国产算力迎来发展新机遇：国内云厂商资本开支尚有提升空间，腾讯、阿里、百度25Q3资本开支分别 为130亿元/315亿元/34亿元，分别同比-24%/+80%/+107%。国内云厂商也同步提升远期AI投入，阿里在 今年2月宣布未来三年投入3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，看好国产算力的AI芯片、存储芯片、先 进晶圆制造、交换芯片、光芯片等方向。 AI端侧看好苹果硬件及端侧AI创新及AI/AR眼镜产业链：全球AI大模型调用量正经历高速增长，行业 已进入规模化应用爆发期。苹果的AI战略是以硬件为本、端侧优先、强隐私保护。核心能力涵盖语言 文本、图片影像、跨应用操作、个人情景理解，其AI不是单一功能或大模型，而是深度嵌入操作系 统、芯片与应用生态的"个人智能系统"，基于个人情景实现跨app执行操作。AI/AR眼镜有望不断实现 技术突破和销量上升，看好SOC芯片、光学等核心环节。 风险提示： AI资本开支低于预期、AI端侧应用不达预期、存储芯片上涨影响电子硬件销量，存储及晶圆厂扩产低 于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，北美四大云厂商(微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊)资本开支 持续增长，并且对未来资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The rapid development of AI large models is driving the expansion of the switch market, with increasing demands for ultra-large-scale networking, high bandwidth, low latency, high stability, and automated network deployment [2][3] - The global switch market is projected to reach USD 43.89 billion in 2025, while the Chinese switch market is expected to grow to approximately CNY 44.48 billion in the same year, indicating significant growth potential [2][28] - The demand for switches is evolving towards white-box solutions, market expansion, and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology, which enhances flexibility and reduces deployment costs [3][46] Summary by Sections AI Large Models Driving Data Center Expansion - AI large models are becoming the new engine of artificial intelligence, significantly impacting various fields and driving the digital economy [8][12] - The global data center market is expected to grow to USD 96.8 billion by 2025, with China's market projected to reach CNY 318 billion [22] Switch Demand Upgrade - The switch market is experiencing a shift towards white-box switches, which offer flexibility and cost advantages through decoupled hardware and software [43][44] - OCS technology is emerging as a key player, providing ultra-high bandwidth and compatibility for future network demands [46][47] Switch Chip Demand Upgrade - The demand for high-bandwidth switch chips is increasing, with 100G and above Ethernet switch chips expected to dominate the market by 2025 [50][54] - The production of switch chips is facing challenges due to the industry's shift towards advanced packaging technologies to overcome physical limitations [59][66] Related Companies - Companies to watch include Shengke Communication, ZTE, Ruijie Networks, and Unisplendour, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the switch market [4][76]

智通财经APP获悉，上周五，博通(AVGO.US)的股价走势可谓"惨不忍睹"：当日收盘价报359.93美元， 较前一日大幅下跌46.44美元，跌幅高达11.43%。而到了本周一收盘，其股价仍未止住跌势，续跌近 6%，最终收于339.81美元。这般凶猛的抛售行情，究竟是否合理呢?Seek Alpha的分析师迈克尔·菲茨西 蒙斯针对这一情况展开了深入讨论。据悉，菲茨西蒙斯不仅是一位退休的电子工程师，在投资领域也深 耕多年，是一位资深投资者。 图1 过去数年里，菲茨西蒙斯始终对博通青睐有加，这背后有着深刻缘由。归根结底，博通具备堪称行业标 杆的"AI 三件套"优势：其一，是专为超大规模数据中心量身打造的XPU AI优化处理器，能高效应对复 杂运算需求;其二，是堪称前沿高速网络设备领域王者的交换芯片，在网络传输性能上表现卓越;其三， 则是附带战略合作的VMware虚拟化与企业软件，这一组合让VMware能够在英伟达(NVDA.US)和 AMD(AMD.US)的GPU上实现全栈运行。 此外，作为一名退休的计算机工程师，菲茨西蒙斯可以毫不夸张地说，博通首席执行官陈福阳(Hock Tan)是业界最犀利、最具远见的掌门人之一 ...

Eugene Zhao 赵方舟 Tel: (86) 178 9848 1530 15 Dec 2025 [Table_header2] SFC CE: BUC831 环球富盛理财有限公司 博通（AVGO US, 买入/TP$460） TPU 如火如荼，AI 收入翻倍再翻倍 点评： ➢ 4Q25 业绩超预期，1Q26 指引基本符合预期。目标价$460：公司 4Q25 营收 180.15亿美元（环比+12.9%/ 同比+28%），预期 174.6 亿美元（此前指引$54bn）。毛利率 77.9%，预期 77.5%。EPS $1.95，预期 $1.88。本季营收中，半导体解决方案收入占$11.1bn 同比+35%，其中 AI 收入占$6.5bn；基础设施软件营 收占$6.9b，同比+19%。1Q26 指引营收$19bn，预期$18.4bn。AI 收入指引$8.2bn，同比翻倍。尽管盘后 因市场认为公司未来 18 个月$73bn 的 AI 订单和毛利率承压导致下跌，我们仍看好博通长期的 XPU/交换芯 片需求以及维持 OPM 的能力。我们预计 FY26/27 年营收为$97/136bn，EPS 为$10.2/14.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy support for the computing power industry in Fujian Province, emphasizing the strategic importance of computing power in the digital economy and its role in promoting the integration of digital and real economies [4][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Fujian Province aims to achieve a public computing power scale of over 12 EFLOPS by the end of 2027, with plans to construct several medium-sized computing infrastructure projects [4][5]. - The measures include enhancing the efficiency of computing power network transmission and promoting the construction of the "Fuzhou-Shenzhen Short Path Optical Cable" project [8][6]. - The initiative encourages the establishment of a unified computing resource public service platform to facilitate resource allocation and sharing across the province [6][5]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The plan outlines the construction of high-performance data centers in key areas, including the Digital Fujian Industrial Park, to lead the demonstration of computing resource applications [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need for strict compliance with national layout requirements for data centers, focusing on energy efficiency and resource utilization [5][6]. - By 2027, the energy utilization efficiency (PUE) of newly built or renovated data centers is expected to be below 1.25, with an overall rack utilization rate of no less than 65% [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The article highlights the importance of advancing technologies such as 400G/800G optical transmission and IPv6 segment routing to improve network transmission efficiency [8][9]. - It mentions the goal of achieving a 90% OTN coverage rate in key application areas by 2027 [8]. - The focus is also on the development of edge computing nodes, with a target of deploying at least 50 nodes and creating no less than five typical cases by 2027 [8][9]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The computing power infrastructure market is viewed as a rapidly expanding sector, with significant growth potential as demand for computing resources continues to rise [10]. - Companies with comprehensive AI stack capabilities are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for computing power solutions, particularly in light of advancements in AI models [10]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the supply chain of optical interconnects, including light modules and related technologies, as the market evolves [10].

算力产业链，又迎来政策支持！ 日前，福建省数据管理局、福建省工业和信息化厅、福建省通信管理局印发《福建省有序推进算力基础设施发展若干措施》 （以下简称"若干措施"）。其中提到，到2027年底，全省公共算力规模达到12EFLOPS以上，谋划建设一批中型算力基础设 施项目，合理扩大算力建设规模。 若干措施还提到，提升算力网络传输效率，推进"福州—深圳短路径光缆"项目建设。升级扩容"福淡""厦金"海底光缆，依托 区域性国际关口局探索算力出海专网服务。 若干措施提出，到2027年底，全省公共算力规模达到12EFLOPS以上，并根据全省公共算力应用需求、资源利用率等情况， 谋划建设一批中型算力基础设施项目，合理扩大算力建设规模，推动智算中心提升国产化率。新建及改扩建数据中心电能利 用效率（PUE）降至1.25以内，数据中心整体上架率不低于65%，打造不少于20个算力应用案例，稳步提升数据中心绿色能 源使用比例。 在上述消息的刺激下，12月2日盘中，福建板块多只跟算力相关的股票大幅异动。其中，太阳电缆从拉升动作开始至涨停 板，用时仅2分钟。鸿博股份盘中也一度触板，恒锋信息一度大涨超16%。 加快构建"一核两区多点"的全省 ...

中信证券指出，这一架构变革深度重塑了互联组件配比逻辑，驱动交换芯片、光模块及高速线模组需求 从线性增长转变为指数级爆发。当前国内AI算力投入较海外仍有巨大提升空间，超节点架构是国产算 力建设实现后发赶超的必经之路，云厂商与设备商正加速推进开放协议的适配。建议重点关注互联密度 提升带来的价值重估机遇，推荐高速连接模组厂商、交换互联厂商、光模块厂商，以及AIDC及配套厂 商。 伴随AI大模型向万亿参数、多模态及智能体加速演进，传统架构面临通信与能耗瓶颈，推动算力基础 设施向"超节点"架构跃迁，以NVL72为代表的方案通过高带宽、低延迟的互联显著提升了训练效率与推 理吞吐量。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI technology and the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's technological self-reliance and innovation [2][4][12]. Semiconductor Industry - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets higher requirements for technological self-reliance, with a focus on AI chips as essential infrastructure for generative AI development [2]. - Domestic companies are increasingly achieving performance parity with overseas products in cloud AI chips, indicating a promising growth trajectory for the domestic cloud AI chip industry [2]. - In the edge AI chip sector, Chinese firms have reached global leadership in certain low-power scenarios, suggesting rapid deployment opportunities [2]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is witnessing a shift towards local production due to geopolitical changes and supply chain restructuring, with an expected increase in advanced process capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][6]. - The demand for advanced packaging will rise alongside the production of advanced process chips, necessitating upgrades in packaging technology to meet performance requirements [5][6]. Consumer Electronics - China has become a global manufacturing hub for consumer electronics, with smartphone exports projected to reach 814 million units in 2024, accounting for 66% of global shipments [8]. - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a dual trend of geopolitical uncertainty and rapid AI development, with AI-enabled products expected to drive growth by 2026 [8][9]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote the digital transformation of manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of AI in operations and production processes [8][9]. ICT Equipment - China has established a leading position in digital infrastructure, with over 4.5 million 5G base stations and significant growth in computing power centers [11][12]. - The digital economy is projected to contribute 10.4% to GDP by 2024, reflecting a shift towards a more technology-driven economic model [11][12]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on advancing digital technologies, including AI, to enhance productivity and economic growth [12][13]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production capabilities and technological advancements, particularly in logic and storage chips [6][7]. - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market in China is gradually improving, with domestic companies gaining market share despite historically low localization rates [7]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize the development of AI infrastructure and the integration of AI across various sectors, positioning it as a key driver of future economic growth [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1,005.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.69% to 53.2 billion yuan [1]. - The operator business faced pressure, leading to a significant decline in profits, with a Q3 net profit of 2.64 billion yuan, down 87.84% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its server business, achieving a 180% year-on-year growth in computing revenue, with server and storage revenue increasing by 250% [3]. - The company has developed core switching chip capabilities, achieving a key chip forwarding capacity of 12.8T, with plans to upgrade to 51.2T [4]. - The company is integrating AI into its operations, enhancing its "connection + computing" strategy, and expanding in both computing and terminal sectors [5]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 73 billion, 83 billion, and 92 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 22 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 289.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24.93% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 25.85%, down 14.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the high-margin operator business [2]. - The company’s inventory increased to 461 billion yuan by the end of Q3, up from 420.6 billion yuan at mid-year [2]. Business Expansion - The computing revenue accounted for 25% of total revenue, with significant contributions from major internet and financial companies [3]. - The company is actively promoting AI applications in consumer and family scenarios, launching innovative AI-enabled products [5]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the company's strategy of deepening "connection + computing" is expected to create a second growth curve, despite current pressures on the operator business [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 140.50 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, achieving 388 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.70%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -128 million RMB, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The demand in the downstream market is recovering well, and the company’s products, including 2.5G PHY and automotive-grade chips, are ramping up production, contributing to revenue growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve over 40% revenue growth in 2025, driven by the expansion of its product offerings and market penetration in automotive applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 166 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 48.87% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.78%. The gross margin was stable at 42.69% [2][1]. - The company’s expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a further reduction in losses [2]. Product Development - The company is expanding its product lineup, with multiple new products in the automotive sector achieving mass production. This includes the automotive Ethernet TSN switch chip and various PHY chips [3][4]. - The 2.5G PHY chip is expected to see record revenue in 2025, with the company also developing higher-end applications like the 10G PHY chip [3][4]. Market Outlook - The automotive-grade market is experiencing a mild recovery, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend through its innovative product offerings [3]. - The company’s strategy includes actively expanding into the automotive gateway and high-speed video transmission chip markets, which are expected to contribute to revenue in the medium to long term [3].