Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] - Per-store operating expenses are anticipated to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth expected in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] Competitive Landscape and Traffic Concerns - The analyst notes that tougher competition and ongoing price-value concerns may impact traffic, which is projected to be healthier in 2026 but still below consensus expectations [5] - Street models underestimate 2026 store operating expenses by only 2.5%, with every 100 basis points of weekly operating expense growth reducing EPS by roughly 10 cents [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading lower by 1.31% at $86.07 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] Traffic and Competition - Management anticipates improved traffic from the "green apron service" initiative, which aims to enhance operational efficiency [4] - Despite projections for healthier 2026 traffic, it remains below consensus expectations due to increased competition and ongoing price-value concerns [5] Operating Expenses - Per-store operating expenses are expected to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth anticipated in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] - The analyst notes that the Street underestimates 2026 store operating expenses by about 2.5% [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading down by 1.31% to $86.07 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is undergoing a turnaround similar to Nike, with CEO Brian Niccol emphasizing that this process will take time [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The recent sluggishness in Starbucks shares is attributed to analyst over-optimism rather than the actual turnaround progress [2]. - There is a belief that the current quarter may be the last challenging period for Starbucks, with expectations for a positive outlook by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - While Starbucks is seen as a potential investment, there is a conviction that certain AI stocks may offer higher returns with limited downside risk [3].

Market Overview - Futures are trading higher, driven by positive news regarding a potential trade agreement with China and the TikTok issue resolution [1] - Wall Street is anticipating a significant number of earnings reports this week, particularly from technology giants in the Magnificent 7 [1] - Strong retail participation and new overseas investments are contributing to the momentum towards the S&P 500 reaching 7000 [1] Treasury Yields - Yields are mixed, with shorter maturities trading modestly lower and longer maturities, such as the 30-year and 20-year bonds, showing small gains [2] - The Treasury Market and Wall Street are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week [2] Oil & Gas - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude started the week slightly lower after a rally that pushed WTI above $60 [3] - OPEC+ production increases are identified as the main reason for recent pricing dislocation [3] - Analysts expect a jump in gasoline demand as prices drop nationwide heading into the holidays [3] - Natural Gas prices increased over 4%, closing at $3.44 [3] Gold Market - Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce after a significant rally, with analysts noting improved risk appetite and profit-taking [4] - A potential correction in Gold prices could last for months, although Central Bank buying may provide support [4] - Some analysts are projecting Gold prices to reach $5,000 and Silver to $60 [4] Analyst Ratings - CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) upgraded to Buy with a target price of $706 [5] - Southern Copper (SCCO) target price raised from $89 to $115, but maintains a Sell rating [5] - DTE Energy (DTE) initiated with an Overweight rating and a $157 target price [6] - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) started with a Neutral rating and a target price of $300 [6] - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) initiated with a Neutral rating and a target price of $84 [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) initiated with an Overweight rating and a $478 target price [6] - Fox Corporation (FOXA) upgraded to Buy with a target price of $97 [6] - BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) target price lowered from $90 to $80 while maintaining a Buy rating [6] - Dow Inc. (DOW) target price raised from $24 to $27 while keeping a Neutral rating [6] - Brinker International (EAT) initiated with an Outperform rating and a target price of $155 [6]

Core Insights - Boyu Capital has emerged as the preferred partner for Starbucks' (SBUX.US) China business acquisition, with a potential valuation exceeding $4 billion [1][2] - The deal is part of Starbucks' efforts to revitalize its operations in its second-largest market, China [1] - Negotiations between Starbucks and Boyu Capital may take several months, and there is no guarantee that a deal will be finalized [1] Company Overview - Starbucks opened its first store in mainland China in 1999 and currently operates approximately 7,800 stores across over 250 cities [2] - The company aims to increase its store count in China to 20,000, despite facing intense competition from local brands, particularly Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US) [2] - Starbucks' CEO Brian Niccol indicated that the process of bringing in new investors has attracted over 20 potential investment parties [2] Investment Landscape - Other private equity firms involved in the bidding for Starbucks' China business include Carlyle, Yintai Group, FountainVest Partners, KKR, Hillhouse Capital, and Primavera Capital [2] - Boyu Capital, founded in 2011 and headquartered in the Cayman Islands, focuses on private equity, public market equities, real estate, and infrastructure investments, with a primary focus on technology, consumer retail, and healthcare sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks (SBUX.US) considers Boyu Capital as the leading bidder for its China operations, with a potential valuation exceeding $4 billion for Starbucks China [1] Group 1 - Boyu Capital is seeking to acquire a controlling stake in Starbucks China [1] - Boyu's bid for Starbucks China reportedly exceeds that of other bidders, including Carlyle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Bawang Chaji store next to Starbucks at the Oriental Pearl Tower signifies a shift in the new tea beverage industry from "expanding stores" to "operating quality stores," reflecting a deeper transformation in consumer behavior and market dynamics [2][3][4]. Industry Trends - The new tea beverage industry is transitioning from a "scale-driven" model to an "efficiency-driven" model, marking a new development phase [3]. - The domestic tourism market has seen explosive growth, with 4.998 billion trips taken by residents in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 760 million trips or 18% year-on-year [3]. - The cultural industry is projected to achieve a revenue of 19.14 trillion yuan in 2024, a 37.7% increase compared to 2020 [3]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring "cultural tourism + commercial" integrated experiences over traditional natural attractions, with flagship stores becoming key venues for tea brands to capture this trend [4][5]. - The demand for experiential consumption has shifted from merely "seeing" to "experiencing," driving upgrades in consumer behavior and preferences [5][7]. Brand Performance - Bawang Chaji's stores in Shanghai, Sichuan, and Guangzhou are achieving daily sales of over 2,500 cups, with the Oriental Pearl store becoming a popular tourist spot [4]. - During the recent holiday season, several new tea brands saw sales growth in tourist areas, with some stores experiencing sales increases of over 300% compared to the pre-holiday period [4]. Strategic Positioning - Bawang Chaji's success in tourist areas is attributed to its strategic differentiation in a highly competitive market, focusing on spatial and experiential reconfiguration rather than solely on product innovation [5][7]. - The presence of Bawang Chaji alongside Starbucks in prime locations indicates a shift in the narrative of commercial value at landmark sites, reflecting evolving consumer expectations and brand dynamics [7][12]. International Expansion - Bawang Chaji is employing cultural integration strategies in international markets, such as opening a flagship store in Singapore that incorporates local cultural elements [8][10]. - The brand's entry into the North American market includes collaborations with cultural institutions, enhancing its appeal through localized product offerings [12][15]. Cultural Significance - Bawang Chaji positions itself as a promoter of Eastern tea culture while adapting to local consumer preferences, thereby redefining the role of tea beverages in urban cultural contexts [15][18]. - The brand's product design and marketing strategies emphasize cultural storytelling, transforming tea consumption into a meaningful experience for consumers [18].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior, particularly in the context of equity analysis and research [1]. Group 1: Professional Background - The author has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction [1]. - The professional background includes advising on and implementing multi-asset strategies, with a strong emphasis on equities and derivatives [1]. - The author holds a BA in Financial Economics and an MA in Financial Markets, indicating a solid academic foundation in finance [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The article promotes the idea that investing should be accessible, inspiring, and empowering, aiming to build confidence in long-term investing [1]. - The author expresses a commitment to sharing insights and exchanging ideas with fellow investors to enhance collective knowledge and investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis Focus - The author closely follows EU and US central bank policies, sector rotation, and sentiment dynamics, which are crucial for constructing actionable investment strategies [1]. - The analysis reflects a deep understanding of how macroeconomic factors can impact market conditions and investor behavior over time [1].

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is expected to report a quarterly performance that may be "a little stronger than expected" according to Jim Cramer [1] - The company's CEO, Brian Niccol, has been characterized as humble, with a focus on gradual improvement rather than aggressive optimism [1] - The recent downturn in Starbucks' stock is attributed to the slow pace of recovery and a lack of recognition from analysts regarding the company's strategy [1] Company Overview - Starbucks operates through various brands, including Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, and Seattle's Best Coffee, selling coffee, tea, and food products [1] - The company's operational strategy has shifted towards employing fewer staff and increasing reliance on technology [1] Analyst Commentary - Cramer noted that Brian Niccol has not encouraged bullish sentiments among analysts, emphasizing that improvements would take time [1] - The decline in stock value is partly blamed on analysts not recognizing that Niccol was not engaging in "underpromising" to "over-deliver" [1] Investment Perspective - While Starbucks is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [1]

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 29, 2025, after market close [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 56 cents, reflecting a 30% decline from 80 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $9.35 billion, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [2] Performance Factors - The company's performance is anticipated to show progress from its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, benefiting from the nationwide rollout of the Green Apron Service model aimed at enhancing service standards and operational efficiency [3] - Seasonal offerings, such as the Pumpkin Spice Latte and new protein cold foam beverages, are expected to drive traffic and ticket growth, with same-store sales predicted to rise 0.2% year-over-year [4] - Internationally, revenues are projected to increase by 7.4% year-over-year to $2 billion, driven by growth in China, the U.K., and Mexico [5] Cost Pressures - Despite positive factors, the bottom line may face pressure from high labor costs, increased operating hours due to the Green Apron Service, and ongoing inflation, with total operating expenses expected to rise 8% year-over-year to $5.47 billion [6] - Softer traffic trends in the U.S., particularly during afternoon hours, and a cautious consumer spending environment may negatively impact performance [7] Earnings Prediction - The model indicates that SBUX may not achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -8.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8][9]