Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marvell Technology (MRVL US) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $85.20 [7][8]. Core Insights - Marvell has significantly raised its forecast for the global accelerated computing chip market to $349 billion by 2028, an increase of 103%, driven by major cloud computing companies and emerging AI compute builders increasing their data center CAPEX [2]. - The company also revised its forecast for the AI custom chip market to $55.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a 29% increase, with custom chips expected to account for 25% of the AI computing chip market [2]. - Marvell aims to maintain a 20% market share in the data center potential market, which is projected to grow to $94 billion by 2028, up 26% from previous estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global accelerated computing chip market is expected to reach $349 billion by 2028, with XPU and XPU supporting chips projected to be $221 billion [2]. - The AI custom chip market is anticipated to grow to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a notable increase in the market for custom XPU supporting chips, expected to rise from $6 million in 2023 to $146 million by 2028 [2]. Competitive Advantage - Marvell has established a differentiated advantage in core IP technologies such as Serdes, custom SRAM, and custom HBM, enhancing its competitive position in custom chips and data center interconnect chips [3]. - The company has secured 18 AI custom chip projects, including five XPU projects, indicating strong engagement with major clients for next-generation projects [3]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Marvell are $2.53 billion for FY2026, $3.23 billion for FY2027, and $4.02 billion for FY2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The target price of $85.20 suggests a potential upside from the current closing price of $74.95, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift towards "customization" in the AI chip industry, highlighting that traditional general-purpose GPUs are no longer the sole solution as companies recognize the need for tailored AI chips to meet diverse application requirements [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major cloud giants like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are accelerating their self-developed chip initiatives to diversify beyond NVIDIA's solutions [2]. - The capital expenditure of the top four cloud providers is projected to reach approximately $1,500 billion in 2023, growing to over $2,000 billion in 2024 and exceeding $3,000 billion by 2025, with a significant portion allocated to custom chips [4][6]. - Emerging companies are also investing in their data infrastructure, indicating a broader trend towards customization beyond the traditional giants [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Broadcom focuses on large-scale integration and platform design, while Marvell pursues growth through strategic acquisitions, enhancing its technology portfolio [3]. - Marvell has established a unique position as an end-to-end custom silicon provider, integrating system architecture design, advanced IP technology, and comprehensive chip services [9][16]. - Marvell's recent investor event showcased its strategic advancements in custom AI infrastructure, revealing its full-stack capabilities from IP to customer projects [3][4]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The custom AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of $94 billion by 2028, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [6][8]. - The custom computing segment is the largest and fastest-growing part of this market, with the XPU market alone estimated at $40 billion and a CAGR of 47% [8][14]. - Marvell has secured 18 custom chip orders from major cloud providers, indicating a substantial potential lifetime revenue market of $75 billion [8][9]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Marvell's technology stack includes advanced manufacturing processes (5nm and 3nm), with plans for 2nm testing chips, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [9][21]. - The company emphasizes the importance of data movement in AI chip performance, with its SerDes technology achieving world-leading speeds of 448Gbps [24][26]. - Marvell's modular HBM architecture allows for greater flexibility and efficiency in AI chip design, significantly reducing power consumption and improving performance [30][32]. Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - Marvell's long-term collaboration with Microsoft has evolved into a strategic partnership, focusing on end-to-end optimization of AI infrastructure [34]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the custom AI chip market, leveraging its comprehensive capabilities to support the evolving needs of cloud service providers and AI model companies [34].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) [35][49]. Core Insights - The high-end custom ASIC chip market is projected to reach $30 billion by CY25, growing at a 30% CAGR, driven by the aggressive adoption of AI technologies [5][11]. - Broadcom and Marvell are positioned as market leaders, holding 55-60% and 15% market shares respectively, and are expected to dominate the ASIC market due to their strong design capabilities and extensive customer pipelines [8][11]. - The demand for custom ASICs is increasing as cloud/hyperscale companies seek differentiation, better performance, and lower costs compared to off-the-shelf solutions [9][11]. Summary by Sections Market Opportunity - The high-end ASIC market is estimated to be a $30 billion opportunity with a 30% CAGR, primarily fueled by the demand for AI compute accelerators [5][11]. - Custom AI ASICs are expected to account for 40% of the AI XPU/GPU market this year, indicating a significant shift towards custom solutions [19]. Company Performance - Broadcom is on track to generate approximately $19.5 billion in AI revenues this fiscal year, with expectations to exceed $31 billion next fiscal year, reflecting a 60% year-over-year growth [5][9]. - Marvell is ramping production of its first two AI ASIC programs and is projected to achieve $4 billion in AI revenue this year, up from $1.8 billion last year [10][11]. Design and Technology - Both Broadcom and Marvell possess advanced design capabilities, including the ability to handle complex chip designs with over 100 billion transistors, which is a key differentiator in the market [6][20]. - The emergence of custom ASICs is driving demand for EDA software and critical IP, benefiting companies like Synopsys, Cadence, and ARM [7][11]. Customer Engagement - Broadcom and Marvell have secured significant design wins with major cloud/hyperscale customers, ensuring a strong pipeline for future growth [23][32]. - The report highlights the collaborative nature of ASIC development, where cloud titans partner with semiconductor companies to leverage their design expertise and manufacturing capabilities [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant movements in the Hong Kong and US stock markets, focusing on various companies' performances and the impact of regulatory changes on specific sectors. Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Haitian Flavoring (03288) debuted with over a 3% increase, raising HKD 10 billion and holding a 6.2% global market share in soy sauce, leading the Chinese seasoning market with a 4.8% share [1] - Stablecoin concept stocks surged, with Lianlian Digital up 11%, Yika up 9%, and Zhong An Online up 8%, driven by the implementation of Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations [1] - Hezhima Intelligent (02533) rose over 3% as it plans to acquire an AI chip company to expand its automotive and edge AI product lines [1] - Delin Holdings (01709) increased over 3% with an expected annual profit growth of 10%-30% (to HKD 110-130 million) and its subsidiary Synaptic Technology securing tens of millions in A-round financing [1] - Jingtai Technology (02228) saw over a 4% rise, producing its first clinical candidate drug, PRMT5 inhibitor PE-0260, with clinical trials set to start in the second half of 2025 [1] - Gold stocks collectively fell, with Lingbao Gold and Zhu Feng Gold both down 4%, affected by a pullback in spot gold prices [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 4% after obtaining global rights for GlycoT's ADC technology, with positive outlooks for IBI363/343's international potential [1] - Longpan Technology (02465) increased over 6% due to policy support accelerating solid-state battery industrialization, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology allocating HKD 6 billion for special research [1] Group 2: Other Notable Movements - Simor International (06969) fell over 5% as shareholder Yiwei Lithium Energy announced a third reduction of 3.5% in its stake, dropping to 27% and losing control [2] - Fubo Group (03738) rose over 4% due to favorable policies for data asset REITs, with the company targeting annual AI business revenue in the million-dollar range [2] - Yadea Holdings (01585) increased over 4% with a projected 55% rise in H1 net profit to HKD 1.6 billion, driven by new national standards enhancing industry concentration [2] - Perfect Medical (01830) fell over 6% as medical beauty consumption shifted to Shenzhen and South Korea, with an expected 35% decline in annual profit [2] - Yunbai International (00030) surged over 15% after acquiring global distribution rights from its parent company Yunnan Baiyao, covering a full range of products including medicines and personal care [2] - Luk Fook Holdings (00590) dropped over 4% due to increased gold hedging losses from rising gold prices and high base effects from last year's acquisition of King of Gold [2] Group 3: US Stock Market Highlights - Brain Regen Technologies (RGC.US) fell over 18% after a 400% increase in the previous two days, as profit-taking occurred; the company focuses on liquid formulations for ADHD and autism [3] - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) rose over 7% after announcing a collaboration to develop AI power solutions and launching a 2nm custom SRAM chip with leading bandwidth and energy efficiency [3] - Circle (CRCL.US) surged over 33% after the US Senate passed a stablecoin bill, boosting the stock's value by 410% since its listing [3] - The rare earth sector continued to rise, with MP Materials up 4.9% and USA Rare Earth up 5.58%, driven by policy support for strategic resource demand [3] - Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) fell over 30% amid reports of a potential bankruptcy agreement, despite the silicon carbide market projected to reach USD 29 billion by 2030 [3] - Odyssey Marine (OMEX.US) rose over 11% after Trump signed an executive order to expedite deep-sea mining permits, with a 93% increase year-to-date [3] - Huya (HUYA.US) increased over 3% as the "HYPER eSports Carnival" is set to open in Chengdu, boosting platform traffic and commercialization expectations [3] Group 4: Additional Notable Movements - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) rose over 10%, with an 85% increase in June, partnering with Vodafone India to provide satellite connectivity to unconnected areas [4] - Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US) surged over 22% after being selected for Oracle's defense ecosystem, highlighting the strategic value of quantum encryption technology [4] - Aptevo (APVO.US) skyrocketed over 81% due to a new leukemia drug showing an 85% response rate in frontline treatment [4] - Upstart (UPST.US) rose over 10% after Bank of America raised its target price to USD 56, maintaining a "hold" rating as the credit tech platform's valuation recovers [4] - Coinbase (COIN.US) increased over 16% as it plans to apply to the SEC for "tokenized stocks," opening new growth opportunities in traditional equity on-chain [5]

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Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) has seen a significant stock price increase due to positive evaluations from top Wall Street analysts regarding its customized AI ASIC chip activities and potential market announcements [1][3] Group 1: Market Opportunities - Analysts from Evercore ISI predict that the new AI ASIC chip designs could ramp up quickly between 2026 and 2027, indicating strong future demand [1] - Marvell expects each customized AI chip design win to generate billions in lifecycle revenue within 1.5 to 2 years, while each XPU Attach win could contribute hundreds of millions within 2 to 4 years [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for customized data center chips has been raised to $94 billion, a 26% increase from last year's AI activities [3] Group 2: Financial Projections - Marvell has raised its financial targets, with analysts noting that the potential earnings per share could reach $8 by 2028, exceeding Wall Street estimates by 60% [4] - The company aims to capture at least 20% of the TAM, with over 50% of its data center revenue expected to come from AI ASIC-related demands [3][5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is identified as the long-term beneficiary of Marvell's AI activities, holding a dominant market share of approximately 60% in the AI ASIC sector, while Marvell holds 13% to 15% [6][7] - The AI ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, with major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon investing heavily in AI ASIC chips, indicating a shift in market dynamics away from GPU dominance [7]

Core Insights - Marvell's recent Custom AI Investor Day indicates a shift from "general GPU assembly" to "highly customized system-level collaboration" in AI chips, positioning the company as a key infrastructure partner in AI computing [1][2] - The projected total addressable market (TAM) for data centers in 2028 has been revised upward from $75 billion to $94 billion, with the custom computing (XPU) and its associated components market reaching $55 billion [1][3] Market Growth - Custom computing (XPU) and XPU Attach (supporting components) are identified as the fastest-growing sectors, with custom computing experiencing nearly 30% growth and interconnects growing approximately 37% over the past year [1][5] - The TAM for custom chips has been increased to $94 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35%, including $40 billion for custom XPU (CAGR of 47%) and $15 billion for XPU supporting components (CAGR of 90%) [3] Revenue Transition - Marvell anticipates a complete transition of cloud revenue to AI revenue, reflecting the deep integration of AI across all applications and cloud infrastructure, with cloud becoming the "factory" for AI [1][5] Customer Dynamics - Traditional cloud giants (Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google, Meta) remain primary customers, but emerging hyperscalers (e.g., xAI, Tesla) are beginning to build their own AI clusters and push for custom chips [6] - "Sovereign AI," driven by national initiatives for local AI infrastructure, is emerging as a new growth direction, prompting increased demand for custom AI chips globally [8] Project Pipeline - Marvell has secured 18 custom socket projects and is actively pursuing over 50 new project opportunities, with potential lifecycle revenue totaling $75 billion [10] - The company aims to achieve a 20% market share in the custom computing market by 2028, up from 13% currently, with previous shares below 5% [10] Technological Advancements - Marvell showcased several key technological breakthroughs, including 2nm custom SRAM with 17 times the bandwidth density of mainstream IP, self-developed HBM solutions, and advanced Die-to-Die interconnects [11][14]

Ashish Saran SVP, Investor Relations Forward-looking statements Except for statements of historical fact, this presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the federal securities laws) including, but not limited to, statements related to market trends and to the company's business and operations, business opportunities, growth strategy and expectations, and financial targets and plans, that involve risks and uncertainties. Words such as "anticipates," "expects," "intends," "plans, ...

Marvell Technology (MRVL) Investor Event Summary Industry Overview - Focus on the custom silicon opportunity within the data center end market [3][4] - Custom silicon is identified as a major growth driver in the semiconductor industry [8][11] - Significant increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) by top US hyperscalers, growing from $150 billion in 2023 to over $300 billion in 2025 [12][13] Key Insights and Arguments - The trend towards custom silicon has accelerated, with emerging hyperscalers also investing heavily in their own data centers [14][15] - Analysts forecast total data center CapEx to exceed $1 trillion by 2028, with a significant portion allocated to silicon [17][18] - Marvell's total addressable market (TAM) for custom silicon has grown from $75 billion to $94 billion, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [19][20] - Custom compute is the largest and fastest-growing segment within Marvell's data center opportunity [21] - The custom XPU attach market is expected to grow at an impressive 90% CAGR, indicating a rapid increase in demand for specialized infrastructure [25][26] Financial Performance and Projections - Marvell's data center revenue was approximately $4.2 billion, with expectations for custom silicon to grow to over 50% of cloud AI revenue over time [50][54] - The company aims to capture a 20% market share in the custom compute segment by 2028, up from less than 5% in 2023 [55][56] - Marvell has won 18 different sockets in the custom compute market, indicating strong customer traction and future revenue potential [32][34] Competitive Positioning - Marvell positions itself as a full-service custom silicon provider, offering end-to-end solutions that include system architecture, design IP, and manufacturing support [39][90] - The company emphasizes the importance of pretested, pre-integrated IP and architecture support to meet the rapidly evolving technology landscape [40] - Partnerships with major cloud providers like AWS and Microsoft are highlighted as critical to Marvell's success in the custom silicon market [44][48] Emerging Trends and Innovations - The diversification of AI workloads is driving the need for specialized infrastructure, leading to increased customization in silicon design [71][72] - Marvell is actively pursuing over 50 additional opportunities in the custom silicon market, representing a lifetime revenue potential of $75 billion [34][59] - The company is focused on advanced packaging and high-performance analog mixed-signal IP to support the growing demands of AI applications [42][43] Conclusion - Marvell is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for custom silicon in the data center market, with a robust strategy and significant customer engagement [39][60] - The company anticipates continued growth and expansion in its market share, driven by its innovative technology and strong partnerships [90][92]