Summit Insights分析师Kinngai Chan表示，迈威尔科技对第三季度的疲弱业绩指引意味着其定制ASIC业 务将出现下滑，这令投资者感到意外。分析师表示："我们原本预期其定制ASIC业务的增长会加速，因 为该公司已经获得了多家超大规模客户的设计订单。但管理层却在谈论定制ASIC业务的'波动性'。" 迈威尔科技没有说明该业务表现疲软的原因，但Matthew Murphy表示，当大型云计算服务提供商建设 基础设施时，"波动性"是正常现象。 不过，Stifel分析师 Tore Svanberg表示，迈威尔科技在ASIC领域中仍处于有利地位，"但需要12-18个 月，这一业务才能实现更多元化，从而带来更持续的超预期表现和指引上调"。 智通财经APP获悉，ASIC(专用集成电路)巨头迈威尔科技(MRVL.US)公布的业绩指引不及预期令投资者 感到失望，导致该股股价周四盘后大跌超11%。迈威尔科技公布的财报显示，该公司Q2营收同比增长 58%至20.1亿美元，仅符合分析师预期。其中，数据中心业务营收同比增长69%至14.9亿美元，不及分 析师平均预期的15.1亿美元。调整后每股收益为0.67美元，同样仅符 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported record revenue of $2.01 billion for Q2, a 58% year-over-year increase, but only met expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price after the announcement [1][3] - The Q3 revenue guidance of $2.06 billion was slightly below analyst expectations of $2.11 billion, disappointing investors [3][4] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $2.01 billion, a 58% increase year-over-year, but aligned with Wall Street expectations [3] - Adjusted EPS was $0.67, also in line with analyst forecasts [3] - The company’s Q3 revenue guidance is $2.06 billion, which is lower than the expected $2.11 billion [3][4] Strategic Focus - The company has divested its automotive Ethernet business to focus more on AI opportunities and data center investments [4] - The data center segment currently contributes 75% of total revenue [4] Business Outlook - The growth of the custom chip business is expected to be "non-linear," with a potential strong performance in Q4 after a flat Q3 [5] - The company has updated its design achievements, with 18 multi-generation XPU and export add-on slots, and over 50 new potential opportunities, estimated to generate $75 billion in potential revenue over their lifecycle [5][6] Market Reaction - The market's negative reaction is attributed to the high expectations built around AI stocks, leading to a narrow margin for error [7][8] - Analysts believe the company remains an attractive player in the AI boom due to its ASIC chips for large-scale data centers and opportunities in network and cloud infrastructure [8] Competitive Position - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted potential short-term supply issues but highlighted the strength and durability of the company's optical solutions for high-speed data transmission compared to its ASIC business [9] - The collaboration with Amazon AWS regarding the next-generation AI training chip, Trainium 3, is expected to continue, with the belief that the company can grow alongside Amazon through higher-margin "XPU attach" projects [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from Marvell Technology did not exceed Wall Street's high expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price after hours trading, despite reporting record revenue and strong year-over-year growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - Marvell Technology reported Q2 revenue of $2.01 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase, but only met Wall Street expectations [1]. - The adjusted earnings per share were $0.67, also in line with analyst forecasts [1]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue was set at approximately $2.06 billion, slightly below the analyst expectation of $2.11 billion [1]. Strategic Focus - The CEO, Matt Murphy, indicated that the company is focusing on AI opportunities by reallocating investments from other markets to data centers, which currently contribute 75% of total revenue [3]. - Marvell completed the divestiture of its automotive Ethernet business to enhance flexibility in stock buybacks and capital allocation [3]. - The company plans to report non-data center end markets as a single segment starting in Q3 [3]. Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the market's reaction was driven by previously high expectations for AI stocks, which left little room for error [4]. - Despite short-term supply challenges, analysts believe Marvell's optical solutions for data centers are stronger and more sustainable than previously thought [4]. - The collaboration with Amazon AWS regarding the next-generation AI training chip, Trainium 3, is expected to continue, with analysts anticipating steady growth in Marvell's ASIC business [4].

Core Insights - The ASIC custom chip market is expected to experience rapid growth due to the surge in AI computing power demand, with a projected market size of $55.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 53% from 2023 to 2028 [1][3] Group 1: Market Overview - The custom XPU market is anticipated to reach $40.8 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 47%, while the accessory market is expected to grow to $14.6 billion, with a remarkable CAGR of 90% [1][3] - Major players like Broadcom and Marvell dominate the market, collectively holding over 60% market share, with Broadcom's market share estimated at 55-60% and Marvell's at 13-15% [2][3] Group 2: Service Provider Capabilities - ASIC service providers need to possess strong IP design capabilities, including components for computing, storage, network I/O, and packaging, with Broadcom and Marvell offering comprehensive IP solutions [1][2] - The ability to design System on Chip (SoC) is crucial, with Broadcom and Marvell having established partnerships with major companies like Google and Amazon to enhance their SoC design capabilities [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Broadcom's AI business revenue reached over $4.4 billion in FY25Q2, showing a year-on-year increase of 46%, while Marvell's data center revenue for FY26Q1 was $1.441 billion, up 76% year-on-year [4] - The gross margins for custom ASIC businesses may face pressure due to increased competition, but there is significant potential for margin improvement as domestic players enter the AI ASIC market [4]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 12.2 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 150 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% during the week, with a year-to-date increase of 0.2%[11] Index Performance - The large-cap value index rose by 1.07%, while the ChiNext index dropped by 1.66%[11] - The market sentiment index decreased by 2.63%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[21] Participant Performance - The "national team" index showed the best performance with a weekly increase of 0.18%[21] - The private equity heavy index fell by 2.23%, but it has increased by 46.32% since the beginning of 2025[21] Sector Trends - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a strong direction, with significant developments in AI custom chips and solid-state batteries[41] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology self-reliance and expanding domestic demand in the context of geopolitical tensions[49] Risk Factors - The pace of domestic economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially increasing market uncertainty[52] - Geopolitical events could lead to heightened tensions, impacting market stability[52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marvell Technology (MRVL US) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $85.20 [7][8]. Core Insights - Marvell has significantly raised its forecast for the global accelerated computing chip market to $349 billion by 2028, an increase of 103%, driven by major cloud computing companies and emerging AI compute builders increasing their data center CAPEX [2]. - The company also revised its forecast for the AI custom chip market to $55.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a 29% increase, with custom chips expected to account for 25% of the AI computing chip market [2]. - Marvell aims to maintain a 20% market share in the data center potential market, which is projected to grow to $94 billion by 2028, up 26% from previous estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global accelerated computing chip market is expected to reach $349 billion by 2028, with XPU and XPU supporting chips projected to be $221 billion [2]. - The AI custom chip market is anticipated to grow to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a notable increase in the market for custom XPU supporting chips, expected to rise from $6 million in 2023 to $146 million by 2028 [2]. Competitive Advantage - Marvell has established a differentiated advantage in core IP technologies such as Serdes, custom SRAM, and custom HBM, enhancing its competitive position in custom chips and data center interconnect chips [3]. - The company has secured 18 AI custom chip projects, including five XPU projects, indicating strong engagement with major clients for next-generation projects [3]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Marvell are $2.53 billion for FY2026, $3.23 billion for FY2027, and $4.02 billion for FY2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The target price of $85.20 suggests a potential upside from the current closing price of $74.95, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8].