Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its year-end targets for the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) to 13,000 and 14,000 points, with potential targets for 2026 of 14,366, 15,522, and 16,679 points, indicating potential increases of 8%, 16%, and 25% respectively [1] - The recovery trend in Hong Kong has been significant since 2023, with strong financial market performance and a stabilizing residential property market, making valuations attractive compared to historical levels and other markets [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for Hong Kong for the next year, favoring stocks such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), Techtronic Industries (00669), China State Construction International (03311), Henderson Land Development (00012), and MTR Corporation (00066) [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) has returned 26% in USD terms, and its forecasted P/E ratio remains 0.3 standard deviations below the 10-year average, making Hong Kong the cheapest market in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) has returned 26% in USD terms year-to-date, indicating that Hong Kong remains one of the cheapest markets in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN, with a forecasted P/E ratio still 0.3 standard deviations below the 10-year average [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The MXHK index's year-to-date return of 26% highlights a significant recovery trend in Hong Kong since 2023 [1] - The financial market performance in Hong Kong has been strong, and the residential property market is stabilizing [1] Group 2: Valuation and Forecast - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end targets for MXHK to 13,000 and 14,000 points, assuming the index maintains or increases its P/E ratio relative to the past 10 years [1] - Potential targets for the end of 2026 are set at 14,366, 15,522, and 16,679 points, representing potential increases of 8%, 16%, and 25% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The firm maintains a positive outlook for Hong Kong, expecting continued capital inflows, and has upgraded the telecommunications services sector to "overweight" [1] - Preferred stocks include Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), Techtronic Industries (00669), China State Construction International (03311), Henderson Land Development (00012), and MTR Corporation (00066) [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS upgraded the investment rating of Cheung Kong Property from "Neutral" to "Buy," identifying it as the most undervalued stock among the real estate companies covered by the bank [1] Group 1: Potential Catalysts for Value Release - Potential catalysts for value release include acquisitions of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) assets in Hong Kong, continuous improvement in hotel profitability, and opportunities to convert hotels into student accommodations due to a structural increase in non-local student enrollment [1] - Additional catalysts mentioned are the disposal of UK railway assets and higher foreign exchange conversion gains following potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Stance on Hong Kong Banks and Developers - UBS maintains a "Neutral" stance on Hong Kong banks due to increased provisioning expenses related to commercial real estate exposure and risks of net interest margin contraction from a potential rate cut cycle [1] - The bank holds a "Positive" stance on Hong Kong developers, with top picks including Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Link REIT, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment, and Cathay Pacific, all rated as "Buy" [1] - Conversely, UBS is bearish on MTR Corporation, rating it as "Sell" [1]

II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00012 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年9月30日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points from Q4 2025 to Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027, reflecting the impact of reduced interest expenses, and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points between Q4 2025 and Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027 to reflect the impact of reduced interest expenses and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points, with two cuts in Q4 2025 and three cuts in Q1 2026 to 2027 [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market, which will enhance sales and profit margins in the real estate development sector [1] - The Hong Kong government's latest policy report introduces a more flexible land acquisition and exchange model, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Henderson Land Development monetize its substantial farmland reserves in the area [1] Group 2 - The report upgrades the rating for Henderson Land Development to "Buy," adjusting the net asset value discount from 55% to 50%, with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the prime rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125%, aligning with market expectations [1] - After the adjustment, the new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375% [1] - UBS maintains that Hong Kong property prices will remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory digestion [1] Group 2 - Among developers, UBS favors the performance of Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties over New World Development due to the latter's unattractive dividend yield [1] - UBS also prefers Hang Lung Properties, as the decline in HIBOR will reduce its interest expenses [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing of the net asset value discount from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Pacific Place, and a potential reduction in scrip dividend arrangements [1]

市场预计未来18 个月内美联储将再降息5 次。据彭博的共识预测，美联储将在2025 年4 季度再降息2 次，2026 年至2027 年1 季度再降息3 次，总计将进一步降息125 个基点。我们认为，降息进程将在2025 年剩余时间和2026 年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1）降低利息支出；2）进一步激活房地 产市场，促进房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升；以及3）投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。同时，中国香港特别行政区行政长官李家超在9 月17 日发布的施政 报告中，公布更灵活土地收地和交换模式，我们认为北部都会区加快开发将有助恒基地产在该地区的庞 大农田土地储备变现。恒基地产拥有约4,190 万平方尺的农地土地储备，历史平均成本仅为每平方呎227 港元（近期土地收地价超过每平方呎1,000 港元），北部都会区开发的加速或将为恒基地产在未来几年 带来可观的潜在收益、盈利和现金流。 上调评级至买入，目标价上调至32.68 港元：我们相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已有 所下降，基于美联储降息带来的市场资金流动性、资产价值提升预期以及北部都会区农地可能加速变现 的影响 ...

至于领展房产基金(00823)与九龙仓置业(01997)可能逊于同行，因REIT互联互通进展有限，而且吸引旅 客的措施不足;分别予"买入"及"中性"评级，目标价为44.2港元及20港元。 瑞银发布研报称，新一份《施政报告》未有如该行预期中削减住宅印花税，"房地产互联互通"没有任何 进展，亦没有REIT互联互通的时间表。符合该行预测的是，政府加速推进北部都会区发展，并将3,000 万至5,000万港元的豪宅投资纳入新资本投资者入境计划。对私人住宅市场而言，政府未有推出公屋租 置计划，并将居屋白表配额由60%降至50%，均属正面讯号。 该行预期，地产商股价将因缺乏减税措施而轻微承压，但恒基地产(00012)表现或好过同行，因其受惠 于农地收回加速、补地价付款灵活性提升，以及市区重建项目获批更高容积率，现予"买入"评级，目标 价29港元。 ...