Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 18% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 216.2 billion yuan, while non-IFRS net profit may decline by 4.2% to 7.59 billion yuan, resulting in a non-IFRS net profit margin of 3.5% [1] - The merger with Dada's instant delivery service is driving steady revenue growth, but sales pressure in certain categories of JD Retail may impact the revenue from internal orders in Q4 [1] - Q4 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year to 62.5 billion yuan, with a slight deceleration compared to Q3 2025's 24% growth, primarily due to expected declines in JD Retail revenue [1] Group 2 - The company may incur a one-time inventory loss provision in Q4 2025, particularly related to overseas warehouses, which could temporarily pressure profits [2] - A strategic adjustment in the company's sub-groups is anticipated in the second half of 2025, leading to a 24% downward revision of Q4 2025 non-IFRS net profit to 2.23 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year [2] - Long-term growth prospects remain positive due to the company's leading integrated supply chain capabilities, rapid growth in overseas business, and deep integration of delivery and sub-group operations with core business [2] Group 3 - The profit margin is under continuous pressure due to upfront cost investments and domestic and international logistics demand may not meet expectations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the company is expected to maintain a high revenue growth rate in Q4 2025, with projected revenue of 62.5 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion yuan [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting adjusted net profits of 7.623 billion, 8.776 billion, and 9.945 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [2] - The company is focusing on integrated supply chain business and expanding its instant delivery, express, and overseas supply chain services, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - The management transformation within the company is fully implemented, with increased investment in high-end e-commerce and high-value business scenarios, which is expected to improve profits in 2026 [1] - The company is increasing resource allocation towards high-demand services such as urgent business deliveries and cold chain logistics, which is expected to enhance revenue growth [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite lowering profit forecasts, as it believes there is still room for market value growth compared to competitors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company's fundamental logic remains unchanged, with capability building driving growth in new business scenarios. The rapid growth of the express delivery business is expected to exceed revenue forecasts, but short-term pressures from labor costs, administrative expenses, and resource investments are constraining profit release. In the long term, integrating rider management under JD Logistics to handle "express + instant delivery" can maximize labor efficiency. The future operational capacity will leverage a pool of approximately 450,000 couriers and over 150,000 riders to enhance JD Logistics' urban delivery capabilities [1] Event Highlights - On December 26, JD Logistics successfully completed its first overseas drone test flight, marking the company's first use of drones for cargo transport abroad, which is a significant step in "express delivery going global" - On the same day, the company's first overseas intelligent warehouse officially commenced operations in the UK - Starting January 1, 2026, the consumer goods recycling subsidy officially launched, with JD Logistics completing the first order fulfillment of the 2026 "National Subsidy" on the same day. On January 5, the first order involving robot-assisted delivery was completed [1] Business Performance - Currently, international business accounts for less than 5% of the company's revenue, with expectations for international revenue to continue a high growth trend of 25% in 2026. The company is steadily advancing the deployment of automation equipment (such as unmanned vehicles and drones) and various robots, with capital expenditure expected to gradually increase year by year. However, the company will manage the balance between automation investment and the benefits of technological efficiency to drive long-term profit improvement [1] Risk Analysis - The expansion of integrated supply chain business may slow down, as the company's strategic focus is on integrated supply chain services. The recovery of the macro economy and market demand in China in 2025 will be crucial for the growth of this business segment, particularly for small and medium-sized clients [2] - Internal network integration for cost reduction and efficiency improvement may not meet expectations, as the merger with Debon Logistics in 2022 aimed to reduce capital expenditure and ongoing losses in express and large parcel delivery, but the integration process faces uncertainties due to the complexity of the national network [2] - Rising labor costs and supply-demand imbalances pose challenges, as the logistics industry is labor-intensive and faces recruitment pressures due to an aging population and competition from flexible employment sectors [3] - The pace of industrial upgrading and commercialization of technology may not meet expectations, as the national strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan encourages high-end industrial development, which presents opportunities for JD Logistics but also involves risks during the transformation process [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in Q4 2025, with projected revenue of 625 billion RMB and adjusted net profit of 22.6 billion RMB. The focus for 2025 will be on revenue growth and investment, particularly in integrated supply chain and instant delivery services [5]. - The management has undergone changes aimed at enhancing high-value business segments, which is expected to drive steady revenue growth and improve profits in 2026 [5]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 76.23 billion, 87.76 billion, and 99.45 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a short-term cost increase due to investments in resources [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 166.625 billion RMB - 2024: 182.838 billion RMB - 2025E: 216.118 billion RMB - 2026E: 243.312 billion RMB - 2027E: 267.780 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2023: 21.27% - 2024: 9.73% - 2025E: 18.20% - 2026E: 12.58% - 2027E: 10.06% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 2.761 billion RMB - 2024: 7.917 billion RMB - 2025E: 7.623 billion RMB - 2026E: 8.776 billion RMB - 2027E: 9.945 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at: - 2023: 218.79% - 2024: 186.75% - 2025E: -3.71% - 2026E: 15.13% - 2027E: 13.31% [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant revenue increase in Q4 2025, projecting revenue of 62.5 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion RMB. The company is focusing on revenue growth and investment, particularly in integrated supply chain and instant delivery services, which are expected to drive high revenue growth in Q4 2025 [9] - The management restructuring and increased investment in high-end e-commerce and valuable business scenarios are expected to improve profits in 2026. The company is enhancing its service capabilities and optimizing its business structure, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [9] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downward, with expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 76.23 billion, 87.76 billion, and 99.45 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -3.71%, +15.13%, and +13.31% [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: - 2023: 166.625 billion RMB - 2024: 182.838 billion RMB - 2025E: 216.118 billion RMB - 2026E: 243.312 billion RMB - 2027E: 267.780 billion RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 2.761 billion RMB - 2024: 7.917 billion RMB - 2025E: 7.623 billion RMB - 2026E: 8.776 billion RMB - 2027E: 9.945 billion RMB - The report indicates a significant increase in adjusted net profit for 2023 compared to 2022, with a growth rate of 218.79% [8][10]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 京东物流股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 1,000,000 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02618 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 6,656,781,772 | | 0 | | 6,656,781,772 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 6,656,781,772 | | 0 | | ...

Core Insights - JD Logistics will maintain uninterrupted service during the overseas Spring Festival, with over 130 overseas warehouses, bonded warehouses, and direct mail warehouses operational [1] - JD's European online retail business, Joybuy, can deliver products to European consumers on the same day [1] - JD's overseas warehouses have expanded their coverage to 23 countries and regions globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - As the Spring Festival approaches, JD Logistics is committed to providing uninterrupted logistics services, ensuring a smooth and efficient shopping experience for consumers and supporting merchants during the holiday season [1][2]. Domestic Logistics Services - JD Logistics will focus on high-frequency consumer needs during the Spring Festival, offering a one-stop logistics solution that includes express delivery, appliance installation, and instant delivery services [2]. - All "Asia No. 1" smart industrial parks will operate around the clock, supported by hundreds of regional smart warehouses to ensure stable fulfillment networks, promising services like "same-day delivery" and "next-day delivery" [2]. - The company has established front warehouses in key cities to enhance its instant delivery capabilities, allowing for rapid order processing and delivery [2][3]. International Logistics Services - JD Logistics operates over 130 overseas warehouses to ensure continuous service during the Spring Festival, covering 23 countries and regions [4]. - In Europe, popular products like frozen dumplings and hot pot ingredients are being stored in JD's overseas warehouses for quick dispatch, while in the U.S., a high-efficiency service guarantees delivery within 2-3 days [4]. - The company is expanding its logistics services in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, providing integrated delivery services for large items [4]. Cross-Border Logistics - There has been a significant increase in the volume of Chinese New Year-themed products being shipped globally, with cross-border small package shipments between China and the U.S. increasing by over 100% since mid-2025 [5]. - JD Logistics has developed a comprehensive cross-border logistics network that can deliver goods to most countries within four days [5]. Technological Innovations - JD Logistics has launched the industry's first "AI New Year Goods Map," which uses AI to predict demand and optimize inventory distribution, enhancing logistics efficiency [6][8]. - The implementation of smart management has improved delivery times and reduced cross-regional distribution, significantly benefiting merchants [8]. - The company is also deploying advanced technologies like the "Super Brain" model and "Wolf Pack" robots to enhance logistics operations across multiple regions [8]. Employee Support Initiatives - JD Logistics plans to include full-time delivery riders in its Spring Festival support team, providing them with festive meals to foster a sense of community and warmth during the holiday [8].

Core Viewpoint - As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics demand is expected to surge, and JD Logistics is committed to providing uninterrupted services during the holiday period, ensuring a smooth shopping experience for consumers and operational stability for merchants [1][3]. Domestic Logistics Services - JD Logistics will focus on high-frequency consumer needs during the Spring Festival, offering a one-stop logistics solution that includes express delivery, appliance installation, and instant delivery services [3]. - All "Asia No. 1" smart industrial parks will operate around the clock during the festival, supported by hundreds of regional smart warehouses to ensure stable fulfillment networks [3]. - The company has established front warehouses in key cities to enable rapid order processing and delivery, with promises of same-day and next-day delivery services [3]. - Instant delivery services will be enhanced for popular products such as gift boxes, digital products, and fresh food, with some items available for delivery in as little as 9 minutes [3][5]. International Logistics Services - JD Logistics will maintain operations in over 130 overseas warehouses across 23 countries and regions, ensuring timely delivery of goods during the Spring Festival [6]. - In Europe, popular frozen products are being stored in JD's overseas warehouses for quick dispatch, while in the U.S., a high-efficiency service covers most regions with a delivery time of 2-3 days [8]. - The company has seen a significant increase in cross-border logistics volume, with a 100% growth in cross-border small package shipments between China and the U.S. since December 2025 [9]. Technological Innovations - JD Logistics has launched the industry's first "AI New Year Goods Map," which uses AI to predict demand and optimize inventory distribution, allowing for proactive stock management [9][11]. - The implementation of smart management has improved delivery efficiency, with next-day delivery times increasing by 14% and cross-region delivery ratios decreasing from 27% to 6% [11]. - The company is also deploying advanced technologies such as the "Super Brain" model and "Wolf Pack" robots across multiple provinces and countries to enhance logistics efficiency [11]. Employee Support Initiatives - JD Logistics plans to include full-time delivery riders in the Spring Festival support team, providing them with festive meals to foster a sense of community and warmth during the holiday [11].

Group 1 - JD Logistics (02618) announced that on January 1, 2026, the company granted 1.4882 million new shares as part of its post-IPO share incentive plan to the grantees [1][3] - The awarded shares represent approximately 0.02% of the total shares issued as of the grant date [1][3]