Chinese stocks have quietly achieved a strong return in 2025, trouncing the general drop in U.S. stocks. The SPDR S&P China ETF NYSEARCA: GXC has returned over 15% year-to-date as of the Mar. 24 close. This compares impressively to the nearly -2% return of the S&P 500 Index. This rally is even more pronounced when looking at the return of Chinese e-commerce company PDD NASDAQ: PDD. The stock has provided a total return of over 32% on the year. Although most of the gain in PDD came before its Q4 earnings rep ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 拼多多（PDD） 公司点评 24Q4 业绩点评：利润超预期，持续提升优质供给化 | 投资评级：增持（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-3-27 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（美元） | 122.47 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（美元） 164.7/88.0 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 5,555 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 5,555 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿美元） | 1,701 | | 流通市值（亿美元） | 1,701 | [公司价格与 Table_Chart]纳斯达克指数走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 -50% 0% 50% 24/03 24/06 24/09 24/12 25/03 纳斯达克 拼多多 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 ⚫[Table_Summary] 24Q4 业绩：收入低于预期， ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 拼多多（PDD） 公司点评 24Q4 业绩点评：利润超预期，持续提升优质供给化 | 投资评级：增持（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-3-27 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（美元） | 122.47 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（美元） 164.7/88.0 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 5,555 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 5,555 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿美元） | 1,701 | | 流通市值（亿美元） | 1,701 | [公司价格与 Table_Chart]纳斯达克指数走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 -50% 0% 50% 24/03 24/06 24/09 24/12 25/03 纳斯达克 拼多多 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.拼多多 24Q3：业绩低于预期，费用 减免政策使得主站利润承 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 拼多多（PDD.O） 优于大市 2024Q4 财报点评：利润表现好于预期，平台生态建设向收获 期迈进 持续投入平台生态建设，收入表现低于预期。本季度公司营业收入 1106 亿元， 同比增长 24%，其中广告营销收入 570 亿元，yoy+17%；支付通道收入 536 亿元，yoy+33%，环比看广告和支付通道收入增速均有下降。分拆看，广告 收入为主站广告营销收入，据我们测算，Q4 公司主站 GMV 增速为 14%左右， 广告与 GMV 增速 GAP 同比收窄，延续 24 年的货币化率提升趋势。支付通道 收入包含主站佣金、多多买菜与 TEMU 收入，本季度收入增速较上季度继续 显著收窄，主要是因为公司继续推动高质量发展战略，其中包括百亿费用减 免计划（已帮助超 1000 万商家提高运营效率并降低成本）、推广服务费返 还计划、双十一超级加倍补（补贴新质供给）等，虽然让利商家和用户造成 短期的收入增速放缓，但推动了平台生态的可持续发展。 利润表现好于预期，费用投放保持高效。本季度公司 non-GAAP 净利润 299 亿 元，yoy+14%，non-GAAP 净利率 25% ...

拼多多（PDD.O） 优于大市 2024Q4 财报点评：利润表现好于预期，平台生态建设向收获 期迈进 持续投入平台生态建设，收入表现低于预期。本季度公司营业收入 1106 亿元， 同比增长 24%，其中广告营销收入 570 亿元，yoy+17%；支付通道收入 536 亿元，yoy+33%，环比看广告和支付通道收入增速均有下降。分拆看，广告 收入为主站广告营销收入，据我们测算，Q4 公司主站 GMV 增速为 14%左右， 广告与 GMV 增速 GAP 同比收窄，延续 24 年的货币化率提升趋势。支付通道 收入包含主站佣金、多多买菜与 TEMU 收入，本季度收入增速较上季度继续 显著收窄，主要是因为公司继续推动高质量发展战略，其中包括百亿费用减 免计划（已帮助超 1000 万商家提高运营效率并降低成本）、推广服务费返 还计划、双十一超级加倍补（补贴新质供给）等，虽然让利商家和用户造成 短期的收入增速放缓，但推动了平台生态的可持续发展。 利润表现好于预期，费用投放保持高效。本季度公司 non-GAAP 净利润 299 亿 元，yoy+14%，non-GAAP 净利率 25%，净利率同比下降 2.3pct。本季度公司 ...

PDD Holdings (PDD) recently released its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2024 financial results, showing a mixed performance that has left investors questioning its near-term trajectory. The China-based e-commerce giant reported fourth-quarter revenues of $15.15 billion, representing a 24% year-over-year increase, while missing analyst expectations by approximately $746 million. Despite the revenue miss, earnings per share came in at $2.78, beating estimates by 6 cents.The company's performance reflects its ongoi ...

Core Insights - PDD (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q4-24 results with revenue 5% below consensus and EBIT 3% below consensus, primarily due to a significant miss in transaction service revenue, which grew by 33% year-over-year compared to the consensus expectation of 52% year-over-year growth [1] - Online marketing service revenue growth was recorded at 17%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to previous expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4-24 was lower than expected, coming in at a 5% shortfall against consensus estimates [1] - EBIT also fell short, being 3% below consensus, highlighting potential challenges in operational efficiency or market conditions [1] - Transaction service revenue growth of 33% year-over-year was significantly below the anticipated 52% growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in this segment [1] - Online marketing service revenue growth of 17% reflects a more stable but slower growth trajectory compared to previous periods [1]

Core Insights - PDD is identified as a potential multibagger investment opportunity due to its rapid growth and market positioning in China's e-commerce sector [1][4]. Company Overview - PDD, founded in 2015, has quickly become one of China's fastest-growing e-commerce companies, attracting hundreds of millions of shoppers with its discount marketplace for group purchases [2]. - The company has expanded into higher-end markets, created an agricultural marketplace connecting farmers directly to consumers, and launched Temu to facilitate overseas sales [2]. Financial Performance - From 2016 to 2023, PDD's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142%, and it became profitable in 2021, with net income growing at a CAGR of 178% over the next two years [3]. - Despite a stock price drop of over 40% in the following four years, this decline presents a buying opportunity for investors [4]. Growth Strategies - PDD's growth strategies include focusing on lower-income second- and third-tier cities, leveraging initial growth to compete in first-tier cities, and expanding its product offerings to include more brand-name products [5][6][8]. - The company has disrupted traditional retail by connecting farmers directly to consumers through its agricultural marketplace, providing a competitive edge in the online grocery market [9]. - PDD's overseas marketplace, Temu, aims to challenge Amazon by linking Chinese sellers directly to foreign buyers, allowing for lower prices and shorter delivery times [10]. Future Projections - Analysts project PDD's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise by 61% and 87% respectively in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 [11]. - The growth projections are contingent on the stabilization of China's economy and PDD's ability to gain market share against competitors like Alibaba and JD [12]. - If PDD's performance aligns with analysts' estimates, its stock price could potentially rise to around $2,640 per share by 2035, assuming a more favorable valuation [14]. Investment Considerations - PDD's stock is currently trading at 10 times forward earnings, which is considered attractive given its growth potential [13]. - Investors are encouraged to consider PDD as a viable investment option, especially as many are currently avoiding top growth stocks in China [15].

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc reported disappointing fourth-quarter revenues, leading to a decline in share price amid a busy earnings season [1] Revenue Performance - PDD reported quarterly revenues of RMB 111 billion ($15.3 billion), representing a 24% year-on-year increase, but fell short of consensus expectations by RMB 6 billion ($827 million) [2] - Online marketing services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2] Transaction Revenue Insights - Transaction revenues increased by 33% year-on-year, primarily driven by international expansion and Temu, but also missed consensus by RMB 6 billion [3] - The shift in Temu's business model from a full-entrusted model to a semi-entrusted model has led to a significant shortfall in transaction commission revenue [4] Investor Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the company's investments aimed at building a healthy ecosystem, which negatively impacts short-term profitability [5] - PDD is focusing on developing its platform ecosystem and adapting to domestic competition [5] Analyst Ratings - Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $160 [6] - Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $157 [6]

Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.76, slightly above analyst estimates, while revenue of $15.15 billion fell short of expectations by 2.5% [1][2] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS (diluted) for Q4 2024 was $2.76, an increase of 8.7% from Q4 2023's $2.54 [2] - Revenue reached $15.15 billion, a 24.3% increase year over year, but missed the consensus estimate of $15.55 billion [2][5] - Non-GAAP net income was $4.09 billion, up 17.1% from $3.49 billion in Q4 2023 [2] - Operating margin improved to 24.5%, a slight increase of 40 basis points from the previous year [2] Business Strategy - PDD Holdings focuses on diversifying its online marketplaces and integrating into the digital economy as part of its long-term growth strategy [3] - The company emphasizes innovation and platform diversity, with a strategic relocation of its headquarters to Dublin, Ireland, to align with global market ambitions [4] Revenue Drivers - Online marketing services and transaction services were significant contributors to revenue growth, with transaction service revenues increasing by 33% year over year to $7.34 billion [5] - Despite a 36% rise in operating costs to $6.55 billion, operating income grew by 14% to $3.51 billion, indicating effective cost control [6] Strategic Initiatives - Management's strategic moves include enhancing platform functionality and investing in supply chain and digital innovations to build consumer engagement [7] - The company is adjusting to geopolitical movements by strengthening its international market presence [8] Future Outlook - Management emphasizes international expansion and plans to enhance the platform ecosystem to meet growing global demand [9] - Changes in consumer behavior and competitive pressures will be critical areas of focus for the company moving forward [10]