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公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报(2025.04.13):低波策略发挥稳定器作用,本周震荡行情获1.2%超额-20250415
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 06:45
Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid escalating global political and economic uncertainties and significant asset price fluctuations due to tariff tensions, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy maintained its low-volatility defensive nature, serving as a stabilizer in the portfolio. This week, the active equity fund index dropped 3.9%, while the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy only fell 2.7%, achieving an excess return of 1.2% [3]. - The preference for quantitative strategies is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. For A-shares, the short- to medium-term view is upgraded to neutral. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy is expected to offer better cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a balanced offensive and defensive strategy. As the tense situation eases, a shift to more aggressive strategies can be considered [4]. - Overseas markets have experienced a significant short-term decline. The US stock market may be approaching a short-term bottom. Investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate bottom - fishing. In the long run, the US stock market is still expected to reverse and rise, and global investment has strong diversification value [5]. - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy is still worth allocating due to its stability and the potential attention from long - term funds with low - risk preferences. The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy's excess performance awaits a market turnaround. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy has achieved continuous excess returns, and the Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy has long - term investment value despite short - term setbacks [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking 1.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio has long maintained low - volatility characteristics, with significantly better portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy's launch on July 31, 2023, it has continued to show low drawdowns during market fluctuations and achieved good returns during rebounds, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. 1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio has been in operation for a short time. Its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. 1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - After double - screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, the Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark. Since the strategy's launch at the end of July 2023, it has accumulated an excess return of over 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. 1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - As a supplementary investment tool in the A - share equity market, since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the boost of global technology stocks by artificial intelligence, the Overseas Equity Allocation Selected Fund Portfolio has accumulated high - level excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity investment portfolios [21]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas 2.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to select funds with long - term stable returns from actively managed high - equity - position funds. By considering factors such as historical drawdown, volatility, and valuation, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [26]. 2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to meet the needs of investors with higher risk preferences. It selects fund managers with strong Alpha - mining capabilities from actively managed equity funds. Based on the analysis of fund return sources, a portfolio strategy is constructed, which shows a high holding - period win rate in back - testing [27]. 2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - A currency fund selection system is constructed by considering various factors such as management fees, duration, leverage, institutional holding ratio, and deviation. This system helps investors select currency funds with higher returns and lower return volatility [28]. 2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - In QDII funds, based on long - and short - term technical indicators, index momentum, and reversal effects, equity indices of multiple countries or regions are screened. QDII equity funds corresponding to the selected indices are used to construct an overseas market selected portfolio, meeting investors' needs for global allocation [25].
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20250415
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 06:45
2025 年 04 月 15 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/4/15 分析师:卫以诺 分析师登记编码:S0890522110001 电话:021-20321297 邮箱:chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话: 021-20515355 2025/4/9》2025-04-09 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/4/1》2025-04-01 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/25》2025-03-25 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/18》2025-03-18 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/11》2025-03-11 投资要点 分析师:程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述:简单来说,"网格交易"本质上是一种高抛低吸的交易 策略。但与依赖判断长期走势的趋势交易不同,网格交易是一种基于价格波动 的策略,它不预测市场的具体走势,而是利用价格在一定范围内的自然波动来 获取利润,适用于价格频繁波动的市场。在震荡行情中,投资者可以考虑灵活 运用网格交易,通过反复多次地赚取相对较 ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250414
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 09:23
New Stock Issuance - Tian You Wei (证券代码: 732202) issued at a price of 93.50 on April 14, 2025[1] - Yu Long Co., Ltd. (证券代码: 601028) cash option declaration period from April 17 to April 23, 2025[1] - ST Xin Chao (证券代码: 600777) tender offer period from April 8 to May 7, 2025[1] Market Alerts - Kai Mei Te Qi (证券代码: 002549) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - Multiple companies including Zhi Cheng Technology (证券代码: 001270) and Shanghai Ya Shi (证券代码: 603329) have recent announcements regarding abnormal trading activities[1] - A total of 30 companies reported abnormal fluctuations on April 9, 2025, indicating potential market volatility[2] Trading Notifications - Gree Real Estate (证券代码: 600185) and other companies have recent trading notifications as of April 14, 2025[1] - Significant trading activities noted for companies like Zhongdali De (证券代码: 002896) and Huadong Heavy Machine (证券代码: 002685) on April 14, 2025[1]
ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20250414
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 05:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents several ETF - based strategy indices and tracks their performance and holdings on a weekly basis. These indices aim to achieve excess returns relative to the market through different quantitative models and strategies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. For example, the Huabao Research Small - Large Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index had a last - week index return of - 2.89%, a benchmark return of - 3.30%, and an excess return of 0.41% [12]. 1.1. Huabao Research Small - Large Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. It outputs weekly signals to determine the next - week's index strength and decides on holdings accordingly [3][13]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return since 2024 was 16.02%, the excess return in the past month was 0.72%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.41%. Last week, the index return was - 2.89%, and the benchmark (CSI 800) return was - 3.30% [3][12][15]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 100% of the CSI 300 ETF [15]. 1.2. Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 major Barra factors, covering mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style/strategy ETFs [3][15]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return since 2024 was 15.97%, the excess return in the past month was 2.40%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.09%. Last week, the index return was - 3.21%, and the benchmark (CSI 800) return was - 3.30% [3][12][15]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 58.94% of the Dividend Low - Volatility ETF, 21.11% of the CSI 300 ETF, and 19.95% of the Dividend Quality ETF [15]. 1.3. Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including long - and medium - term fundamental analysis, short - term market trend tracking, and analysis of market participants' behavior. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors [20]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return since 2024 was 0.97%, the excess return in the past month was - 1.10%, and the excess return in the past week was 1.40%. Last week, the index return was - 1.91%, and the benchmark (CSI 800) return was - 3.30% [20][23]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 21.93% of the Agriculture ETF, 20.10% of the Bank ETF, 20.06% of the Military Industry ETF, 19.15% of the Non - Ferrous Metals 60 ETF, and 18.76% of the Home Appliance ETF [24]. 1.4. Huabao Research Quantitative Balance Technique ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior to build a quantitative timing system for equity market trend judgment. It also builds a prediction model for market small - large cap styles to adjust equity market positions [24]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return since 2024 was 2.46%, the excess return in the past month was 2.55%, and the excess return in the past week was 1.41%. Last week, the index return was - 1.46%, and the benchmark (CSI 300) return was - 2.87% [24][25][29]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 5.02% of the CSI 1000 ETF, 4.96% of the 500ETF Enhanced, 28.91% of the Enhanced 300 ETF, 25.60% of the Policy Financial Bond ETF, 25.24% of the Short - Term Financing ETF, and 10.26% of the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF [29]. 1.5. Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It tracks and mines hot - spot index target products through strategies such as market sentiment analysis, industry event tracking, investor sentiment and professional views, policy and regulation changes, and historical deduction, and constructs an ETF portfolio to capture market hot - spots [30]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return in the past month was 2.69%, and the excess return in the past week was 1.47%. Last week, the index return was - 2.83%, and the benchmark (CSI All - Share Index) return was - 4.30% [30][34]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 4.34% of the Real Estate ETF, 26.06% of the Hong Kong Consumption ETF, 25.62% of the Soybean Meal ETF, 23.92% of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF, and 20.07% of the 5 - to 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF [34]. 1.6. Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to select effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio [35]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/4/11, the excess return in the past month was 0.07%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.16%. Last week, the index return was 0.19%, and the benchmark (ChinaBond Aggregate Index) return was 0.35% [35][39]. - **Holdings**: As of 2025/4/11, it held 49.92% of the Short - Term Financing ETF, 25.06% of the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, 12.53% of the 5 - to 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, and 12.49% of the Policy Financial Bond ETF [39].
策略周报:关税对A股哪些行业影响较大?-20250413
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-13 13:45
2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 策略周报 分析师:刘芳 分析师登记编码:S0890524100002 电话:021-20321091 邮箱:liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890524080002 电话:021-20321080 邮箱:haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大? 何配置?—策略周报》2025-03-30 2、《科技主线重燃,二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 3、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 4、《市场情绪持续回暖,春季躁动有望 延续 —策略周报》2025-02-16 5、《春节国内外大事速递—策略点评》 2025-02-05 投资要点 分析师:郝一凡 通过(对美出口 / 总出口)*(出口收入 / 总收入)这一公式来测算各行 业对美出口的依赖程度,结果显示 A 股申万一级子行业中,家电、电子、轻工 制造、机械设备、纺织服饰等行业受到美国关税影响程度较大,这些行业的出 口业务对美国市场的依赖程度较高,若美国关税政策持续,相关行业 ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250411
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 07:23
异常波动 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601952&announcementId=122303 | 601952 | 苏垦农发 | 0032&orgId=9900030581&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601933&announcementId=122303 | 601933 | 永辉超市 | 0028&orgId=9900016367&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600965&announcementId=122303 | 600965 | 福成股份 | 0022&orgId=gssh0600965&announcementTi ...
两轮关税周期下的美元异动之谜
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-10 07:13
2025 年 04 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 历史重现却未重演 两轮关税周期下的美元异动之谜 分析师:刘芳 分析师登记编码:S0890524100002 电话:021-20321091 邮箱:liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890524080002 电话:021-20321080 邮箱:haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话: 021-20515355 相关研究报告 投资要点 分析师:郝一凡 本轮美国加征关税剑指全球,覆盖中国及全球 180 多个国家,同时幅度从 10%到 50%不等,打击广度和政策烈度均远超市场预期,导致经济冲击的逻辑 发生逆转:一方面全球关税累积的负面效应直接冲击美国经济,另一方面美国 与原先各个贸易对手之间替代贸易的可能性降低,从而导致美国经济本身遭受 更大的损害。 而美国经济走弱预期也促使投资者押注美联储将提前降息,美债对欧债的利 差减小,美元指数震荡下行。当美国关税大棒无差别挥向全球时,美国货币霸 权基石率先开始自我反噬。 风险提示:经济修复不及预期的风险,政策效果不及预期的风险,地缘风 险,海外经济衰退风险,外 ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250410
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-10 06:43
| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/10 | 星期四 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/10 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601028&announcementId=122303 | 现金选择权 | 601028 | 玉龙股份 | 现金选择权申报期 | :2025年4月17日至2025年4月23日 | 1697&orgId=9900021563&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122299 | 要约收购 | 600777 | ST新潮 | 要约申报期:2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | 2722&orgId ...
基金配置策略报告(2025年4月期):关税扰动加剧,基金组合如何应对?-20250409
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-09 08:43
2025 年 04 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金月报 关税扰动加剧,基金组合如何应对? 基金配置策略报告(2025 年 4 月期) 分析师:孙书娜 分析师登记编码:S0890523070001 电话:021-20321306 邮箱:sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890522090001 电话:021-20321067 邮箱:wanghua@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890524070001 电话:021-20321079 邮箱:fengsishi@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890524040001 电话:021-20321096 邮箱:guxin@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 金配置策略报告(2025 年 3 月期)》 2025-03-13 (2025 年 2 月期)》2025-02-10 3、《政策真空期更为谨慎,债牛未尽 更防波动—基金配置策略报告(2025 年 1 月期)》2025-01-10 销售服务电话: 纯债型基金——尽管在目前利率已在相对低位,但在外部扰动加剧、国内基本面修复形势 ...
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20250409
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-09 08:43
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]