Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong Q2 2025 performance with revenue reaching RMB 51.56 billion, a 17% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's first-party (1P) and third-party (3P) integrated supply chain businesses grew by 31% and 18% respectively, driven by robust performance on the JD platform and support from trade renewal policies [3] - Gross margin improved to 10.6%, significantly up from 7.2% in Q1, although it slightly declined compared to the same period last year [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit was approximately RMB 2.6 billion, aligning with market consensus [3] - The company anticipates continued revenue acceleration in the second half of the year, particularly with the new food delivery business contributing to revenue starting in Q3 [3] - Despite a projected 23% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 due to high base effects and increased logistics resource investments, a strong rebound in profitability is expected in Q4 with a projected 35% year-on-year growth [3] Strategic Initiatives - JD Logistics is actively expanding its overseas market presence, having established a self-operated express network, JoyExpress, in Saudi Arabia as of June 2025, with plans to expand into Europe within the year [3] - The company aims to strengthen its core supply chain competitiveness by increasing investments in warehousing and last-mile delivery [3] - Despite facing short-term profit fluctuations, JD Logistics maintains a long-term competitive advantage through its extensive warehousing network and technological capabilities [3]

瑞银发表研报指，京东物流次季收入按年升幅为17%令市场惊喜，盈利符合预期。管理层对达成全年增 长目标有更大信心，即目标总收入及非国际财务报告准则净利润分别达到双位数和中个位数增长。管理 层又考虑到其新开设的食品配送服务的潜在贡献，料其全年收入增长或超越市场预期。该行表示，由于 该公司的乐观情绪，上调财务预测，预计公司今年的收入增长16%，而非国际财务报告准则净利润则升 6.5%。该行将公司目标价由17.4港元上调至18港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 98.532 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit of 2.959 billion yuan, up 15.27% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, JD Logistics reported a net profit of 2.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.580 billion yuan, up 13.96% [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 3.339 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - Revenue growth accelerated, with H1 2025 revenue growth of 14.1%, surpassing the 11.0% growth in H1 2024 and the 9.7% growth for the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 2: Revenue Sources - Revenue from JD Group reached 32.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, while revenue from external customers was 66.07 billion yuan, up 10.2% [1] - The proportion of revenue from external customers decreased slightly to 67.1% from 69.4% in the same period last year [1] Group 3: Customer Growth and Cost Structure - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased by 14.5% to 73,700, an improvement from the 5.9% growth in the same period last year [2] - Average revenue per customer remained stable at 239,000 yuan [2] - Operating costs rose to 77.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, slightly outpacing revenue growth [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin slightly declined from 9.8% to 9.0% due to higher employee compensation and outsourcing costs, which grew by 17.1% and 19.2% respectively [2] - The company anticipates that profit margins will improve as scale effects materialize [2] Group 5: Technological Innovation and International Expansion - JD Logistics' self-developed "Smart Wolf" solution has entered a new phase of nationwide replication, enhancing order processing efficiency [2] - The company has expanded its overseas warehouse coverage to 23 countries and regions, launching the self-operated express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia [3] - The overseas business is expected to continue growing as the company leverages its logistics network and integrated supply chain capabilities [3] Group 6: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 6.85 billion, 7.91 billion, and 8.95 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported a revenue increase of 14.1% year-on-year to 98.53 billion yuan in 1H25, with net profit rising by 13.9% to 2.58 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue from JD Group and external customers grew by 22.9% and 10.2% respectively in 1H25, with JD Group revenue at 32.46 billion yuan, accounting for 32.9% of total revenue, an increase of 2.4 percentage points [1][2] - External customer revenue reached 66.07 billion yuan, representing 67.1% of total revenue, with integrated supply chain business revenue at 50.11 billion yuan, up 19.9% year-on-year [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin and Non-IFRS profit margin for 1H25 were 9.0% and 3.4%, down 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased resource investment for business expansion [2][3] - In 2Q25, gross margin and Non-IFRS profit margin were 10.6% and 5.0%, reflecting a decline of 1.3 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Expansion - The company is increasing logistics infrastructure and personnel, with over 1,600 warehouses and more than 19,000 delivery stations as of June 30, employing over 660,000 operational staff [3] - JD Logistics launched its self-operated express delivery brand JoyExpress in Saudi Arabia, establishing a logistics network covering warehousing, sorting, and last-mile delivery [3] Future Outlook - The company has slightly raised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 2.6% to 210.41 billion, 231.95 billion, and 254.25 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining net profit forecasts at 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, and 9.38 billion yuan [4] - The target price remains at 16.7 HKD with a "Buy" rating, based on a PE ratio of 14.8x for 2025E [4]

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - External customer revenue reached 66.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year was 3.3 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, indicating steady growth in performance [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - The integrated supply chain business significantly contributed to revenue growth, with income from other customers, including express delivery, amounting to 48.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business was 50.1 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] - Key growth drivers include government subsidies promoting consumption in relevant categories, continuous improvement in warehousing and distribution capabilities, and contributions from new industries and customers, with average revenue per external integrated supply chain customer reaching 239,000 yuan [1] Cost and Employee Insights - Employee costs rose to 35 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 17.1% from 29.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, driven by business expansion [1] - The company expanded its food delivery business, leading to increased logistics costs, and is currently focusing on the integration of various business lines, including express delivery and brands like Kuaixue and Debang [1] Profit Forecast and Rating Adjustment - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with adjusted net profit expected to be 8.307 billion yuan, 9.166 billion yuan, and 10.513 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.93%, 10.34%, and 14.70% respectively [1] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x for the respective years [1] - Due to uncertainties arising from the integration of multiple business lines, the rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q2 2025 performance met expectations, with significant growth in supply chain business and the launch of full-time delivery rider services, indicating potential for enhanced network collaboration [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 51.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% - Non-IFRS net profit was 2.59 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 5.0%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew by 26% year-on-year to 26.9 billion yuan, with external customer revenue increasing by 18% to 9.1 billion yuan [1]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs rose by 18% year-on-year, with employee benefits and outsourcing costs both increasing by 21% - Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 10.6% due to increased costs associated with the expansion of delivery services [2]. - The company employed over 660,000 staff, including full-time delivery riders, an increase of approximately 180,000 from the end of 2024 [2]. Development Trends - The company began recruiting and managing full-time riders in Q2 2025, participating in JD's delivery services and launching instant retail services [2]. - The integration of delivery riders with existing logistics networks is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and capacity flexibility [2]. - Continued investment in internationalization and automation, including the launch of a self-operated express brand in Saudi Arabia and the development of self-researched light trucks [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 2.7% and 5.8% to 8.307 billion yuan and 8.883 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to 10.2 times and 9.4 times the non-IFRS P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of 18.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32.5% [3].

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported its 2Q25 earnings, showing a revenue increase of 17% YoY to Rmb51.56 billion and a non-IFRS net profit rise of 5% YoY to Rmb2.59 billion, aligning with expectations [1] Revenue Growth - The revenue from integrated supply chain customers increased by 26% YoY to Rmb26.9 billion, with JD Group's revenue rising 31% YoY to Rmb17.8 billion, driven by government subsidies and JD Food Delivery expansion [2] - Revenue from external integrated supply chain customers grew 18% YoY to Rmb9.1 billion, with the number of external customers increasing by 14% YoY to approximately 65,854, and average revenue per customer (ARPC) rising 4% YoY to about Rmb138,874 [2] Cost Analysis - The cost of revenue increased by 18% YoY in 2Q25, with employee benefit expenses rising 21% YoY, while gross profit margin fell by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 10.6% [3] - The firm employed over 660,000 in-house operational employees as of 1H25, an increase of about 180,000 compared to the end of 2024, indicating rising staff costs due to business expansion [3] Future Trends - The instant delivery business is expected to contribute incremental revenue, with the firm recruiting full-time riders for JD Food Delivery and launching integrated warehousing and delivery services [4] - The firm anticipates that food delivery riders will create synergies with the existing express delivery network, enhancing last-mile delivery efficiency and service flexibility [4] - Continued investments in internationalization and automation include launching the JoyExpress brand in Saudi Arabia and developing unmanned light-duty trucks [4] Financial Forecasts - The firm has revised its 2025 and 2026 non-IFRS net profit forecasts down by 2.7% and 5.8% to Rmb8,307 million and Rmb8,883 million, respectively [5] - The stock is currently trading at 10.2x 2025e and 9.4x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$18.50, implying a 32.5% upside [5]

Core Insights - JD Logistics has demonstrated strong strategic determination and growth quality, achieving total revenue of 98.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and adjusted net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [1][9] Revenue Growth and Business Segments - The growth in revenue is driven by technological empowerment, network optimization, and refined management, with integrated supply chain customer revenue reaching 50.11 billion yuan, up 19.9% year-on-year, and a second-quarter growth rate of 26.3% [2] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers exceeded 70,000, with an average revenue per customer of 239,000 yuan, indicating robust growth across various sectors including home appliances, apparel, fast-moving consumer goods, and automotive [2] - Revenue from other customers, including express and freight services, reached 48.42 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] Technological Advancements - JD Logistics focuses on cutting-edge technology applications, with self-developed products like "JD Logistics Super Brain" and "Wolf Pack" series driving cost reduction and efficiency improvements across the logistics chain [4] - The "JD Logistics Super Brain" enhances supply chain optimization, significantly improving retail site selection and marketing efficiency, while the "Wolf Pack" robots have revolutionized warehousing and delivery processes, achieving a fourfold increase in storage efficiency [4][5] Global Expansion - JD Logistics is expanding its international presence through the "Global Weaving Network" plan, establishing overseas warehouses in countries such as the USA, UK, Poland, South Korea, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia, covering 23 countries and regions as of June 30, 2025 [6] - The company is enhancing its logistics capabilities in Hong Kong and Macau, with the launch of the Hong Kong operation center improving sorting efficiency and delivery times [8] Industry Leadership - JD Logistics' performance reflects its resilience as an industry leader, with a revenue growth rate of 14.1% leading the sector, showcasing the core value of integrated supply chain enterprises in the global industrial landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by integrated supply chain services, highlighting its strategic importance within JD's business landscape [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, JD Logistics achieved revenue of 98.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 2.96 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year [2]. - Integrated supply chain customer revenue accounted for over half of total revenue, growing by 19.9% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - Integrated supply chain revenue reached 50.11 billion yuan in the first half, with a growth rate of 19.9%, significantly contributing to overall performance [5]. - External integrated supply chain customer revenue was 17.6 billion yuan, marking a 14.7% increase, with the number of external customers exceeding 70,000, up 14.5% [5]. - Other customer revenue, including express and freight services, totaled 48.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [8]. International Expansion - JD Logistics has made substantial investments in overseas operations, including launching a self-operated express brand, JoyExpress, in Saudi Arabia [8]. - The company has initiated a global network plan focusing on overseas warehouses, international routes, and express service capabilities [9]. - As of June 30, 2025, JD Logistics operated 10 dedicated cargo aircraft and opened several international freight routes [9]. Workforce and Costs - As of June 30, 2025, JD Logistics employed over 660,000 delivery personnel, including full-time riders [8]. - Total human resource expenditure reached 95.7 billion yuan over the past 12 months [8]. Future Outlook - The company is exploring potential new growth drivers beyond integrated supply chain and express services, with a focus on overseas market strategies [11]. - The challenges and opportunities in international markets are expected to shape JD Logistics' future growth trajectory [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Outperform" [2][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1%, with external customer revenue reaching 66.1 billion yuan, up 10.2% [6] - The integrated supply chain business has driven revenue growth, with a 19.9% increase in revenue from this segment, contributing significantly to overall growth [6] - Employee costs have risen alongside business expansion, with the number of employees exceeding 660,000 and employee costs increasing by 17.1% to 35 billion yuan [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits of 83.07 billion yuan, 91.66 billion yuan, and 105.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (million yuan): 2023: 166,625; 2024: 182,838; 2025E: 204,215; 2026E: 225,948; 2027E: 247,880 [3] - Adjusted Net Profit (million yuan): 2023: 2,761; 2024: 7,917; 2025E: 8,307; 2026E: 9,166; 2027E: 10,513 [3] - Earnings per Share (yuan/share): 2023: 0.44; 2024: 1.25; 2025E: 1.31; 2026E: 1.45; 2027E: 1.66 [3] - Return on Equity (%): 2023: 5.73%; 2024: 14.31%; 2025E: 13.23%; 2026E: 12.86%; 2027E: 12.96% [3] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 13.96 [4] - Market capitalization (billion HKD): 928.07 [4] - 52-week high/low (HKD): 16.84/7.68 [4]