Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that the performance of Henderson Land Development (00012) in the first half of this year met expectations, despite a significant decline in revenue and core net profit [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a drop in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion received from the government for land recovery in the first half of 2024 [1] Dividend Policy - The company maintained an interim dividend of HKD 0.5 per share [1] Investment Outlook - CMB International believes that the short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but there remains uncertainty in the medium to long term [1] - The rating for Henderson Land is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.9, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value (previously 60%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Hang Lung Properties (00012) has met expectations for its performance in the first half of the year, despite a significant decline in revenue and core net profit [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a drop in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion from the government for land recovery in the first half of 2024 [1] Dividend Information - The company maintained a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the half-year [1] Analyst Rating and Target Price - CMB International believes that short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but medium to long-term uncertainties remain [1] - The rating for Hang Lung Properties is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.9, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value (previously 60%) [1]

Group 1 - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion, primarily due to a decline in property sales and other income [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion, mainly attributed to a decrease in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion received in the first half of 2024 for government land recovery [1] - The company maintained a semi-annual dividend of HKD 0.5 per share, with the core payout ratio increasing by 34.7 percentage points year-on-year to 79.4% [1] Group 2 - Property development revenue decreased by 18.9% year-on-year to HKD 4.01 billion, impacted by one-time government land recovery income and a decline in profit margins for 2025 [1] - The pre-tax profit from property development dropped by 76.7% year-on-year to HKD 340 million [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company had unsold contracts worth HKD 12.7 billion, with approximately 66% expected to be recognized in the second half, maintaining a gross margin of 15-20% [1] Group 3 - Total rental income slightly decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to HKD 3.36 billion, with a stable occupancy rate of 93% [2] - The occupancy rate of The Henderson, a Grade A office in Central, reached 80%, significantly higher than another major new project in the same area, which is below 20% [2] - The company anticipates a slight decline in renewal rents, but believes that future rental growth will primarily come from an increase in The Henderson's occupancy and the phased completion of a large new waterfront project in Central between 2026 and 2032 [2] Group 4 - The company maintains a neutral rating with a target price raised to HKD 25.90, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value [2] - Short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but medium to long-term uncertainties remain, particularly regarding property development in Hong Kong and mainland China, as well as the long recovery period for the new waterfront project in Central [2]

星展发布研报称，由于缺乏大额资产处置收益，恒基地产(00012)中期基础盈利下跌44%，符合预期，每 股中期股息派0.5港元，保持稳定。该行指，集团拥有多种释放北方都会农地储备价值可行的方案，这 将会是关键关注点。该行指，有关北方都会开发项目的新闻将决定股价，目标价由28.75港元上调至 30.35港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，星展发布研报称，由于缺乏大额资产处置收益，恒基地产(00012)中期基础盈利下跌 44%，符合预期，每股中期股息派0.5港元，保持稳定。该行指，集团拥有多种释放北方都会农地储备 价值可行的方案，这将会是关键关注点。该行指，有关北方都会开发项目的新闻将决定股价，目标价由 28.75港元上调至30.35港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 25.90, indicating a potential downside of 5.3% from the current price of HKD 27.34 [1][7][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a revenue decline of 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion, primarily due to a drop in property sales and other income [7][8]. - Core net profit decreased by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion, attributed to a decline in gross margin and a one-time compensation from the government in the previous year [7][8]. - The company has a backlog of unsold properties worth HKD 12.7 billion, with approximately 66% expected to be recognized in the second half of the year, maintaining a gross margin of 15-20% [7][8]. - Rental income slightly decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to HKD 3.36 billion, with a stable occupancy rate of 93% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: HKD 27.57 billion in 2023, HKD 25.26 billion in 2024, HKD 29.02 billion in 2025, HKD 30.50 billion in 2026, and HKD 32.41 billion in 2027, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [6][12]. - Core earnings per share are expected to be HKD 2.00 in 2023, HKD 2.02 in 2024, HKD 1.90 in 2025, HKD 2.05 in 2026, and HKD 2.29 in 2027 [6][12]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 6.6% across the forecast period [6][12]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the Hong Kong real estate sector, facing challenges such as price uncertainty in property development and long recovery periods for investment properties [7][10]. - The report highlights that the rental growth potential is primarily driven by the leasing of The Henderson and the upcoming large-scale waterfront projects in Central, expected to be completed between 2026 and 2032 [7][10].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted the basic earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00012) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, increasing by 5% for 2025, decreasing by 1% for 2026, and decreasing by 2% for 2027, resulting in EPS estimates of HKD 1.58, HKD 1.80, and HKD 1.80 respectively [1] - The dividend forecast remains unchanged at HKD 1.80, with an expected average payout ratio of approximately 105% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 78% over the past five years [1] - The target price has been slightly reduced by 1.5% to HKD 19.30, while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1] Group 2 - For the first half of the year, Hang Lung Properties reported an EPS of HKD 0.60, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and an 11% decrease compared to the second half of the previous year [1] - The pre-tax income from land recovery during the period was HKD 240 million, a significant drop from HKD 2.5 billion in the same period last year [1] - Excluding one-time gains and the impact of investment property revaluation, the recurring basic EPS was HKD 0.58, down 4% year-on-year and 11% lower than the firm's expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected profit margins in property development [1] Group 3 - The interim dividend remains at HKD 0.50 per share, aligning with the firm's expectations [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the debt ratio is approximately 21%, unchanged from the end of the previous year; when including parent company loans, the debt ratio rises to about 43%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the second half of last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its earnings forecasts for Hang Lung Properties (00012) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with a slight increase for 2025 and decreases for the following two years, while maintaining the dividend forecast unchanged [1] Financial Performance - The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.6 for the first half of the year, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and an 11% decrease compared to the second half of the previous year [1] - The pre-tax income from land recovery was HKD 240 million, significantly lower than the HKD 2.5 billion reported in the same period last year [1] - Excluding one-time gains and the impact of investment property revaluation, the recurring basic EPS was HKD 0.58, down 4% year-on-year and 11% below Goldman Sachs' expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected profit margins in property development [1] Dividend and Payout Ratio - The interim dividend remains at HKD 0.5 per share, aligning with Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The average payout ratio for the next three years is projected to be around 105%, compared to an average of approximately 78% over the past five years [1] Debt and Financial Ratios - As of June 30, 2025, the debt ratio is approximately 21%, unchanged from the end of the previous year; when including parent company loans, the debt ratio rises to about 43%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the second half of last year [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Hang Lung Properties has been slightly reduced by 1.5% to HKD 19.3, with a maintained "Sell" rating [1]

高盛发表研报指，恒基地产上半年每股盈利0.6港元，按年跌8%，较去年下半年跌11%。期内来自土地 收回的税前收益2.4亿港元，相比去年同期的土地收回及投资物业处置收益为25亿港元。剔除一次性收 益及IP重估影响，经常性基本每股盈利0.58港元，按年跌4%，较该行预期低11%，主要因物业发展(DP) 利润率低于预期。中期股息维持每股0.5港元，符合该行预期。截至2025年6月底，负债比率约21%，与 去年末持平，若计入母公司贷款则负债比率约43%，较去年下半年升2个百分点。 该行将2025至27财年基本每股盈利预测分别上调5%、下调1%及下调2%，至1.58港元、1.8港元及1.8港 元，预期未来三年平均派息比率约105%，对比过去五年平均约78%。该行对其目标价微降1.5%至19.3港 元，维持"沽售"评级。 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Background - The stock price of Henderson Land Development (00012.HK) closed at HKD 25.91 on August 11, 2025, reflecting a 1.5% increase from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 74,500 lots and a total market capitalization of HKD 125.424 billion [4] - The company's 2024 financial report indicated a revenue of HKD 23.388 billion and a net profit of HKD 6.744 billion, with earnings per share at HKD 1.3 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 times [4] - The "withdrawal of cooling measures" policy implemented in February 2024 significantly reduced home buying costs, stimulating market demand [4] Group 2: Industry Sales Data and Growth Drivers - In July 2025, the number of residential property sale agreements in Hong Kong reached 5,766, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, with the primary market seeing over 1,000 transactions for six consecutive months [6] - The private residential price index rose for three consecutive months, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.86%, while the rental index increased by 1.61% over the same period [6] - The introduction of the talent import scheme is expected to attract over 75,000 high-end talents and their families to Hong Kong, boosting rental and purchasing demand [6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The property sales of Henderson Land Development are likely to exceed expectations due to the overall market recovery and favorable policies, particularly in high-end residential and core area projects [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the Hong Kong property market, driven by lower interest rates and improved market confidence [5] - The long-term demand is supported by the Northern Metropolis planning, which includes 176,000 residential units, and the talent scheme [6]