让我们把时间拨回四十年前。 彼时，美国麻省总医院的几位科学家正在解剖一条被他们称为"世界上最丑鱼类"的琵琶鱼，而纽约一家 退伍军人医院的医生则在美国西南的荒漠捕捉毒蜥蜴。 在琵琶鱼身上，科学家分离并鉴定出了琵琶鱼胰高血糖素原前体，发现琵琶鱼存在由两个不同非等位基 因编码的胰高血糖素原——除了胰高血糖素，它们还各自包含一段胰高血糖素相关序列；而在吉拉毒蜥 的毒液中，科学家分离出了一种氨基酸序列与GLP-1相似的多肽——exendin-4。 exendin-4的人工合成版艾塞那肽（商品名：Byetta；中文名：百泌达）由Amylin公司研发，后被礼来相 中联合开发，于2005年获得美国FDA批准上市，成为全球第一款被批准上市的GLP-1药物。 本文来自微信公众号：锦缎研究院，作者：黄希文，题图来自：AI生成 礼来和诺和诺德围绕GLP-1长达二十年的缠斗由此开始。 礼来替尔泊肽的竞争下，诺和诺德依靠司美格鲁肽建立起的先发优势已经荡然无存。 7月29日，诺和诺德下调了2025年业绩指引，预计2025财年销售额与利润增速大幅下降。这是诺和诺德 今年第二次下修业绩预期，也意味着其过去三年的高增长面临拐点。业绩指引下调后的 ...

Eli Lilly was nearly a $1 trillion company. Now it’s facing missed targets, tariff threats and investor doubts https://t.co/hUTVcfpEeQ ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly is expected to report earnings of $5.59 per share and sales of $14.7 billion on August 7, 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous year's earnings of $3.92 per share and sales of $11.3 billion [3] - Historically, Eli Lilly's stock has shown a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, with a 56% decrease rate over the past five years and a median decline of -3.1% [2][7] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly has a market capitalization of $685 billion, with $49 billion in revenue, $20 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $11 billion over the past twelve months [4] - The company has recorded 18 earnings data points in the last five years, with 8 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 44% occurrence of positive returns [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and analyze immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide their strategies [6] - A correlation analysis between short-term and medium-term returns can help traders identify suitable trades, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [8] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Eli Lilly's stock reaction post-earnings, with historical data indicating that peer stock returns may impact pricing ahead of the earnings announcement [9]

LLY reverses early weakness and climbs 1.8% If you want to stay updated on the latest options trades for LLY, Benzinga Pro gives you real-time options trades alerts. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs and include firms, like https://tradepulse.net/? utm_source=Benzinga&utm_medium=Article&utm_campaign=brand_awareness_Aug2025 which are responsible for parts of the data within this article. After Market Close UPDATE: The price at the time of the Power Inflow was $755.87. The returns on the Hi ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 ▍84周的 中国 研究 结果已经公布 ，替尔泊肽帮助患者减去29.2公斤 替尔泊肽通过激活人体内的GIP和GLP-1受体，减少热量摄入，调节食欲，降低体重和体脂，同时调节脂肪的代谢。 2022年5月，替尔泊肽获得美国FDA的批准，每周注射一次，结合饮食控制和运动，有助于改善成人2型糖尿病患者的血糖控制。此外，其在减 重领域的研究也已展开。 2019年，替尔泊肽的SURMOUNT系列III期临床试验启动，包括4项全球研究、1项中国研究和1项日本研究，共招募了超过5000名肥胖或超重 患者。SURMOUNT-1和SURMOUNT-2研究已经取得了积极的结果。 最近公布的SURMOUNT-3研究（NCT04657016）是一项多中心、随机、双盲、平行、安慰剂对照的研究，旨在评估替尔泊肽与安慰剂在 BMI≥30kg/m²或BMI≥27kg/m²且至少有一种合并症的非2型糖尿病成人患者中的减重效果和安全性。 这项研究纳入了来自美国、巴西和阿根廷的806名患者，他们以1:1的比例随机分配到替尔泊肽（15mg或10mg）和安慰剂组。主要的研究终点 是72周时体重相对于基线的降低百分比，以 ...

7月底，曾凭司美格鲁肽引领减肥药神话的诺和诺德股价暴跌30%，这也是该百年药企巨头有史以来最大单日跌幅。 前有百年对手礼来的反超，后有美国复方药房的价格战搅局，最早登顶的诺和诺德如今举步维艰，大幅下调全年销售和利润预期，近乎腰斩。 号称千亿美元规模的减肥药市场已然是一片红海，而各大主流减肥药的产品效果都有何区别？从双雄争霸到百花齐放，减肥药市场上新增了哪些玩家？面 临合作翻车、专利即将到期等多重夹击的诺和诺德临场换帅，但资本会认可这位新CEO吗？ 我们深入结合最新的财报数据，一起来看看危机四伏的减肥药混战下半场。 但真正让投资人恐慌的，是诺和诺德这个原本的"赢家"似乎已经没有后招了。 从现在回头看，这次崩盘并非毫无预警。过去一年，诺和诺德已经蒸发了几百亿市值，它押注的第二代新药CagriSema并没有达到市场期待的减重效果； 同时，它也在与礼来的竞争中不断丢分。 2024年，诺和诺德凭借先发者优势，让Wegovy和Ozempic两款药物席卷了全球市场，亲手缔造了减肥药这个市场。 分析师估计，减肥药的年均销售额可能高达1500亿，但现在华尔街开始意识到一个更残酷的现实：减肥药需求的增长，并不代表诺和诺德的产品就 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Pharmaceuticals** industry, specifically the **Diabetes/Obesity** segment, with an emphasis on the **GLP-1** market [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The data from IQVIA's dynamic retail data provides insights into market share changes among companies, particularly in the GLP-1 market [2]. - **Novo Nordisk's Earnings**: Novo Nordisk is expected to report its 2Q25 earnings on August 6, 2025, with estimates indicating a **-2%** deviation from Bloomberg consensus, primarily due to lower expectations for **Wegovy** [2]. - **Sales Growth Guidance**: The current sales growth estimate for FY25 is **+15%** at constant exchange rates (CER), which is below the midpoint of the guidance range of **+13-21%**. A further guidance cut is considered unlikely [2]. - **Key Metrics**: - **Ozempic**: Total prescriptions (TRx) increased by approximately **327k** (+4.6% quarter-over-quarter) to **~7.51 million** scripts in 2Q25. However, new to brand prescriptions (NBRx) declined by **-10.6%** [3]. - **Rybelsus**: TRx increased by **~17.8k** (+2.6% q/q) to **~696k** scripts, with NBRx decreasing by **-4.4%** [6]. - **Mounjaro**: TRx grew by **~1.10 million** scripts (+18.2% q/q) to **~7.1 million** scripts, with NBRx growth at **+7.7%** [6]. - **Wegovy**: TRx increased by **~239k** scripts (+9.2% q/q) to **2.83 million** scripts, with NBRx growing by **+14.4%** [6]. - **Zepbound**: TRx grew by **~1.57 million** scripts (+47.3% q/q) to **~4.90 million** scripts, with NBRx increasing by **+35.8%** [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Switching Dynamics**: The report highlights significant switching dynamics among GLP-1 drugs, with **Ozempic**, **Rybelsus**, and **Mounjaro** seeing substantial switches from metformin and other GLP-1 agonists [6][10][11][12]. - **Market Share**: Ozempic's TRx market share within the GLP-1 class is now at **43.4%**, while Mounjaro's share increased to **41.3%** [3][12]. - **Wegovy's Performance**: Despite a growth in TRx, Wegovy's NBRx share is still lower than that of Zepbound, indicating competitive pressures [42][43]. - **Regulatory Approvals**: Zepbound received FDA approval for treating obesity and has shown promising results in various trials, indicating its potential impact on the market [43]. Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the GLP-1 market, highlighting the competitive landscape, sales growth expectations, and the dynamics of prescription switching among key products. The insights gathered will be crucial for investors and stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding their positions in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in diabetes and obesity treatments.

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has shown significant clinical progress and financial results, positioning itself as the largest healthcare player globally, with a market cap of approximately $684 billion as of August 1, and has the potential to reach a $2 trillion valuation within seven years [1]. Group 1: Weight Management Market - The weight management medicines market is rapidly growing, projected to reach $150 billion in sales by 2035, up from $15 billion last year [2]. - Eli Lilly's weight loss therapy, Zepbound, has proven to be highly effective, outperforming its main competitor, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, in clinical trials, contributing to substantial revenue growth for the company [3][10]. - Eli Lilly is addressing the limitations of Zepbound, such as its weekly injection requirement, by developing orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medicine, which has shown promising weight loss results in diabetes patients [6][5]. Group 2: Pipeline and Product Diversification - Eli Lilly's pipeline includes innovative products like bimagrumab, which can mitigate muscle loss associated with weight loss therapies, showing significant weight reduction in combination with Wegovy [8]. - The company is also developing retatrutide, which mimics the action of three gut hormones, potentially making it more effective than Zepbound if approved [9]. - Beyond weight management, Eli Lilly has a strong portfolio in diabetes, oncology, and immunology, with products like Mounjaro, Verzenio, and Ebglyss, indicating a diversified and robust pipeline [11][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Outlook - Eli Lilly's forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 37, which is high compared to the healthcare industry's average of 16.5, but justified by its rapid sales and profit growth, along with a strong pipeline and dividend program [13]. - The company is expected to outperform the market and achieve the necessary growth to reach a $2 trillion valuation by the end of 2032 [13].

Industry Overview - The second-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is in full swing, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Gilead Sciences, and Novo Nordisk set to announce results [1] - The earnings season began mid-July with Johnson & Johnson reporting strong results, exceeding estimates for both earnings and sales [1] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 43.49% [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $13.78 billion and 58 cents per share, respectively [6] - Higher sales from products like Vyndaqel and Padcev are expected to offset weaker sales from Prevnar and Ibrance [8] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly's performance has been mixed, exceeding earnings expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 6.69% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings stands at $14.75 billion and $5.61 per share, respectively [11] - Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound is anticipated to drive top-line growth [12] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.34% [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $8.86 billion and $5.26 per share, respectively [14] - Sales growth is expected to be driven by products like Evenity and Repatha, despite price declines due to higher rebates [15] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Gilead's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 16.48% [17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $6.95 billion and $1.95 per share, respectively [17] - Increased demand for HIV therapies like Biktarvy is expected to boost sales [18] Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo Nordisk's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in one of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 0.02% [20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $11.79 billion and 93 cents per share, respectively [20] - The company lowered its 2025 sales and operating profit growth outlook due to weaker momentum in key markets for its semaglutide-based drugs [21]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Eli Lilly (LLY) to report quarterly earnings of $5.61 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.1%, with revenues projected at $14.75 billion, up 30.5% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.5% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [1][2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Cyramza' at $246.20 million, a decrease of 1.1% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Humulin' is expected to be $206.10 million, down 7.8% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Humalog' is projected at $609.52 million, reflecting a decline of 3.5% from the previous year [4] - 'Net Sales- Forteo' is estimated at $62.76 million, down 10.2% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- International-Forteo' is forecasted at $34.28 million, a decrease of 11% [5] - 'Net Sales- Cyramza (ROW)' is expected to reach $130.32 million, down 1.9% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Sales- Emgality (ROW)' is projected at $42.01 million, indicating a significant decline of 22.8% [6] - 'Net Sales- International-Alimta' is estimated at $17.05 million, down 20.3% from the previous year [6] - 'Net Sales- US-Humulin' is expected to be $154.98 million, down 8.5% year-over-year [7] - 'Net Sales- Emgality (US)' is projected at $135.67 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% [7] - 'Net Sales- US-Humalog' is estimated at $412.17 million, down 5.2% year-over-year [7] - 'Net Sales- US-Forteo' is expected to reach $28.73 million, indicating a decline of 8.8% [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Lilly have returned -2.4%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [8]