证券研究报告|行业策略 2026 01 23 年 月 日 商社行业 2026 年度策略 内需以新谋变，出海绽放全球 分析师 毛弘毅 分析师 程子怡 执业证书编号：S0680525110003 执业证书编号：S0680524080004 邮箱：maohongyi@gszq.com 邮箱：chengziyi@gszq.com ➢ 展望2026年，我们认为内需与出海均有结构性布局的机会，其中： （一）内需主线：政策面与基本面共振向上，看好新服务新零售 2025年底政策定调促内需以及CPI转正，在此背景下，我们建议重视商社相关子板块基本面的边际变化，尤其是龙头企业有望率先且充分受益政策刺激， 基本面改善以逐渐消化估值，有共振向上的投资机会。其中： （1）已展现价增潜力的子板块，关注量的修复 酒店：休闲需求强劲，供给结构优化，价格持平微增。推荐华住集团-S、锦江酒店、首旅酒店、君亭酒店。 免税：海南封关，政策加持，数据企稳，中免份额提升。推荐中国中免，关注王府井。 分析师 李宏科 分析师 张冰清 分析师 陈天明 执业证书编号：S0680525090002 执业证书编号：S0680525110002 执业证书编号：S06 ...

2026年1月，国际局势因一桩看似荒诞却又充满复杂意味的夺岛事件再度升温——美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时，毫不 掩饰地表示：上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。他进一步透露，美国正在加大核能发展，宣称汽油价格很快将低于每加仑2美元，并对欧洲提出 批评，称欧洲某些地方已经面目全非，走错了方向。 **格陵兰岛的争夺：美国的野心与欧洲的抗拒** 格陵兰岛，位于北美洲东北部，虽然是丹麦的自治领地，但其地理战略地位不可小觑。特朗普公开表示，正寻求尽快就收购格陵兰岛展开谈判，并且直 言：除了美国，没有哪个国家有能力确保格陵兰岛的安全。他还批评丹麦在格陵兰岛问题上的忘恩负义，并宣称格陵兰岛是美国的核心国家安全利益。特 朗普澄清，美国并不打算，也不需要通过武力手段来解决格陵兰问题，然而其言辞中所传达的意图显然不容忽视。特朗普还在当天的演讲中提到，美国一 直以来受到北约的不公平对待，直言不讳地表达了对北约的强烈不满。与此同时，市场反应也不容小觑：现货黄金价格瞬间短线下挫40美元，随后回升， 最后稳定在4849.49美元/盎司。 **美股与纳斯达克的涨势：中美资本市场的联动** | 百度 | 1 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指短期阻力參考 27,188 點：聯儲局 12 月一如預期減息 0.25 厘，市場 預期 2026 年主席換屆後貨幣政策立場轉鴿，預測減息 2 次，高於聯儲局 預測，惟仍需觀望經濟數據及其餘委員取態。美國延續減息，內地放寬貨 幣政策的空間加大。2026 年為十五五規劃開局之年，市場預期內地第一 季政策發力，落實重點工作(擴內需、實現科技自主自強、反內卷)，並可 能降準降息。中證監重申推動各類中長期資金進一步提高入市規模比例， 惟近日滬深北交易所提高融資保證金比例，滬深北三市集體降槓桿，短期 內可能會出現回調壓力。港股對於全球流動性的變化更為敏感，在地緣政 治不穩下，外資或減慢流入；同時，北水自去年第四季以來顯著減慢流入， 港股上升動能不足，恒指短期料受制 2025 年 11 月高位 27,188 點。 短期看好板塊 航空股：超長春節假期迎旅遊高峰，人民幣升值油價偏軟利好盈利 高息股：近期市場風險偏好降低，資金料流入防守性板塊 今日市場焦點 日本、歐元區、美國1月製造業及服務業PMI；日本央行 ...

Whales with a lot of money to spend have taken a noticeably bullish stance on PDD Holdings.Looking at options history for PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD) we detected 34 trades.If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is accurate to state that 52% of the investors opened trades with bullish expectations and 47% with bearish.From the overall spotted trades, 7 are puts, for a total amount of $562,055 and 27, calls, for a total amount of $1,658,340.Projected Price TargetsBased on the trading activity, it appear ...

记者1月21日从国家税务总局上海市长宁区税务局获悉,上海寻梦信息技术有限公司("拼多多"平台运营主 体)未按照《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的要求报送涉税信息,被税务机关责令限期改正。企业 虽已进行整改但未在规定期限内完成,该局依法依规对"拼多多"作出罚款10万元的处罚决定。新华 记者1月21日从国家税务总局上海市长宁区税务局获悉,上海寻梦信息技术有限公司("拼多多"平台运营主 体)未按照《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的要求报送涉税信息,被税务机关责令限期改正。企业 虽已进行整改但未在规定期限内完成,该局依法依规对"拼多多"作出罚款10万元的处罚决定。新华 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.32%, PetroChina (00857) up 3.33%, CNOOC (00883) up 2.98%, and Sinopec (00386) up 3.01%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures for February closing at $60.62 per barrel, up 0.43%, and Brent crude oil futures for March at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49% [1] - CATL (03750) fell over 4%, down 4.4% as of the report. A report from Citi raised concerns about CATL's growth prospects due to slowing EV sales in China, rising lithium prices, and reduced export VAT rebates [1] - Kintor Pharmaceutical (02171) rose nearly 4% after announcing a clinical collaboration with Dispatch Bio to initiate a Phase I clinical trial in China by 2026 for a treatment method targeting solid tumors [1] Group 2 - Guoxia Technology (02655) surged over 7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with Shuneng Electric to enhance collaboration in the energy storage sector [2] - Kingsoft Biotech (01548) dropped over 6% after its affiliate Legend Biotech's stock fell more than 11%. Kingsoft reported that Legend's CARVYKTI had a net sales of approximately $555 million for Q4 [2] - Hong Kong real estate stocks saw a general rise, with Hysan Development (00014) up 5.17%, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) up 3.36%, and Wharf Real Estate (01997) up 4.02%. A report from Citi indicated a recovery in Hong Kong property prices, predicting a continued upward trend, albeit at a moderate pace due to tempered interest rate cut expectations [2] Group 3 - Baidu Group (09888) rose nearly 5%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in the past two months. The company launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, featuring 2.4 trillion parameters [3] - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) increased over 9%, reaching a new high of HKD 2.96, benefiting from a rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which increased by 74 points or 4.3% to 1803 points [3] - GDS Holdings (09698) rose nearly 3% after announcing the sale of shares in DayOne for $385 million, recovering approximately 95% of its investment principal with a return rate close to 6.5 times [4] Group 4 - The US stock market saw an expansion in gains, with the Nasdaq up 1%. Notable tech stocks like Intel (INTC.US) rose 11.72%, reaching a market cap of over $250 billion, the highest in four years [5] - The storage sector continued to strengthen, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 6.61% and Western Digital (WDC.US) up 8.49%. Counterpoint Research indicated that the storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing previous highs due to increased demand from AI and server capacity [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 2%, with popular Chinese stocks like Bilibili (BILI.US) up 5.65% and Baidu (BIDU.US) up 8.17% [6]

21 January 2026 | 4:49PM HKT Equity Research Navigating China Internet: Top AI/apps tracker: Laying out six key AI themes for 2026; focuses on AI adtech, AI assistants & chip supply As highlighted in our recent China Internet 2026 Outlook report, we lay out 6 key AI themes for 2026: 1) AI/adtech to drive further advertising budget shifts to ROI-based ads and new Answer & Generative Engine Optimization (AEO/GEO) marketing strategies; 2) AI model breakthroughs could center around long-context, multi-modal, wo ...

中央财经大学财政税务学院院长樊勇表示，当前互联网平台企业正在报送2025年第四季度相关涉税信 息，平台企业应依法履行信息报送义务，若违反规定要求，将面临相关法律风险，情节严重的，税务机 关可对其从重处罚并依法责令停业整顿。 国家发展改革委经济研究所研究员许生认为，《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的出台实施是国家 健全平台经济常态化监管制度的重要部署。税务机关依法依规对"拼多多"予以处罚，其警示教育意义远 比罚款金额更为重大，对规范平台经济秩序、促进公平竞争具有重要意义。头部平台企业更应该积极遵 守有关法律法规，带头营造法治公平的竞争环境，在自身规范发展的同时，推动行业长期健康发展。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：1月21日，据新华社从国家税务总局上海市长宁区税务局获悉，上海寻梦信息技术有限公司 （"拼多多"平台运营主体）未按照《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的要求报送涉税信息，被税务 机关责令限期改正。企业虽已进行整改但未在规定期限内完成，该局依法依规对"拼多多"作出罚款10万 元的处罚决定。 据介绍，《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》在2025 ...

Group 1 - Apple plans to transform Siri into its first chatbot product, expected to launch in the second half of 2026, relying on Google's Gemini model [2][3] - The chatbot, codenamed "CAMPOS," is set to be introduced in June 2026 and may run directly on Google Cloud using TPU chip technology [4] Group 2 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is meeting with top Middle Eastern investors to prepare for a new funding round, aiming to raise at least $50 billion, with a post-funding valuation expected between $750 billion and $830 billion [6] - The negotiations are in the early stages, and the funding amount may still be adjusted [6] Group 3 - Moore Threads expects a net profit loss of between 950 million to 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, despite projecting annual revenue of 1.45 billion to 1.52 billion yuan, representing a growth of 230.70% to 246.67% year-on-year [7] Group 4 - The European Union is set to simultaneously review Netflix and Paramount's bids for Warner Bros, marking an unusual competitive scrutiny that could reshape Hollywood's power dynamics [8] Group 5 - Xibei Restaurant Group completed a new round of financing on January 20, with new investors including Taizhou Xinrongtai Investment and former Ant Group CEO Hu Xiaoming, although the specific amount remains undisclosed [11][12] - This financing increased Xibei's registered capital from 89.9 million yuan to 101.68 million yuan, a 13.1% increase [12] Group 6 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is adjusting the margin ratios and price limits for copper and aluminum futures, increasing the price limit from 6% to 8% [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rebound following President Trump's cancellation of new tariffs on European countries and his announcement of a "framework agreement" regarding Greenland [1][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.21%, closing at 49,077.23 points; the S&P 500 increased by 1.16%, ending at 6,875.62 points; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18%, finishing at 23,224.82 points [2]. Political Developments - Trump stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would not use military force to acquire Greenland, which positively influenced the stock market. He mentioned a productive discussion with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, leading to a future agreement framework concerning Greenland and the Arctic region [3]. - Trump had previously announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, set to take effect on February 1, with a potential increase to 25% by June 1 if an agreement on Greenland was not reached [4]. Market Reactions - The stock market had previously declined sharply due to Trump's escalation of tariff threats and the possibility of military action regarding Greenland, marking the worst single-day performance since October 10 [6]. - The market's reaction to Trump's tariff cancellation reflects a trend where investors no longer assume his statements will be executed, indicating a level of unpredictability in his administration's policies [7]. Stock Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up 2.95%, Apple up 0.39%, Microsoft down 2.29%, Google up 1.98%, Amazon up 0.13%, Meta up 1.46%, Tesla up 2.91%, Broadcom down 1.14%, Oracle down 3.36%, Netflix down 2.18%, Micron Technology up 6.61%, AMD up 7.11%, and Intel up 11.72% [7]. - Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.21%, Alibaba up 3.87%, JD.com up 2.43%, Pinduoduo up 1.40%, NIO up 2.41%, Xpeng up 1.70%, Li Auto up 2.48%, Bilibili up 5.65%, Baidu up 8.17%, while NetEase fell 4.07%, Tencent Music down 0.80%, and Pony.ai up 2.55% [7].