上周，美股AI板块在市场质疑声中剧烈波动。此前，甲骨文等AI明星品种在资金担忧巨额投入能否转 化为利润、以及融资模式争议中集体承压，市场对"AI泡沫是否走到破裂边缘"的讨论迅速扩散。 12月17日甲骨文股价大跌逾5%，与9月的历史高点相比，跌幅接近50%。AI泡沫之争已成为美股市场的 焦点所在。 □本报记者 王雪青 王昱炟 AI泡沫讨论升级 近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水联席首席投资官格雷格·詹森警告称，随着大型科技公司越来越多地依赖 用"外部资本"来支撑不断上升的成本，人工智能支出热潮正进入一个"危险"阶段。 中金公司在12月17日发布的研报中认为，甲骨文在披露高额资本开支计划后，股价出现大幅回调。这一 现象反映出市场对人工智能投资的逻辑正在发生转向，单纯依赖资本开支驱动的乐观叙事或已不再占据 主导地位，投资者开始重新审视潜在风险。投资回报、融资条件以及企业间关联性三个维度存在潜在风 险点。 报告显示，尽管AI被视为未来最具潜力的技术方向，但其商业化路径仍不明确。随着投资规模不断扩 大，AI投资的边际效率大概率也会降低，但成本却未见下降。AI投资仍处于"规模不经济"阶段，市场担 忧正在推动股票估值重新评估。同时 ...

Core Insights - Oracle Corporation is experiencing skepticism regarding its financial stability and ability to fund its data center expansion, primarily driven by its relationship with OpenAI [1][2] - The company raised $18 billion in the bond market, but concerns have arisen about its capacity to manage this financing effectively [1] - Recent earnings reports from Oracle and Broadcom led to significant stock declines, with Oracle dropping 10.8% and Broadcom falling 11.4%, impacting the entire AI data center sector [2] Company Overview - Oracle provides cloud and on-premise software, databases, IT infrastructure, hardware, consulting, and support services to businesses [2] - The company is heavily involved in tech spending, particularly in relation to OpenAI, which is seen as a major client [1][2] Market Sentiment - There is a growing belief in the market that Oracle may not be financially sound enough to support its ambitious data center projects [1] - The purchase of credit default swaps on Oracle's debt indicates increasing concern among investors regarding the company's financial health [1]

Group 1 - Oracle Corporation is involved in a significant deal with OpenAI, which is a $300 billion five-year agreement that has not been formally announced but is reflected in the remaining performance obligation line [1] - The company provides a range of services including cloud and on-premise software, databases, IT infrastructure, hardware, consulting, and support services [2] - There is a belief that while Oracle has potential as an investment, other AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock performance in 2025 reflects the ongoing conflict in the tech sector regarding whether AI represents a significant opportunity or a potential risk [1] Group 1: AI Investments and Stock Performance - Oracle announced a joint venture with OpenAI and SoftBank called Stargate, committing to invest $500 billion in US AI infrastructure, which initially boosted the stock price [2] - Following quarterly earnings reports in June and September, optimism around AI drove Oracle's shares higher, with projections indicating cloud segment revenue could reach $166 billion by 2030 [3] - Despite the initial surge, Oracle's shares have dropped over 40% from their September peak, although they remain up 16% for the year [4] Group 2: Debt Concerns and Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly worried about the rising debt levels used to finance AI investments, leading to a demand for credit default swaps (CDS) among major tech firms [4][5] - Oracle has issued nearly $26 billion in bonds this year, with CDS spreads widening significantly, indicating heightened risk perceptions [6] - The company's total debt rose 40% year-over-year to $124 billion, while cash outflow increased from $2.7 billion to $10 billion, raising concerns about financial stability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough personal research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in shares of AMZN and GOOG, indicating confidence in these companies' future performance [2]. - The article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional investment advice, urging investors to be cautious [3]. - There is a clear distinction made between the author's opinions and those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, suggesting that individual views may vary [4].

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：Mini11月——基本面、 BOJ和科技板块 放风险 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：就业趋势走弱，但维 持降息预期 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：通胀数据质量不佳， 但降温不可忽视 • 周度海外宏观要点：More Charts of the Week Special report on Guota ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 has decreased in December, contrary to historical trends that typically show strong performance in this month [1] - For the year, the S&P 500 is up 952.87 points, or 16.2%, while the Dow Jones is up 5,590.67 points, or 13.1%, the Nasdaq is up 3,996.83 points, or 20.7%, and the Russell 2000 is up 299.27 points, or 13.4% [6][10] Influencing Factors - Recent fluctuations in U.S. equities have been driven by scrutiny over significant corporate spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and changing expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Concerns regarding Oracle's data-center project have negatively impacted tech and AI-related stocks, while positive inflation data has provided a boost to the market [2][5] Sector Analysis - The tech sector, which has the largest weighting in major indexes like the S&P 500, has faced challenges due to worries about the timing of returns on substantial infrastructure investments in AI [5] - Despite these concerns, AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and Oracle, have shown resilience, with Nvidia rising again and Oracle experiencing a significant increase after entering a joint venture for TikTok in the U.S. [9]

Group 1 - The article highlights that multiple factors contributed to the end of the short-term decline of Oracle and CRWV stocks, particularly focusing on OpenAI's financing progress [1] - OpenAI is planning to raise $100 billion in funding, with a significant investment gap of $1 billion after accounting for its projected revenue of $40 billion and a promised capacity of 5GW, which corresponds to an investment of $250 billion [1] - SoftBank Group is accelerating its commitment to finance OpenAI with $22.5 billion, aiming to complete this through various financing plans by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - TikTok has signed a notable agreement to spin off its U.S. operations to an investment group that includes Oracle, Silver Lake, and the Abu Dhabi-based investment fund MGX [1] - The stocks of OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle experienced a notable increase on Friday night [2]

Group 1 - Elon Musk publicly criticized nuclear fusion power, stating that building small fusion reactors on Earth is economically foolish, as the sun itself is a massive, free fusion reactor capable of meeting all energy needs in the solar system [2] - Musk plans to deploy 100GW of solar-powered AI satellites annually, which is equivalent to about a quarter of the total electricity consumption of the United States [2] Group 2 - Zhongke Shuguang unveiled the scaleX Wanka supercluster at the HAIC2025 conference, marking the first appearance of a domestic 10,000-card AI cluster system in physical form [3] - Unisoc announced the establishment of a Central Research Institute to focus on new architectures and models for edge AI chips, particularly for applications in autonomous driving and robotics [3] Group 3 - Cambricon announced plans to use 2.778 billion yuan of its capital reserve to cover cumulative losses, with the aim of bringing its negative retained earnings to zero by the end of 2024 [4] Group 4 - MiniMax has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and plans to go public in January 2026, potentially becoming the fastest AI company to IPO globally within four years of its establishment [6] - Zhiyuan Technology has officially passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange IPO hearing, with CICC as the sole sponsor [6] Group 5 - Tencent has established an AI Infra department to enhance its large model research framework, with Vincesyao appointed as the chief AI scientist [6][7] - The AI Infra department will focus on building technical capabilities for large model training and inference platforms [7] Group 6 - ByteDance is advancing a collaboration with Lenovo to develop AI smartphones, aiming to pre-install AIGC plugins to gain user access [8] - Doubao released version 1.8 of its large model, enhancing its capabilities for multi-modal agent scenarios [9] Group 7 - Qianwen APP has integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, enabling it to access underlying services like Gaode Map for enhanced geographical understanding [10] - Alibaba launched the new generation of the Wanxiang 2.6 model, which supports role-playing functions for video production [11] Group 8 - Baidu launched the Wenxin Health Manager, positioning it as a 24/7 "all-in-one family doctor" service [14] - The application offers a comprehensive AI health service system covering light symptom consultations and complex disease planning [14] Group 9 - Aishi Technology signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Alibaba Cloud to enhance global deployment and compliance capabilities for its video generation model [15] - Xiaomi open-sourced its MiMo-V2-Flash model, which boasts competitive capabilities at a significantly lower inference cost compared to closed-source models [16] Group 10 - Muxi Technology officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 4.197 billion yuan to accelerate the development of "Chinese chips" [17] - The company focuses on high-performance general-purpose GPU products for AI training and inference [17] Group 11 - Meituan released and open-sourced the LongCat-Video-Avatar model, which supports multiple video generation tasks [18] - The model has achieved significant breakthroughs in action realism and video stability [18] Group 12 - Chinese scientists achieved a breakthrough in optical computing chips, enabling large-scale semantic media generation [19][20] - The LightGen chip demonstrates significant improvements in performance and energy efficiency compared to traditional digital chips [20] Group 13 - Baidu's Kunlun chip business is reportedly nearing completion of its restructuring, aiming for a potential listing in Hong Kong [20] - SenseTime's Seko series models have successfully adapted to the domestic AI chip Cambricon [20] Group 14 - Nvidia's CEO revealed that the company has not yet made any payments to OpenAI as part of a planned $100 billion investment [22] - Nvidia launched the Nemotron 3 open-source model series, significantly improving throughput compared to its predecessor [23] Group 15 - OpenAI plans to raise up to $100 billion, potentially valuing the company at $830 billion [24] - The new image model GPT-image-1.5 was launched, enhancing image generation capabilities significantly [25] Group 16 - Intel is in talks to acquire AI chip startup SambaNova for approximately $1.6 billion [30] - Multiple AI companies have recently completed significant funding rounds to support their growth and technology development [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

Group 1 - A joint venture has been established with three investors, including Oracle, to continue operating TikTok's business in the United States [1] - Oracle's stock surged over 8% to $194.75 following the announcement [1] - Additionally, Oracle and OpenAI received approval for power supply at a data center in Michigan [1]