Workflow
Goldman Sachs(GS)
icon
Search documents
高盛:美股市场夏季行情即将结束 经济增长担忧加剧
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-26 10:12
格隆汇8月26日|高盛表示,市场"金发姑娘式"的夏季行情即将结束,随着美国经济增长放缓迹象增 多,市场波动性将加剧。资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann表示,9月通常表现疲软,但今 年夏休后的市场将相当艰难,不确定能否维持此前的增长势头。Mueller-Glissmann预计波动率指数 (VIX)将回升,该指数已跌至去年12月以来的最低水平。 ...
大行评级丨高盛:美国零售业下半年展望趋保守 给予塔吉特“中性”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 08:36
来源:格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月26日|根据高盛对美国零售企业Q2财报及管理层会议的分析,行业整体展现出业绩韧性,但 下半年展望趋于谨慎。高盛维持对BJ批发俱乐部、家得宝、劳氏和沃尔玛的"买入"评级,看好其策略与 市场地位;对塔吉特持"中性"。 ...
X @Crypto Rover
Crypto Rover· 2025-08-26 07:18
💥BREAKING:GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS 3 FED RATE CUTS IN 2025.HERE WE GO. 🚀 https://t.co/LXc90JIdoF ...
盾博dbg:高盛认为美联储9月降息步伐将由即将公布的非农数据决定
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 02:33
dbg markets发现高盛的交易员里金・沙阿与科西莫・科达奇-皮萨内利提出,美联储主席鲍威尔未来的降息节奏将会转向非农就业数 据。 高盛基于美联储近十年的政策决策规律表示,如果8月新增非农就业人数低于10万人,9月基本就必定开启降息。 高盛预测8月非农新增或仅为8万人,如果这项数据实现,那么过去三个月非农均值将降至3.5万人,远低于市场此前预估的15万人。 市场普遍认为关税政策引发的不确定性已度过最严峻的阶段,但高盛依旧保持谨慎,它担心数据本身的可靠性。当前非农统计采用的 "出生-死亡模型",该模型的估算偏差已扩大至1.2万人,ADP民间就业数据显示7月医疗行业新增就业2.1万,而官方非农报告却录得4.5 万,真实的就业远比数据更加的复杂。而且部分非法移民就业被误计入 "正规就业",将会导致数据的不准确。 过去一个月美国消费支出环比增长 0.4%、企业投资降幅收窄至 0.2%,美债前端收益率从4.8%缓慢上行至4.95%,但这种趋势极不稳 定。高盛警告,若8月非农显著走弱,美债收益率上行趋势将迅速反转,甚至可能引发美股短期回调。 若非农数据持续走弱,美联储可能会连续降息,若数据反弹,政策则可能回归 正常化 ...
美股集体收跌!芯片巨头警告风险
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-26 00:48
当地时间8月25日,美股三大股指集体收跌。道指收跌349.27点,报45282.47点,跌幅为0.77%;纳指收跌47.24点,报21449.29点,跌幅为0.22%;标普500 指数收跌27.59点,报6439.32点,跌幅为0.43%。 银行股多数下跌,摩根大通跌0.49%,高盛跌0.45%,花旗跌0.31%,摩根士丹利跌0.25%,美国银行涨0.04%,富国银行涨超1%。 中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.11%。热门中概股方面,大全新能源涨逾4%,新濠博亚娱乐涨超3%,网易涨逾2%,涂鸦智能涨超2%,健永 生技涨逾2%。跌幅方面,新蛋跌逾15%,大健云仓跌超9%,盛美半导体跌逾5%,霸王茶姬跌超4%。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的Fed watch工具,交易员目前认为美联储9月份降息的可能性为84%。 英国伦敦股市休市,欧洲其他两大主要股指当天均以下跌报收。法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7843.04点,较前一交易日下跌126.65点,跌幅为1.59%; 德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24273.12点,较前一交易日下跌89.97点,跌幅为0.37%。 来源公开信息及市场数据 (文章来源:国 ...
高盛硅谷AI调研之旅:底层模型拉不开差距,AI竞争转向“应用层”,“推理”带来GPU需求暴增
硬AI· 2025-08-25 16:01
Core Insights - The core insight of the article is that as open-source and closed-source foundational models converge in performance, the competitive focus in the AI industry is shifting from infrastructure to application, emphasizing the importance of integrating AI into specific workflows and leveraging proprietary data for reinforcement learning [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs' research indicates that the performance gap between open-source and closed-source models has been closed, with open-source models reaching GPT-4 levels by mid-2024, while top closed-source models have shown little progress since [3]. - The emergence of reasoning models like OpenAI o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro is driving a 20-fold increase in GPU demand, which will sustain high capital expenditures in AI infrastructure for the foreseeable future [3][6]. - The AI industry's "arms race" is no longer solely about foundational models; competitive advantages are increasingly derived from data assets, workflow integration, and fine-tuning capabilities in specific domains [3][6]. Group 2: Application Development - AI-native applications must establish a competitive moat, focusing on user habit formation and distribution channels rather than just technology replication [4][5]. - Companies like Everlaw demonstrate that deep integration of AI into existing workflows can provide unique efficiencies that standalone AI models cannot match [5]. - The cost of running models achieving constant MMLU benchmark scores has dramatically decreased from $60 per million tokens to $0.006, a reduction of 1000 times, yet overall computational spending is expected to rise due to new demand drivers [5][6]. Group 3: Key Features of Successful AI Applications - Successful AI application companies are characterized by rapid workflow integration, significantly reducing deployment times from months to weeks, exemplified by Decagon's ability to implement automated customer service systems within six weeks [7]. - Proprietary data and reinforcement learning are crucial, with dynamic user-generated data providing significant advantages for continuous model optimization [8]. - The strategic value of specialized talent is highlighted, as the success of generative AI applications relies heavily on top engineering talent capable of designing efficient AI systems [8].
X @Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto· 2025-08-25 13:18
BREAKING:🇺🇸 $3.14 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS HASBOUGHT $194 MILLION WORTH OF BITCOIN. https://t.co/7DDNYyzUZc ...
5 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy as the Dow Achieves New Milestones
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 12:45
Key Takeaways The Dow surged to a record 45,631.74 after Powells Jackson Hole comments.Rate-cut hopes and cyclical stock rotation fuel Dow's momentum.Five blue-chip stocks JPM, GS, JNJ, DIS and MSFT offer solid growth outlooks.On Aug. 22, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium for Economic Policies, gave a tepid indication of possible interest rate cuts in the rest of 2025. The Fed’s next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September. Despite a lukewarm hint, ...
高盛交易员:现在,一切取决于8月的非农
美股研究社· 2025-08-25 11:07
就 业 数 据 修 正 引 发 担 忧 高盛指出,对未来就业增长修正更可能偏向负面,原因包括多个方面。 首先 ,出生-死亡模型可能过于乐观; 其次 ,在过去的经济放缓中,原始就业数据的修正往往是负面的; 来源 | 华尔街见闻 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上为9月降息铺平了道路,但关键仍在于即将公布的非农就业数据能否为降息节奏和幅度提供决定性指 引。 8月23日,高盛固定收益部门(FICC)交易员Rikin Shah等表示,在杰克逊霍尔会议之前,市场一直处于观望状态。鲍 威尔的最新表态 已为9 月降息开了绿灯,特别是在最近的就业数据修正引起美联储对就业市场关注的背景下。 这正是鲍威尔在上次FOMC新闻发布会上提及并在杰克逊霍尔央行年会演讲中重申的"劳动力市场下行风险"的典型例证。高盛交易员认为, 如 果8月非农就业增长低于10万人,特别是在政治压力面前,将有助于确定9月降息 。 高盛指出, 如果劳动力市场进一步疲软,时间窗口就在当前 。该行认为,无论是在经济放缓还是正常化情景下, 美联储都很有可能在下任美 联储主席上任前完成本轮降息周期,即2026年上半年结束前 。 美联储正走在9月降息的轨道上,此后将 ...
X @Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto· 2025-08-25 10:19
🇺🇸 GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS 3 RATES CUTS IN 2025 ( SEPT, OCT & DEC )BULLISH FOR MARKETS 🚀 https://t.co/UkmETxFBZJ ...