昨晚评论席有人问我做西安大唐不夜城的曲江文旅，为什么上半年还亏了将近2亿，我当时第一直觉是成本控制有问题，收盘后去验证了一下，发现情况 要复杂一些。 首先大唐不夜城虽然是一个网红景点，但它不收门票，流量大，但人均消费低。曲江文旅是轻资产代运营，挣的是收入分成，最后上市公司到账只有很薄 的利润，上半年就赚了20多万。 其次曲江文旅在当地事业单位和机构有大量的应收账款，在上半年计提了小2亿的坏账，这是上半年亏损的主要来源。涉及坏账的对象是西安曲江新区事 业资产管理中心、西安曲江大明宫遗址区保护改造办公室、西安曲江文化产业发展中心，累计坏账5亿多。 这些单位名字一听就一股官味，是的，和曲江文旅一样，都是由曲江新区管委会最终控制，说白了大家就是国资控股的兄弟企业。 是不是听了觉得怪怪 的， 国资企业 互相欠帐，最后把坏账装到上市公司里，股民成了最终买单的倒霉蛋。 其实类似的情况还有张家界（000430），旅游行业红红火火，但是上市公司上半年亏6000万。原因是投资20亿修的大庸古城，上半年客流量下跌80%，买 票人数只有0.23万，营业收入232万。 就这么一片现代仿古建筑群，我没看出来20亿是怎么花的，反正也都是花 ...

Yoshiyoshi Hirokawa/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction PDD Holdings' (NASDAQ:PDD) negative comments about its long-term profitability forecast, the unpredictability of geopolitical conflict, and the absence of a shareholder buyout surprised the market when the company released its Q2 earnings today. As a result, after the earnings, the stock price fell by 30%. We published an article titled "PDD Holdings Challenge To Alibaba's Reign" in November 2023. We think the moment is probably near after exam ...

Key TakeawaysU.S.-traded shares of Temu parent PDD Holdings plunged 29% on Monday after the China-based online retailer posted revenue that came in below expectations amid intensifying competition.Investors fret that profitability may slow as the company increases investments to scale its business.PDD shares broke down from a rising wedge on above-average trading volume, indicating selling participation by institutional investors.Investors may look for buying opportunities at key support levels including $9 ...

Earnings Performance and Market Reaction - PDD Holdings' stock declined nearly 30% on August 26 after its Q2 earnings release, retesting lows last seen in October 2023 [1] - Despite a 86% YoY revenue surge, the company failed to outperform Wall Street's revenue estimates, indicating high market optimism [1] - Transaction services revenue increased by 234% YoY, while online marketing services grew only 29% YoY [1] Competitive Landscape and Strategic Shifts - PDD plans to invest more aggressively from Q3 to address heightened competition, which may worsen profitability metrics in the near term [2] - The company faces challenges from Amazon's encroachment and regulatory scrutiny over merchant practices, including non-compliant merchants [2] - PDD needs to undertake a structural shift in its merchant ecosystem to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [2] Valuation and Market Sentiment - PDD's valuation grade improved from "D" to "B-" over the past six months, reflecting significant pessimism after the selloff [4] - The company's adjusted forward PEG ratio of 0.32 is nearly 80% below the sector median, highlighting its growth-adjusted valuation appeal [4] - Despite the selloff, PDD remains priced for growth, suggesting a valuation bifurcation [4] Investment Strategy and Future Outlook - PDD's decision to reduce transaction fees and invest in higher-quality merchants is deemed appropriate but may impact revenue and profitability in the near term [3] - The company's uptrend continuation thesis has weakened but not decisively overturned, with potential for dip-buyers to return after the selling intensity subsides [5] - Management's focus on regulatory compliance and high-quality merchant growth is expected to mitigate long-term risks [5]

Warren Buffett and value investors like him like to start looking into stocks when they are beaten up the most. Value investing is often a contrarian view; otherwise, the market would be efficiently priced, as some academics would argue. Being willing to go against popular opinion and consensus can deliver the greatest dividends, and there is one stock offering such an opportunity today.PDD TodayPDDPDD$100.00 -39.87 (-28.51%) 52-Week Range$79.00▼$164.69P/E Ratio13.25Price Target$187.50Add to WatchlistOperat ...

The impact of missed earnings expectations can be severe, as Temu’s parent company, PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD), came to know, experiencing its largest ever one-day drop since its listing on Nasdaq.Namely, on August 26, PDD Holdings released its Q2 earnings report, which posted a miss on expectations with a miss on adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.81, compared to expectations of $2.81.Revenue also came in below expectations at $13.35 billion compared to an estimated $13.78 billion, prompting a massive ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Outperform" rating [2][18][22][33] Core Views - The company's non-GAAP net profit for the quarter reached 34.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125%, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 35%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - The significant improvement in net profit margin is primarily due to the substantial reduction in losses from TEMU [2][5] - The company's gross profit margin for the quarter was 65%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year [2][5] - Sales expenses increased by 48% year-on-year, but the sales expense ratio decreased by 7 percentage points to 27% [2][5] - Management indicated that the company will not engage in share buybacks or dividends in the near future due to intense competition and external uncertainties [2][5] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 419.3 billion yuan in 2024E to 592.2 billion yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 69.3%, 22.0%, and 15.8% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 121.3 billion yuan in 2024E to 163.1 billion yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 78.7%, 17.2%, and 14.7% respectively [1] - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 22.15 yuan in 2024E to 29.78 yuan in 2026E [1] Financial Metrics - EBIT margin is expected to decline from 32.7% in 2024E to 28.0% in 2025E and 2026E [1] - ROE is projected to peak at 39.7% in 2024E before declining to 25.9% in 2026E [1] - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 8.0x in 2024E to 6.0x in 2026E [1] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 2.9x in 2024E to 3.9x in 2026E [1] Business Performance - Quarterly revenue reached 97.0 billion yuan, up 85% year-on-year, driven by a 234% increase in payment channel revenue, largely due to TEMU's rapid growth [17][20] - Advertising revenue grew by 29% year-on-year, reflecting the company's enhanced monetization capabilities [17][20] - TEMU's Q2 GMV exceeded 13.0 billion USD, contributing approximately 47.1 billion yuan in revenue [17][20] Strategic Focus - The company plans to reduce transaction fees for high-quality merchants by 10.0 billion yuan in the first year [17][20] - Investments will be made to streamline merchant onboarding and product listing processes, improving platform quality and merchant environment [17][20] - The company is shifting its strategy towards long-term investments, which may pressure profitability in the future [33]

In this articlePDDJakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesThe nearly 30% drop in shares of Chinese online retailer PDD Holdings is "too much of a correction," according to Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group.Speaking to CNBC's "Street Signs Asia," Rein said the "panic was overblown last night," and that this would be a good opportunity for investors to buy into the stock.His comments come after shares of PDD Holdings saw their largest one-day loss since listing on th ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [11] Core Views - 2Q2024 revenue increased by 85.65% YoY to RMB 970.60 billion, with GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 144.20% YoY to RMB 320.09 billion [15] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 125.50% YoY to RMB 344.32 billion in 2Q2024 [15] - 1H2024 revenue reached RMB 1,838.72 billion, up 104.49% YoY, with GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 182.93% YoY to RMB 600.07 billion [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H2024 was RMB 650.34 billion, up 156.08% YoY [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2Q2024 online marketing service revenue grew by 29.48% YoY to RMB 491.16 billion, while commission income surged by 234.15% YoY to RMB 479.44 billion [16] - 1H2024 online marketing service revenue increased by 40.50% YoY to RMB 915.72 billion, and commission income rose by 273.07% YoY to RMB 922.99 billion [16] Profit Margins - 1H2024 gross margin was 63.89%, down 2.95 percentage points YoY [2] - 2Q2024 gross margin improved by 1.03 percentage points YoY to 65.28% [2] - 1H2024 operating expense ratio decreased by 12.96 percentage points YoY to 32.06% [15] - 2Q2024 operating expense ratio dropped by 8.22 percentage points YoY to 31.73% [15] Earnings Per Share (EPS) - 1H2024 diluted EPS was RMB 10.14 [1] - 2Q2024 diluted EPS was RMB 5.40 [15] Valuation and Market Performance - Current market capitalization is USD 138.877 billion [4] - The stock's 1-year low/high range is USD 108.87/164.69 [4] - 3-month turnover rate is 54.35% [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest billions of resources to support high-quality merchants and industrial belts, reducing transaction fees for premium merchants and improving supply chain quality and efficiency [16] Future Outlook - The company has revised its GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders forecast for 2024/2025/2026 downward by 10%/7%/9% to RMB 1,263.48/1,844.46/2,474.26 billion, respectively, due to uncertainties in overseas business [16]

27 Aug 2024 PDD Holdings (PDD US) 27 Aug 2024 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------|-----------------|-------|-------|-------------------|-------|-------------|----------------|---------| | RMB bn | 2024E | Current 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | Consensus 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | Diff (%) 2025E | 2026E | | Revenue 413.0 544.5 678.3 | | | | 419.9 | 551.9 | | 678.9 -1 ...