Core Viewpoint - UBS downgraded the rating of Henderson Land Development (00012) from "Buy" to "Neutral," citing that the risk and return have become balanced after the stock price increase driven by the recovery of the Hong Kong residential and office market [1] Group 1: Rating and Target Price - UBS raised the target price from HKD 29 to HKD 30.5 [1] Group 2: Dividend Sustainability Concerns - Recent market focus has been on the sustainability of the company's dividends [1] - The lack of whole property transactions and the 2025 agricultural land conversion project may lead to a projected negative free cash flow of HKD 4.8 billion after dividends in 2025 [1] Group 3: Dividend Reduction Scenarios - UBS's scenario analysis indicates that a potential 55% reduction in dividends (to HKD 0.81 per share) could achieve free cash flow balance, allowing the controlling family to receive more cash due to reduced shareholder loan contributions [1] - The probability-weighted dividend per share, assuming a 50% chance of a reduction to HKD 0.81, is calculated at HKD 1.3, with the current dividend yield at 4.3%, comparable to Cheung Kong Group (01113) [1] - This suggests that the market has partially reflected the risk of dividend reduction, further supporting UBS's view of balanced risk and return [1] - UBS maintains its forecast for Henderson Land's 2025 dividend per share at HKD 1.8 [1]

Group 1 - UBS downgraded the rating of Henderson Land Development from "Buy" to "Neutral" [1] - The downgrade is attributed to the balance of risk and reward after the stock price increase driven by the recovery of the Hong Kong residential and office market [1] - The target price was raised from HKD 29 to HKD 30.5 [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年12月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年1月6日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00012 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - Cheung Kong Property (01113) is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm anticipates a 10% increase in residential property prices this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is expected due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, with a projected rental growth of 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land Development (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving "Overweight" ratings [1] - Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) is also a preferred choice, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm expects residential property prices to rise by 10% this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is anticipated due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, which will stimulate further investment demand, with rental growth expected to be 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to rise by 10% this year due to increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 1: Property Market Outlook - The anticipated increase in residential property prices is supported by strong rental performance driven by talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, which in turn stimulates more investment demand [1] - Rental prices are projected to grow by 5% this year, further enhancing the attractiveness of the property market [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has raised target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development and Henderson Land Development being top picks, having their target prices increased from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving "Overweight" ratings [1] - Cheung Kong Property is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Henderson Land Development's residential project, Xiaobai Peak, sold 12 units in a single day, achieving a total transaction value of 66.66 million HKD, with the highest transaction price recorded at 20,088 HKD per square foot [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - As of January 3, Henderson Land Development's sales for the year 2026 exceeded 120 million HKD, involving 21 units across six projects, including THE HENLEY series and BAKER CIRCLE [1] - The sales from Xiaobai Peak accounted for 57% of the total units sold during this period, making it the primary sales project [1] Group 2: Market Activity - Sun Hung Kai Properties launched the second phase of the Sierra Sea residential project, focusing on three-bedroom units of approximately 700 square feet [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup reports that JD Group has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Tower for HKD 3.5 billion from Lixin Development, while a local higher education institution purchased a commercial building in Kowloon Tong for HKD 1.96 billion from Frasers Property [1] - Citigroup expects demand from Chinese enterprises for office spaces to continue supporting the Hong Kong office market, driven by factors such as more Chinese tech giants considering acquisitions and an increase in A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong [1] - The report notes that the sale of office properties in Hong Kong is primarily aimed at generating immediate cash flow and optimizing investment portfolios, with some regional owners considering growth prospects in other markets like Singapore and Australia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that office performance in Central and West Kowloon will outperform other regions by 2026, with rental rates for major owners in Central likely stabilizing by the end of next year [2] - The report highlights that new premium supply in West Kowloon, such as IGC, may be competitive in attracting demand, with rental levels expected to be comparable to those in the Eastern District of Hong Kong Island [2] - Citigroup anticipates increased competition in Causeway Bay due to a historic high in overall new supply, with specific projects like Hysan Development's Lee Garden performing well, while properties in Eastern Hong Kong Island may face pressure [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup reports that JD Group has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Tower for HKD 3.5 billion from Lishin Development, while a local higher education institution purchased a commercial building in Kowloon Tong for HKD 1.96 billion from Frasers Property [1] - The demand from Chinese enterprises for office spaces is expected to continue supporting the Hong Kong office market, driven by factors such as more Chinese tech giants considering property acquisitions in Hong Kong and an increase in A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong [1] - Citigroup observes that the sale of office properties in Hong Kong is primarily aimed at generating immediate cash flow and optimizing investment portfolios, particularly for regional owners who are also considering commercial property growth prospects in other regions like Singapore and Australia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that office performance in Central and West Kowloon will outperform other areas by 2026, with rental rates for major owners in Central likely stabilizing by the end of next year [2] - New quality supply in West Kowloon, such as IGC, is expected to be competitive in attracting demand, with rental levels comparable to those in the Eastern District of Hong Kong, benefiting companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties [2] - Given the historical high of overall new supply, competition in Causeway Bay is anticipated to intensify, with projects like Hysan Development's Lee Gardens likely to perform well, while properties in Eastern Hong Kong may face pressure [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup reported that JD Group agreed to acquire a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Tower for HKD 3.5 billion from Lishin Development, while a local higher education institution purchased a Kowloon Tong office building for HKD 1.96 billion from Frasers Property [1] - Citigroup expects demand from Chinese enterprises for office spaces to continue supporting the Hong Kong office market, driven by factors such as more Chinese tech giants considering property acquisitions and an increase in A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong [1] - The report noted that the sale of office buildings in Hong Kong is primarily aimed at generating immediate cash flow and optimizing investment portfolios, particularly for regional owners who are also considering commercial property growth in other regions like Singapore and Australia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that office performance in Central and West Kowloon will outperform other areas by 2026, with rental rates for major owners in Central expected to stabilize by the end of next year [2] - The report highlights that new quality supply in West Kowloon, such as IGC, may be competitive in attracting demand, with rental levels comparable to those in the Eastern District of Hong Kong Island [2] - Citigroup anticipates increased competition in Causeway Bay due to a historic high in overall new supply, with specific projects like Hysan Development's Lee Garden performing well, while properties in Eastern Hong Kong Island may face pressure [2]