证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 2026年03月03日 互联网行业 2026 年 3 月投资策略 优于大市 观察 Agent 对互联网生态流量和用户的影响，优选领先大模型厂商和算力供应 链 核心观点 行业研究·行业投资策略 互联网 2 月行情回顾：2 月恒生科技指数单月下跌 10.15%。同期，纳斯达克互 联网指数 2 月录得下跌，单月跌幅为 7.87%。个股方面，互联网多数股 票股价表现一致下跌，港股方面，京东集团、京东健康、阅文集团为本 月表现前三的股票，单月涨幅为-7.1%、-10.3%、-11.7%。其中京东集 团跑赢恒生科技指数 3.05pct，京东健康、阅文集团分别跑输恒生科技 指数 0.65pct、1.55pct。美股方面，拼多多、唯品会、微博为本月表现 前三的股票，单月涨幅为 2.7%、1.8%、-6.1%，跑赢纳斯达克指数 6.08pct、 5.18pct、-2.72pct。从市盈率看，恒生科技指数估值略有下降：截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，恒生科技指数 PE-TTM 为 21.20x，处于恒生科技指 数成立以来 17.18%分位点。 人工智能动态：1）谷歌：推出 AI 购 ...

海外科技 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Wind 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《春节成为 C 端 AI 全民普及拐点，国 产大模型跻身全球第一梯队—行业周 报》-2026.2.22 《AI 入口竞争加剧，关注 Moltbot 带 动的生态机会—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《RoboX 进展顺利，家用机器人新品 密集亮相—行业周报》-2026.1.25 国内 BC 端 AI 生态逐步进入加速节点，OpenAI 完 成全球 AI 领域迄今规模最大单笔融资 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790523070001 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | 国内：B/C 市场双轮驱动，国内 AI 市场或进入加速拐点 B 端/Agent 端：根据 O ...

2月27日热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数（HXC）收跌1.78%。 上涨股当中（按市值从高到低），腾讯音乐涨0.14%，富途控股涨1.05%，华住酒店集团涨2.82%，唯品 会涨2.14%，BOSS直聘涨0.49%，WSP控股涨0.10%，小马智行涨4.64%，HSAI涨1.00%，华视传媒涨 0.11%，欢聚涨0.50%。 下跌股当中（按市值从高到低），台积电跌2.81%，阿里巴巴跌2.78%，拼多多跌1.41%，网易跌 0.16%，日月光半导体跌3.44%，百度跌5.65%，京东跌2.03%，携程跌2.59%，中华电信跌1.17%，联电 跌2.32%，贝壳跌5.53%，中通跌2.46%，理想汽车跌2.98%，小鹏汽车跌2.26%，蔚来跌1.73%，哔哩哔 哩跌3.20%，中国新城农村跌2.03%，满帮跌0.57%，新东方跌2.06%，万国数据跌7.11%，名创优品跌 5.99%，亚朵集团跌1.12%，拓臻生物跌1.11%，慧荣科技跌8.34%，金山云跌2.70%，世纪互联跌 3.39%。 美股周四收盘涨跌不一。科技巨头英伟达和软件巨头Salesforce的最新业绩未能提振大盘。美国上周初 请失业 ...

几块钱包邮背后的商业逻辑：淘宝、拼多多不亏的秘密 打开淘宝、拼多多，五块九的发卡、九块九的数据线、十几块的家居好物，清一色标注"免费包邮"，难免让人疑惑：普通消费者寄一件快递就要10-20元， 商家卖这么便宜还包邮，难道真的不赔钱？其实，这绝非商家的"慈善行为"，而是一场由平台、商家、快递公司共同参与的精密商业游戏，背后藏着规模经 济、成本控制、流量运营的多重逻辑，低价都有其合理的商业支撑。 物流成本真相：规模之下的超低价合作 快递费并非凭空消失，而是在海量订单的支撑下，被压缩到了普通人难以想象的水平。淘宝、拼多多等头部电商平台，每天的订单量以数千万计，部分热门 商家单月发货量就能突破十万件，这种规模优势让他们拥有了与快递公司议价的绝对话语权。 普通消费者寄一件跨省快递，费用通常在10-15元，而大型电商商家通过签订长期大额合同，能将单件快递费压至2-5元，部分短途件甚至低至1元左右。快 递公司之所以愿意接受如此低的价格，核心在于"薄利多销"：海量订单能让运输、分拣、派送的单位成本大幅降低，一辆货车装满货物的运输成本，分摊到 每件商品上微乎其微。此外，电商订单多为标准化包裹，收件地址集中、分拣效率高，进一步降 ...

普通人寄件可能需要支付十到二十元的快递费，但对于淘宝上某个月销量达到十万件的商家而言，他们 直接与快递公司签订巨额合同，单件运费可能仅需两元。这种规模效应带来的成本优势，是小型卖家望 尘莫及的。这便是第一个秘密：大型电商平台的物流成本，远低于我们的想象。 手机屏幕上五块九包邮的商品，总会勾起我们内心深处的疑问：这怎么可能？区区几块钱，运费又该如 何承担？商家真的不赔本吗？这样的困惑，我们每个人都曾有过。在淘宝、拼多多等电商巨头的麾下， 几块钱就能买到商品还免费送货，这几乎成了日常。然而，这背后并非商家慷慨，而是一场精心策划的 商业博弈。 为什么这些电商平台会默许商家如此"疯狂"的操作？难道快递费用真的凭空消失了吗？让我们一起揭开 这层神秘的面纱，探究这些大型电商平台究竟在玩什么花样。 快递费的真实存在毋庸置疑，但电商平台与快递公司之间的合作，远比我们普通消费者所见的要复杂得 多。淘宝、拼多多等平台，日均订单量以百万计，高峰时一天可达数千万。面对如此庞大的体量，快递 企业能否与之达成一份颇具吸引力的价格协议？答案显而易见。 然而，仅凭低廉的物流成本，尚不足以完全解释为何商品还能实现包邮。我们需要进一步审视这些商 ...

美股中概股盘前普跌，拼多多跌1%，京东、腾讯音乐跌2%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车、百度、贝壳、阿里 巴巴跌3%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant transformation in rural consumption patterns in China, driven by the implementation of the "free delivery to villages" service by Pinduoduo, which has enhanced accessibility to goods and services for rural residents, especially during the 2026 Spring Festival [1][2][4]. Group 1: Rural Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival serves as a crucial consumption peak, reflecting the real changes in China's economy, with online ordering and local pickup becoming common practices in rural areas [1][2]. - Rural residents are increasingly purchasing a variety of goods online, including seasonal items like fruits and clothing, facilitated by improved logistics [6][7]. Group 2: Pinduoduo's Initiatives - Pinduoduo has initiated a "free delivery to villages" service, which began in late 2025, to address high logistics costs and improve the shopping experience for rural consumers [2][4][11]. - The service includes the establishment of county-level transfer warehouses and village collection points, significantly enhancing the logistics network in rural areas [2][4][27]. Group 3: Economic Impact - In 2025, rural retail sales exceeded 6.82 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a robust rural consumption market [14][27]. - The rural online retail market surpassed 3 trillion yuan for the first time, growing by 6.7%, showcasing the resilience and potential of rural markets in China's consumption landscape [14][27]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior Changes - The convenience of receiving packages at local collection points has led to a significant increase in online orders, with some rural stores reporting daily package volumes exceeding 80 [21][22]. - The shift in purchasing behavior allows residents to buy goods as needed rather than in bulk, reducing the pressure of seasonal shopping [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo is focusing on upgrading its supply chain and achieving high-quality development as part of its strategic plan for the next three years, aiming to "recreate Pinduoduo" through deepening its engagement in the Chinese supply chain [1] Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo launched its seventh Agricultural New Year Festival on January 6, 2025, emphasizing "direct supply from the origin" and eliminating middlemen to enhance the supply chain for agricultural products [4] - The festival included three core initiatives: 50% logistics subsidies for over 2,000 agricultural core production areas, a "live streaming training program" for over 100,000 farmers, and a "New Year Festival Assistance Zone" for products from poverty-stricken areas, which received 35% of the festival's total traffic [4][5] Financial Performance - By January 31, 2025, the Agricultural New Year Festival generated a transaction volume of 32.8 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year, benefiting over 1.2 million farmers [5] Long-term Plans - Pinduoduo's Chairman Chen Lei announced a "100 billion yuan support plan" on April 3, 2025, intending to invest over 100 billion yuan in resources over the next three years to enhance the e-commerce ecosystem and support merchant transformation [5][7] Governance Structure - On December 19, 2025, Pinduoduo upgraded its governance structure to implement a co-chairman system, with Chen Lei and Zhao Jiazhen serving as co-chairmen and co-CEOs [11] Brand Development - In July 2025, Pinduoduo opened its "black label store" certification system to quality small and medium-sized merchants, aiming to encourage brand development among all merchants, not just large enterprises [14] - The first batch of black label merchants saw a 22% increase in repurchase rates and a 9% decrease in return rates, indicating the effectiveness of this initiative [14] Marketing Strategy - Pinduoduo's "Double 11" shopping festival, launched on November 1, 2025, focused on "true low prices" without complex promotional rules, reinforcing its commitment to affordable pricing [15] - The festival featured a 10 billion yuan investment for direct price subsidies, reducing prices by 20%-50%, and included a dedicated section for agricultural products, which received significant traffic and support [15][17] Performance Metrics - The Double 11 event achieved a transaction volume growth of 32% year-on-year, with 112 billion yuan from industrial products and 28.6 billion yuan from agricultural products, marking record highs and surpassing 1 billion active buyers on the platform [17]

在"史上最长春节假期"加持下，2026年消费市场"马力十足"。乡村的年味，浸在朱红热烈的春联里、飘在翻滚的饭菜香气 里、落在邻里乡亲的问候声里，也装在翻山越岭、抵达乡村的每一个包裹里。 "我们村过年吃席爱喝果粒橙，走亲戚也好送这个。我年前专门从拼多多买了3提，放在店里卖。"在安徽巢湖边开小卖店的高 霞，自2025年底接入拼多多驿站业务后，零食调味、服饰日百等都改从线上"进货"，"现在快递不用另外加钱就能送到村口， 大家都爱在线上买，我们除夕前每天还有80件包裹，这是往年从没有过的事。" "我假期吃了20斤云南雪莲果，清甜、败火，吃着舒服。"家住陕西省秦巴山区的余胜民，年前花40多元拼单的雪莲果，三四 天就到了，"以前想都不敢想，云南的水果送到咱山里来，能这么划算、方便。" 春节，既是中国人最隆重的传统节日，也是全年消费的重要爆发点。它如同一面棱镜，折射出中国经济毛细血管的真实变 化：在广袤的乡野村屯，"线上拼单—村口取货—邻里分享"，正在成为消费日常。 这幅新图景的背后是国家邮政基础设施与电商平台服务的系统性下沉。自2025年四季度试点"免费送货入村"开始，拼多多已 在全国多地部署、建设包括县级中转仓、村级代 ...

Market - US stock market closed higher for the second consecutive day, with AI concept stocks rising broadly. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all increased. Nvidia and Salesforce are set to release earnings reports, leading investors to reassess tech stock valuations amid concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Nvidia's stock rose, but its recent performance has been poor, raising market concerns about AI spending being unsustainable. Some investors believe current market fears are excessive [2][4][5] Company - Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with core data center revenue growing 75% year-over-year, becoming a major driver. Adjusted earnings per share and total revenue also surpassed expectations, with net profit nearly doubling. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $78 billion, significantly outperforming other large tech stocks this year [25][26] - Microsoft shares rose 2.98% despite facing an antitrust investigation by Japan for potential unfair competition in the cloud services market [55] - Salesforce's fourth-quarter revenue was $11.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in two years. However, the company's guidance for fiscal year 2027 indicates a growth of only 10%-11%, which is below Wall Street's expectations. Salesforce has allocated $50 billion for stock buybacks [31] - Samsung launched its Galaxy S26 series, with prices increasing by $100 for two models. The average smartphone price is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to a shortage of storage chips [22] - Ctrip reported a 60% year-over-year increase in international OTA bookings for Q4 2025, serving approximately 20 million inbound tourists throughout the year [29]