[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|传媒 2026 年 1 月 20 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发传媒&海外】 Temu：商业模式迭代，应对监管挑战，持续高增长 | [Tabl 分析师： | 旷实 | | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 | | | SFC CE.no: BNV294 | | | 010-59136610 | | | kuangshi@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 相关研究： [Table_Report] | | | --- | --- | | 互联网传媒行业·AI 周度跟踪:千问 App 全面接入阿里生态，ChatGPT 新增广告功能 | 2026-01-18 | | 互联网行业·AI 跟踪:从 CES 2026 探寻 AI 应用的机会和空间 | 2026-01-12 | | 互联网传媒行业·AI 周度跟踪:智谱&MiniMax 港股上市，AI 应用方向迎来密集催化 | 2026-01-11 | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [本报告联系人： ...

作者｜昆仑万维创始人、昆仑天工董事长兼 CEO、知名投资人 周亚辉 首先要声明，我在过去十二个月没有跟字节、阿里、美团、腾讯做过交流，不存在摆弄消息之嫌，以下我的分析都是基于我多年经营企业形成的 战略洞察和推理能力。我首先要回答我在一年前给大家和自己提出来的一个问题，谁是十年后的中国首富，通过这一年的观察和思考，我可以明 确地回答自己，张一鸣同学将从现在到未来十年后甚至二十年后都是中国和亚洲的首富。 为什么这么认为，因为一鸣同学内心重新燃起了很强的欲望（或者说动力），这叠加他强大的学习能力、执行力和字节的资金、资源和用户，这 一轮的增长将非常巨大。前段时间的豆包手机已经轰动了业界，不光光是手机领域、机器人领域，自媒体车fans已经有报道，字节将与赛力斯合 作，进入汽车制造领域，这明显是剑指无人驾驶运营商位置；不仅仅是入地，字节还会上天，有自媒体小道消息，字节内部已经开始在研究搭建 太空算力。 随着TikTok问题的解决，字节的国际化扩展也会加快，尤其是豆包将加快出海速度。单从这些信息，是不足以很强的Conviction认定张一鸣同学是 十年后的首富的。最关键的一点是，未来中国AI时代的Super App（Ap ...

Key TakeawaysU.S. pre-market futures are significantly down, with major tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) seeing declines of over 2%, indicating a broad market sell-off.Amazon CEO Andy Jassy anticipates potential future workforce reductions due to efficiency gains from generative AI and notes that tariffs are beginning to impact prices for consumers.OpenAI and ServiceNow (NOW) have forged a significant three-year partnership to integrate AI agents into business software, sign ...

大部分用户的全平台客服功能都没法用，只有少数人说自己的是正常的。就连商家后台也弹出了"聊天功能已 关闭"的提醒，得联系平台客服申请恢复才行。 推测这大概率是区域性的服务器波动，或者平台在分批恢复功能导致的。截至发稿为止，拼多多官方暂未公开 回应。 1 月 20 日下午至傍晚，拼多多的客服聊天功能突发异常，聊天页面显示"聊天功能已关闭"。 大量用户跑到微博发帖询问，「拼多多 聊天关闭」话题冲上了科技热搜第一位。 ...

①【三大期指齐跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌1.64%，标普500指数期货跌1.82%，纳指期货跌2.25%。 ②【欧洲考虑抛售万亿美元资产，热门科技股普跌】热门科技股盘前普跌。截至发稿，英伟达下跌 3.06%，特斯拉下跌2.88%，美光下跌2.08%，AMD下跌3.51%，亚马逊下跌3.08%，谷歌下跌3.22%。消 息面上，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，从2月1日起，美国将对包括丹麦、德国、法国、英国等8个欧洲国 家加征10%关税。欧洲国家正考虑采取报复性关税及更广泛的经济反制措施，包括数万亿美元级别的资 产抛售。 ⑥【黄金首次站上4700美元关口】1月20日，黄金期现货价格双双冲上4700美元。截至发稿，哈莫尼黄 金上涨5.8%，黄金原野上涨5%，巴里克矿业上涨3.9%，纽蒙特股价上涨3.4%。黄金现货价格报4732.85 美元/盎司，黄金期货报4741.54美元/盎司。白银现货价格也触及95.5美元/盎司历史新高，现报95.24美 元/盎司。 ⑦【必和必拓上调2026财年铜产量预期】1月20日，必和必拓公布了其2026财年第二财季的部分关键产 品产量数据：当季铜产量为49.05万吨，同比下降4%；铁矿石产量达69 ...

在移动互联网时代，中国 超过 5 亿 MAU 的有 10 个之多，AI 时代超过 5 亿 MAU 的 Super App 大 概率就 3-4 个。 晚点专栏作者 丨 昆仑万维创始人周亚辉 所以你会看到过去两个季度美股 Big7 除了谷歌，其他包括微软、Meta、亚马逊、苹果都不涨或者都在 跌，所以长期来看，如果 X.ai 用户量起不来的话，谷歌一定还是会比特斯拉市值要大。所以张一鸣不成 为中国首富谁成为中国首富。 2024 年初我在媒体上总结 2023 年的时候，说字节 2023 年的大模型战略也就 60 分，但我同时补充一 句，以张一鸣、朱文佳这些人的能力，只要启动调整，最多 2 个月时间，就很快能够到 100 分。果然如 此，字节在过去两年的 AI 战略展现出极强的前瞻性与落地效率，我对字节 AI 2024 年的 AI 方面的战略 规划打 120 分，2025 年更高，可以到 180 分。 下面我们来演习下中国的 AI Native Super App 之战，在这之前我想先表达下我对一位企业家前辈的敬 意，2025 年我最尊敬的企业家是马云马老师，他让我看到老骥伏枥，志在千里的现代版。非常 Respect ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of AI in investment decisions, particularly in the context of Chinese internet companies and their overseas revenue potential [2][3]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue of Chinese Internet Companies - Chinese internet companies have an average overseas revenue exceeding 10%, with Pinduoduo leading at 35% [3]. - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba have low to high teens percentages of overseas revenue, indicating a growing trend towards international markets [3]. Group 2: Cloud Computing Sector - Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are rapidly expanding their international presence, with Alibaba planning new business regions in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, and Tencent deploying services in 22 regions globally [4]. - Morgan Stanley projects that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will exceed 40% by FY2027, while Tencent's enterprise service revenue is expected to grow by 25% by FY2026 [5]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving Services - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," is a leader in the sector, achieving over 250,000 weekly orders in fully autonomous mode as of Q3 2025, and has expanded to 22 cities including Dubai and Switzerland [7]. - Despite its leadership, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Baidu's revenue from this service will remain low and require continued investment [9]. Group 4: AI Models and Applications - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen model has gained significant traction globally, becoming the most downloaded AI model with over 700 million downloads by January 2026 [11]. - Kuaishou's Keling is expected to generate substantial revenue from overseas markets, with projections indicating an 80% year-on-year growth to reach $270 million by 2026, driven by B2B customer expansion [14].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a strategic turning point for Chinese internet giants, with increased investment in consumer-facing AI and competition around "AI super entry" while focusing on defending their core market positions [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The industry transition in 2026 is fundamentally driven by ByteDance's comprehensive breakthroughs, which are reshaping competitive dynamics [2] - ByteDance is projected to achieve a profit of $50 billion in 2025, significantly surpassing Tencent's $36 billion and Alibaba's $15 billion [2] - In the AI sector, ByteDance's Doubao app has over 100 million daily active users and is the leading consumer-level AI application in China [2] Group 2: Strategic Responses from Giants - In response to ByteDance's advancements, Alibaba and Tencent are compelled to pivot their strategies, increasing AI investments to over $60 billion collectively by 2026 [3] - Alibaba aims to maintain its leading position in e-commerce GMV, while Tencent accelerates AI features in WeChat and explores social AI applications through QQ [3] - The competitive landscape is expected to rationalize, improving unit economics in sectors like food delivery [3] Group 3: Key AI Themes Restructuring the Industry - Six key AI themes identified by Goldman Sachs will reshape the industry ecosystem in 2026, including advertising transformation, model competition, and the emergence of consumer AI entry points [4] - The advertising budget is shifting towards ROI-driven ads, with new strategies like AEO and GEO gaining traction [4] - The competition in AI models is intensifying, focusing on long context, multi-modal, and low-cost architectures [4] Group 4: Investment Framework - The investment landscape is shifting from a "broad market rally" to an "alpha era" focused on selective stock picking, emphasizing EPS delivery/growth, AI, and globalization narratives [6] - Companies benefiting from improving order trends and rationalized competition, such as Alibaba and JD.com, are highlighted for their potential in profit growth [7] - The focus is also on AI technology breakthroughs and global business expansion, with companies like Kuaishou and Baidu identified as key players [8] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Companies with stable cash flows and strong shareholder return capabilities are prioritized, particularly those with sufficient net cash and potential for dividend increases [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the e-commerce sector, indicating a slowdown in growth due to macroeconomic factors and high base effects from previous years [5]. Core Insights - In December, the online retail sales of physical goods grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a significant slowdown compared to previous months [2][5]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has integrated various services within its ecosystem, potentially enhancing user engagement and transaction efficiency, with expectations that AI will handle 60-70% of digital tasks in the next two years [3][5]. - The overall e-commerce market is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in 2025, with specific categories like food seeing a growth of 14.5% [2][5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Market Performance - December's online retail sales reached 1.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, a decline from 4.9% in October and 1.5% in November [2]. - For the entire year of 2025, online retail sales are expected to total 13.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to previous years [2]. Alibaba's Ecosystem Development - Alibaba's Qianwen app has connected with various services, launching over 400 AI functionalities, which allows users to complete transactions seamlessly [3]. - The monthly active users (MAU) of the Qianwen app surpassed 100 million, indicating rapid user growth [3]. Competitor Updates - Pinduoduo is testing a new "Billion Supermarket" initiative and has launched shared warehouse services to improve delivery efficiency [4]. - JD.com reported that its Plus members saved nearly 30 billion yuan in 2025, while Douyin e-commerce helped merchants save over 32 billion yuan in operational costs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong AI capabilities and platform ecosystems, suggesting that the profit uplift from AI tools will outweigh revenue impacts in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

图源丨Midjourney 凌晨四点，甘肃岷县。 罗伟有习惯性地在这个点醒来。这里是中国著名的"千年药乡"，空气里常年弥漫着一股淡淡的苦药 味。 几千公里外，广州番禺的一间恒温实验室里，灯火通明。毕业于耶鲁大学的化学硕士陆乔安正试图用 严谨的分子式，去解析一株草药里的有效成分。 按照旧有的逻辑，这两个人的人生轨迹永远不会相交。 但在刚刚过去的 2025 年，他们被一张无形的数字化大网紧紧拽到了一起。这张网的另一端， 连接 着拼多多 的 生态 关键词——"价值跃迁" ： 拼多多的下一个十年， 不 再 是单纯的撮合 成交 ， 而 是对中国古老供应链的一场彻底换血。 在拼多多的算法里，数以亿计零散、模糊的养生需求，正被翻译成精准的生产指令，倒逼着上游的工 厂与农田发生裂变。一场关于效率、信任与重构的深层试验，正在 悄然铺开。 汽修工的"游标卡尺"：给泥土里的黄芪定规矩 罗伟有至今还保留着做汽修工时的习惯，对"标准"有着近乎偏执的迷恋。 八年前，他在深圳做汽修，每一个零件都有精确的尺寸。那时候的他，相信世界是可以被游标卡尺丈 量的。 2018 年，生意遭遇重创，他带着一身疲惫回到老家岷县，接手了父辈耕耘了一辈子的土地 ...