来源：滚动播报 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙：我"绝无可能"成为美联储主席。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported a decline in fourth-quarter net revenues, but earnings exceeded analyst expectations, with shares down over 1% in pre-market trading [1] - The decline in revenues was attributed to a markdown related to the transfer of Apple's credit-card program to JPMorgan Chase, which was offset by a $2.48 billion reduction in provisions for credit losses, contributing a net $2.12 billion boost to earnings [1] Financial Performance - The global banking and markets division showed strength, with trading activity boosted by volatile market conditions in 2025, influenced by U.S. trade policy shifts and concerns over AI-related equity valuations [2] - Equities trading revenue increased by 25% year over year to $4.31 billion, while fixed income, currencies, and commodities revenue rose by 12% to $3.11 billion, driven by demand for interest rate and commodities products [2] - Investment banking fees grew by 25% to $2.58 billion, reflecting stronger advisory activity amid high merger and acquisition volumes despite ongoing market uncertainty [3] - Overall group-wide net revenues decreased by 3% to $13.45 billion, with earnings per share reported at $14.01, significantly above analyst expectations of $11.48 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Financial-sector ETFs have shown resilience, rebounding due to gains in major Wall Street banks despite policy uncertainties related to credit card interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is trading near recent highs, supported by significant gains in shares of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup [2]. - The XLF ETF experienced a boost from its heavy exposure to major banks, while other ETFs like the Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH) and iShares U.S. Financials ETF (IYF) also benefited from strong performances in diversified banking and capital markets [4]. - The broader financial ETFs gained almost 2% on Thursday, indicating their ability to absorb short-term headline risks [6]. Group 2: Market Influences - President Trump's comments on capping credit card interest rates at 10% created initial volatility in bank stocks, but investors refocused on the strong earnings and improving fundamentals of large-cap financials [3]. - Optimism in the financial sector has been driven by robust results from Wall Street's investment banking activities, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reporting significant profit growth and record revenues [5]. - Major financial institutions are seen as stabilizing elements in the market, with expected deals and increased trading revenues potentially acting as catalysts for financial ETFs [7].

Core Insights - The earnings season commenced with the four largest U.S. banks reporting mixed results, leading to a decline in their stock prices by 5% to 7% due to concerns over a proposed political measure [1][2][8] Group 1: Earnings Performance - JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America exceeded both revenue and earnings estimates, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo surpassed earnings but fell short on revenue [2] - Despite some business lines underperforming, the diversified nature of these banks allowed strengths in other areas to offset weaknesses [2] Group 2: Political Proposals Impacting the Industry - A significant concern for the banks is President Trump's proposal to impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, which would require legislative action [3] - The Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) was reintroduced, mandating that large banks provide merchants with a choice of at least two payment networks, potentially lowering prices by 1% to 2% and saving consumers $150 monthly [4][5] Group 3: Financial Implications - The proposed cap on credit card interest rates could result in a substantial financial impact on banks, reducing interest income from loans and affecting revenue from swipe fees [6] - An analysis indicated that a 10% cap could save consumers $100 billion annually in interest payments, directly affecting banks like JPMorgan Chase, which generated approximately $28 billion from card services in 2025 [7]

Core Insights - United Wholesale Mortgage retained the top position in mortgage origination volume for 2024, continuing its lead over Rocket Mortgage from the previous year [1] - The top 10 mortgage lenders accounted for over 21% of all U.S. home loans originated and nearly 26% of the total dollar volume of loans for the year [2] Top 10 Mortgage Lenders - The top 10 lenders by loan origination volume in 2024 are as follows: 1. United Wholesale Mortgage: 366,078 loans, $139.7 billion [5] 2. Rocket Mortgage: 361,071 loans, $97.6 billion [9] 3. CrossCountry Mortgage: 101,894 loans, $39.4 billion [10] 4. Bank of America: 83,143 loans, $29.5 billion [11] 5. Navy Federal Credit Union: 82,019 loans, $17.7 billion [14] 6. LoanDepot: Data not provided 7. Chase: Data not provided 8. Guild Mortgage: Data not provided 9. Fairway Independent Mortgage: Data not provided 10. U.S. Bank: Data not provided [3] Customer Satisfaction Ratings - Bank of America received a high customer satisfaction rating for mortgage servicing and an above-average rating for mortgage origination according to J.D. Power in 2025 [9] - Navy Federal Credit Union achieved high customer satisfaction ratings for both mortgage origination and servicing, although it is not eligible for official rankings [14]

Representing the largest U.S. financial centers and regional banks, Invesco KBW Bank ETF performed exceptionally well over the last year, delivering a 27.4% return to shareholders. The top five banks have the largest weight in the portfolio – Goldman Sachs Group, Wells Fargo & Co, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Bank of America. Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase already delivered their results earlier this week. Let's examine which bank has the lead. More importantly, which bank has t ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan predicts that global capital inflows into digital assets will exceed the record $130 billion achieved in 2025, despite a decline in crypto markets during the last quarter of the year [1] - The bank's analysis indicates that annual inflows increased by one-third compared to 2024, driven by various factors including retail demand and corporate treasury purchases [1][4] Group 1: Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - The bank aggregates data on crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, venture capital fundraising, and corporate treasury purchases to assess market trends [2] - Global capital movement into digital assets is a significant indicator of crypto market momentum, influencing price trends and liquidity across tokens and related companies [3] - The direction of crypto investments is increasingly shaped by regulatory conditions, macroeconomic factors, and the availability of investment vehicles like ETPs and futures [3] Group 2: Sources of Inflows - Last year's inflows were primarily driven by retail demand, particularly in bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with purchases by corporate treasuries [4] - Corporate treasuries contributed over half of the total inflows, approximately $68 billion, with Strategy (MSTR) accounting for about $23 billion of that total [5] - Other companies increased their digital asset purchases significantly, rising to around $45 billion from just $8 billion the previous year [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The momentum in digital asset treasury purchases slowed significantly after October, indicating a pullback from institutional investors compared to 2024 [7] - Venture capital activity in the crypto space was muted, with a modest increase in funding but a decline in deal counts, reflecting a shift towards later-stage investments [8] - Some capital that would typically be allocated to venture deals was redirected towards liquid corporate treasury strategies, indicating a preference for immediate liquidity over long-term investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The major U.S. banks reported significant profit growth in Q4, driven by sustained borrower demand, indicating a robust economic environment and optimistic future profitability for lending institutions [1]. Group 1: Bank Performance - Bank of America reported an 8% year-over-year increase in average loans, with net interest income soaring to a record $15.9 billion [1]. - JPMorgan Chase experienced a 9% growth in average loans, reflecting strong lending activity as a positive indicator for the banking sector and overall economy [1]. - Citigroup's average loan amount grew by 7% in Q4, supported by its market and personal banking services [2]. - Wells Fargo's commercial loans surged by 12% in Q4, with increased revenue from auto loans and credit cards [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Analysts from S&P Global expressed optimism for sustained economic growth into 2026, attributing this to macroeconomic stability and favorable lending conditions, with a projected 5.3% loan growth by the end of 2025 [2]. - Bank of America anticipates a moderate single-digit percentage loan growth rate in 2026, despite challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - Potential obstacles for lending institutions include geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding a proposed cap on credit card interest rates at 10% [3]. - Executives expressed concerns that such a cap could lead to a contraction in lending, negatively impacting economic growth [4]. - Citigroup's CFO noted that assessing the potential impact of the interest rate cap is premature due to the lack of specific implementation details [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Bank executives emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for economic stability, with calls for the next Fed chair to maintain this independence [5]. - Concerns were raised about political interference in the Fed, which could lead to increased inflation expectations and higher interest rates over time [5].

Group 1 - President Trump advocates for lower interest rates, dismissing concerns from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon regarding political interference with the Federal Reserve [1] - Trump criticizes Dimon's stance on a proposed 10% interest rate cap on credit cards, emphasizing the need to protect consumers from high interest rates [2] - Dimon defends the Federal Reserve's independence, warning that political interference could lead to inflation and increased interest rates, which contradicts Trump's objectives [3] Group 2 - The Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raises concerns among Republicans, suggesting it could lead to higher interest rates instead of lower ones [4] - JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter earnings report indicates a resilient U.S. economy, with consumer spending remaining strong despite a 7% year-over-year decline in net income [5] - The bank's CFO warns that Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates could negatively impact credit markets and reshape credit services, particularly affecting subprime borrowers [6]

Group 1 - The fourth quarter earnings season has commenced with reports from Delta Air Lines and JPMorgan Chase, with more bank earnings expected later in the week [1][5] - Wall Street analysts predict an 8.3% earnings per share growth rate for S&P 500 companies in Q4, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth if realized [2] - Analysts have increased earnings expectations for tech companies, which have been significant contributors to earnings growth in recent quarters, with a prior estimate of 7.2% for Q4 [3] Group 2 - The earnings season will test the improved stock market breadth observed at the beginning of 2026, with ongoing themes such as artificial intelligence and economic policies from the Trump administration influencing market dynamics [4] - Major financial companies scheduled to report earnings this week include Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley [5]