24 November 2025 | 11:38PM HKT Equity Research JD Logistics (2618.HK): Internet Trip Takeaways: Investments into overseas; AI & automation to drive cost efficiencies: Buy We hosted JD Logistics' Investor Relations team with investors in Beijing on Nov 24 as part of our China Internet Trip. Key investor focuses/topics discussed include: 1) Steady overseas investment cadence into FY26, where the company currently has a total of overseas warehouse floor area of 1.3mn square meters across 130+ warehouses, achie ...

出品丨大V商业 王振辉重回京东物流担任CEO。 文丨周铭 正如当年王振辉在京东物流上市前夕辞任带给行业的震惊，如今重回京东物流担任CEO再次给业界带来了疑惑。 2025年11月13日，京东物流发布了一则震动业界的人事公告：胡伟已辞任执行董事、首席执行官，自当日起生效，并将于京东集团担任其他职务。 这两个人的"换防"在当时的京东有着关键的象征意义。 接替他的，是王振辉。 这位在上市前夕关键时刻离开了自己一手带大的京东物流前CEO，如今在京东多方出击、多个业务面临"危"和"难"的关键时刻，再次回归对京东物流来说 意味着什么？ 我们认为，出海欧洲成为京东的重要战略后，海外物流的建设会成为主攻方向，这也是京东在欧洲市场和已经建立起规模的速卖通AliExpress以及 TEMU、Shein差异化竞争的优势。 一个关键的信息是，京东物流在2025H1报告中首次提到了在中东推出了快递品牌JoyExpress，这也是京东物流在海外开始从仓到配的转变。 那么谁来打这场仗，王振辉可能是不二人选。 作为京东物流的原CEO，也是刘强东复出后启用的老将之一，有意思的是，原先的京东3C负责人闫小兵也在23年回归，这让刘强东的这次用人调任 ...

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported better-than-expected operating performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 24% [1][2] - The integrated supply chain remains a key advantage for JD Logistics, with revenue from this segment reaching 30.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 45.08% [1][2] - The overseas business has become a new growth engine, with continued high-speed growth and strategic partnerships, including with a well-known electric vehicle brand [1][5] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, JD Logistics achieved operating revenue of 55.1 billion yuan, up from 44.4 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a growth of 24.10% [2] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 2.02 billion yuan, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was approximately 153.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.50%, with net profit at 4.61 billion yuan, up 3.15% [1] Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue from the integrated supply chain segment reached 30.1 billion yuan, accounting for 54.70% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 45.8% [2] - External integrated supply chain customer revenue was 8.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [2] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers grew to 66,800, with an average revenue per customer of 133,700 yuan [2] Overseas Expansion - JD Logistics' overseas business continues to grow rapidly, with the opening of the Dubai Warehouse No. 5 in August 2025, enhancing its global supply chain network [5] - The company has over 130 overseas warehouses globally, ranking among the top in the industry, covering more than 20 countries and regions [5] - New international air routes have been established, including a direct flight from Shenzhen to Singapore, strengthening logistics capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region [5] Technological Empowerment - The company is focusing on long-term strategies, leveraging technology to enhance its services, with R&D investment reaching 2.956 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of approximately 300 million yuan year-on-year [1][6] - JD Logistics has upgraded its logistics technology platform "Super Brain" to version 2.0 and launched the self-developed "Wolf Pack" robotics series, deployed in over 20 provinces in China and more than 10 countries globally [6]

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a total revenue of 55.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [2][3] - The international business segment emerged as a significant highlight, with rapid growth in overseas supply chain solutions and express services [2][6] - A major leadership change occurred as Wang Zhenhui replaced Hu Wei as the CEO, aligning with the company's strategy to promote automation and AI technology [2][8] Financial Performance - JD Logistics achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.02 billion yuan, down from 2.573 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - Integrated supply chain revenue reached 30.1 billion yuan, up 45.8% year-on-year, accounting for 54.7% of total revenue [3] - External integrated supply chain revenue was 8.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% increase [3] Customer Growth - The number of external integrated supply chain customers rose from 59,286 to 66,809, a net increase of 7,523 customers, representing a growth rate of 12.7% [3] - Average revenue per customer increased slightly from 132,800 yuan to 133,700 yuan [3] Business Expansion - JD Logistics is enhancing its global logistics network, having opened over 30 overseas warehouses in the first half of the year, totaling more than 130 worldwide [6][7] - The company has established a "2-3 day delivery" service circle in overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East [7] Technological Advancements - The company showcased its upgraded logistics technology during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, including the 2.0 version of its "Super Brain" and self-developed "Wolf Pack" products [8] - R&D investment increased by 15.9% year-on-year to 1.1 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to advancing logistics technology [8] Strategic Partnerships - JD Logistics deepened its strategic cooperation with a well-known electric vehicle brand, providing end-to-end logistics services in Dubai [6] - The acquisition of Dada Group for approximately 270 million USD aims to strengthen last-mile delivery capabilities [4]

Core Insights - JD.com's logistics arm, JD Logistics (JDL), is experiencing rapid growth, with Q2 2025 revenues reaching RMB 51.6 billion, a 16.6% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in both internal and external businesses [1][10] Group 1: Expansion and Strategy - The launch of JoyExpress in Saudi Arabia marks JDL's first self-operated express delivery service overseas, indicating a strategic push for international expansion, with plans to double overseas warehouse capacity by the end of 2025 [2][10] - JDL operates over 130 warehouses across 23 countries, managing over 1.3 million square meters of space, which enhances its global supply chain network [3][10] Group 2: Technological Advancements - JDL is focused on increasing capacity and efficiency through last-mile delivery enhancements and investments in automation and AI technologies, including the deployment of the "Zhilang" smart warehousing system in major Chinese cities [4] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - JDL's tech-driven model and expanding global reach position it favorably in a supply chain market projected to grow at an 11.2% compound annual rate through 2030, suggesting logistics strength will be a key driver for JD's long-term growth [5] - Alibaba's Cainiao and Amazon are significant competitors, with Alibaba leveraging a platform model and Amazon utilizing advanced robotics and a hybrid retail model to enhance efficiency and customer experience [6][7] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - JD.com shares have declined 2.9% year-to-date, contrasting with a 14.9% return in the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry [8] - JD.com is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.35X, significantly lower than the industry's 25.34X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD's full-year 2025 revenues is $183.33 billion, reflecting a 14.04% year-over-year growth, while earnings are projected at $2.68 per share, a 37.09% decline from 2024 [14]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported a total revenue of 51.56 billion RMB in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, with significant acceleration compared to the previous quarter [1] - The company has begun recruiting and managing full-time delivery personnel to support JD Group's food delivery services and launched its self-operated express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia [1] - Gross profit reached 5.48 billion RMB, up 4.3%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.13 billion RMB, an increase of 5.1% [1] Financial Dynamics - In Q2 2025, JD Logistics achieved a total revenue of 51.56 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth and a net profit margin of 5.0% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was 5.72 billion RMB, up 1.5% [1] - Capital expenditure for H1 was 2.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, accounting for 2.5% of revenue, down 0.2 percentage points [1] Business Dynamics - In H1 2025, JD Logistics expanded its overseas warehouses in multiple countries, including the US, UK, France, Poland, South Korea, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia, now covering 23 countries and regions globally [1] - The launch of "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia offers local consumers delivery services with options for cash on delivery and expedited delivery [1] Profit Forecast - The company expects Q3 revenue growth to reach 20%, with food delivery services contributing positively [2] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 218.1 billion RMB, 258.5 billion RMB, and 278.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 18.5%, and 7.7% respectively [2] - The growth logic is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, expansion into Alibaba channels, and international supply chain layout [2] Valuation - Based on a closing valuation of approximately 81.3 billion RMB, the projected price-to-sales (PS) ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.37, 0.31, and 0.29, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 9.8, 8.6, and 7.8 times [3] - Compared to competitors like SF Express and ZTO Express, JD Logistics is currently undervalued [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 98.532 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit of 2.959 billion yuan, up 15.27% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, JD Logistics reported a net profit of 2.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.580 billion yuan, up 13.96% [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 3.339 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - Revenue growth accelerated, with H1 2025 revenue growth of 14.1%, surpassing the 11.0% growth in H1 2024 and the 9.7% growth for the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 2: Revenue Sources - Revenue from JD Group reached 32.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, while revenue from external customers was 66.07 billion yuan, up 10.2% [1] - The proportion of revenue from external customers decreased slightly to 67.1% from 69.4% in the same period last year [1] Group 3: Customer Growth and Cost Structure - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased by 14.5% to 73,700, an improvement from the 5.9% growth in the same period last year [2] - Average revenue per customer remained stable at 239,000 yuan [2] - Operating costs rose to 77.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, slightly outpacing revenue growth [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin slightly declined from 9.8% to 9.0% due to higher employee compensation and outsourcing costs, which grew by 17.1% and 19.2% respectively [2] - The company anticipates that profit margins will improve as scale effects materialize [2] Group 5: Technological Innovation and International Expansion - JD Logistics' self-developed "Smart Wolf" solution has entered a new phase of nationwide replication, enhancing order processing efficiency [2] - The company has expanded its overseas warehouse coverage to 23 countries and regions, launching the self-operated express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia [3] - The overseas business is expected to continue growing as the company leverages its logistics network and integrated supply chain capabilities [3] Group 6: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 6.85 billion, 7.91 billion, and 8.95 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics has demonstrated strong growth in its integrated supply chain solutions, with significant revenue increases and improved profitability in the first half of 2025, driven by market expansion and efficiency optimization [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, JD Logistics reported a revenue increase of 14.1% year-on-year, reaching 98.5 billion yuan (approximately 13.7 billion USD) [1]. - The integrated supply chain (ISC) solutions business generated 50.1 billion yuan, accounting for over half of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1]. - Non-IFRS profit for the first half was 3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase, primarily due to improved resource utilization efficiency [3]. Group 2: Customer and Market Expansion - The number of external ISC customers grew to 73,713, marking a 14.5% increase, with an average revenue per external customer of approximately 239,000 yuan [1]. - In Q2, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 51.6 billion yuan, contributing about 15% to JD Group's total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [3]. Group 3: Operational Developments - The company has expanded its self-operated warehouses in various countries, including the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Vietnam, enhancing its global logistics services [4]. - JD Logistics has launched its self-operated B2C express service, JoyExpress, in Saudi Arabia, offering last-mile delivery with same-day or next-day service [3]. - The deployment of the "Smart Wolf" automated warehousing solution aims to enhance order fulfillment efficiency and reduce manual operations in the supply chain [4].

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by integrated supply chain services, highlighting its strategic importance within JD's business landscape [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, JD Logistics achieved revenue of 98.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 2.96 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year [2]. - Integrated supply chain customer revenue accounted for over half of total revenue, growing by 19.9% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - Integrated supply chain revenue reached 50.11 billion yuan in the first half, with a growth rate of 19.9%, significantly contributing to overall performance [5]. - External integrated supply chain customer revenue was 17.6 billion yuan, marking a 14.7% increase, with the number of external customers exceeding 70,000, up 14.5% [5]. - Other customer revenue, including express and freight services, totaled 48.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [8]. International Expansion - JD Logistics has made substantial investments in overseas operations, including launching a self-operated express brand, JoyExpress, in Saudi Arabia [8]. - The company has initiated a global network plan focusing on overseas warehouses, international routes, and express service capabilities [9]. - As of June 30, 2025, JD Logistics operated 10 dedicated cargo aircraft and opened several international freight routes [9]. Workforce and Costs - As of June 30, 2025, JD Logistics employed over 660,000 delivery personnel, including full-time riders [8]. - Total human resource expenditure reached 95.7 billion yuan over the past 12 months [8]. Future Outlook - The company is exploring potential new growth drivers beyond integrated supply chain and express services, with a focus on overseas market strategies [11]. - The challenges and opportunities in international markets are expected to shape JD Logistics' future growth trajectory [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Logistics [4] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 98.532 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 2.959 billion yuan, up 15.27% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to strong internal customer revenue growth, with revenue from JD Group increasing by 22.9% to 32.46 billion yuan, while external customer revenue grew by 10.2% to 66.07 billion yuan [1][2] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased by 14.5% to 73,700, with average revenue per customer remaining stable at 239,000 yuan [2] - Gross margin slightly decreased from 9.8% to 9.0% due to increased personnel and outsourcing costs, which grew by 17.1% and 19.2% respectively [2] - The company is focusing on technological innovation and overseas expansion, with its overseas warehouses covering 23 countries and regions, and the launch of its self-operated express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia [3] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, JD Logistics reported an adjusted net profit of 3.339 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, with Q2 adjusted net profit at 2.588 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 6.85 billion, 7.91 billion, and 8.95 billion yuan respectively [3][10] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 203.84 billion, 218.63 billion, and 233.81 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.49%, 7.26%, and 6.95% respectively [10]