19 January 2026 | 1:21AM HKT Equity Research NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET Pivotal year for AI investments & Defending core positioning; Stock picking around EPS delivery, Narrative changes & Shareholder returns We see 2026 as a strategic pivot year for China internet mega-caps with stepping up of AI To-C investments (capex + opex), competition around creating AI super entry-points, along with more concerted efforts in defending their respective core #1 positioning. We believe the pivoting will be prompted by i ...

然而，这场资本盛宴的膨胀速度与随后的市场收缩同样迅猛。社区团购的迅猛发展引发了监管关注。2020年12月，国家市场监管总局联合商务部推出"九 个不得"新规，明确要求互联网平台企业不得通过低价倾销、达成垄断协议、掠夺性定价等危害公平竞争市场。 这一监管重拳成为行业转折点。 自2021年起，泡沫开始破裂，倒闭潮席卷而来：同程生活申请破产，食享会转型零食赛道，橙心优选收缩关城，京喜拼拼与十荟团也大幅缩减业务。在随 后的两年内，行业洗牌以惊人的速度完成：滴滴橙心优选率先全面退出，京东的京喜拼拼逐渐边缘化，阿里淘菜菜与美团优选大幅收缩区域布局，众多创 业公司则被迫停止全国扩张，回归区域经营或黯然离场。 为什么不行了？ 事实上，社区团购自诞生以来，其商业模式就面临盈利困难的根本性质疑。在行业初期，互联网巨头依赖"大量烧钱"和"不计成本地补贴"来抢占市场，通 过"一分钱秒杀"等低于成本价的倾销行为培养用户习惯，但这种"赔本赚吆喝"的模式始终无法解决盈利问题。尤其是生鲜品类作为主营，其高损耗、低毛 利的特点进一步加剧了盈利压力。当资本补贴退潮后，平台难以找到可持续的盈利模式，导致长期亏损，最终被验证为"无法带来预期的增长和利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of Google (Alphabet) is approximately $4 trillion, while the combined market capitalization of China's top internet companies is only about $1.8 trillion, indicating a significant disparity in valuation and market perception [25][28][30]. Market Capitalization Comparison - As of the end of 2025 or early 2026, the estimated market capitalizations of major companies are as follows: - Google (Alphabet): ~$40,000 million - Tencent: ~$5,917 million - Alibaba: ~$3,333 million - Xiaomi: ~$1,987 million - Pinduoduo: ~$1,486 million - Meituan: ~$975 million - NetEase: ~$852 million - JD: ~$471 million - Trip.com: ~$383 million - Kuaishou: ~$345 million - Tencent Music: ~$302 million - The total market capitalization of the top 10 Chinese internet companies is estimated to be around $17,000–20,000 million, which is more than 2.2 times less than that of Google [28][3][25]. Competitive Landscape - The primary issue in the Chinese internet sector is not a lack of effort but rather a misdirection in competitive strategies, focusing excessively on user acquisition, subsidies, and speed, leading to a dangerous cycle of competition [30][5]. - This competitive model, which relies on free services to gain scale and eliminate competitors, is damaging long-term sustainability in the industry [31][32]. Impact on Entrepreneurship - The current environment is systematically clearing out entrepreneurs, reducing their roles to mere tools for larger platforms, and stifling genuine innovation [34][37]. - The lack of reasonable pricing, stable profits, and long-term investment in research and development is leading to fewer companies being profitable and surviving [35][36]. Employment Challenges - The concentration of the industry into a few dominant platforms is contributing to job losses, with monopolistic structures eliminating positions rather than technological advancements like AI [39][10]. - As industry profits shrink, salaries are also compressed, leading to fewer job opportunities for young people [11][39]. Comparison with Google - Google’s strength lies not in the number of applications but in its focus on foundational capabilities, allowing ecosystem partners to thrive and generating productivity-based revenue rather than merely capturing attention [40][41]. - The competitive landscape in China, characterized by internal strife, hinders the emergence of globally competitive companies [41][42]. Future Outlook - If the current competitive practices continue, the industry may end up with a few platforms and many dependent entities, leading to a degraded ecosystem rather than a mature industry [42][45]. - A healthy internet ecosystem should support entrepreneurship and job creation, rather than relying solely on free services as a competitive tool [44][51].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous, with brands actively opening new stores despite the onset of the off-peak season, which may lead to short-term data fluctuations [4] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing slight pressure, with platforms focusing on immediate retail market share and a gradual reduction in subsidies, although the data still shows resilience [4] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges due to the domestic consumption environment, with Alibaba integrating its ecosystem with the Qianwen app for AI shopping, while Pinduoduo is testing a new "Billion Supermarket" feature [4][12] - The music streaming platform is highlighted as a quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued interest in music subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [4] - The automotive service market is projected to see a year-over-year decline of 6% by December 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9% [4] - The AI and cloud sector is expected to grow, with Qianwen app integrating AI capabilities and significant investments in AI applications anticipated from both domestic and international tech giants [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The non-essential consumer sector index increased by 5.67%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.33 percentage points, with notable stock performances from Haidilao (+10.65%) and Luckin Coffee (+2.51%) [9][10] - The e-commerce index rose by 3.73%, with Alibaba's stock increasing by 13.45% and Pinduoduo declining by 11.44% [11][15] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Nasdaq Internet index fell by 3.59%, while the Hang Seng Media Index rose by 5.99%, with Netflix and Tencent Music experiencing declines [16][38] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $332.23 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 5.5% and 6.9% respectively [22][24] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline by 6% year-over-year by December 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9% [34] 1.2.4 O2O - The internet technology index rose by 3.73%, with significant stock movements in companies like Didi and JD Health [35][40] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq Internet index fell by 3.59%, with Alibaba and TSMC showing positive stock performance [38][44] 1.3 Media - The media index increased by 2.04%, with the advertising sector performing well while the film and television sector faced declines [45][46]

今日热点导览 TOP 3 大新闻 贾国龙罗永浩被微博禁言，罗永浩朋友圈最新发声 1月15日21时50分许，新黄河记者从罗永浩方面有关人士确认，@罗永浩的十字路口 以及@西贝贾国龙 两个账号均被禁言。微博CEO王高飞"来去之间"发 布微博：以后想论战，应该还是需要通过媒体采访的方式来进行~~"网络名人账号行为负面清单……（八）组织约架论战。因个人争端和利益冲突等原 因，策划或组织网上论战骂战、线下约架，攻击竞争对手，挑起网络戾气，占用公共资源。" 1月16日晚间，贾国龙曾在"西贝人心声"账号发布题为《西贝遭罗永浩污蔑回应（一）》的微博。"我是贾国龙。现在还没到十点。我在这里，做出全面回 应。这是第一篇。因为今天，罗永浩公开回应的最后一句，再一次恶意煽动公共情绪。"贾国龙表示："我首先明确表达，自去年9月10日至今，我本人和 公司所有员工，没有针对罗永浩报过一次警，这些年西贝依法纳税合法经营，从来没搞过任何蝇营狗苟之事。"他还表示，其妻子张丽平报的唯一一次 警，是全家被人肉，连不到五岁的小孙女信息都被挖出来，妻子到香山派出所报警。去年罗永浩制造的网暴期间，全国西贝门店服务员被骂被打被逼下跪 数十次。目前该内容已不 ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) closed down by 0.60% on January 16, with mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks [1][8]. - Among the stocks that increased, TSMC rose by 4.48%, Alibaba by 0.62%, and NIO by 1.64% [1][8]. - Stocks that declined included Pinduoduo down by 0.40%, NetEase down by 2.09%, and Tencent Music down by 4.98% [1][8]. Group 2 - The US stock market saw gains on Thursday, led by the chip and banking sectors, helping major indices rebound after two days of decline [2][9]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 292.81 points, or 0.60%, closing at 49,442.44 points; the Nasdaq rose by 58.27 points, or 0.25%, to 23,530.02 points; and the S&P 500 gained 17.87 points, or 0.26%, to 6,944.47 points [2][9]. Group 3 - A list of top-performing Chinese concept stocks includes Pintai with a rise of 26.10%, and Fuel Medical with an increase of 16.83% [3][11]. - The list of declining Chinese concept stocks features Fanhua Financial down by 14.04%, and Zhongchi Chefu down by 12.98% [6][14].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq down 1% [3][4] - Large technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with the index of the seven major U.S. tech companies falling by 1.32% [8][9] Technology Sector Performance - Facebook (Meta Platforms) fell by 2.47%, Amazon by 2.43%, and Microsoft by 2.40%, leading the decline among the major tech giants [9][10] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.26% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.21% [11][12] - Notable declines included Pinduoduo down 3.98%, Meituan down 3.75%, and NetEase down 2.74% [12][13] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated moderate growth in the U.S. economy and prices, with most regions reporting stable employment conditions [14][15] - Eight out of twelve Federal Reserve districts reported slight to moderate economic growth, with consumer spending showing slight to moderate increases attributed to the holiday shopping season [19][20] - Federal Reserve officials suggested a potential interest rate cut later this year if inflation continues to decline and the labor market stabilizes [22][23] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced significant volatility, with U.S. crude oil closing at $61.02 per barrel, a slight increase of 0.15%, while Brent crude rose by 0.08% to $65.52 per barrel [24][25] - Energy stocks surged, with ExxonMobil rising nearly 3%, Chevron over 2%, and ConocoPhillips more than 4% due to rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [27][28]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, the Nasdaq down 1.00%, and the S&P 500 down 0.53% [2] - Technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Oracle and Broadcom falling over 4%, and Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta dropping over 2% [2] - Notably, Intel saw a contrary increase, rising over 3% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.23%, with significant declines in several Chinese companies [2] - Ctrip fell over 17%, Pinduoduo dropped nearly 4%, and electric vehicle manufacturers such as Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng, along with Bawang Tea, all declined over 2% [2] - In contrast, Bilibili experienced a rise of over 6% [2]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, the Nasdaq down 1.00%, and the S&P 500 down 0.53% [1] - Technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Oracle and Broadcom falling over 4%, and Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta dropping over 2% [1] - Notably, Intel saw a contrary increase, rising over 3% [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.23% [1] - Among popular Chinese stocks, Meituan fell approximately 4%, Pinduoduo dropped 3.9%, and Netease, Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng all declined over 2% [1] - Conversely, Baidu rose by 0.8%, Tencent increased by 1%, and several companies including WeRide and Pony.ai saw gains of 1.3% and 1.8% respectively, while Alibaba increased by 1.9% [1]

Market - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all falling, primarily driven by poor performance in technology stocks, particularly chip stocks like Nvidia, which dropped due to export restrictions [2] - Bank stocks also struggled, with Wells Fargo's revenue falling short of expectations, while Bank of America and Citigroup exceeded expectations but could not support the high market levels. The banking sector faced additional pressure from Trump's call for credit card interest rate reforms [2] - Despite strong PPI and retail sales data, the market remained low due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran [2] Company - Tesla announced it will stop selling its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software at a fixed price and will instead offer it as a monthly subscription service starting at $99, leading to a 1.79% drop in its stock price [3][33] - Cerebras secured a significant contract with OpenAI worth over $10 billion, committing to provide 750 MW of computing power by 2028, which will help reduce its reliance on a single customer [32] - Wells Fargo reported profits below expectations, with a significant $612 million spent on severance costs, leading to its stock experiencing the largest intraday drop in six months [40] - Bank of America reported a 23% increase in stock trading revenue to $2.02 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, but concerns over costs led to a 5% drop in its stock price [41] - Boeing announced it received 1,173 net orders in 2025, surpassing Airbus, although its stock fell 1.7% in early trading [42]