复盘20家互联网公司2025年Q3广告营收财报数据，Morketing发现，中国互联网广告已从"增量抢流量"的野蛮生长时代，迈入"存量挖效率"的精细化对 决。平台增长的核心锚点也不再是流量多寡，而是技术缩短转化链路、提升单客价值的硬实力。 这场分化洗礼，正写下一条不容置疑的新规则：技术定效能，效能定营收，生态定格局。 | | 居昌 | 公司名 | 25Q1广告营收 | 25Q2广告营收 | 25Q3广告营收 | 24Q3广告营收 | 同比增长 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (1乙元) | (亿元) | (亿元) | (1乙元) | (%) | | | 客户管理收入 | 1 | 阿里巴尼 | 710.77 | 892.52 | 789.27 | 703.64 | 10 | | | 包括在线营销服务及其他业务的收入 | 2 | #33 | 487.22 | 557.03 | 533.48 | 493.51 | 8 | | | 此项为营销服务 | 3 | 腾讯 | 319 | 358 | 362 | 29 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 0.64% at 49,412.4 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% at 6,950.23 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.43% at 23,601.36 points [1][2]. Company Updates - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Apple increasing nearly 3% as it plans to announce a new version of Siri in late February, following a partnership with Google due to internal AI model challenges [2]. - Facebook rose over 2%, Google increased over 1%, while Tesla fell over 3% and Nvidia dropped 0.64% [2]. Earnings Season Insights - Over 90 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report quarterly earnings this week, including major players like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple. So far, 76% of the companies that have reported exceeded earnings expectations [3]. - Investors are particularly interested in details regarding AI plans, investment speeds, and expected profits to assess the sustainability of the current bull market [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 0.39%, with Intel dropping over 5.7% after a significant decline of 17.03% the previous week. Intel's projected revenue for Q1 is between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, below analyst expectations [3]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index decreased by 0.63%, with many popular Chinese stocks declining. Notable drops include Hesai down 10.06% and XPeng down 2.39%, while Li Auto rose 1.38% [3]. Commodity Market - Spot gold prices briefly surpassed $5,000 per ounce and then $5,100 per ounce. Long-term forecasts suggest that gold may continue to perform strongly, indicating a need for portfolio diversification [5]. - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rise, with Bitcoin surpassing $88,000, while Ethereum increased by 4.14% [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first policy decision of the year, with a 97.2% probability of maintaining the current overnight rate. Market speculation includes potential rate cuts later in the year [9].

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) is one of the Most Undervalued Foreign Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. On January 21, Reuters reported that PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) was fined 100,000 yuan, approximately $14,359, by the Shanghai district taxation bureau due to failure in submitting tax information as per the requirements. ​ The company has been facing challenges from regulators and increased competition, due to which management has warned of slowing growth in the coming quarters. As reported ear ...

岁末寒冬，年货市场的烟火气在一口口沸腾的火锅中抵达顶峰。从南海之滨的清甜椰香，到岭南大地的 弹牙肉丸，再到广阔西北的脂香羊肉，中国火锅的万千风味，正借着拼多多"多多好特产"的"隐形翅 膀"，跨越山海抵达千家万户。 凌晨4点，盐池县的王乐井乡还笼罩在西北冬夜的寒气中。牛庆磊已经来到牧场，开始了一天的工作。 他身后的养殖户们正将一批"吃中草药、喝碱水"长大的滩羊装车，这些羊即将被送往工厂，分割、包 装，然后通过快递发往上海、福建甚至香港等全国各地。 与此同时，1700多公里外的深圳，余华正在核对当天的椰子鸡订单。从海南运来的文昌鸡将在广东屠 宰，当天新鲜的椰子水和配套的沙姜、小米辣已准备就绪。这些订单大多来自北上广深，一份份清甜的 海南风味，即将成为这些城市家庭年节餐桌上的新宠。 资深电商人老唐的拼多多店铺最近也是"接单到手软"。潮汕牛肉丸、鲜切牛肉，加上毛肚、鸭肠，"鲜 掉眉毛"和"辣得过瘾"在这里实现破圈，也让老唐深深感受到"消费者口味没有封闭界限，潮汕的鲜、川 渝的辣，只要好吃，消费者都爱"。 火锅沸腾的，远不止于食材。海南的椰香、潮汕的"朥"香、宁夏的醇厚肉香，正在借由无数名商家的努 力和拼多多四通八达的 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025E: 114,810 million RMB - 2026E: 131,702 million RMB - 2027E: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, which is 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive moat in the market [31][42] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4,349 million RMB, 5,149 million RMB, and 5,888 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1,148 million RMB, 1,317 million RMB, and 1,561 million RMB [41][42] - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD [44][50]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025: 114,810 million RMB - 2026: 131,702 million RMB - 2027: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, achieving 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive edge in the market [31] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 434,930 million RMB, 514,929 million RMB, and 588,823 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 114,810 million RMB, 131,702 million RMB, and 156,059 million RMB [41][43] - The report estimates a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD per share, indicating a high margin of safety at the current stock price [44][50]

市场通常将猫狗拼并置，视为货架电商头部。拼多多过去一直在"省"的心智上更为醒目，而今猫狗纷纷下场竞逐代表着"快"的即时零售，拼多多会怎么做 自然受到多方关注。 零售总是与消费者的时空感知相关。即时零售发展至今，消费者对"30 分钟万物到家"的预期不断被校准和确认，什么时候买、需不需要提前囤货、能不 能等，都在重新安排。 过去一年电商平台以外卖为跳板做重履约，拼多多的动作却特立独行一些。据亿邦动力，日前拼多多联合大型仓配服务商推出共享仓仓配服务，为商家提 供仓储 + 履约一体化解决方案，实现全国范围次日达 / 后天达服务。 作为价格导向最为明确的电商平台之一，拼多多仍旧没有直接下场参与"即时"的正面竞争，但尝试切入一个更中间的位置：通过次日或后日达，去试探更 快履约的需求边界，但并未真正切换到即时零售那套重资产的履约体系。 因此，拼多多的即时零售实验，可能会成为一个消费者在时间和价格之间如何权衡的测试。在更大的尺度上，这关乎零售体系如何分配时空资源，以及不 同消费者关于多快好省的一整条需求光谱。 由于 2025 年外卖大战的催化，即时零售在非常短的时间内竞争白热化。 从 2 月京东入局到 7 月补贴战正酣，三大 ...

内容概要：当前，先买后付（BNPL）服务正步入"2.0"新阶段，特别是在中国，先买后付市场呈现出强 劲的增长势头，越来越多的消费者选择这种服务。据有关数据统计，先买后付占电子商务交易额的比重 达到2%，据此，2024年中国先买后付行业市场规模达到9282亿元，同比上涨2%。这一增长主要得益于 中国先买后付服务多由本地头部超级应用或知名电商平台直接提供，如蚂蚁花呗、京东白条、微信分付 等，这些头部应用和电商平台的推动，极大地促进了先买后付在中国市场的普及和业务增长。 相关上市企业：京东集团-SW（09618）、拼多多（PDD）、腾讯控股（00700）、美团-W（03690）、 乐信（LX）等。 相关企业：蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司、财付通支付科技有限公司、北京京东叁佰陆拾度电子商务有限 公司、深圳市欧信国际控股有限公司、海南仙麦厚福电子商务有限责任公司等。 关键词：先买后付(BNPL)行业发展历程、先买后付(BNPL)行业市场规模、先买后付(BNPL)行业竞争格 局、先买后付(BNPL)行业发展趋势 一、先买后付(BNPL)行业相关概述 先买后付(BNPL)也叫"先享后付"或"先用后付"，即购物时先收到商品再付款 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]