Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted from $165 to $135, indicating a potential upside of 31.1% from the current price of $102.98 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue and gross profit impacted by tariff uncertainties affecting TEMU and rising short-term logistics costs. The mainland e-commerce advertising revenue growth met expectations, but net profit was below forecasts due to increased subsidies in response to national policies [3][7]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on profits in Q2 2025 due to these factors, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts by 9% and 25% respectively for 2025 [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a return to normalized profit levels by 2026, supported by strategic adjustments and merchant support plans [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised to RMB 449.83 billion, down from RMB 496.41 billion, reflecting a 9.4% decrease. For 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to be RMB 556.01 billion and RMB 630.39 billion, respectively [4][15]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 104.83 billion, a 25.4% decrease from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decline from 28.5% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated thereafter [4][15]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, which fell 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.92 billion, significantly below consensus estimates [7][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, down from 62% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [8][9]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $143.36 billion, with a year-to-date change of 6.18% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) with a target price range of $113 to $134 per share [3][4]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo reported Q1 2025 revenue of 95.67 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 10%, but GAAP net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan due to increased merchant support and changes in overseas tariff policies [1][2]. - The company is implementing a 100 billion yuan support plan aimed at enhancing the merchant ecosystem, which is expected to pressure short-term profitability but is viewed as a long-term investment for sustainable growth [1][4]. - The impact of tariff policies has led to a temporary slowdown in the growth of TEMU, but the long-term outlook for global market expansion and profitability remains positive [1][4]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: 2023 at 247.639 billion yuan, 2024 at 393.836 billion yuan, and 2025E at 455.799 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 90%, 59%, and 16% respectively [2][7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 67.899 billion yuan in 2023, 122.344 billion yuan in 2024, and 112.979 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 72%, 80%, and a decline of 8% respectively [2][7]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio (Non-GAAP) of 14.9 for 2023, decreasing to 5.7 by 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation trend over the forecast period [2][7]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -1.0%, a 6-month performance of +3.7%, and a 12-month performance of -34.6% [4]. - Relative performance indicates a decline of -4.8% over 1 month, -14.1% over 6 months, and -53.6% over 12 months compared to the market [4]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 567.859 million shares, with a market capitalization of $146.2 billion [3]. - The major shareholder, Huang Zheng, holds a 24.8% stake in the company [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, a decrease of 5 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-quality development strategies to foster a healthy merchant ecosystem, which is expected to support long-term sustainable growth [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to PDD Holdings with a 12-month sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) based target price of US$152, indicating an upside potential of 27.5% from the current price of US$119.24 [9][10]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported mixed results for 1Q25, with a 10% year-over-year increase in net revenues, but a significant 36% decline in adjusted EBIT. The online marketing revenue grew by 15% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - The negative market reaction, with a 17% drop in pre-market trading, was primarily due to a profit miss attributed to higher-than-expected Selling & Marketing expenses during a typically low season [1][2]. - The company is focusing on investments in its platform ecosystem to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), allowing them to compete effectively on pricing [1]. Revenue Performance - Online marketing revenue for 1Q25 was reported at RMB 48.722 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, which was in line with Goldman Sachs estimates and above the Visible Alpha consensus [2][10]. - Transaction commission revenue grew by only 6% year-over-year, falling short of expectations due to a shift in Temu's business model and ongoing investments in the platform ecosystem [2][10]. Future Outlook - Key discussion points for the results call include Pinduoduo's growth drivers, the impact of ongoing investments, and the differentiation of Temu's revenue outlook amidst changing market conditions [3]. - The report highlights potential challenges such as geopolitical headwinds, increased competition, and the need for reinvestments to sustain growth, which may affect core profit margins [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings Inc with a 12-month price target of US$165.00, down from a previous target of US$193.00 [8][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 10% year-over-year revenue growth to Rmb96 billion in 1Q25, which missed expectations by 8%, primarily due to transaction services linked to Temu [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb16.9 billion, missing by Rmb11 billion or 39%, attributed to increased sales and marketing spending and lower investment income [2][4]. - The management's cautious tone reflects macroeconomic uncertainties and significant investments impacting profitability, leading to expectations of street downgrades [12]. Revenue and Earnings Analysis - Online market services (OMS) revenue grew by 14.5%, slightly below the consensus of 18%, due to targeted subsidies affecting ad income [3]. - Transaction service revenue missed by Rmb6 billion, primarily due to Temu's challenges in the US market, including tariff impacts and logistical disruptions [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 44% year-over-year, indicating a shift in customer acquisition strategies [5]. - Investment income decreased significantly, with a net miss of Rmb2 billion, likely due to mark-to-market or impairment losses [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been cut by 28-43%, reflecting increased domestic investments and widening losses for Temu [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, estimating total revenues of Rmb406.1 billion for 2025, down from a prior estimate of Rmb456.5 billion [15]. - Non-GAAP net income for 2025 is projected at Rmb79.7 billion, a reduction of 43% from previous estimates [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a significant drop in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, with estimates for 2025 at 13.2x, down from 11.0x previously [15]. - The equity free cash flow yield is projected to be 11.7% for 2025, indicating strong cash generation potential despite current challenges [7]. - The valuation methodology is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with core e-commerce operations valued at Rmb137.9 billion [16]. Market Context - PDD Holdings operates in a competitive e-commerce landscape, focusing on value-for-money products and expanding into international markets through Temu [18]. - The report notes that domestic operations are currently profitable, contrasting with Temu's ongoing losses, which are impacting overall profitability [11].

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings, the parent company of Temu, experienced a significant decline in stock value following the announcement of its slowest revenue growth in three years and a sharp drop in profit, attributed to changes in tariff policies impacting its business model [1][4]. Financial Performance - PDD Holdings reported a revenue increase of 10% in the first quarter, reaching 95.67 billion yuan (approximately $13.31 billion), marking the slowest growth since early 2022 [4]. - Net profit nearly halved, plummeting 47% to around $2 billion during the same period, falling short of analysts' expectations of $3.63 billion [4]. Impact of Tariff Changes - The company's challenges were exacerbated by President Trump's termination of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed low-value packages to enter the US duty-free, leading to increased prices on Temu's platform and a subsequent decline in US sales [5][6]. - Following the tariff changes, imports valued under $800 faced a 120% tariff, which was later reduced to 54% by the White House, significantly impacting Temu's pricing strategy [5][6]. Strategic Adjustments - PDD Holdings has made substantial investments to support merchants and consumers, which has affected short-term profitability but aims to foster long-term growth and sustainability [2][7]. - The company is also facing challenges with its Pinduoduo platform in China due to a slowdown in consumer spending and increased competition from Alibaba and JD.com [7].

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Company Performance - PDD Holdings Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 per share, and down from $2.83 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -37.35% [1] - The company posted revenues of $13.18 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.93%, compared to $12.02 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - PDD Holdings Inc. shares have increased by approximately 22.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -1.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.85 on revenues of $15.62 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.99 on revenues of $64.94 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which PDD Holdings belongs, is currently ranked in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact stock performance [5][6]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were RMB 95,672.2 million (US$ 13,184.0 million), representing a 10% increase from RMB 86,812.1 million in Q1 2024[5] - Operating profit decreased by 38% to RMB 16,085.6 million (US$ 2,216.7 million) compared to RMB 25,973.7 million in the same quarter of 2024[7] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 14,741.8 million (US$ 2,031.5 million), a decrease of 47% from RMB 27,997.8 million in Q1 2024[10] - Revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased to RMB 95,672,175, representing a growth of 10.0% compared to RMB 86,812,059 in the same period of 2024[26] - Operating profit decreased to RMB 16,085,563 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, down 38.5% from RMB 25,973,653 in the prior year[26] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 14,741,829, a decline of 47.3% from RMB 27,997,826 in the same period of 2024[28] - Basic earnings per ADS were RMB 10.59 (US$ 1.46), down from RMB 20.33 in the same quarter of 2024[11] - Basic earnings per ordinary share decreased to 2.65 in 2025 from 5.08 in 2024, reflecting a decline of 47.8%[28] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 16,915,962, down 44.8% from RMB 30,601,805 in 2024[36] Revenue Sources - Revenues from online marketing services increased by 15% to RMB 48,722.2 million (US$ 6,714.1 million) from RMB 42,456.2 million in Q1 2024[8] - Revenues from transaction services rose by 6% to RMB 46,950.0 million (US$ 6,469.9 million) compared to RMB 44,355.8 million in the same quarter of 2024[8] Expenses - Sales and marketing expenses surged by 43% to RMB 33,402.7 million (US$ 4,603.0 million) from RMB 23,410.7 million in Q1 2024[8] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 18,259.7 million (US$ 2,516.3 million), a decrease of 36% from RMB 28,552.2 million in Q1 2024[9] - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 3,577,828 in 2025, an increase of 23.0% compared to RMB 2,909,620 in 2024[26] - Share-based compensation expenses included in total operating expenses were RMB 2,174,133 for the three months ended March 31, 2025[33] Cash and Liabilities - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled RMB 364.5 billion (US$ 50.2 billion) as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 331.6 billion as of December 31, 2024[12] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 200,811,846 as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 191,721,192, marking a rise of 4.7%[26] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period increased to RMB 135,258,089, up from RMB 114,704,917, indicating a growth of 17.9%[35] Strategic Plans - The company plans to continue investing in its ecosystem to support merchants and consumers amid external uncertainties[3] Share Information - The weighted-average number of ordinary shares outstanding increased slightly to 5,932,325 in 2025 from 5,907,021 in 2024[36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total revenues increased by 10% year over year to RMB 95.7 billion, driven by growth in online marketing services and transaction services [23] - Total cost of revenues rose by 25% to RMB 40.9 billion, primarily due to increased fulfillment and payment processing fees [24] - GAAP operating profit decreased to RMB 16.1 billion from RMB 26 billion in the same quarter last year, while non-GAAP operating profit fell to RMB 18.3 billion from RMB 28.6 billion [26] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 14.7 billion, down from RMB 28 billion in the same quarter last year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues from online marketing services were RMB 48.7 billion, up 15% year over year, while transaction services revenues were RMB 47 billion, up 6% [23] - Non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses increased by 44% to RMB 32.8 billion, reflecting increased promotional programs and marketing support for merchants [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted intensified competition in the Chinese e-commerce sector, impacting merchant performance and profitability [10] - The external policy environment, including tariffs, has created significant pressure for merchants, affecting their ability to adapt [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a high-quality development strategy, emphasizing ecosystem investments and merchant support programs, including a RMB 100 billion support initiative [8][17] - The strategy aims to enhance support for small and medium-sized merchants, driving broader supply chain upgrades and improving product offerings [18][46] - The company is committed to long-term intrinsic value over short-term financial results, prioritizing merchant and consumer needs [14][40] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that the slowdown in revenue growth and profit decline are due to external uncertainties and the mismatch between investment and return cycles [10][38] - The company expects continued challenges to profitability in the near term but remains focused on long-term investments in the ecosystem [40][41] Other Important Information - The company has launched initiatives to support agricultural products and enhance digital systems for local merchants, aiming to modernize the agriculture supply chain [19][20] - The company is enhancing consumer initiatives, including coupon programs and direct discounts, to stimulate demand and support merchants [21][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What preparations has the platform made in response to macro policy changes and the decline in net profit margins? - Management emphasized proactive actions and increased support for merchants through the RMB 100 billion support program to help them navigate external uncertainties [34][36] Question: What is the long-term impact of the RMB 100 billion support program on financial performance? - Management believes that investments in the merchant ecosystem will lead to higher quality products and services, fostering long-term healthy development [46][49] Question: How does management view competition in the current market environment? - Management acknowledged the challenges faced by merchants due to competition and the need for the platform to support them to ensure collective success [56] Question: What updates can be provided on overall consumption momentum during the June promotion? - Management highlighted efforts to simplify mechanisms and provide real savings to consumers, enhancing the shopping experience during promotional events [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total revenues increased by 10% year over year to RMB 95.7 billion, driven by online marketing services and transaction services [23][28] - Total cost of revenues rose by 25% to RMB 40.9 billion, primarily due to increased fulfillment and payment processing fees [24] - GAAP operating profit decreased to RMB 16.1 billion from RMB 26 billion in the same quarter last year, while non-GAAP operating profit fell to RMB 18.3 billion from RMB 28.6 billion [27][28] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 14.7 billion, down from RMB 28 billion in the same quarter last year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues from online marketing services were RMB 48.7 billion, up 15% year over year [23] - Revenues from transaction services increased to RMB 47 billion, a 6% rise from the previous year [23] - Non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses surged by 44% to RMB 32.8 billion, reflecting increased promotional efforts [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-commerce sector in China is experiencing intensified competition, impacting profit margins and growth rates [9][39] - The company is facing challenges in passing on policy incentives to consumers, putting merchants at a disadvantage compared to first-party businesses [10][50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a high-quality development strategy, emphasizing merchant support and ecosystem investments [7][8] - A new RMB 100 billion support program has been launched to enhance merchant support, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses [16][49] - The company aims to build a win-win ecosystem that benefits both merchants and consumers, prioritizing long-term intrinsic value over short-term financial results [12][42] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges posed by external policy changes and competition, emphasizing the need for increased support for merchants [36][38] - The company expects profitability to face challenges in the near term due to ongoing investments in the ecosystem [42] - Long-term growth is prioritized, with a focus on building a robust merchant ecosystem to ensure sustainable development [59] Other Important Information - The company has launched initiatives to support agricultural products and enhance supply chain transformation [19][20] - A digital system for agricultural product operations has been developed to modernize traditional supply chains [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What preparations has the platform made in response to macro policy changes? - Management emphasized proactive actions and increased support for merchants through the RMB 100 billion support program to help them navigate external uncertainties [36][38] Question: What factors contributed to the decline in net profit margins this quarter? - The decline is attributed to a slowdown in revenue growth and increased ecosystem investments, leading to a mismatch between investment and return cycles [39][41] Question: How will the RMB 100 billion support program be delivered to merchants? - The program will extend support to more small and medium-sized merchants, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [48][49] Question: How does the company respond to the National Subsidy Program? - The company has launched a dedicated page for the national subsidy program and is enhancing promotional efforts to provide additional savings to consumers [51]