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“拒不分红” 的拼多多要当 “巴菲特”?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-27 09:03
这个季度,拼多多利息和投资收益单季直接拉到了百亿水准(以利息和股票投资收益为主),相比当季 258 亿的主营业务经营利润已经是一个不小的存在 了。 并在此基础上,展开思考一下,拼多多未来的资本配置可能方向有哪些? 当然从季度波动性的角度,平均单季还是在 53 亿上下的水平,与去年每个季度的水平相差不大。 本篇海豚君就借着这个机会,搓扁揉碎,仔细看看不分红、不回购,即使 TEMU 和主站需要投入,仍然能有大量利润剩余的拼多多,拿着这几年堆积的 小金库,实现的收益到底如何? 一、地主家到底堆了多少余粮? 海豚君之前说过,虽然拼多多一直强调不分红回购,但任何一个公司走过成长期、进入成熟期之后,都要回答一个核心问题:堆积的现金资产如何使用? 而炒股的收益基本以账面盈亏来计收益,随着炒股资金配置占比越来越多,这部分会明显放大公司利息和投资收益的波动,今年上半年两个季度利息和投 资收益的大幅波动,很可能是炒股的浮动盈亏有关。 另外,24 年的其他债券投资,主要是可转债或者杂类贷款等,整体与股票类似,以市场价值来计算盈亏。 (PS:持有到期债券基本可以理解为放贷收息,到期要拿回本金,以摊余成本法计盈亏,这里就不展开讲了;但 ...
单季理财赚百亿,“拒不分红” 拼多多要当 “巴菲特”?
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-27 06:25
并在此基础上,展开思考一下,拼多多未来的资本配置可能方向有哪些? 海豚君之前说过,虽然拼多多一直强调不分红回购,但任何一个公司走过成长期、进入成熟期之后,都要回答一个核心问题:堆积的现金资产如何使用? 这个季度,拼多多利息和投资收益单季直接拉到了百亿水准(以利息和股票投资收益为主),相比当季 258 亿的主营业务经营利润已经是一个不小的存在 了。 当然从季度波动性的角度,平均单季还是在 53 亿上下的水平,与去年每个季度的水平相差不大。 本篇海豚君就借着这个机会,搓扁揉碎,仔细看看不分红、不回购,即使 TEMU 和主站需要投入,仍然能有大量利润剩余的拼多多,拿着这几年堆积的 小金库,实现的收益到底如何? 一、地主家到底堆了多少余粮? 二季度,公司主要有四类资金属现金或者闲置资金,合计起来可以生息或投资的资产余额高达 5388 亿人民币,约合 750 亿美金。 a.货币基金是维持日常运转的,受限制现金是用户在拼多多在下单时候支付的购物款,存在拼多多的监管银行账户上,等用户确认收款了之后,会支付给 商家。 b. 这里最关键的闲置资金(基本不参与主营业务的价值创造),主要是短期投资和其他非流动资金,这两项其实就是按 ...
大行评级|建银国际:上调拼多多目标价至148美元 上调2025至27年盈测
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-27 03:52
建银国际发表研究报告指,拼多多次季盈利胜预期,主要是由于销售和市场开支出按季下降,以及利息 和投资收入增长超过一倍。该行认为,市场对拼多多旗下的电商购物平台Temu的潜在增长估值尚未充 分反映,将集团2025至27年的盈利预测上调16%、9%和12%,目标价由135美元上调至148美元,续 予"跑赢大市"评级。 ...
交银国际每日晨报-20250827
BOCOM International· 2025-08-27 01:46
Group 1: Pinduoduo (PDD US) - 2Q profit exceeded expectations mainly due to interest income and better-than-expected marketing expenses. Advertising revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while commission income slowed due to the contraction of full-service business and reduced growth in merchant support programs [1] - Despite maintaining support for merchants and user investments in the second half of the year, the impact of merchant support programs and national subsidies is expected to improve marginally. The overseas business disruptions are also anticipated to be less severe than in 2Q [1] - Based on the better-than-expected 2Q performance, the profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 4%, and the valuation has been adjusted to 2026, with the target price increased from $135 to $150, corresponding to an 11x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] Group 2: Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) - In 1H25, two-wheeler sales returned to normal rhythm, and gross margin reached a record high. Revenue for 1H25 was CNY 19.19 billion, up 33.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [4] - The sales volume of electric bicycles and scooters increased to 8.794 million units, surpassing the same period in 2024. The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 19.6%, setting a historical high [5] - The new national standard will be implemented on September 1, 2025, marking the start of a new industry cycle. Revenue forecasts for 2025-27 have been raised by 2%-4%, and net profit estimates have been adjusted upward by 1%-2% [5] Group 3: Deqi Pharmaceutical (6996 HK) - CLDN18.2 ADC data further confirms its potential as a best-in-class treatment, with larger sample clinical data showing improved response rates. The drug has received breakthrough therapy designation in mainland China for treating CLDN18.2 positive, HER2 negative gastric cancer [8] - The management maintains a forecast for global peak sales exceeding $5 billion, with ongoing development plans for various indications [8][9] - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.80, reflecting a nearly 30% increase in long-term sales forecasts for ATG022 [9] Group 4: Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) - In 1H25, the company reported a revenue increase of 47.6% to CNY 1.09 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 7.3 percentage points to 84.4%. The loss in 2Q was narrowed compared to previous periods [10] - The management expects product sales to grow by over 30% for the full year, aiming for breakeven in 2026 and profitability in 2027 [10][11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 103, reflecting the strong growth trajectory and potential of core assets [11] Group 5: Sunshine Power (300274 CH) - The company reported 2Q25 revenue and profit of CNY 24.5 billion and CNY 3.91 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33% and 37%, significantly exceeding market expectations [16] - The improvement in the US tariff situation since May has positively impacted the company's outlook, particularly for energy storage demand [16][17] - The target price has been raised to CNY 119, indicating a potential upside of 16% [17] Group 6: Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH) - The company reported a loss of CNY 158 million in 2Q25, slightly exceeding the forecasted median loss, with a gross margin of -2.1% [18] - Recent government initiatives to regulate the photovoltaic industry signal increased certainty in supply-side reforms, which may benefit the company [18] - The target price has been raised to CNY 57.70, reflecting improved market conditions and valuation [18]
ETF总规模突破5万亿,马斯克针对微软成立公司 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-08-27 00:29
点击按钮▲立即报名 特朗普公开罢免一名美联储理事 8月26日,美国总统特朗普公开了一封致美联储理事丽莎·库克的信件,宣布即刻将其免职。特朗普在发布的文件中写道,"依据美国宪法第二条 以及经修订的1913年《联邦储备法》赋予我的权力,现即刻免去库克在美国联邦储备理事会的职务"。自1913年美联储成立以来,虽然美国总统 偶尔会抨击其政策选择,但从未有美国总统罢免过美联储七人理事会成员。 |点评| 随着越来越多的跨国商品运输以小额包裹的方式进行,小额包裹确实应该被纳入海关关税征收范围内。然而,不管商品价值,每件商 品最少征收80美元的税收有些过于高昂。跨境电商正在寻找新的运货方式,例如多商家一起合租集装箱。无论如何,都增加了运输以及合规成 本,商品过海关的时间也将有所延长。 大部分选择小包裹运输的商品价格都相对较低,关税成本上升后,不少商品利润空间被抹平,商家只能被迫放弃美国市场。小额包裹免税政策 彻底取消后,对美国整体通胀的影响较为有限,部分对海淘有需求的美国居民感受将更加明显。 日本多地开征或拟征住宿税 8月26日消息,为应对境外游客激增带来的基础设施压力,日本42个地方政府已开始或计划征收住宿税,超过90个地 ...
猫狗围攻光明顶,拼多多悄悄入“总坛”
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-26 23:37
《倚天屠龙记》中,当六大门派围攻光明顶时,作为武林中的"下沉"门派,丐帮没有参与。等到六大门派撤退后,丐帮又联合了一些小帮派,"不讲江湖 规矩"地端了明教总坛。 丐帮和拼多多有着存在着诸多共性,比如都从群众中来,指导思想都是自下而上。 当淘系与京东两大头部电商平台,相继投入到围攻美团的战役上时,拼多多却悄悄进入了敌后。 一个是主站推进面向供给侧的千亿扶持,筛选商家,提升站内供给质量;另一个是美团优选撤退后,多多买菜在没有对手的情况下,以低成本的方式承接 增量。 二季度,拼多多收入仍然保持了两位数增长,财报显示,季度内总收入1039.9亿元,同比增长7%,低于上个季度的10%,远低于去年同期的86%。 经调整利润327.1亿元,虽然同比下滑5%,但远高于市场预期223.9亿元。面对利润超预期,拼多多方面提到,季度内的利润中包含了利息与投资收益,反 串分析师,相当于泼完冷水之后,打开风扇猛吹。 从财报中可以看到,经营利润率确实大幅下跌。拼多多二季度经营利润为258亿元,同比下滑21%。 面对不算差的数据,高管坚决的利空指引,市场分歧非常明显。 拼多多联席CEO赵家臻 除此之外,官方给出的财报通稿开头中,直接使用了 ...
美股三大指数均小幅收涨,礼来涨近6%,中概股蔚来涨超10%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-26 22:52
热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.72%。蔚来涨10.02%,亚朵涨5.84%,小鹏涨 5.46%,理想涨2.71%,华住涨2.33%,腾讯音乐、万国数据、小马智行、名创优品、中通快递、网易至 多涨1.98%。小米集团ADR涨1.65%,台积电ADR涨1.33%,腾讯控股ADR涨0.19%,拼多多ADR跌 格隆汇8月27日|美股低开高走,三大指数均小幅收涨。纳指涨0.44%,标普500指数涨0.41%,道指涨 0.3%。大型科技股多数上涨,特斯拉、英伟达涨超1%,苹果、奈飞、亚马逊、Meta小幅上涨;谷歌、 微软、英特尔小幅下跌。礼来涨近6%,公司口服GLP-1RAorforglipron肥胖合并2型糖尿病的3期临床研 究成功。 3.35%。 ...
Should You Stay Away From Alibaba Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?
ZACKS· 2025-08-26 16:56
Key Takeaways BABA faces intense competition and China's deflationary environment ahead of fiscal first-quarter.Alibaba's core e-commerce operations suffer from brutal price wars and weakening consumer demand pressures.Management's $600 million share buyback signals structural challenges rather than growth confidence.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 29.For the fiscal first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $34 ...
拼多多(PDD):利润表现亮眼,继续坚持投资电商生态
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-26 14:57
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 拼多多(PDD.O) 优于大市 2025Q2 财报点评:利润表现亮眼,继续坚持投资电商生态 核心观点 公司研究·海外公司财报点评 互联网·互联网Ⅱ | 证券分析师:张伦可 | 证券分析师:王颖婕 | | --- | --- | | 0755-81982651 | 0755-81983057 | 收入端:国内电商稳健增长,半托管转型拖累交易服务收入。25Q2 公司实现 营业收入 1040 亿元,同比+7%,其中在线营销服务收入 557 亿元,同比 +13%,预计公司广告货币化率已进入平稳期,广告收入的表现基本反映 出公司国内电商 GMV 表现保持稳健增长。交易服务收入 483 亿元,同比 +1%,较 Q1 继续降速,分拆来看:1)美团优选退出缓和社区团购竞争 格局,预计能够为多多买菜带来一定增量;2)Q2 开始正式推行千亿扶 持计划,结合其他商家扶持行为对主站佣金的影响仍然持续;3)Temu 受美国政策影响,转型半托管对收入继续带来影响(从全额法转为净额 法),但我们预计 temuQ2 海外整体 GMV 增速仍保持在 40%左右,尽管在 收缩了美国市场的投放后虽然出现用 ...
开源证券晨会纪要-20250826
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-26 14:42
Group 1: Industry Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion technology is diversifying, with significant public and private capital involvement, indicating a potential investment boom in the sector, with annual investments possibly reaching thousands of billions if commercialized successfully [6][9][8] - The Tokamak device is expected to benefit from breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting materials, potentially achieving grid-connected power generation by the 2030s [7] - The domestic Z-pinch hybrid reactor is likely to accelerate its development, with private capital showing increasing interest in FRC devices [8] Group 2: Company Updates - Kefu Medical (301087.SZ) - Kefu Medical reported H1 2025 revenue of 1.496 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.03% year-on-year, with a net profit of 167 million yuan, down 9.51% [11][13] - The company is focusing on overseas market expansion, having acquired established channels and customer resources through recent acquisitions [13][15] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating growth in core product categories and overseas business [11][13] Group 3: Company Updates - Shede Liquor (600702.SH) - Shede Liquor's H1 2025 revenue was 2.7 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 25% [17][18] - The company is expected to continue improving in the second half of 2025, with a focus on core markets and products [17][18] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, with a projected net profit growth of 100.3% in 2025 [17][18] Group 4: Company Updates - Pinduoduo (PDD.NASDAQ) - Pinduoduo's Q2 2025 revenue was 104 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, with a non-GAAP net profit of 32.7 billion yuan, down 5% [23][24] - The company is adjusting its domestic commission policies and expanding overseas, with a focus on long-term sustainable development [23][25] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of 99 billion yuan for 2025 [23][24] Group 5: Company Updates - Poly Property (06049.HK) - Poly Property reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.392 billion yuan, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 891 million yuan, up 5.3% [27][28] - The company is expanding its property management scale and optimizing its value-added business structure [27][28] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 1.58 billion yuan in 2025 [27][28] Group 6: Company Updates - Longping High-Tech (000998.SZ) - Longping High-Tech reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.166 billion yuan, down 16.11% year-on-year, with a net loss of 164 million yuan [44][45] - The company is focusing on improving its rice seed business while addressing challenges in the corn seed market [44][45] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 348 million yuan in 2025 [44][45] Group 7: Company Updates - Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) - Hualu Hengsheng reported H1 2025 revenue of 15.764 billion yuan, down 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan, down 29.47% [48][49] - The company is investing in technological upgrades to improve efficiency and maintain a "buy" rating [48][49] - The company anticipates a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan in 2025 [48][49]