在移动互联网时代，中国 超过 5 亿 MAU 的有 10 个之多，AI 时代超过 5 亿 MAU 的 Super App 大 概率就 3-4 个。 晚点专栏作者 丨 昆仑万维创始人周亚辉 所以你会看到过去两个季度美股 Big7 除了谷歌，其他包括微软、Meta、亚马逊、苹果都不涨或者都在 跌，所以长期来看，如果 X.ai 用户量起不来的话，谷歌一定还是会比特斯拉市值要大。所以张一鸣不成 为中国首富谁成为中国首富。 2024 年初我在媒体上总结 2023 年的时候，说字节 2023 年的大模型战略也就 60 分，但我同时补充一 句，以张一鸣、朱文佳这些人的能力，只要启动调整，最多 2 个月时间，就很快能够到 100 分。果然如 此，字节在过去两年的 AI 战略展现出极强的前瞻性与落地效率，我对字节 AI 2024 年的 AI 方面的战略 规划打 120 分，2025 年更高，可以到 180 分。 下面我们来演习下中国的 AI Native Super App 之战，在这之前我想先表达下我对一位企业家前辈的敬 意，2025 年我最尊敬的企业家是马云马老师，他让我看到老骥伏枥，志在千里的现代版。非常 Respect ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of AI in investment decisions, particularly in the context of Chinese internet companies and their overseas revenue potential [2][3]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue of Chinese Internet Companies - Chinese internet companies have an average overseas revenue exceeding 10%, with Pinduoduo leading at 35% [3]. - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba have low to high teens percentages of overseas revenue, indicating a growing trend towards international markets [3]. Group 2: Cloud Computing Sector - Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are rapidly expanding their international presence, with Alibaba planning new business regions in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, and Tencent deploying services in 22 regions globally [4]. - Morgan Stanley projects that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will exceed 40% by FY2027, while Tencent's enterprise service revenue is expected to grow by 25% by FY2026 [5]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving Services - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," is a leader in the sector, achieving over 250,000 weekly orders in fully autonomous mode as of Q3 2025, and has expanded to 22 cities including Dubai and Switzerland [7]. - Despite its leadership, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Baidu's revenue from this service will remain low and require continued investment [9]. Group 4: AI Models and Applications - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen model has gained significant traction globally, becoming the most downloaded AI model with over 700 million downloads by January 2026 [11]. - Kuaishou's Keling is expected to generate substantial revenue from overseas markets, with projections indicating an 80% year-on-year growth to reach $270 million by 2026, driven by B2B customer expansion [14].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a strategic turning point for Chinese internet giants, with increased investment in consumer-facing AI and competition around "AI super entry" while focusing on defending their core market positions [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The industry transition in 2026 is fundamentally driven by ByteDance's comprehensive breakthroughs, which are reshaping competitive dynamics [2] - ByteDance is projected to achieve a profit of $50 billion in 2025, significantly surpassing Tencent's $36 billion and Alibaba's $15 billion [2] - In the AI sector, ByteDance's Doubao app has over 100 million daily active users and is the leading consumer-level AI application in China [2] Group 2: Strategic Responses from Giants - In response to ByteDance's advancements, Alibaba and Tencent are compelled to pivot their strategies, increasing AI investments to over $60 billion collectively by 2026 [3] - Alibaba aims to maintain its leading position in e-commerce GMV, while Tencent accelerates AI features in WeChat and explores social AI applications through QQ [3] - The competitive landscape is expected to rationalize, improving unit economics in sectors like food delivery [3] Group 3: Key AI Themes Restructuring the Industry - Six key AI themes identified by Goldman Sachs will reshape the industry ecosystem in 2026, including advertising transformation, model competition, and the emergence of consumer AI entry points [4] - The advertising budget is shifting towards ROI-driven ads, with new strategies like AEO and GEO gaining traction [4] - The competition in AI models is intensifying, focusing on long context, multi-modal, and low-cost architectures [4] Group 4: Investment Framework - The investment landscape is shifting from a "broad market rally" to an "alpha era" focused on selective stock picking, emphasizing EPS delivery/growth, AI, and globalization narratives [6] - Companies benefiting from improving order trends and rationalized competition, such as Alibaba and JD.com, are highlighted for their potential in profit growth [7] - The focus is also on AI technology breakthroughs and global business expansion, with companies like Kuaishou and Baidu identified as key players [8] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Companies with stable cash flows and strong shareholder return capabilities are prioritized, particularly those with sufficient net cash and potential for dividend increases [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the e-commerce sector, indicating a slowdown in growth due to macroeconomic factors and high base effects from previous years [5]. Core Insights - In December, the online retail sales of physical goods grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a significant slowdown compared to previous months [2][5]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has integrated various services within its ecosystem, potentially enhancing user engagement and transaction efficiency, with expectations that AI will handle 60-70% of digital tasks in the next two years [3][5]. - The overall e-commerce market is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in 2025, with specific categories like food seeing a growth of 14.5% [2][5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Market Performance - December's online retail sales reached 1.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, a decline from 4.9% in October and 1.5% in November [2]. - For the entire year of 2025, online retail sales are expected to total 13.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to previous years [2]. Alibaba's Ecosystem Development - Alibaba's Qianwen app has connected with various services, launching over 400 AI functionalities, which allows users to complete transactions seamlessly [3]. - The monthly active users (MAU) of the Qianwen app surpassed 100 million, indicating rapid user growth [3]. Competitor Updates - Pinduoduo is testing a new "Billion Supermarket" initiative and has launched shared warehouse services to improve delivery efficiency [4]. - JD.com reported that its Plus members saved nearly 30 billion yuan in 2025, while Douyin e-commerce helped merchants save over 32 billion yuan in operational costs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong AI capabilities and platform ecosystems, suggesting that the profit uplift from AI tools will outweigh revenue impacts in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

图源丨Midjourney 凌晨四点，甘肃岷县。 罗伟有习惯性地在这个点醒来。这里是中国著名的"千年药乡"，空气里常年弥漫着一股淡淡的苦药 味。 几千公里外，广州番禺的一间恒温实验室里，灯火通明。毕业于耶鲁大学的化学硕士陆乔安正试图用 严谨的分子式，去解析一株草药里的有效成分。 按照旧有的逻辑，这两个人的人生轨迹永远不会相交。 但在刚刚过去的 2025 年，他们被一张无形的数字化大网紧紧拽到了一起。这张网的另一端， 连接 着拼多多 的 生态 关键词——"价值跃迁" ： 拼多多的下一个十年， 不 再 是单纯的撮合 成交 ， 而 是对中国古老供应链的一场彻底换血。 在拼多多的算法里，数以亿计零散、模糊的养生需求，正被翻译成精准的生产指令，倒逼着上游的工 厂与农田发生裂变。一场关于效率、信任与重构的深层试验，正在 悄然铺开。 汽修工的"游标卡尺"：给泥土里的黄芪定规矩 罗伟有至今还保留着做汽修工时的习惯，对"标准"有着近乎偏执的迷恋。 八年前，他在深圳做汽修，每一个零件都有精确的尺寸。那时候的他，相信世界是可以被游标卡尺丈 量的。 2018 年，生意遭遇重创，他带着一身疲惫回到老家岷县，接手了父辈耕耘了一辈子的土地 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report on Chinese tech stocks presents an optimistic outlook for AI development by 2026, driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The overseas expansion of internet companies is highlighted as a crucial strategy to address macroeconomic, competitive, regulatory, and geopolitical risks [1] Company Preferences - The report lists preferred stocks with an "overweight" rating, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin, Manbang, Meituan, Trip.com, Tongcheng Travel, TAL Education, and Beike [1]

本刊记者 周琦 2025年12月27日至28日，"拼多多杯"第三届科技小院大赛总决赛在海南三亚落幕。 历经资格审查、初赛函评、组别赛角逐及"院士飞行团"实地考评，从全国87个研究生培养单位247支队伍中脱颖而出的6支队伍斩获一等奖。 这场以"解民生、治学问"为主题的赛事，集结了诸多硬核的农业科技，见证了年轻学子与土地的双向奔赴。那些散落在田间地头的科技小院，正用技术与 实干，走出一条科技兴农的扎实路径。 师生们注册公司，与石磨企业、面包连锁店合作，打造"科技小院"IP产品。在拼多多渠道支持与直播助力下，小院已售出3600余袋面粉、2.2万个面包， 登上平台面包热销榜，切实带动当地农户增收。 西南科技大学四川峨边笋用竹科技小院的师生，常年驻守海拔1600～2000米的高山竹林。在没水没电没网的环境中，他们跑遍全县13个乡镇，收集100余 份种质资源，选育出高产富硒的"梦笋"新品种。 "拼多多杯"第三届科技小院大赛总决赛，晋级队伍向评审嘉宾进行项目展示。王晓 摄 原本亩产仅100斤的竹笋，如今能达到500斤。竹农余菲家80多亩竹林，2025年靠竹笋收入就达12万元。两年内，小院累计培训竹农500余人，研发的冷吃 ...

19 January 2026 | 1:21AM HKT Equity Research NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET Pivotal year for AI investments & Defending core positioning; Stock picking around EPS delivery, Narrative changes & Shareholder returns We see 2026 as a strategic pivot year for China internet mega-caps with stepping up of AI To-C investments (capex + opex), competition around creating AI super entry-points, along with more concerted efforts in defending their respective core #1 positioning. We believe the pivoting will be prompted by i ...

然而，这场资本盛宴的膨胀速度与随后的市场收缩同样迅猛。社区团购的迅猛发展引发了监管关注。2020年12月，国家市场监管总局联合商务部推出"九 个不得"新规，明确要求互联网平台企业不得通过低价倾销、达成垄断协议、掠夺性定价等危害公平竞争市场。 这一监管重拳成为行业转折点。 自2021年起，泡沫开始破裂，倒闭潮席卷而来：同程生活申请破产，食享会转型零食赛道，橙心优选收缩关城，京喜拼拼与十荟团也大幅缩减业务。在随 后的两年内，行业洗牌以惊人的速度完成：滴滴橙心优选率先全面退出，京东的京喜拼拼逐渐边缘化，阿里淘菜菜与美团优选大幅收缩区域布局，众多创 业公司则被迫停止全国扩张，回归区域经营或黯然离场。 为什么不行了？ 事实上，社区团购自诞生以来，其商业模式就面临盈利困难的根本性质疑。在行业初期，互联网巨头依赖"大量烧钱"和"不计成本地补贴"来抢占市场，通 过"一分钱秒杀"等低于成本价的倾销行为培养用户习惯，但这种"赔本赚吆喝"的模式始终无法解决盈利问题。尤其是生鲜品类作为主营，其高损耗、低毛 利的特点进一步加剧了盈利压力。当资本补贴退潮后，平台难以找到可持续的盈利模式，导致长期亏损，最终被验证为"无法带来预期的增长和利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of Google (Alphabet) is approximately $4 trillion, while the combined market capitalization of China's top internet companies is only about $1.8 trillion, indicating a significant disparity in valuation and market perception [25][28][30]. Market Capitalization Comparison - As of the end of 2025 or early 2026, the estimated market capitalizations of major companies are as follows: - Google (Alphabet): ~$40,000 million - Tencent: ~$5,917 million - Alibaba: ~$3,333 million - Xiaomi: ~$1,987 million - Pinduoduo: ~$1,486 million - Meituan: ~$975 million - NetEase: ~$852 million - JD: ~$471 million - Trip.com: ~$383 million - Kuaishou: ~$345 million - Tencent Music: ~$302 million - The total market capitalization of the top 10 Chinese internet companies is estimated to be around $17,000–20,000 million, which is more than 2.2 times less than that of Google [28][3][25]. Competitive Landscape - The primary issue in the Chinese internet sector is not a lack of effort but rather a misdirection in competitive strategies, focusing excessively on user acquisition, subsidies, and speed, leading to a dangerous cycle of competition [30][5]. - This competitive model, which relies on free services to gain scale and eliminate competitors, is damaging long-term sustainability in the industry [31][32]. Impact on Entrepreneurship - The current environment is systematically clearing out entrepreneurs, reducing their roles to mere tools for larger platforms, and stifling genuine innovation [34][37]. - The lack of reasonable pricing, stable profits, and long-term investment in research and development is leading to fewer companies being profitable and surviving [35][36]. Employment Challenges - The concentration of the industry into a few dominant platforms is contributing to job losses, with monopolistic structures eliminating positions rather than technological advancements like AI [39][10]. - As industry profits shrink, salaries are also compressed, leading to fewer job opportunities for young people [11][39]. Comparison with Google - Google’s strength lies not in the number of applications but in its focus on foundational capabilities, allowing ecosystem partners to thrive and generating productivity-based revenue rather than merely capturing attention [40][41]. - The competitive landscape in China, characterized by internal strife, hinders the emergence of globally competitive companies [41][42]. Future Outlook - If the current competitive practices continue, the industry may end up with a few platforms and many dependent entities, leading to a degraded ecosystem rather than a mature industry [42][45]. - A healthy internet ecosystem should support entrepreneurship and job creation, rather than relying solely on free services as a competitive tool [44][51].