该行预期，地产商股价将因缺乏减税措施而轻微承压，但恒基地产(00012)表现或好过同行，因其受惠 于农地收回加速、补地价付款灵活性提升，以及市区重建项目获批更高容积率，现予"买入"评级，目标 价29港元。 至于领展房产基金(00823)与九龙仓置业(01997)可能逊于同行，因REIT互联互通进展有限，而且吸引旅 客的措施不足;分别予"买入"及"中性"评级，目标价为44.2港元及20港元。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，新一份《施政报告》未有如该行预期中削减住宅印花税，"房地 产互联互通"没有任何进展，亦没有REIT互联互通的时间表。符合该行预测的是，政府加速推进北部都 会区发展，并将3,000万至5,000万港元的豪宅投资纳入新资本投资者入境计划。对私人住宅市场而言， 政府未有推出公屋租置计划，并将居屋白表配额由60%降至50%，均属正面讯号。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 32.68, reflecting a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 27.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to further lower interest expenses for the company, enhancing its valuation and performance in the real estate market [2][5]. - The acceleration of development in the Northern Metropolis area, as announced in the Chief Executive's policy address, is anticipated to benefit the company significantly due to its substantial agricultural land reserves in the region [5]. - The report projects an increase in the company's net asset value per share to HKD 65.4, up from HKD 57.6, based on improved liquidity and asset value expectations following the interest rate cuts [5]. Financial Overview - The company is expected to generate revenues of HKD 27,570 million in 2023, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [4][9]. - Core profit estimates for 2025 are set at HKD 9,257 million, reflecting a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14.6 times in 2025, indicating a slight increase from 13.8 times in 2024 [4][9]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.4% over the forecast period [4][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the anticipated further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a total reduction of 125 basis points by early 2027, which would positively impact the Hong Kong real estate sector [5]. - The company holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of agricultural land reserves, with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, which is significantly lower than recent land acquisition prices [5].

同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元，北部都会区加速，或将为公司未来几年带来可观的潜在收 益、盈利和现金流。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基 ...

美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基地产(00012)目标价26.2%，从25.9港元升至32.68港元，上调评级至"买 入"。 同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元 ...

摩通指，港府《施政报告》措施缺乏惊喜，美国降息幅度亦符合预期，地产股或出现短期获利回吐。该 行对港楼维持正面看法，建议趁低吸纳，发展商首选恒基地产及信和置业，收租股偏好太古地产及恒隆 地产，其次为九龙仓置业及领展。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，美联储降息25个基点后，港银亦跟随将最优惠利率下调12.5个基点。该行预 期，随着美联储未来进一步降息，而港银料跟随降息步伐，香港楼市将于2026年实现真正的正现金流回 报，支持对明年楼价增长3%至5%的基本预测，惟关键是恒指表现保持强势。 ...

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Group 1 - The recent policy report from the government does not present significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" have not been implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083), while the most favored landlords are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，新一份施政报告对与楼市而言没有太大惊喜，尽管已经提出 很多建议，但印花税减免和"购房通"均未落实，但这不太可能造成下行冲击，有媒体报道，这两项措施 均不会实施。唯一略微积极的宽松措施是放宽新的"资本投资者计划"(价值逾3000万港元的住宅单位现 在成为合资格投资)，这符合预期。 发展商方面，小摩的首选是恒基地产(00012)和信和置业(00083)。业主方面，最看好太古地产(01972)和 恒隆地产(00101)，其次是九龙仓置业(01997)和领展房产基金(00823)。 施政报告后，本港地产股股价反应平淡，9月17日相关板块表现落后恒生指数2%。尽管施政报告并未推 出强有力的宽松政策，但小摩认为房地产市场仍有可能在2025年下半年稳定，2026年楼价有望升3- 5%。 ...

整体而言，大摩预期新鸿基地产(00016)及恒基地产(00012)可能最大程度受惠于任何潜在楼市支持政 策，均予"增持"评级;虽然近期HIBOR回升，但美联储可能减息亦将带来支持。大摩较不看好九龙仓置 业(00004)认为其中国业务面临挑战，予"减持"评级。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，虽然住宅物业及零售市况趋稳，但市场普遍仍期待9月17日公布的新一份施政 报告会公布利好楼市的措施，当中包括将进一步削减楼价600万元以下住宅物业印花税、放宽资本投资 者入境计划要求以刺激豪宅投资需求、设立"购房资金通"计划，以及加快北部都会区土地收回及基建建 设。 零售市场方面，大摩指出虽然出台刺激措施的可能性较低，但若推出消费券等计划，通常可带动零售销 售，尤其利好领展房产基金(00823)旗下商场。该行又指，启德体育园开幕后本港不时举办大型体育及 娱乐活动，有助吸引各地旅客访港。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that while the residential property and retail market conditions are stabilizing, there are expectations for the Hong Kong government to announce favorable measures for the property market in the upcoming policy address on September 17 [1] - Proposed measures include further reducing stamp duty for residential properties priced below HKD 6 million, relaxing requirements for capital investors to stimulate luxury property investment demand, establishing a home purchase fund scheme, and accelerating land reclamation and infrastructure development in the Northern Metropolis [1] - Overall, Morgan Stanley anticipates that New World Development and Henderson Land Development may benefit the most from any potential property market support policies, maintaining an "overweight" rating for these companies [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent rise in HIBOR, the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide support for the market [1] - Morgan Stanley holds a less favorable view on Wharf Real Estate Investment Company, citing challenges in its mainland operations and assigning a "underweight" rating [1]