Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of 3.35% in Q4 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.66% but underperforming the Russell 1000 Value Index's 3.81% return, indicating a challenging year without standout performers [1] - The firm emphasizes strengthening portfolio outcomes rather than chasing short-term winners, advocating for a focus on real companies during periods of excessive speculation [1] Company Performance - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) was identified as a performance detractor in 2025, with a one-month return of -4.88% and a 52-week loss of 38.04%, leading to a market capitalization of $54.337 billion [2][3] - Despite operational progress in stabilizing transaction margins and improving cost discipline, PayPal's growth in branded checkout volume was disappointing, leading to negative market sentiment [3] Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Interest - PayPal is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 86 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q3 2025, a slight decrease from 89 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging PayPal's potential, there is a belief that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes providing actionable and clear investment ideas through independent research, aiming to help members outperform the S&P 500 and avoid significant losses during market volatility [1] Group 1 - The investment style promoted by the company focuses on delivering in-depth articles on actionable ideas at least once a week [1] - The company claims to have assisted its members in not only beating the S&P 500 but also in avoiding heavy drawdowns amid extreme volatility in both equity and bond markets [1]

吴说获悉，PayPal 表示，自 2025 税年起，美国数字资产经纪商（包括 PayPal）需按要求向 IRS 申报加 密资产处置情况，并向用户提供 Form 1099-DA。若用户在 PayPal 钱包内发生加密资产的出售或兑换等 处置行为，PayPal 将在次年 2 月 15 日前向用户发送 1099-DA 表格，并提供年度盈亏表和交易汇总，用 于填写 Form 8949 申报资本利得或亏损。PayPal 同时提醒，平台外的加密资产交易需由用户自行记录并 申报。 （来源：吴说） ...

Industry Overview - The fintech market is projected to expand rapidly over the next decade, driven by factors such as the growth of e-commerce [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider shares of leading companies in the fintech sector for long-term performance [2] Company: Adyen - Adyen simplifies payment systems for companies, allowing them to accept payments for online and in-person transactions through a single integrated platform, attracting major clients like Etsy, Spotify, and McDonald's [3] - Despite struggling in recent years, Adyen's net revenue increased by 20% year over year to 1.1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in the first half of 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 50%, up from 46% [5] - The company reported a net income of 481 million euros, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase [5] - Adyen maintains a strong economic moat due to high switching costs for clients, and its expansion into the U.S. market and focus on large-format retail clients present attractive growth prospects [7][8] Company: PayPal - PayPal has faced challenges with subpar financial results and user growth, processing $458.1 billion in payment volume, which is an 8% year-over-year increase, with 438 million active accounts [9] - The company is entering the digital advertising sector, leveraging transaction and consumer preference data to enhance its ad platform [10][12] - PayPal's strong brand recognition and trust position it well to benefit from the growing popularity of digital wallets, making it a potential leader in the fintech market over the next decade [13]

Core Insights - Wedgewood Partners anticipates stronger market volatility in the coming years and has moderated its enthusiasm for investments [1] - The Wedgewood Composite returned -1.8% in Q4 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's 2.7% and other indices [1] - The firm's focus on high-quality stocks has historically been successful since 1992, but faced challenges in 2025 due to poor stock selection and underweight positions in AI stocks [1] Company Performance - PayPal Holdings, Inc. was highlighted as a performance detractor in Wedgewood's Q4 2025 investor letter [2][3] - PayPal's stock closed at $56.88 on January 16, 2026, with a one-month return of -4.88% and a 52-week loss of 38.04% [2] - The company reported +8% volume growth in its branded checkout portfolio, but experienced a slowdown in volume late in the quarter due to a weaker macro environment [3] Investment Strategy - Wedgewood Partners trimmed its PayPal positions during the quarter, citing concerns over slowing transaction volumes and increased expenses impacting profit growth [3] - PayPal's investments in the emerging agentic commerce industry, including partnerships with AI developers, were noted as a strategic move, but raised concerns about future profitability [3]

Company Overview - Payoneer reported Q3 revenue of $270.9 million, a 47% increase year-over-year, but annual revenue growth for 2025 was only 0.47%, indicating stagnation [2] - PayPal reported Q3 revenue of $8.42 billion, up 7.3% year-over-year, and beat analyst estimates in all four quarters of 2025 [5] Earnings Performance - Payoneer's quarterly earnings per share (EPS) fell from $0.11 in Q3 2024 to $0.04 in Q3 2025, with full-year EPS declining 43.8% from $0.33 in 2024 to $0.19 in 2025 [2][3] - PayPal's full-year EPS decreased by 21.3% from $4.98 in 2024 to $3.92 in 2025, marking the lowest EPS since 2020 [5] Operational Metrics - Payoneer's operating margin is at negative 3%, indicating losses on core operations, while its return on assets is 1.08% [3] - PayPal's operating margin is 19.2% and return on equity is 24.4%, reflecting stronger operational health compared to Payoneer [6] Stock Valuation - Payoneer trades at a trailing P/E of 30x, which is considered expensive given its stalled revenue growth [3] - PayPal trades at a trailing P/E of 11.4x and a forward P/E of 9.8x, suggesting the market anticipates slower growth ahead [6] Insider Activity - Payoneer insiders, including CEO John Caplan and other executives, sold shares during the stock's 48% annual decline, with no insider purchases reported [4] Market Outlook - The stablecoin market remains speculative, with low odds assigned to major tech platforms launching USD stablecoins in 2026 [8] - Payoneer is viewed as a higher-risk, higher-reward investment if stablecoins reshape B2B payments, while PayPal is considered a safer hold for profitability and scale [10]

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is considered one of the most undervalued fintech stocks currently available for investment [1] - Analysts from Raymond James and Stephens have maintained a Hold rating on PayPal, with price target adjustments reflecting cautious sentiment towards the stock [1][2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Charles Nabhan from Stephens lowered the price target for PayPal from $75 to $65 while reiterating a Hold rating [1] - Raymond James also maintained a Hold rating without disclosing a price target, indicating a cautious approach as the company nears its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings release [1][2] Financial Performance and Growth Estimates - Raymond James has reduced Branded Total Payment Volume growth estimates by 300 basis points to 2% for Q4 2025, citing management's comments on expected slower growth [2] - The firm anticipates that low single-digit growth will continue into the first half of 2026 due to macroeconomic pressures and slower adoption of new products [2] Sector Outlook - Stephens acknowledges that 2025 was a challenging year for the fintech sector but sees potential for improved investor sentiment and better returns in 2026 [3] - PayPal operates a technology platform that facilitates digital payments for both merchants and consumers, positioning it within a growing market [3]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] Group 1: AI and Energy Demand - AI technologies, particularly large language models like ChatGPT, are extremely energy-intensive, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities [2] - The increasing demand for AI is straining global power grids, leading to rising electricity prices and a need for utilities to expand capacity [2] - Industry leaders, including Sam Altman and Elon Musk, have highlighted the critical link between AI development and energy availability, warning of potential shortages [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunity - A specific company is positioned as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the anticipated surge in energy demand from AI data centers [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is described as a "toll booth" operator in the energy market, profiting from the increasing need for electricity [5][6] - The company is debt-free and has significant cash reserves, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, making it an attractive investment option [8] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is involved in large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy, which is crucial for America's future power strategy [7] - It has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related venture, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities without high premiums [9] - The stock is currently undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which presents a compelling investment case given its ties to the booming AI and energy sectors [10] Group 4: Future Trends - The ongoing AI infrastructure supercycle, combined with the onshoring boom driven by tariffs, is expected to create significant growth opportunities for the company [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is anticipated to drive rapid advancements and innovation, further solidifying the importance of energy infrastructure in supporting this growth [12]

Core Insights - PayPal has experienced positive earnings surprises over the last two quarters, yet investor sentiment remains cautious regarding the company's growth prospects, leading to an 18% decline in stock value [1]. Company Performance - Despite recent positive earnings, PayPal's stock has decreased by 18%, indicating investor skepticism about future growth [1]. Analyst Background - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in finance, particularly in oilfield and real estate industries, and their recent focus on equity research for a Dubai-based family office with over $20 million in assets under management [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gruppo Caltagirone, a significant investor in Monte dei Paschi di Siena, clarified that speculation regarding a conflict with the bank's CEO, Luigi Lovaglio, is unfounded, emphasizing that the board is simply engaged in routine discussions [1] Group 1 - Gruppo Caltagirone is a major investor in Monte dei Paschi di Siena [1] - The company stated that there is no clash with CEO Luigi Lovaglio [1] - The board's activities are characterized as normal discussions rather than conflicts [1]