【摩根大通预计美联储12月将降息 改变之前按兵不动的预测】智通财经11月27日电，摩根大通经济学 家预计美联储下个月将降息，改变了之前认为降息将推迟到明年1月份的预测。由美国首席经济学家 Michael Feroli领衔的团队周三表示，来自关键美联储官员——尤其是纽约联储行长John Williams——支 持短期内降息的言论，促使他们重新评估降息路径。因政府停摆而姗姗来迟的9月份非农就业报告上周 发布后，摩根大通曾预测美联储12月份将维持利率不变。 美联储将于12月9日和10日在华盛顿举行货币 政策会议。摩根大通目前预测美联储将在12月和1月均降息25个基点。 ...

来源：滚动播报 摩根大通调整预测，认为美联储将在 12 月降息。 ...

“JPMorgan Chase threw me out of the bank,” says Bitcoin app Strike CEO Jack Mallers after the bank abruptly closed his personal accounts. When he asked why, he says the only answer was, “We aren’t allowed to tell you.” Mallers then framed the letter. https://t.co/I5W2D0qW0E ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to potentially reach $240,000 in the long term, as per a recent JPMorgan analysis of the asset's market structure [1][4] - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a shift, with BTC's price declining from a peak of $126,000 in early October to around $82,000 in November, stabilizing near $86,610 at the time of the report [1] Market Dynamics - Analysts at JPMorgan noted that the crypto market is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than Bitcoin's historical four-year halving cycle, which previously indicated major bull runs [2][4] - The transition of crypto from a venture capital-like ecosystem to a macro asset class is highlighted, with institutional liquidity playing a significant role in stabilizing market flows and anchoring long-term prices [3] Price Influences - Cryptocurrency prices are now more affected by broader economic trends rather than the predictable halving cycle of Bitcoin, suggesting a shift in how these assets are perceived and traded [4] - Despite the structural changes, cryptocurrencies are described as "liquid yet structurally inefficient" markets, where uneven liquidity can lead to significant price volatility [5] Investment Products - JPMorgan has introduced a Bitcoin-linked structured note tied to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), offering investors potential uncapped upside through 2028 if BTC experiences a significant rally [6] - The structured product includes a mechanism for early redemption with a minimum 16% return if IBIT meets a preset price by the end of 2026, and offers leveraged exposure with a potential return of 1.5 times the principal if IBIT exceeds the bank's 2028 target [6]

“Bankless” was a meme until JPM made it a lifestyle choice for our head of marketing @hpayne_writer.This is why we build open, permissionless finance.The Block (@TheBlock__):JPMorgan Chase shuts ShapeShift employee’s business account, says his personal account will be next https://t.co/0gsvAgMbgc ...

Core Insights - The interest-rate markets are experiencing increased trading activities, with expectations for continued opportunities into 2026 due to macroeconomic factors [1] - Major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are projected to see rising fixed-income trading revenues in the upcoming quarters [2] - Divergent interest rate policies among global central banks are prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios, leading to heightened trading activity [4][5] Company Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, JPMorgan's fixed-income market revenues rose 14% year-over-year to $17.2 billion [3] - Bank of America reported a 9.6% year-over-year increase in its fixed-income, currencies, and commodities trading revenues [3] - Goldman Sachs experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in its fixed-income trading revenues [3] Market Dynamics - Rising fiscal deficits are leading governments to issue more bonds, increasing trading volumes in the bond market [7] - A steepening yield curve, where long-term interest rates rise faster than short-term rates, is driving various trading behaviors such as hedging and speculation [8] - The increase in fixed-income trading activities is expected to benefit major dealers like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America [6]

在美联储议息会议前发布的任何经济数据都在引发市场的关注。今日美国发布的周度初请失业金人数下降，表明就业情况并未恶化。虽然机构普遍预期， 美联储12月降息的概率非常大，但也有机构认为，美联储仍有机会暂停降息。 失业数据好于预期 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至11月22日当周，初请失业金人数经季节调整后减少6000人，至21.6万人。经济学家此前预计，上周初请失业金人数 为22.5万人。 美国初请失业金人数（百万人）、续请失业金人数（百万人）和基准利率走势 初请失业金是美国衡量劳动力市场状况的核心指标，特指统计周期内首次申请失业保险救济金的人数，由美国劳工部每周四定期发布。该指标通过追踪新 失业者申领救济的动态，直接反映企业裁员趋势和就业市场短期波动，被视为经济周期的先行指标。由于本周四是感恩节假期，该报告提前一天发布。 此外，续请失业金人数（衡量正在领取失业金人数的指标）则在前一周微升至196万人。自9月以来，续请失业金人数总体呈上升趋势，目前仍接近疫情后 劳动力市场复苏时期的水平。 （文章来源：证券时报） 德国商业银行报告指出，周三公布的美国周度初请失业金数据因其他劳动力市场数据缺失而获得额外关注。但由于 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan is shifting from traditional spot ETFs to complex Bitcoin-linked derivatives, indicating a new trading approach for Bitcoin amid the upcoming halving cycle [1] - The newly filed structured note linked to BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF promises significant returns but carries the risk of total principal loss [2][3] Summary by Sections Structured Note Details - The proposed note offers 16% fixed returns if IBIT reaches JPMorgan's price target by the end of 2026 and over 50% returns if the target is met by 2028 [3][6] - A critical risk is that if the ETF drops more than 30% at any point before maturity, investors could lose their entire principal [3][4] Market Dynamics - The transition from spot ETFs to derivatives reflects a broader trend among Wall Street institutions, focusing on contracts that depend on ETF performance rather than direct ownership of Bitcoin [4] - The structured note is categorized as high-yield/high-volatility, typically reserved for sophisticated clients, utilizing mechanisms like barriers and auto-call triggers [5] Risk and Return Mechanics - The note features a 1.5x upside, resembling a leveraged derivative payoff, with a 30% downside barrier that mirrors derivative-style risk protection [7]

RT 100% Strategy (@StrategyMaxi)JPMorgan messed with the wrong man. 💀It's Saylor.Instead of working with Strategy, they attacked him.Saylor played a reverse UNO:- Bombshell Epstein connections among JPMorgan executives- Mobilizing retail to strike back- HODL BTC to short squeezeStand with Saylor! https://t.co/lyYRiblHvG ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, forecasting it to reach 7,500 by the end of 2026, with potential to exceed 8,000 if the Federal Reserve implements aggressive rate cuts, indicating an 18% rally from the current closing value of 6,765 [1][4]. Economic Drivers - Key drivers of market momentum include resilient economic growth, accelerated technological investment, and favorable policy conditions [3]. - The adoption of artificial intelligence is leading to record corporate capital expenditure, alongside rising shareholder distributions and supportive fiscal measures [3][5]. Earnings Projections - JPMorgan projects U.S. corporate earnings to grow by 13–15% over the next two years, which supports their baseline target of 7,500 and the potential for exceeding 8,000 under aggressive monetary easing scenarios [4][6]. Valuation Justification - Elevated valuations in technology and AI-driven sectors are considered justified due to expected productivity gains, structural market shifts, and increasing shareholder returns [5]. Market Sentiment - Other Wall Street analysts maintain a slightly more conservative yet optimistic stance, with Oppenheimer Asset Management raising its year-end target to 7,100 and UBS Global Research projecting a 2026 year-end level of 7,500 [7][8].