分股的平均波动幅度大约是大盘指数的7倍，这就是为什么近几个交易日部分 个股的异动显得 ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum consensus trading experienced a "collapse-like" reversal on February 5, driven by concentrated long position liquidation and passive selling from leveraged ETFs, leading to a rapid amplification of declines, with a notable absence of retail buying support [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline exhibited a structural characteristic of "index relative restraint, internal market volatility," with selling pressure concentrated in the Nasdaq, technology, and semiconductor sectors, which had previously led the market [1][4] - Approximately 75% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 during the decline, indicating that the pain was concentrated in a few crowded momentum trades rather than a broad market downturn [2] - The momentum index MSZZMOMO fell about 7.7% in a single day, marking an extreme volatility event, primarily driven by long positions [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Selling pressure was heavily focused on previously leading sectors such as AI, national security, and Bitcoin mining stocks, while cyclical, chemical, and banking sectors showed relative strength, indicating a rotation away from high-beta themes [4][5] - The leveraged ETF rebalancing contributed approximately $18 billion in selling pressure, particularly affecting the Nasdaq and technology sectors, with significant impacts on several popular stocks [5] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail buying was notably absent, with net buying intensity at its lowest in the past year, primarily occurring during market rebound periods [6][7] - The lack of retail participation has directly suppressed momentum factors, as the stocks favored by retail investors overlap significantly with those used in momentum strategies [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term technical rebounds may occur, but Morgan Stanley suggests a "sell on the rebound" strategy due to ongoing deleveraging and weak retail demand ahead of the tax season, which could exacerbate future selling pressure [1][10][13] - Historical data indicates that after significant declines in the momentum index, stock performance tends to be negative in the following 1-2 months, with a median decline of approximately 22% [10]

Big hedge funds that trade in stocks had their worst day in almost a year on Wednesday as crowded trades lost value in the tech-driven selloff, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients released after the market closed. ...

富达国际亚洲经济学家刘培乾对《证券日报》记者表示，在政策稳定性与增长动能持续释放支撑下，中国宏观经济前景日 趋平衡且更具韧性，预计国内需求弱复苏与出口维持强劲的"双轨增长"格局仍将延续。 本报记者 吴晓璐 毛艺融 近日，多家外资机构发布2026年中国市场展望。外资机构普遍认为，基于强劲的制造业和出口，以及企业盈利持续改善和 产业升级，中国经济将更具韧性。与此同时，外资投资中国市场的意愿也在持续提升，科技、高端制造、出海产业链是重点布 局领域，其中，电力成为AI投资中确定性最高的投资方向。 中国宏观经济前景日趋平衡且更具韧性 今年1月份，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的《世界经济展望》预测，2026年全球经济增速将达3.3%，比去年10月份的 预测值上调0.2个百分点。IMF同时将2026年中国经济增速预测值上调0.3个百分点。 高盛首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津表示，海外主动型共同基金大约低配中国股票300个基点，每提高1个基点，对应50亿 美元左右的资金。 贝莱德基金权益、量化及多资产首席投资官王晓京对《证券日报》记者表示，从长期趋势看，全球科技主线仍在演进，当 前仍处于AI硬件与软件发展阶段，尚未全面渗透至 ...